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ABC News: The Numbers 5/30
What the Heck Happened
The approaching end of the primary season prompts a terrific question: What the heck happened? You'll hear answers from a lot of sources. But a beautiful thing about the internet is that you can also dig out some of your own conclusions – or fact-check what you’re hearing from others – by going directly to the source. With that in mind we’ve posted full exit poll results from each state contest in which they were conducted. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 5/30
A Puerto Rico Lookahead
If Hillary Clinton does well in Puerto Rico on Sunday, it shouldn’t be a surprise: She’s been strong among Hispanic Democrats all year, a group that lifted her to victory notably in the California and Texas primaries; and likewise among Catholics. Put the two together – Hispanic Catholic voters – and you’ve got a powerful Clinton advantage. . . .

Pew Research Center 5/29
McCain's Negatives Political, Obama's Personal
As the end of the primary season draws near, Barack Obama is the clear favorite of Democratic voters for their party's presidential nomination. . . . But when the Illinois Democrat is tested against John McCain in a general election matchup, he now runs about even against the presumptive Republican nominee. . . .

Democracy Corps (pdf) 5/29
Obama Emerging Ahead in Close Race
As the Democratic nomination contest comes to an end and candidates shift their focus to the general election, both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are emerging comparably ahead of John McCain in a close race for the White House. . . .

UVA: Alan I. Abramowitz 5/29
Electoral Barometer Shows Democratic Advantage
... Three indicators of the national political climate have accurately predicted the outcomes of presidential elections since the end of World War II: the incumbent president's approval rating at mid-year, the growth rate of the economy during the second quarter of the election year, and the length of time the president's party has held the White House. . . .

UVA: Rhodes Cook 5/29
The 'Controversial' Caucuses
Maybe one of the most intriguing -- and nefarious -- aspects of this long-running Democratic presidential campaign is that the legitimacy of the system itself has come into question. Doubts, to be sure, have been raised about the role of the unelected "superdelegates." But the campaign of Hillary Clinton has fingered a different villain for its greatest contempt -- namely, the caucuses, which it claims are undemocratic as well as unrepresentative. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 5/28
Gay Marriage: The California Questions
In the wake of this month's state Supreme Court ruling, do most Californians support gay marriage? It depends -- and therein lies a cautionary tale in understanding poll results. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 5/28
Where Are The 'Big' Issues?
The Democratic presidential campaigns of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton seem to have become all about discussions of their personal qualities -- honesty, experience, and judgment. The issues that have gained the most coverage and attention are not the ones that people cite as the most important. Controversies over who endorsed whom, or what a candidate may or may not have said, or even who each candidate knows and likes have somehow supplanted the war in Iraq, the mortgage crisis, and health care. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 5/27
Democratic Voter Groups: A Second Look
Voter-group analysis in the Democratic contest has been flying thick and fast lately. Among the arguments: Barack Obama has a problem with white voters. And/or with Jewish voters. And/or with supporters of Hillary Clinton. Each can use a second look. . . .

New Yorker: George Packer 5/26
The Fall of Conservatism
The era of American politics that has been dying before our eyes was born in 1966. That January, a twenty-seven-year-old editorial writer for the St. Louis Globe-Democrat named Patrick Buchanan went to work for Richard Nixon, who was just beginning the most improbable political comeback in American history. . . .

Newsweek: Evan Thomas 5/26
Memo to Senator Obama
Race is a difficult subject to talk and write about. Although the blogosphere is rarely shy, mainstream journalists often tread lightly for fear of giving offense or indulging in stereotypes. Political candidates sometimes slyly play the race card, but rarely overtly. Not eager to call attention to race as an issue, the Obama campaign plays it down as a factor in the election. But if an Obama adviser were writing an honest memo to the candidate, here's how it might read. . . .

New York Times: John Harwood 5/26
The White Working Class: Forgotten Voters No More
Ruy Teixeira, a Democratic analyst of voting trends, wrote the book on the core issue in the endgame of the party's nomination fight. Its title is "America's Forgotten Majority: Why the White Working Class Still Matters." One might conclude that Mr. Teixeira is troubled by Senator Barack Obama's performance in recent primaries against Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton among the voters known by nicknames like Joe Sixpack or Nascar Dad or Waitress Mom. Actually, he is not. . . .

Pew Research Center: Scott Keeter 5/23
Cell Phones and Polling
Last week the National Center for Health Statistics released new government estimates of the number of Americans who can now be reached only by a cell phone -- an estimated 14.5% of all adults, and significantly larger percentages in certain population subgroups such as young people and Hispanics. The growing number of wireless-only households poses a serious challenge to survey research, much of which relies upon landline surveys to reach respondents. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 5/23
McCain: Health and Age
The release today of John McCain’s health records raises again the question of whether his age can hurt him in the 2008 campaign. The best answer: You bet. . . .

ABC News 5/21
Socioeconomics, Not Race, Drives Vote
Tuesday's Democratic primaries told a tale of two states, with Southern whites overwhelmingly rejecting Barack Obama in Kentucky while an equally white electorate in Oregon brought differing political views and socioeconomic profiles to the table. . . .

Associated Press 5/21
Results from KY, OR Dem primary polls
Results from an exit poll conducted for The Associated Press and television networks in Kentucky's Democratic presidential primary Tuesday, and preliminary data from a telephone poll during the past week in Oregon's vote-by-mail primary. . . .

Salon: Dee Davis 5/20
Obama's "Appalachian problem"
In analyzing the returns from last week's West Virginia Democratic primary, a phalanx of reporters and commentators have explained Hillary Clinton’s landslide victory by pointing out that West Virginians are a special set of Democrats, white, low income, and under-educated. . . . However, the unnerving truth for the erstwhile party of Jefferson may be that Appalachia, for all its legend and lore, is not that different politically from the rest of the small-town-and-rural parts of the country where 60 million of us live. And that could mean trouble for the fall. . . .

New York Times 5/19
Oregon Still Embraces the Unconventional
HOOD RIVER, Ore. -- The Obama '08 signs end roughly where the orchards begin. . . . Oregon is well known for the sharp divide between its more liberal and populated west and its rural east. That tension has often made statewide races close. Yet while the farmers who once dominated this part of Oregon still own much of the land, they no longer own most of the vote. . . .

Wall Street Journal: The Numbers Guy 5/19
Cellphone Surveys Get a Boost
About 63 million American adults either don’t have a landline at home or hardly use one, according to the government’s latest estimate released last week. The steady displacement of landline usage by cellphones is the latest development that could push more pollsters to try to reach Americans on their cellphones. . . .

NPR 5/18
Rural Voters Not Reliably Republican in 2008
Overwhelming support in the nation's least populated counties was key to Republican victories in the last two presidential elections. But a new bipartisan survey indicates rural voters are not so reliably Republican in 2008. . . .

New York Times: Charles M. Blow 5/17
Skirting Appalachia
As Hillary Clinton's rout in West Virginia underscores, Appalachia is not Obama country. Of 410 counties in the region, which stretches from New York to Mississippi, Barack Obama has won only 48 (12 percent) so far. Of the counties he has lost, nearly 80 percent have been by a margin of more than 2 to 1. The region is whiter, poorer, older, more rural and less educated than the rest of the country, and seems to be voting like a bloc. . . .

Salon: Paul Maslin 5/17
How will Barack Obama get to 270?
Thanks to John Adams and James Madison, an American presidential election really does begin and end with the Electoral College. . . . To figure out how Obama can assemble the magic 270, then, let's look at the 17 states where this fall's outcome is not a mortal lock. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 5/16
Counting the Vote
In an interview with Charlie Gibson this week, Hillary Clinton contended that she's ahead in the popular vote -- a critical claim in her last-ditch attempt to win over super delegates. The problem: It's arguably not so. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 5/16
How Does Age Affect Polls?
... We have long believed that the older you are, the more likely you are to have strongly-held opinions. A lifetime of thinking about political issues should make opinions part of your identity -- if you think about politics at all. But a new article by a team of American, Canadian and German researchers suggests a different reason for why question order has less of an effect on older respondents. . . .

New York Times 5/16
In the South, a Force to Challenge the GOP
The sharp surge in black turnout that Senator Barack Obama has helped to generate in recent primaries and Congressional races could signal a threat this fall to the longtime Republican dominance of the South, according to politicians and voting experts. . . .

NPR 5/15
U.S. Is Headed in the Wrong Direction
Americans are feeling pessimistic about the direction the country is heading, a new bipartisan NPR poll suggests. They're increasingly leaning toward alignment with the Democratic Party and divided over their choices for president in the fall. . . .

UVA: Alan I. Abramowitz 5/15
Not Your Father's (or Mother's) Democratic Party
Forget about soccer moms and NASCAR dads. The key voting bloc in 2008 is the white working class. According to the new conventional wisdom of American politics, the presidential candidate who can win the support of white working class voters will have the inside track on becoming the next president of the United States. . . .

UVA: Rhodes Cook 5/15
Obama's Next Challenge
As Barack Obama prepares to move from the primary to the general election phase of the 2008 presidential election, he faces a new challenge which combines both - to bring many of the states where he suffered primary losses this winter and spring into the Democratic column this fall. . . .

Washington Post 5/14
Burdened by the Weight of Inflation
Nearly seven in 10 Americans are worried about maintaining their standard of living, as concern has spiked higher in just the past five months, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Soaring consumer prices are a major challenge, with many people struggling under the weight of the rising costs of fuel, food and health care. . . .

ABC News 5/14
The Race Factor in West Virginia
A confluence of groups inclined toward Hillary Clinton gave her an easy victory in the West Virginia primary, with less-educated, lower-income whites predominating in this Southern state. In a trouble sign for delegate-leader Barack Obama, barely more than half said they'd vote for him in November if he's the party's nominee. . . .

Los Angeles Times 5/14
Most don't see economy improving soon
Most Americans see little hope that the economy will improve in the next six months, and many also are decidedly pessimistic about the direction of oil prices and inflation, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll released today. The views on inflation could become troublesome for the Federal Reserve: If more Americans believe inflation will worsen there is a risk of those expectations becoming self-fulfilling. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 5/13
Obama and Working-Class Whites
The anticipated outcome of today's contest in West Virginia is prompting a fresh review of Barack Obama's difficulties winning support from working-class white voters in this year's Democratic primaries. One question: The extent to which it does or doesn't predict problems for Obama if he's the party's nominee in November. . . .

AP 5/13
Networks, AP sue in South Dakota over exit polling
The three major networks, CNN, Fox News and The Associated Press filed a lawsuit Monday asking a federal judge to strike down a South Dakota law that prevents exit polling within 100 feet of a voting place. The law violates the First Amendment because it restricts the news organizations' speech and commentary about the political process and limits their opportunities to gather information about that process, the lawsuit said. . . .

Democracy Corps 5/13
Youth for the Win!
... Young voters at this point are as supportive of Democrats as they were in 2004 and 2006. Democratic identification is stable and young people’s support for a generic Democratic candidate for President stands at 59 to 32 percent, a margin which exceeds young voters’ Democratic performance in the 2006 elections. There is every reason for Democrats to seek an even bigger youth margin in 2008. . . .

ABC News 5/13
Advantage Obama
Pushing back against political punditry, more than six in 10 Democrats say there's no rush for Hillary Clinton to leave the presidential race, even as Barack Obama consolidates his support for the nomination and scores solidly in general-election tests. . . .

ABC News 5/12
Bush Hits New Low as 'Wrong Track' Rises
Public disgruntlement neared a record high and President Bush slipped to his career low in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. Eighty-two percent of Americans now say the country's seriously off on the wrong track, up 10 points in the last year to a point from its record high in polls since 1973. And 31 percent approve of Bush's job performance overall, while 66 percent disapprove. . . .

Politico 5/12
The Obama campaign's 'unsung hero'
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton had just declared victory in the Nevada caucuses when most campaign reporters heard Jeffrey Berman's voice for the first and only time. Berman, Sen. Barack Obama's director of delegate selection, chimed in during a conference call with the media to make an unexpected case: Despite Clinton’s popular vote victory in Nevada and an authoritative Associated Press count giving Clinton the edge in the Nevada delegate count, Obama had actually won the state by the only measure that mattered. . . .

New York Times: Willam Galston & Pietro Nivola 5/11
Vote Like Thy Neighbor
The buzz these days is that American politics may be entering a "postpartisan" era, as a new generation finds the old ideological quarrels among baby boomers to be increasingly irrelevant. In reality, matters are not so simple. Far from being postpartisan, today's young adults are significantly more likely to identify as Democrats than were their predecessors. . . .

New York Times: Jack Bass 5/11
In Dixie, Signs of a Rising Biracial Politics
Across the South, Barack Obama's smashing primary victory in North Carolina last week reflects a new reality -- a half-century of rising Republican red tide has crested, with signs of receding. . . .

Wall Street Journal: Gerald Seib and John Harwood 5/10
America's Race to the Middle
The long, fascinating spectacle of the presidential primaries has all but obscured their potential impact on American politics: Campaign 2008 may break Washington's gridlock by reviving the long-dormant political center. . . .

Bloomberg 5/10
Clinton, Obama Top McCain on Handling the Economy
Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama get higher marks than Republican John McCain from voters on handling the U.S. economy, which Americans now consider the nation's top issue. A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey shows Clinton is favored by 32 percent of registered voters as the presidential candidate best equipped to manage the economy, followed by Obama at 26 percent and McCain with 23 percent. . . .

New York Times: Andrew Kohut 5/9
The Widening Gap
The phrase "generation gap" came into vogue in the 1960s as a way of describing the wide gulf in values, beliefs and lifestyles that emerged between baby boomers and their parents and grandparents. Indeed, this difference between younger and older people played out sometimes turbulently in the '60s in virtually all aspects of life, including the ballot box. . . .

Washington Post: Behind the Numbers 5/8
Clinton's Broader Base?
Hillary Clinton's comments to USA Today arguing that her support among white voters in the primaries provides her with a broader base of support have set the blogosphere abuzz. . . .

Gallup 5/8
Obama's Support Similar to Kerry's in 2004
Barack Obama's current level of support among white voters in a head-to-head matchup against John McCain is no worse than John Kerry's margin of support among whites against George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election. . . .

Salon: Dan Conley 5/8
What does Hillary want?
From watching the coverage of the 2008 race, you'd think that the Democratic Party has never been down this road before -- divided along racial lines, mired in a bitter personal battle, seemingly incapable of repairing the divisions in time to defeat the Republicans. If you believe this, then you probably didn't experience the 1994 U.S. Senate race in Virginia. . . .

CBS News 5/7
Non-Democrats Influenced IN, NC Vote
Sen. Barack Obama sailed to an easy victory in North Carolina, while Sen. Hillary Clinton edged him out in Indiana. National exit polls conducted for CBS News by Edison/Mitofsky. Research show that each candidate retained the bases they have held throughout the primary season, with state characteristics making most of the difference. . . .

ABC News 5/7
White Working-Class vs. Change in IN; Blacks Lift Obama to NC Victory
A divided electorate made for a close contest in the Indiana Democratic primary, where working-class whites and controversy over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright worked to Hillary Clinton's advantage, while liberals, new voters and the mantle of "change" boosted Barack Obama. . . .

AP 5/7
Race key in NC, IN but Wright's impact mixed
Race again played a pivotal role in Tuesday's Democratic presidential clashes, as whites in Indiana and North Carolina leaned solidly toward Hillary Rodham Clinton and blacks voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama, exit polls showed. Half the voters said they were influenced by the focus on Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 5/6
Why Do Polls Yield Different Results?
If polls that seem to be similar yield different results, you've got to find out why. And this week, we've seen different results from several polls that apparently asked the same "horserace" question: Who's ahead -- Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama? . . .

Salon: Thomas F. Schaller 5/6
How Hillary Clinton botched the black vote
If Hillary Clinton fails to wrest the Democratic presidential nomination from Barack Obama, there will be plenty of second-guessing about how she ran her campaign. . . . [O]ne little-discussed factor (with direct or indirect relation to all of the above) appears to have had fatal consequences for Clinton's campaign: She failed to mount a strong enough challenge to Obama's claim on the African-American vote. . . .

Pew Research Center 5/6
Pope Benedict's Image Improves Following U.S. Visit
Following his first visit to the United States as spiritual leader of the world's Catholics, Pope Benedict XVI is viewed more favorably than he was a few weeks before his trip. Currently, 61% of Americans say they have a favorable impression of the pope, up from 52% in late March. . . .

Democracy Corps 5/5
The MySpace Election
Two outcomes are almost certain in 2008 -- Democrats will win the youth vote and young people will vote in record numbers. What is less obvious is the size of the margin and the scale of their participation. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 5/5
Battling Data: What Gives?
There were at least a few crossed eyes today over conflicting data and analysis in the latest New York Times/CBS and USA Today/Gallup polls. We share your pain. . . . Before we get into what gives, we'll use this as an opportunity to repeat our long-standing advice to de-emphasize the horse race in pre-election polls. It is lowest-common-denominator reporting. And in poll-to-poll comparisons it's the single most unstable measure we see. . . .

New York Times: Rhodes Cook 5/5
Popular Mechanics
While Hillary Clinton probably can't catch Barack Obama in the race for most pledged delegates at the Democratic presidential nominating convention, she does have a shot at overtaking him in the popular vote. Whoever triumphs in that symbolic total will have a persuasive argument to use with the wavering superdelegates who are likely to decide the race this summer. . . .

New York Times 5/5
Voters Say Wright Could Weigh on Obama
A majority of American voters say the furor over the relationship between Senator Barack Obama and his former pastor has not affected their opinion of Mr. Obama, but a substantial number say it could influence voters this fall should he be the Democratic presidential nominee, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll. . . .

New York Times: John Harwood 5/4
A Fault Line That Haunts the Democrats
AS this historic Democratic primary season enters its next grueling phase, the party has become embroiled in a conflict between antagonists who would seem better cast as allies. Senator Barack Obama is a black candidate who has built his career on de-emphasizing race, while Senator Hillary Clinton is a white liberal who has been sensitive to minorities, and the issues facing them, during her long years of political activism. . . .

National Journal: Ronald Brownstein 5/3
When Blue Collars Are a Tight Fit
After Hillary Rodham Clinton's decisive win in last week's Pennsylvania primary, Barack Obama and his advisers quickly offered a series of explanations for her resounding advantage among working-class white voters there. In rapid fire, Obama and his team insisted that he had carried those voters in many other states, was improving his performance among them, and did not need them to win a general election; to the extent he faced a problem at all, Obama declared, the difficulty was age and not class. But exit polls from this year's Democratic primaries show that almost all of those assertions are debatable and some are flat-out wrong. . . .

Washington Post: Behind the Numbers 5/3
White Catholics for Clinton: A Demographic Look
Throughout the Democratic party's nomination process, white Catholics have consistently been a strong point for Hillary Clinton, a group among which she tops or ties Barack Obama in almost every single state where exit polling has measured their votes. Exit polling conducted in Pennsylvania shows that Clinton's edge with Catholics is not a function of the demographic makeup of Catholics themselves, but instead cuts across demographic lines. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 5/2
Why Question Order Changes Poll Results
Polling seems easy. Write questions. Make sure the options balance, and that the choices cover the range of options. Train interviewers to ask the questions as written, and tally the results. But if you don't also ask those questions in the right order, things can get complicated. . . .

Pew Research Center 5/2
Obama's Image Slips, His Lead Over Clinton Disappears
Democratic voters are not as positive about Barack Obama as they were a month ago. Somewhat smaller percentages of Democrats describe Obama in favorable terms, and he has lost his lead over Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination. Nationally, Democratic voters are about evenly divided between Obama and Clinton; Obama holds a slight 47% to 45% edge. . . .

UVA: Alan I. Abramowitz 5/1
Societal trends reshaping American electorate
Discussions of the current political situation and comparisons between the 2008 election and earlier contests frequently overlook a crucial fact. As a result of changes in American society, today's electorate is very different from the electorate of twenty, thirty, or forty years ago. Three long-term trends have been especially significant in this regard: increasing racial diversity, declining rates of marriage, and changes in religious beliefs. . . .

New York Times 5/1
Primary Loss and Furor Over Ex-Pastor Hurt Obama
Senator Barack Obama's aura of inevitability in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination has diminished after his loss in the Pennsylvania primary and amid the furor over his former pastor, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll. . . .

MSNBC 5/1
Bush a liability for McCain
Sen. Barack Obama’s ties to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright could hurt his presidential hopes. So could his comment about "bitter" small-town America clinging to guns and religion. And Americans might question Sen. Hillary Clinton’s honesty and trustworthiness. But according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, the bigger problem appears to be John McCain's ties to President Bush. . . .

Public Agenda 4/30
Energy, Economy New Focal Points for Anxiety
It's been more than 15 years since Bill Clinton’s campaign advisors confidently declared "it's the economy, stupid," to sum up the public's mood of the moment. For the past few years, foreign policy and the war in Iraq in particular have been at the forefront of public concern. But the economy is reasserting itself as a priority -- and economic concerns are shaping how the public views foreign policy. . . .

ABC News 4/30
Confidence at Another 2008 Low
Consumer confidence reached another new low for the year this week, moving within sight of its lowest in 22 years of weekly ABC News surveys. . . .

Kaiser Family Foundation 4/29
Health Care Near Top of Economic Woes
Health care costs rank among Americans' top personal economic problems, and their struggles to deal with those costs have affected both their financial well-being and their family's health care, a new Kaiser Family Foundation poll finds. . . .

Associated Press 4/29
Clinton leads McCain by 9 points
Hillary Rodham Clinton now leads John McCain by 9 points in a head-to-head presidential matchup, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll that bolsters her argument that she is more electable than Democratic rival Barack Obama. Obama and Republican McCain are running about even. . . .

Field Poll (pdf) 4/28
CA: Health Care Insecurities
California voters report growing insecurities about the workings of the state's health care system according to a new Field Health Policy Survey, and nearly three in four (73%) say they are concerned about the state's failure to enact health reform legislation. . . .

Pew Research Center 4/28
Gen Dems: Party's Advantage Among Young Widens
Trends in the opinions of America's youngest voters are often a barometer of shifting political winds. And that appears to be the case in 2008. The current generation of young voters, who came of age during the George W. Bush years, is leading the way in giving the Democrats a wide advantage in party identification, just as the previous generation of young people who grew up in the Reagan years -- Generation X -- fueled the Republican surge of the mid-1990's. . . .

Newsweek 4/26
McCain's Hidden Advantage
If there was any surprise in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, it was that recent events had virtually no effect on the result. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton could have stayed home for the past month and a half and the outcome would have been essentially the same. . . .

New York Times 4/26
Rifts Mend, Unless Identity Politics Is a Different Stripe
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's victory last week in the Pennsylvania presidential primary bought Mrs. Clinton time, but it's what might fill the time that troubles Democrats: an increasingly sharp dialogue between core Democratic constituencies -- blacks and a wide swath of women. . . .

Sierra Club 4/25
Hispanic Voters Concerned about Environment
Hispanic voters are overwhelmingly concerned about energy, global warming and environmental issues and are willing to take action to find solutions, according to results of a Sierra Club-sponsored national poll released today and conducted by Bendixen & Associates. . . .

Washington Post: Behind the Numbers 4/25
A Democratic Edge on Top Issues
The economy and the situation in Iraq have long been the public's top two priorities for this year's presidential election, and on both, more Americans said they think a Democratic president would do a better job handling the issue than a Republican. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 4/25
Age Gap May Start Younger Than Thought
Age and education do affect the vote. Many of Barack Obama’s wins have been fueled by big turnouts from younger voters, who have come out strongly for him. In many states, they also increased their share of the total votes cast. . . .

New Republic: Alan I. Abramowitz 4/25
Cheer Up, Democrats!
It's all over but the shouting. Even though the Democratic Convention is still four months away and the presidential election is more than six months off, Barack Obama might as well admit that John McCain will beat him so squarely that he might as well start working on his concession speech. At least that's what you'd assume if you've been reading the latest musings of the Washington commentariat, which have only amplified in the wake of Hillary Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 4/24
Is it Age?
In the midst of the current discussion of the role of race in the campaign (see yesterday's blog) comes the curious suggestion from Sen. Obama that his chief challenge is about age, not socioeconomic status. The data don't seem to bear it out. . . .

Harvard University 4/24
Obama Dominating Highly-charged Youth Vote
A new national poll by Harvard University's Institute of Politics (IOP), located at Harvard Kennedy School, finds 18-24 year-olds who plan to vote for the Democratic candidate in November strongly prefer U.S. Senator Barack Obama over U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton (70% to 30%) to be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee. . . .

UVA: Rhodes Cook 4/24
Obama and Small-town America
Barack Obama caused quite a stir a fortnight ago when he told a suburban San Francisco fund raiser that small-town Pennsylvania voters were "bitter" about their economic plight. As a consequence, he added, "they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them..." . . . Yet as controversial as they were, Obama's remarks basically have reflected the contours of his vote-getting appeal. . . .

New York Times 4/24
For Democrats, Questions Over Race and Electability
It is the question that has hung over Senator Barack Obama's presidential campaign, and it loomed large on Tuesday night after his loss to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in Pennsylvania: Why has he been unable to win over enough working-class and white voters to wrap up the Democratic nomination? . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 4/23
The Role of Race, Revisited
Results in the Pennsylvania exit poll, not available from previous contests, underscore a potentially sensitive point should Barack Obama win the Democratic party's presidential nomination: The role of race in voters' decisions. . . .

Washington Post 4/23
Signs Indicate That Duels May Be Hurting Party
With Democratic voters falling into generally predictable patterns, there are signs in the Pennsylvania exit poll that the prolonged battle for the Democratic nomination may have negative consequences for the party. . . .

Pew Research Center 4/23
People Who Don't Respond to Pollsters
... Fewer people respond to surveys now than in the past. These failures to complete interviews result from a variety of factors, but the largest components are non-contact (that is, the failure ever to reach a person at the location or phone number designated as part of the sample) and refusal (the result of active or passive activities to avoid completing the survey). Thus, the question: How do the people who did not complete the survey differ from those who did? . . .

AP 4/23
Whites, blue-collar voters stick with Clinton
Working-class white voters rallied around Hillary Rodham Clinton on Tuesday as she kept her candidacy alive with a victory in Pennsylvania's presidential primary. Barack Obama won among Democrats who had newly flocked to the party for the day's showdown and scored even stronger than usual with blacks. . . .

ABC News 4/23
Negative Campaign Tarnishes Clinton, Obama
The tough tone of the Pennsylvania Democratic campaign tarnished both candidates -- more so Hillary Clinton, with 68% of voters saying she attacked Barack Obama unfairly. Yet it appears to have worked: Late deciders favored Clinton by a wide margin, boosting her to an essential victory in the state. . . .

CBS News 4/23
Why Clinton Won Pennsylvania
Hillary Clinton won the Pennsylvania Democratic primary by hanging tough with her base supporters in a state in which they are plentiful, even managing to beat back strong Obama support from a sizable bloc of newly registered Democrats. The biggest story of the evening, however, may be the polarized electorate that turned out to vote. . . .

Wall Street Journal: Steven Waldman 4/23
Taking Stock of the Catholic Vote(s)
Debates will rage for days about whether Hillary Clinton won by enough in Pennsylvania's Democratic primary to truly threaten Barack Obama's candidacy, but one thing is clear already: Sen. Obama continues to struggle among Catholics. Sen. Clinton trounced Sen. Obama 69% to 31% among Catholic voters, according to exit polls. . . .

USA Today 4/23
Food costs a major worry for consumers
Rising food prices are a significant worry for Americans, with 73% of consumers in a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll citing higher grocery bills as a concern, and nearly half saying food inflation has caused a hardship for their households. . . .

USA Today 4/22
Bush's disapproval worst of any president in 70 years
President Bush has set a record he'd presumably prefer to avoid: the highest disapproval rating of any president in the 70-year history of the Gallup Poll. In a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday, 28% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing; 69% disapprove. . . .

New York Times 4/22
In Clinton vs. Obama, Age One of Greatest Predictors
... In a campaign where demographics seem to be destiny, one of the most striking factors is the segregation of voters by age. In state after state, older voters have formed a core constituency for Mrs. Clinton, who is 60, while younger voters have coalesced around Mr. Obama, who is 46. Age has been one of the most consistent indicators of how someone might vote -- more than sex, more than income, more than education. . . .

CBS News 4/21
Economy Worries Young Voters
Concerns about the state of the economy have passed the Iraq war as the top concern for voters between the ages of 18 and 29, according to a poll conducted by CBS News and MTV. Twenty-two percent of young adults surveyed cited the economy as the number one issue facing their generation, compared to 13 percent who said the war in Iraq. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 4/21
PA Primary: What to Watch
Groups to watch – and perhaps not watch - in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary: EDUCATION - It's hard see a single factor more compelling than socioeconomic status, particularly as defined by education. It's split the Democratic electorate nearly all year, and as with her past victories, it's what Hillary Clinton will be counting on tomorrow. . . .

New Republic 4/21
The New Class
Amidst all the statistics clamoring for attention during the last six weeks of 24/7 Pennsylvania primary coverage, there's one key number that hasn't gotten the attention it deserves: 306,918. That's the number of new Democrats added to the voter rolls in Pennsylvania between January 1 and the voter registration deadline on March 24. . . .

Wall Street Journal 4/19
Trapped in the Middle
LANCASTER, Pa. -- Are you better off than you were eight years ago? For a growing number of middle-class Americans, the answer is "No." . . . It isn't just a reflection of the current economic slowdown and rise in commodity prices: Middle-class incomes have been stagnant for several years. The well-heeled keep doing better, with the wealthiest 1% of U.S. families garnering the largest share of income since 1929. . . .

Newsweek 4/19
Hillary Drops Back
Despite her campaign's relentless attacks on Barack Obama's qualifications and electability, Hillary Clinton has lost a lot of ground with Democratic voters nationwide going into Tuesday's critical primary in Pennsylvania, a new NEWSWEEK poll shows. . . .

CBS News 4/18
Obama Dominant At Pa. Colleges
Most students attending four-year colleges and universities in Pennsylvania are enthusiastic about voting in the presidential campaign, according to a poll conducted by CBS News and UWIRE, and Barack Obama is the overwhelming favorite among those who intend to vote in the Democratic primary. . . .

Washington Post 4/18
Public's View of Economy Takes Fast Turn Downward
The public's ratings of the national economy continue to sour, with assessments deteriorating faster than at any point in Washington Post-ABC News polling. Views on the Iraq war have also turned more negative, with six in 10 now rejecting the notion that the United States needs to win there to effectively battle terrorism. . . .

New York Times: Larry M. Bartels 4/17
Who's Bitter Now?
During Wednesday night's Democratic presidential debate in Philadelphia, Barack Obama once more tried to explain what he meant when he suggested earlier this month that small-town people of modest means "cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them" out of frustration with their place in a changing American economy. . . . Small-town people of modest means and limited education are not fixated on cultural issues. Rather, it is affluent, college-educated people living in cities and suburbs who are most exercised by guns and religion. . . .

UVA: Alan I. Abramowitz 4/17
Will Disappointed Democrats vote for McCain?
Democratic leaders are becoming increasingly worried about the long-term consequences of the drawn-out and contentious presidential nomination race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. . . . Recent public opinion polls appear to support the argument that the extended nomination battle between Clinton and Obama is helping John McCain. . . .

Gallup 4/17
Democrats Leading McCain in 'Purple' States
Democratic front-runner Barack Obama has a four-point advantage over presumptive Republican nominee John McCain among registered voters residing in states that were competitive in the 2004 election. Obama has a comfortable lead in states John Kerry won comfortably in 2004, as does McCain in states George W. Bush won easily. . . .

New York Times: Andrew Kohut 4/17
No Clear Advantage
One of the more surprising twists in a surprising year is that despite the obvious Republican disadvantages in this election cycle, John McCain is matching up pretty well against Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in tests being conducted by national polls. . . .

Los Angeles Times 4/17
Democratic voters warm up to government bailouts
Democratic voters in key primary states don't oppose the Bush administration's action to save investment firm Bear Stearns Cos. from bankruptcy, but most also think the government should bail out homeowners caught between rising mortgage payments and falling home values, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 4/16
Economic Concerns Recall Past Campaigns
The latest polls - those of CBS News as well as those of other organizations - show enormous and growing concerns about the nation's economy. Eighty one percent say the country is headed in the wrong direction - the highest percentage in the 25 years that CBS News has been asking the question. More than three in four say the economy is in bad condition, and the same percentage think things in the U.S. are worse than they were five years ago. . . .

Washington Post 4/16
Gains in Key Areas for Obama
Sen. Barack Obama holds a 10-point lead over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton when Democrats are asked whom they would prefer to see emerge as the party's presidential nominee, but there is little public pressure to bring the long and increasingly heated contest to an end, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

Bloomberg 4/15
Obama Leads in 2 States; Clinton Holds Pennsylvania
Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton in two of the next three Democratic primaries, an advantage, if it holds, that would allow him to sew up the nomination. A new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll of likely Democratic voters gives Clinton a 46 percent to 41 percent edge in Pennsylvania, and a similar 40 percent to 35 percent lead for Obama in Indiana. In North Carolina, Obama has a larger, 13-point advantage. . . .

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 4/15
Differences Between Married and Unmarried Women
A national survey of adult-aged women shows some real commonalities of among women almost across the board. . . . However, the survey also highlights key political and economic differences between married and unmarried women. . . . These differences lead to different conclusions, not only politically, but also in terms of policy, and challenge the conventional and now-outdated notion of a "women's vote" or even a "women's agenda." . . .

WorldPublicOpinion.org 4/15
Erosion of Support for Free Market System
Majorities in most countries continue to support the free market system, but over the last two years support has eroded in 10 of 18 countries regularly polled by GlobeScan. In several countries this drop in support has been quite sharp. . . .

ABC News 4/15
Bush Defeats Truman
At 39 months in the doghouse, George W. Bush has surpassed Harry Truman's record as the postwar president to linger longest without majority public approval. Bush hasn't received majority approval for his work in office in ABC News/Washington Post polls since Jan. 16, 2005 -- three years and three months ago. The previous record was Truman's during his last 38 months in office. . . .

Washington Post 4/15
U.S. Catholics Support Benedict
Nearly three-quarters of U.S. Catholics have a positive impression of Pope Benedict XVI, but most see the Church he leads as out of touch with their views and few approve of the way the clergy sex abuse scandal has been handled, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

Kaiser Family Foundation (pdf) 4/14
Health Care and Elections
With the presidential election coming up in November 2008, an examination of recent public opinion data as well as historical trends can give some insight into the potential role health care might play as an election issue. When it comes to the relative importance of different issues in deciding their vote, health care was one of the top five issues chosen by voters in three out of four presidential elections since 1992, while its ranking varied in congressional elections from 1994 through 2006. . . .

Newsday 4/14
Obama campaign struggles to win over Catholics
... Catholics are among the most powerful swing voting blocs in American politics; they backed the winner in seven of the last eight presidential elections. And Obama's failure to connect with a majority of Catholics in the Democratic primaries is one of his campaign's biggest headaches - one that poses a major threat to his chances of winning heavily-Catholic Pennsylvania next week and the big prize in November, experts say. . . .

Associated Press 4/13
Catholics Embrace Faith, Not Mass
American Catholics said in a new survey they were pleased with the leadership of Pope Benedict XVI, ahead of his first visit to the U.S. since he was elected. The study also found intense interest in faith among some young people. Yet, few parishioners overall said they go to confession, and most believed they could be good Roman Catholics without going to Mass. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 4/12
"Limbaugh Effect" Is Fairly Insignificant
What happens when primary voters "cross over" to vote in the other party's primary? Do they wish that party good, or ill, when they choose a candidate? Before the March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio, Rush Limbaugh urged Republicans to cross over to keep the Democratic Party full of what he called "chaos and tumult." Is there any evidence that Republicans did that? ...

Time 4/11
PA Gets its Political Close-Up
Of all the places Democrats could hunker down for a long fight in their epic 50-state scramble for the presidential nomination, Pennsylvania is perhaps the most illuminating. Politically speaking, when Pennsylvania gets the sniffles, America braces for a fever. . . .

UVA: Rhodes Cook 4/10
The Democratic End Game
One of the basic themes of the long-running Democratic nominating campaign between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton speaks to the need for a new era in American politics. But increasingly it seems as though their race could be decided by a method quite old -- a decision by the convention credentials committee that is voted up or down on the convention floor. . . .

Annenberg Public Policy Center (pdf) 4/10
Satisfaction with Presidential Primary Process Dropping
Fewer than one in three Democrats (30.9%) is satisfied with the presidential primary process this election season. That level has dropped significantly since the beginning of the year. Although satisfaction rates with the primary process are significantly higher among Republicans, those rates also have declined substantially since the first of the year. . . .

Pew Research Center 4/9
Bad Times Hit the Good Life
Fewer Americans now than at any time in the past half century believe they're moving forward in life. Americans feel stuck in their tracks. A majority of survey respondents say that in the past five years, they either haven't moved forward in life (25%) or have fallen backward (31%). This is the most downbeat short-term assessment of personal progress in nearly half a century of polling by the Pew Research Center and the Gallup organization. . . .

The Hill: David Hill 4/9
Penn: Culprit or victim?
The Republican in me felt some satisfaction last week when I saw the news scroll across my TV screen: "Pollster Mark Penn leaving Clinton campaign." But the pollster part of me felt a sense of melancholy. One of "us," a member of the polling fraternity, didn’t make it. Again. ...

The Hill: Mark Mellman 4/9
The real Clinton mistakes
A post-mortem on the Clinton campaign is premature, but it's never too early to learn from mistakes. While everyone agrees mistakes were made, the nature of those errors remains a matter of debate. . . .

Wall Street Journal: The Numbers Guy 4/9
Pollsters Debate the Internet
Is the Internet becoming a better medium for polling young people than the landline telephone? The Harris Poll claimed as much last week, in an online survey that bolstered two of the firm's arguments, by showing its online survey could produce reasonable results and that an increasing number of Americans can't be reached by landlines. . . .

Associated Press 4/8
Race Helps Clinton with Whites
Add this to the divisive debate over race in the presidential campaign: Whites who said race was important in picking their candidate have been about twice as likely to back Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton than Sen. Barack Obama. Exit polls of voters in Democratic primaries also show that whites who considered the contender's race -- Clinton is white, Obama is black -- were three times likelier to say they would only be satisfied with Clinton as the nominee than if Obama were chosen. . . .

Time 4/8
Can Geoff Garin Save Clinton?
The man that Hillary Clinton brought in to replace controversial strategist Mark Penn got his start in politics 32 years ago in Pennsylvania, the very state that is so crucial to her presidential hopes now. Back then, however, Geoff Garin was working for a Republican. . . .

Advertising Age 4/8
Mark Penn Gets Run Over on Way to White House
Last summer, when Hillary Clinton's nomination was a question of when, not if, her chief adviser, too, had an aura of inevitability around him. Mark Penn, the longtime Clinton pollster whose other job is running one of the largest PR firms in the world, seemed ready to transcend the drab world of spreadsheets and segmentation. Not only was he the brains behind the presumptive nominee, but his quaint worldview was enshrined in the hot-selling book "Microtrends," a compendium of subtle cultural, social and economic shifts that, the author argues, are key to understanding how people act. . . . Then Ms. Clinton and Mr. Penn were hit by the juggernaut that is Barack Obama and a campaign based not on segmentation but on an idea of change that, though often vague, clearly has hit the right emotional pitch for Democratic voters. . . .

Los Angeles Times 4/7
The race might come down to issues -- or not
There's a reason Democrats are confident they'll win the White House this fall: On the issues that rank highest, Americans seem to agree with their candidates. There's also a reason Republicans think their party will prevail: In several recent presidential elections, issues took a back seat to personality. . . .

WorldPublicOpinion.org 4/7
Iranians Favor Direct Talks with U.S.
A new WorldPublicOpinion.org polls finds that although Iranians continue to view the United States negatively, they strongly support steps to improve U.S.-Iran relations including direct talks, greater access for each others' journalists, increased trade and more cultural, educational and athletic exchanges. While majorities of Iranians think the United States threatens Iran and is hostile to Islam, these numbers have diminished over the past year. . . .

New York Times 4/6
Change Makes a Call on Levittown
The Obama for President headquarters in Levittown, Pa., is set on a busy thoroughfare just to the east of where all the houses begin -- 17,311 of them built by the developer William Levitt between 1952 and 1957. . . . Here, after all, was a place that needed a big change, a new dream, which for many voters Obama -- with his mixed race, international background, inspiring life story and his soaring rhetoric -- represents. But Levittown, while largely Democratic, is composed of many white, working-class "Reagan Democrats," exactly the part of the electorate that has been least receptive to him . . . .

New York Times 4/5
Meet the Oboptimists
Maybe they should be called the Oboptimists. The latest New York Times/CBS News poll found a striking difference between the way that Senator Barack Obama’s voters think about the future and the that way Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s voters do. Both groups overwhelmingly say that the country is in rough shape -- headed in the wrong direction, with an economy that is bad and getting worse. But when they are asked how well the next generation will live, the two groups diverge. . . .

New York Times 4/4
Obama's Support Softens, Suggesting Peak Has Passed
Senator Barack Obama’s support among Democrats nationally has softened over the last month, particularly among men and upper-income voters, as voters have taken a slightly less positive view of him than they did after his burst of victories in February, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. . . .

Pew Research Center 4/3
Pope Benedict Still Unknown to Many Americans
Two weeks before his first visit to the United States as spiritual leader of the Catholic Church, Pope Benedict XVI continues to be viewed favorably by a majority (52%) of Americans, a level virtually unchanged from August 2007 (50%). However, the pope remains unfamiliar to a relatively large number of Americans. . . .

The Hill: Mark Mellman 4/2
Precarious polling playthings
Few spectacles look sillier than adults engaged in serious play with children’s toys. It’s an apt description of the current discussion of presidential general election polls. Polls at this point are often inaccurate because people are only mediocre predictors of their own future behavior. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 4/2
Going Global?
A poll put out by the BBC World Service that's getting some attention today headlines a 4-point improvement in positive views of the United States in the 34 countries in which it was conducted. But before jumping on the result, consider the methodology. . . .

BBC 4/2
World views US 'more positively'
Attitudes to the United States are improving, an opinion poll carried out for the BBC World Service suggests. The average percentage of people saying that the US has a positive influence has risen to 35% from 31% a year ago, according to the survey. Those saying the US has a negative influence fell five percentage points to 47%. The poll, part of a regular survey of world opinion, interviewed more than 17,000 people in 34 countries. . . .

New York Times 4/1
Carrying Primary Scars Into the General Election
... For all the sirens warning of disaster, history offers mixed guidance on whether spirited primary fights are fatal. Many historians and analysts say that while protracted primaries can weaken a nominee, bigger factors are usually at play. Voters are often swayed by whether they feel the country is headed in the right direction. They take into account whether primary battles are personal or political. They want to see whether the winner and the loser can patch things up. And time can make a difference. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 4/1
November
Despite the intense interest, we’re urging our shop not to put too much weight on general election polling just yet; November is a long way off, and the continued bloodletting in the Democratic race makes it a less-than-ideal time to ask Democrats, or independents for that matter, their preference in the fall contest. . . .

History News Network: Mark D. Nevin 3/31
Those "Undemocratic" Party Conventions
... To many critics the superdelegates are anathema to the ideals of representative government and democratic choice. They are relics of the period before the adoption of the primary system in the 1970s when unaccountable and self serving party bosses met behind closed doors to bargain over the selection of presidential candidates without regard to the wishes of party members. But was the previous presidential nomination system as unrepresentative as critics contend? . . .

New York Times 3/30
A Case of the Blues
... For [Mark] Gersh, the modern political map has sustained two basic changes in the past 30 years. The first, beginning with Ronald Reagan's election in 1980 but only culminating with the 1994 election of Newt Gingrich's insurgents, was the slow, top-down conversion of socially conservative blue-collar voters, in the South and elsewhere, from Democratic partisans to Republican ones. In 2006, Gersh saw the culmination of the second big shift. "The biggest thing that happened in 2006 was the final movement of upper-income, well-educated, largely suburban voters to the Democrats, which started in 1992," he says. . . .

Wall Street Journal 3/29
At the Barricades In the Gender Wars
... When Sen. Clinton started her presidential campaign more than a year ago, she said she wanted to shatter the ultimate glass ceiling. But many of her supporters see something troubling in the sometimes bitter resistance to her campaign and the looming possibility of her defeat: a seeming backlash against the opportunities women have gained. . . .

Annenberg Public Policy Center 3/28
Internet Popular Political Info Tool, TV Dominates
Despite the popularity of the Internet during this campaign season,