2000 U.S. House Generic Ballot

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U.S. House: 2000 Generic Ballot Test (trend)
All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older.

ABC/Washington Post | American Viewpoint | AP | Bloomberg | CBS/NYT | CNN/Time | Democracy Corps | EMILY's List | Fox/Opinion Dynamics | Gallup/CNN/USA Today | Hotline | Los Angeles Times | McLaughlin | Market Strategies | Newsweek | Pew | Public Opinion Strategies | Research 2000 | Tarrance/Lake | U.S. News | Wirthlin | Zogby

ABC News and The Washington Post
						.
"Thinking about the U.S. House of Representatives election in November, in the congressional district where you live, if that election were being held today, for whom would you vote: the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Neither (vol.)/ Wouldn't Vote (vol.)/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N
	9/4-6/00 ***	47	46	7	LV
	7/20-23/00 ***	46	45	9	1,001RV
	2/24-27/00 ***	45	46	8	RV
	10/28-31/99 *	50	43	7	RV
	10/27-31/99 **	47	41	13	RV
	10/13-17/99 **	48	39	14	RV
	8/30 - 9/2/99 ***	48	44	8	RV
	3/11-14/99 ***	50	41	9	RV
	2/12-14/99 **	48	41	11	RV
	1/28-30/99 **	49	39	12	RV
						.
	* Conducted by ABC News ** Conducted by The Washington Post *** Conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post				LV = likely voters RV = registered voters

American Viewpoint (R)
						.
". . . If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N	MoE
	10/18-22/00	40	41	19	800LV	+/- 3.5
	9/5-7/00	39	39	22	800LV	+/- 3.5
	7/23-25/00	36	39	25	800LV	+/- 3.5
	4/5-9/00	36	40	24	800LV	+/- 3.5
	1/20-25/00	42	39	19	800RV	+/- 3.5
	9/15-21/99	40	38	22	1,000RV	+/- 3.2
						.
					LV = likely voters RV = registered voters

Associated Press Poll conducted by ICR
						.
"If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote Republican or Democratic?"
		Democratic	Republican	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N	MoE
	11/19-23/99	39	33	28	1,023	+/- 3

Bloomberg News Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates
						.
"If the 2000 elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?"
		Democratic	Republican	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N	MoE
	10/23-29/00	43	37	20	LV
	9/7-12/00	44	35	22	773RV
	7/11-17/00	44	33	23	916RV
	5/25 - 6/4/00	40	35	25	1,208	+/- 3
						.
				RV = registered voters

CBS News Poll and, where noted, *CBS News/New York Times* Poll**
.
"If the 2000 election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N	MoE
	11/2-5/00	41	38	21	1,273LV	+/- 3
	11/1-4/00 *	40	39	21	1,158LV	+/- 3
	10/29-31/00	44	37	19	965LV	+/- 3
	10/18-21/00 *	38	38	24	825LV	+/- 3
	10/6-9/00	39	36	25	999LV	+/- 3
	9/9-11/00 *	42	34	22	843RV	+/- 3
	8/18-20/00	45	34	21	956RV	+/- 3
	8/4-6/00	36	37	27	868RV	+/- 3
	7/20-23/00 *	41	37	22	743RV	+/- 4
	5/10-13/00 *	42	39	19	716RV	+/- 4
	3/19-21/00	40	40	20	909RV	+/- 3
	2/12-14/00 *	44	33	23	979RV	+/- 3
	12/13-16/99 *	44	36	20	1,264RV	+/- 3
	11/4-7/99 *	45	38	17	953RV	+/- 3
	9/14-18/99	40	31	29	711
						.
	* Conducted with The New York Times			RV = registered voters

*CNN/Time* Poll** conducted by Yankelovich Partners
.
"If the election for Congress were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in your district or for the Republican candidate?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N	MoE
	10/25-26/00	46	45	9	1,076LV	+/- 3
	10/12-13/00	42	48	10	603LV	+/- 4
	10/4-5/00	43	42	15	636LV	+/- 3.9
	8/9-10/00	44	47	9	781LV	+/- 3.5
	7/26-27/00	44	48	8	684LV	+/- 3.5
	6/14-15/00	42	48	10	589LV	+/- 4
	3/8-9/00	50	43	7	1,239RV	+/- 2.8
	1/12-13/00	48	37	15	1,276RV	+/- 3
	1/5-6/00	46	41	13	1,319RV	+/- 3
						.
					LV = likely voters RV = registered voters

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Research (D)
.
"If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N	MoE
	10/30-31/00	49	44	6	1,016LV	+/- 3.1
	10/24-25/00	47	42	10	998LV	+/- 3.1
	10/9-10/00	48	42	9	1,027LV	+/- 3.1
	9/27-30/00	48	43	8	1,000LV	+/- 3.1
	9/4-9/00	46	43	12	1,019LV	+/- 3.1
	8/8-10/00	43	44	13	1,007LV	+/- 3.1
	3/13-15/00	46	43	11	1,000LV	+/- 3.1
	11/29 - 12/1/99	45	44	11	989LV	+/- 3.1
	10/5-12/99	47	42	11	1,000LV	+/- 3.1
						.
					LV = likely voters

EMILY's List poll conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang (D) and Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D)
						.
"If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If "Undecided": "Well, would you lean more toward the Democrat or the Republican at this time?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N
	9/9-13/00 *	41	38	21	1,267LV
	3/21-24/00 *	39	38	23	1,217LV
	12/7-14/99 *	38	35	27	1,202LV
						.
	* Includes an oversample of women, weighted to their proportion of the electorate.				LV = likely voters

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll
							.
"If the year 2000 congressional elections were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate in your district or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If "Undecided": "Well, if you had to vote, which way would you lean?" 11/1-2/00 wording: "In the election for congressional representative in your district next Tuesday . . . ?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other (vol.)	Undecided
		%	%	%	%	N	MoE
	11/1-2/00	45	42	-	13	1,000LV	+/- 3
	9/6-7/00	41	40	-	19	900LV	+/- 3
	5/24-25/00	39	42	-	19	900RV	+/- 3
	1/12-13/00	36	42	-	22	902RV	+/- 3
	12/6-7/99	38	39	-	23	902RV	+/- 3
	11/17-18/99	36	42	-	22	900RV	+/- 3
	10/20-21/99	40	41	-	19	904RV	+/- 3
	9/22-23/99	37	38	-	25	900RV	+/- 3
	9/8-9/99	36	40	-	24	904RV	+/- 3
	8/11-12/99	35	48	-	17	903RV	+/- 3
	6/23-24/99	38	43	3	16	908RV	+/- 3
						.	.
						LV = likely voters RV = registered voters

*Gallup/CNN/USA Today* Poll**
						.
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district [rotate]: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If "Undecided": "As of today, do you lean more to [rotate] the Democratic Party's candidate or to the Republican Party's candidate?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N	MoE
	11/5-6/00 #	49	45	6	2,350LV	+/- 2
	11/4-5/00 #	48	47	5	2,386LV	+/- 2
	10/26-28/00 #	45	49	6	1,858LV	+/- 3
	10/23-25/00 #	44	47	9	LV
	10/16-18/00 #	45	50	5	706LV	+/- 4
	10/13-15/00 #	47	46	7	756LV	+/- 4
	9/4-6/00 #	46	46	8	777LV	+/- 4
	8/18-19/00	48	46	6	697LV	+/- 4
	8/4-5/00	47	48	5	653LV	+/- 4
	7/25-26/00	47	47	6	632LV	+/- 4
	6/6-7/00	48	46	6	528LV	+/- 5
	3/10-12/00	45	48	7	502LV	+/- 5
	2/4-6/00	44	49	7	483LV	+/- 5
	1/17-19/00	46	45	9	745LV	+/- 4
	1/13-16/00	42	48	10	512LV	+/- 5
	1/7-10/00	49	45	6	814LV	+/- 4
	11/18-21/99	47	43	10	854RV
	9/10-14/99	46	42	10	1,698	+/- 3
	9/10-14/99	45	47	8	948LV
	2/12-13/99	48	37	15	679V
						.
	@ Vote projection, with undecideds allocated # Tracking poll				RV = registered voters LV = likely voters V = regular voters

Hotline Bullseye Poll conducted by the polling company (R) and Global Strategy Group (D)
.
"If the general election for your United States House of Representative [sic] were held tomorrow, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate all other things being equal?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N
	10/31 - 11/2/00	39	42	19	1,000LV
	9/5-7/00	41	36	24	1,010LV
	7/8-10/00	41	36	23	1,001LV
	5/22-24/00	41	32	27	1,011LV
						.
"If the general election for your United States congressional representative were held tomorrow, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate, all other things being equal?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N
	4/15-18/00	41	42	17	1,000LV
						.
					LV = likely voters

Los Angeles Times Poll
						.
"If the election for Congress were being held today, which party would you like to see win in this congressional district: the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"
		Democratic	Republican	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N	MoE
	9/23-25/00	47	45	8	694LV	+/- 4
						.
					LV = likely voters

Market Strategies (R)
.
"If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you be voting for [rotate:] the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate from your district?" If undecided/refused: "Which way do you lean, toward [rotate:] the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N
	9/7-9/99 *	42	41	16	800RV
	2/26-28/99	42	36	22	675RV
						.
	* Conducted for the Republican National Committee.				RV = registered voters

John McLaughlin & Associates (R)
.
"Thinking ahead to this year's election for U.S. Congress in your district, for whom are you more likely to vote: the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N
	9/15-17/00	43	44	13	1,000LV
	6/4-5/00	35	39	26	1,000LV
						.
					LV = likely voters

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates
.
"If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for [rotate:] the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If no choice: "As of today, do you lean more to the Republican or the Democrat?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N	MoE
	10/25-27/00	46	44	10	818LV	+/- 4
	10/18-20/00	47	43	10	800LV	+/- 4
	10/12-13/00	46	44	10	803LV	+/- 4
	9/20-22/00	46	46	8	766LV	+/- 4
	8/17-18/00	51	40	9	806RV	+/- 4
	8/10-11/00	44	45	11	586RV	+/- 5
						.
				LV = likely voters RV = registered voters

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates
.
"If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If no choice: "As of today, do you lean more to the Republican or the Democrat?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N
	11/2-5/00	48	42	10	1,829RV
	11/1-4/00	47	43	10	1,805RV
	10/4-8/00	47	43	10	1,009RV
	7/19-23/00	47	43	10	918RV
	2/9-14/00	47	44	9	971RV
	10/7-11/99	49	43	8	1,134RV
	6/9-13/99	50	40	10	851RV
						.
					RV = registered voters

Public Opinion Strategies (R)
						.
Generic House Ballot Test
		Democratic	Republican	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N	MoE
	8/20-22/00	45	46	9	800LV	+/- 3.5
						.
					LV = likely voters

Research 2000 Poll
						.
"If the election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you vote for a Democratic candidate or a Republican candidate?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Undecided
		%	%	%	N
	7/16-19/00	45	38	17	807LV
						.
					LV = likely voters

Tarrance Group (R)/Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D)/Voter.com/Battleground Survey
						.
"If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for [rotate:] the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate in your district?" If "Undecided": "And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Undecided
		%	%	%	N
#	11/5-6/00	44	42	15	1,000LV
#	11/1-2, 5/00	42	42	16	1,000LV
#	10/30 - 11/2/00	41	42	17	1,000LV
#	10/29 - 11/1/00	43	41	17	1,000LV
#	10/26, 29-31/00	43	40	18	1,000LV
#	10/25-26, 29-30/00	41	39	20	1,000LV
#	10/24-26, 29/00	42	38	20	1,000LV
#	10/23-26/00	42	39	19	1,000LV
#	10/22-25/00	42	39	19	1,000LV
#	10/19, 22-24/00	42	40	18	1,000LV
#	10/18-19, 22-23/00	42	40	18	1,000LV
#	10/17-19, 22/00	41	41	18	1,000LV
#	10/16-19/00	43	39	18	1,000LV
#	10/15-18/00	43	40	18	1,000LV
#	10/12, 15-17/00	43	39	19	1,000LV
#	10/11-12, 15-16/00	43	39	19	1,000LV
#	10/10-12, 15/00	41	39	20	1,000LV
#	10/9-12/00	42	39	20	1,000LV
#	10/8-11/00	41	39	20	1,000LV
#	10/5, 8-10/00	40	39	20	1,000LV
#	10/4-5, 8-9/00	41	39	20	1,000LV
#	10/3-5, 8/00	39	40	21	1,000LV
#	10/2-5/00	40	39	21	1,000LV
#	10/1-4/00	39	38	22	1,000LV
#	9/28, 10/1-3/00	39	39	23	1,000LV
#	9/27-28, 10/1-2/00	40	37	24	1,000LV
#	9/26-28, 10/1/00	39	37	24	1,000LV
#	9/25-28/00	39	39	23	1,000LV
#	9/24-27/00	40	38	22	1,000LV
#	9/21, 24-26/00	39	40	21	1,000LV
#	9/20-21, 24-25/00	38	41	21	1,000LV
#	9/19-21, 24/00	36	41	23	1,000LV
#	9/18-21/00	36	40	25	1,000LV
#	9/17-20/00	37	38	25	1,000LV
#	9/14, 17-19/00	39	38	23	1,000LV
#	9/13-14, 17-18/00	39	38	23	1,000LV
#	9/12-14, 17/00	38	39	24	1,000LV
#	9/11-14/00	38	38	24	1,000LV
#	9/10-13/00	39	38	24	1,000LV
#	9/7, 10-12/00	39	38	23	1,000LV
#	9/6-7, 10-11/00	41	37	22	1,000LV
#	9/5-7, 10/00	40	38	22	1,000LV
#	8/16-17/00	38	37	25	1,000LV
#	8/15-16/00	39	38	23	1,000LV
#	8/14-15/00	39	38	23	1,000LV
#	8/13-14/00	37	38	25	1,000LV
#	8/2-3/00	39	36	25	1,000LV
#	8/1-2/00	39	36	25	1,000LV
#	7/31 - 8/1/00	39	38	23	1,000LV
#	7/30-31/00	38	37	25	1,000LV
	6/11-13/00	42	40	18	1,000LV
	5/1-3/00	41	41	19	1,000LV
	3/12-13/00	42	41	18	1,000LV
	1/3-5/00	37	39	24	1,000LV
	6/6-8/99	39	39	22	1,000LV
						.
	# Tracking poll				LV = likely voters

U.S. News & World Report Poll conducted by the Tarrance Group (R) and Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D)
						.
"There will be elections for U.S. Congress in the year 2000. If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for [rotate] the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate in your district?" If undecided: "And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Neither (vol.)/ Wouldn't Vote (vol.)/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N
	2/7-8/99	44	38	19	800RV
						.
					RV = registered voters

Wirthlin Worldwide (R)
					.
"If the election for Congress were being held today, would you be voting for [rotate] the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?"
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N
	8/6-9/99	43	41	16	789RV
	4/9-12/99	42	40	19	1,002
					.
	4/99 wording: "If the November 2000 election . . . ."			RV = registered voters

Zogby International, including Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Tracking Poll
						.
Generic House Ballot Test:
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%	N	MoE
#sic	10/22-25/00	45	38	17	1,209LV	+/- 3.2
#	10/22-24/00	44	39	17	LV	+/- 3.2
#	10/21-23/00	41	40	19	1,206LV	+/- 3.2
#	10/20-22/00	40	42	18	1,204LV	+/- 3.2
#	10/19-21/00	39	41	20	1,206LV	+/- 3.2
	9/22-24/00	40	36	24	1,004LV	+/- 3.2
	9/10-12/00	41	36	23	1,005LV	+/- 3.2
	9/4-6/00	38	37	25	1,001LV	+/- 3.2
	8/18-20/00	41	38	21	1,004LV	+/- 3.2
	8/11-13/00	38	36	26	1,005LV	+/- 3.2
	8/4-6/00	33	41	26	1,000LV	+/- 3.2
	7/28-30/00	36	38	26	1,004LV	+/- 3.2
	7/14-17/00	37	37	26	890LV	+/- 3.4
	6/16-20/00	35	34	31	1,011LV	+/- 3.2
	6/9-12/00	35	35	30	1,012LV	+/- 3.2
	5/29-31/00	44	36	20	1,002LV	+/- 3.2
	5/10-13/00	36	36	28	1,016LV	+/- 3.2
	4/1-4/00	38	34	28	842LV	+/- 3.5
	3/8-10/00	38	37	25	879LV	+/- 3.4
	2/4-6/00	39	36	25	1,024LV	+/- 3.2
	11/20-22/99	32	33	35	880LV
	8/99	34	32	34	LV
	4/15-17/99	39	40	21	705LV
	3/4-7/99	41	38	21	908LV
	1/26-28/99	39	40	21	923LV
						.
	# Tracking poll				LV = likely voters

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