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     White House 2004: General Election (p. 3)


Polls listed chronologically. All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older.

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ABC News Tracking Poll and Washington Post Tracking Poll. Rolling sample. Fieldwork by TNS. ABC News and The Washington Post share data collection for this tracking poll, but calculate and report the results independently. WASHINGTON POST: Oct. 28-31, 2004. N=3,511 registered voters nationwide; 2,904 likely voters (MoE 2). ABC NEWS: Oct. 28-31, 2004. N=3,511 registered voters nationwide; 2,904 likely voters (MoE 2).   <GRAPHIC>

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans, John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents?" If undecided: "Which candidate are you leaning toward?" Order of Bush/Cheney and Kerry/Edwards tickets rotated, with Nader/Camejo ticket always last

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Nader/
Camejo
None/
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
Washington Post Tracking Poll -- among likely voters:

10/28-31/04

49 48 1 1 2

10/27-30/04

48 48 - 1 2

10/26-29/04

49 48 1 1 1

10/25-28/04

50 47 - 2 1

10/24-27/04

49 48 1 2 1

10/23-26/04

48 49 1 - 1

10/22-25/04

48 50 1 - 1

10/21-24/04

48 49 1 1 1

10/20-23/04

49 48 1 - 2

10/20-22/04

50 46 1 - 2

10/19-21/04

50 46 1 - 2

10/18-20/04

51 45 1 1 2

10/17-19/04

50 47 1 - 2

10/16-18/04

51 46 1 - 2

10/14-17/04

50 47 1 - 2

10/13-16/04

50 46 2 - 2

10/13-15/04

50 47 2 - 1

10/12-14/04

48 48 1 1 1

10/11-13/04

48 48 1 1 2

10/10-12/04

48 49 1 1 2

10/9-11/04

50 47 1 1 2

10/8-10/04

51 45 1 1 2

10/6-9/04

51 46 1 1 2

10/6-8/04

50 46 1 1 2

10/5-7/04

50 47 - 1 1

10/4-6/04

49 47 1 2 1

10/3-5/04

49 47 1 2 1

10/2-4/04

51 45 1 1 1

10/1-3/04

51 46 1 1 1

.

ABC News Tracking Poll -- among likely voters:

10/28-31/04

49 48 1 1 2

10/27-30/04

49 48 - 1 2

10/26-29/04

49 48 1 1 1

10/25-28/04

50 47 - 2 1

10/24-27/04

49 48 1 1 1

10/23-26/04

48 49 1 - 1

10/22-25/04

48 49 1 - 1

10/21-24/04

48 49 1 1 1

10/20-23/04

49 48 1 1 2

10/19-21/04

50 46 1 1 2

10/17-20/04

51 46 1 - 2

10/17-19/04

51 46 1 - 2

10/16-18/04

51 46 1 - 2

10/14-17/04

50 47 1 - 2

10/13-16/04

50 46 2 - 2

10/12-14/04

48 48 1 1 1

10/11-13/04

48 48 1 1 2

10/10-12/04

48 48 1 1 2

10/9-11/04

50 46 1 1 2

10/7-10/04

50 46 1 1 2

10/6-9/04

50 46 1 1 2

10/6-8/04

50 47 1 1 2

10/5-7/04

50 47 - 1 1

10/4-6/04

49 47 1 2 1

10/3-5/04

49 47 1 2 1

10/2-4/04

51 45 1 1 1

10/1-3/04

51 46 1 1 1

.

ABC News/Washington Post Poll trend -- among likely voters:

9/23-26/04

51 45 1 1 2

9/6-8/04

52 43 2 1 2

8/26-29/04

48 48 1 1 2

7/30 - 8/1/04

47 49 2 1 1

7/22-25/04

50 46 2 1 1

.

Washington Post Tracking Poll -- among registered voters:

10/28-31/04

48 48 1 1 2

10/27-30/04

47 48 1 2 2

10/26-29/04

47 48 1 1 2

10/25-28/04

48 46 1 1 2

10/24-27/04

47 48 1 2 2

10/23-26/04

47 48 1 1 2

10/22-25/04

47 48 1 1 2

10/21-24/04

46 48 2 1 2

10/20-23/04

49 46 1 1 3

10/20-22/04

50 45 2 1 3

10/19-21/04

50 44 1 1 3

10/18-20/04

51 44 1 2 3

10/17-19/04

51 45 1 1 2

10/16-18/04

50 45 1 - 3

10/14-17/04

48 47 1 1 3

10/13-16/04

48 47 1 1 3

10/13-15/04

48 47 2 1 2

10/12-14/04

47 48 2 1 2

10/11-13/04

47 47 2 2 2

10/10-12/04

46 48 2 2 2

10/9-11/04

46 48 2 1 2

10/8-10/04

47 47 2 1 3

10/6-9/04

48 47 1 2 3

10/6-8/04

48 46 1 2 3

10/5-7/04

48 47 1 2 2

10/4-6/04

48 47 1 2 2

10/3-5/04

49 46 2 2 2

10/2-4/04

50 44 2 1 2

10/1-3/04

49 46 2 1 2

.

ABC News Tracking Poll -- among registered voters:

10/28-31/04

48 47 1 2 2

10/27-30/04

48 47 1 2 2

10/26-29/04

48 47 1 1 2

10/25-28/04

49 45 1 1 2

10/24-27/04

48 46 2 3 2

10/23-26/04

47 47 1 2 2

10/22-25/04

47 47 2 1 2

10/21-24/04

47 47 2 1 2

10/20-23/04

49 45 1 1 3

10/19-21/04

50 44 1 1 3

10/17-20/04

51 44 1 1 3

10/17-19/04

51 44 1 1 2

10/16-18/04

51 44 1 1 3

10/14-17/04

49 46 1 1 3

10/13-16/04

49 45 2 1 3

10/12-14/04

47 48 2 1 2

10/11-13/04

47 47 2 2 2

10/10-12/04

47 47 2 2 2

10/9-11/04

48 46 2 1 2

10/7-10/04

48 46 1 1 3

10/6-9/04

48 47 1 2 3

10/6-8/04

48 46 1 2 3

10/5-7/04

48 47 1 2 2

10/4-6/04

49 46 1 3 2

10/3-5/04

50 45 2 1 2

10/2-4/04

52 43 2 1 2

10/1-3/04

50 45 2 1 2

.

ABC News/Washington Post Poll trend -- among registered voters:

9/23-26/04

51 44 2 2 2

9/6-8/04

50 44 2 2 2

8/26-29/04

48 47 2 1 2

7/30 - 8/1/04

44 50 2 2 2

7/22-25/04

48 46 3 1 1

7/8-11/04

46 46 4 4 1

 

American Research Group Poll. Oct. 28-30, 2004. N=1,500 registered voters nationwide (MoE 2.5); 1,258 likely voters (MoE 2.8).

.

"If the election for president and vice president were being held today and the names on the ballot included George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, the Republicans, and John Kerry for president and John Edwards for vice president , the Democrats, for whom would you vote: Bush, Kerry, or someone else?" Options  rotated

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Other/
Unsure
% % %
Likely voters 48 49 3
Registered voters 48 49 3

.

"What if the election for president and vice president were being held today and the names on the ballot included George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, the Republicans, John Kerry for president and John Edwards for vice president, the Democrats, and Ralph Nader for president and Peter Camejo for vice president, the independents, for whom would you vote: Bush, Kerry, Nader, or someone else?" Options  rotated

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Nader/
Camejo
Other/
Unsure
% % % %
Likely voters 48 48 1 3
Registered voters 48 48 1 3

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 27-30, 2004. N=2,408 registered voters nationwide (MoE 2.5); 1,925 likely voters (MoE 2.5).

.

"If the presidential election were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, for the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards, or for the ticket of Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Order of Bush/Cheney and Kerry/Edwards tickets rotated, with Nader/Camejo ticket always last. As of 10/15-19, Nader/Camejo option not included in states where they are not on the ballot.

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Nader/
Camejo
Other/
Unsure
% % % %

.

VOTE PROJECTION, based on likely voters, with undecideds allocated:

10/27-30/04 51 48 1  

.

Among likely voters:

10/27-30/04 48 45 1 6
10/15-19/04 47 47 1 5

.

10/1-3/04 49 44 2 5
9/11-14/04 47 46 1 6
9/8-10/04 54 38 2 6

.

Among registered voters:

10/27-30/04 45 46 1 8
10/15-19/04 45 45 1 9

.

10/1-3/04 48 41 2 9
9/22-26/04 48 40 2 10
9/17-21/04 45 42 3 10
9/8-14/04 49 43 1 7
  9/11-14/04 46 46 1 7
  9/8-10/04 52 40 1 7
8/5-10/04 45 47 2 6
7/8-18/04 44 46 3 7

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 27-29, 2004. N=1,005 registered voters nationwide (MoE 4); 882 likely voters (MoE 4).

.

"Suppose the election were being held TODAY and you had the following three choices for president and vice president: George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans; John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats; and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independent or third party candidates. [Choices rotated.] Who would you vote for?" If none of these: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush and Cheney, the Republicans; Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats; or Nader and Camejo?" As of 10/14-15, Nader/Camejo included only in states where they are on the ballot.

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Nader/
Camejo
Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % % %
Among likely voters:
10/27-29/04 50 44 1 5
10/21-22/04 48 46 1 5
10/14-15/04 50 44 1 5

.

Among registered voters:
10/27-29/04 48 44 1 7
10/21-22/04 46 46 2 6
10/14-15/04 48 46 1 5

.

9/30 - 10/2/04* 45 47 2 6
9/9-10/04 49 43 2 6
9/2-3/04 52 41 3 4
7/29-30/04 42 49 3 6
7/8-9/04 44 47 3 6

.

"What if you HAD TO CHOOSE between Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, and Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats. If the election were held TODAY, who would you vote for?" If neither: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats?" Choices rotated.
9/30 - 10/2/04: "
Suppose Ralph Nader is not listed on the ballot in your state. If the election were held TODAY, would you vote for Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats?" Choices rotated. If unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats
?"
9/9-10/04 & earlier: "Suppose there were only two choices for president and vice president and you HAD TO CHOOSE between George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans; and John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats. [Choices rotated.] If the election were held TODAY, who would you vote for?" If neither: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats?"

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
Among likely voters:
10/27-29/04 51 45 4
10/21-22/04 48 47 5
10/14-15/04 50 45 5

.

Among registered voters:
10/27-29/04 48 45 7
10/21-22/04 47 47 6
10/14-15/04 48 47 5
9/30 - 10/2/04* 46 49 5
9/9-10/04 50 45 5
9/2-3/04 54 43 3
7/29-30/04 44 52 4
7/8-9/04 45 51 4

.

"In general, would you like to see George W. Bush reelected to another term as president, or not?"

.

Yes No Unsure
% % %
Among likely voters:
10/27-29/04 50 45 5
10/21-22/04 47 48 5
10/14-15/04 49 46 5

.

Among registered voters:
10/27-29/04 48 46 6
10/21-22/04 46 48 6
10/14-15/04 47 48 5
9/30 - 10/2/04* 46 48 6
9/9-10/04 50 46 4
9/2-3/04 53 43 4
7/29-30/04 43 53 4
7/8-9/04 43 52 5
5/13-14/04 41 51 8
3/25-26/04 45 50 5
3/18-19/04 46 50 4
2/19-20/04 43 52 5
2/5-6/04 45 50 5
1/29-30/04 45 49 6
1/22-23/04 44 52 4
1/8-9/04 48 46 6
12/18-19/03 46 46 8
12/11-12/03 45 50 5
11/6-7/03 44 50 6
10/30-31/03 45 46 9
10/23-24/03 46 47 7
10/9-10/03 44 50 6
9/25-26/03 46 47 7
9/18-19/03 44 50 6
8/21-22/03 44 49 7
7/24-25/03 49 43 8
7/10-11/03 47 46 7
5/1-2/03 51 38 11
4/10-11/03 52 38 10
11/02 49 42 9

.

*Sept. 30 interviewing limited to Pacific and Mountain time zones, after the presidential debate concluded.


 

ICR/International Communications Research poll. Oct. 22-26, 2004. N=817 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3.4); 741 likely voters (MoE 3.6).

.

"If the presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans, John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents?" Order of Bush/Cheney and Kerry/Edwards tickets rotated, with Nader/Camejo ticket always last. If other/none/unsure: "As of today, do you lean more to Bush, the Republican, Kerry, the Democrat, or Nader, the independent?"

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Nader/
Camejo
None/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
Among likely voters:

10/22-26/04

48 45 2 2 3

10/9-11/04

48 43 2 3 4

10/1-5/04

51 44 2 1 3

9/24-28/04

51 41 2 1 5

9/8-12/04

51 44 3 1 3

9/1-5/04

46 46 4 2 3

8/25-29/04

45 48 2 1 3

8/4-8/04

46 46 3 1 3

.

Among registered voters:

10/22-26/04

47 45 3 3 3

10/9-11/04

46 43 3 3 4

10/1-5/04

49 44 2 1 4

9/24-28/04

48 41 3 2 7

9/8-12/04

48 44 3 1 4

9/1-5/04

43 45 5 2 6

8/25-29/04

42 49 3 2 5

8/4-8/04

43 47 4 2 5

.

Asked of those who answered Nader/Camejo, none, other, or unsure:
"Suppose there were only two tickets to choose between: George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans; John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats. Who would you vote for?" Options rotated
       
Net results:

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Other
(vol.)
Neither
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
Among likely voters:

10/22-26/04

49 48 - - 3

10/9-11/04

49 46 - 1 4

10/1-5/04

51 46 - 1 2

9/24-28/04

51 43 - 1 5

9/8-12/04

52 44 - 2 2

9/1-5/04

48 47 - 2 3

8/25-29/04

46 50 - 1 4

8/4-8/04

48 48 - 1 3

.

Among registered voters:

10/22-26/04

48 48 - 1 4

10/9-11/04

48 46 - 2 4

10/1-5/04

50 46 - 1 3

9/24-28/04

50 43 1 1 6

9/8-12/04

49 45 - 2 3

9/1-5/04

46 47 - 2 4

8/25-29/04

44 51 - 1 4

8/4-8/04

45 50 - 1 4

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 22-24, 2004. N=1,461 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3); 1,195 likely voters (MoE 3).

.

As of 10/22-24 -- Asked of those who have NOT already voted:
"
Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?
" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independents?" Options rotated. As of 10/1-3/04, results reflect Nader/Camejo support only for states where they are on the ballot.
     
As of
10/22-24 -- Asked of those who HAVE already voted:
"Who did you vote for in the presidential election?" Open-ended

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Nader/
Camejo
None/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
Among likely voters:

10/22-24/04

51 46 1 - 2

10/14-16/04

52 44 1 - 3

10/9-10/04

48 49 1 - 2

10/1-3/04

49 49 1 1 -

.

9/24-26/04

52 44 3 - 1

9/3-5/04

52 45 1 - 2

8/23-25/04

48 46 4 - 2

8/9-11/04

48 46 3 1 2

7/30 - 8/1/04

51 45 2 1 1

7/30-31/04

50 46 2 - 2

7/19-21/04

46 47 4 1 2

7/8-11/04

45 50 2 1 2

.

Among registered voters:

10/22-24/04

49 47 1 1 2

10/14-16/04

49 46 1 1 3

10/9-10/04

48 48 1 1 2

10/1-3/04

49 47 1 2 1

.

9/24-26/04

53 42 3 1 1

9/3-5/04

48 46 4 1 1

8/23-25/04

46 46 4 1 3

8/9-11/04

46 45 5 1 3

7/30 - 8/1/04

48 47 2 1 2

7/30-31/04

47 47 3 1 2

7/19-21/04

43 47 5 2 3

7/8-11/04

42 50 4 1 3

.

Asked of Nader/Camejo supporters:
"If Ralph Nader is not on the ballot in your state on Election Day, would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, or Bush and Cheney, the Republicans?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, or Bush and Cheney, the Republicans?" Options rotated
       
Re-calculated 2-way race, based on this trial heat and the 3-way trial heat, above:

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Neither
(vol.)
Other
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
Among likely voters:

10/22-24/04

52 46 - - 2

10/14-16/04

52 44 1 - 3

10/9-10/04

48 50 - - 2

10/1-3/04

49 49 1 1 -

9/24-26/04**

52 44 1 - 3

9/13-15/04

55 42 1 - 2

9/3-5/04

52 45 1 - 2

8/23-25/04

50 47 1 - 2

8/9-11/04

50 47 1 - 2

7/30 - 8/1/04

51 47 - - 2

7/30-31/04

50 47 1 - 2

7/19-21/04

47 49 2 - 2

7/8-11/04

46 50 2 - 2

.

Among registered voters:

10/22-24/04

49 48 1 - 2

10/14-16/04

50 46 1 - 3

10/9-10/04

48 48 1 1 2

10/1-3/04

49 48 1 1 1

9/24-26/04**

54 41 2 - 3

9/13-15/04

52 44 2 - 2

9/3-5/04

49 48 2 - 1

8/23-25/04

47 48 2 - 3

8/9-11/04

48 47 2 1 2

7/30 - 8/1/04

48 48 1 - 3

7/30-31/04

47 50 1 - 2

7/19-21/04

45 49 3 - 3

7/8-11/04

44 51 2 1 3

.

** 9/04 and earlier: "Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, or George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, or Bush and Cheney, the Republicans?" Options rotated

 

Los Angeles Times Poll. Oct. 21-24, 2004. N=1,698 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3); 881 likely voters (MoE 3).

.

"If the November general election for president were being held today and the choices were George W. Bush and Dick Cheney on the Republican ticket, and John Kerry and John Edwards on the Democratic ticket, for whom would you vote: Bush/Cheney or Kerry/Edwards?" Options rotated. Includes leaners.

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Unsure
% % %
Among likely voters:
10/21-24/04 49 48 3
9/25-28/04 51 46 3

.

Among registered voters:

10/21-24/04 47 48 5
9/25-28/04 49 45 6
8/21-24/04 49 46 5
7/17-21/04 46 48 6

.

"If the November general election for president were being held today and the choices were George W. Bush and Dick Cheney on the Republican ticket, John Kerry and John Edwards on the Democratic ticket, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo running on an independent ticket, for whom would you vote: Bush/Cheney, Kerry/Edwards or Nader/Camejo?" Options rotated. Includes leaners.

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Nader/
Camejo
Other/
Unsure
% % % %
Among likely voters:
10/21-24/04 48 48 1 3
9/25-28/04 51 45 2 2

.

Among registered voters:

10/21-24/04 47 47 1 5
9/25-28/04 47 43 4 6
8/21-24/04 47 44 3 6
7/17-21/04 44 46 3 7

.

"Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be reelected to a second term as president, or not?"

.

Does Does Not Unsure
% % %
Among likely voters:
10/21-24/04 48 49 3
9/25-28/04 50 47 3

.

Trend, among registered voters:

8/21-24/04 47 49 4

 

Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. Oct. 19-21, 2004. N=1,059 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3); 803 likely voters (MoE 4). NOTE: Time magazine typically reports Time Poll election trial heat results without leaners. So that they are consistent with how most national poll results are reported, the Time Poll trial heats on PollingReport.com are shown with leaners included (when available).

.

"Now suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today, and you had to choose between John Kerry, the Democrat; George W. Bush, the Republican; or Ralph Nader, running as an independent. For whom would you vote: Bush, Kerry, or Nader?" If undecided: "Even though you haven't made up your mind yet, do you lean more toward supporting Bush, Kerry, or Nader?" Bush and Kerry rotated, with Nader always last. As of 10/19-21/04, results exclude refusals.

.

Bush Kerry Nader Unsure  
% % % %  
Among likely voters:
10/19-21/04 51 46 2 1  
10/14-15/04 48 47 3 2  

10/6-7/04

46 45 4 5  

9/21-23/04

48 43 5 3  

9/7-9/04

52 42 3 4  

8/31 - 9/2/04

52 42 3 3  

8/24-26/04

47 45 5 3  

8/3-5/04

44 48 4 4  

7/20-22/04

46 46 5 3  

.

Among registered voters:
10/19-21/04 50 43 4 2  
10/14-15/04 46 46 4 3  

10/6-7/04*

44 43 4 7  

9/21-23/04

47 43 6 4  

9/7-9/04*

50 39 4 6  

8/31 - 9/2/04

49 40 5 6  

8/3-5/04

42 47 6 5  

7/20-22/04

44 46 5 4  

.

* Excludes leaners

 

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=1,330 registered voters nationwide (MoE 2.5); 976 likely voters (MoE 3).

.

"If the election for president and vice president were held today and the candidates were George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, the Republicans, and John Kerry for president and John Edwards for vice president, the Democrats, and Ralph Nader for president and Peter Camejo for vice president, the independents, for whom would you vote?" If "other," "none," or "not sure": "Do you lean more toward [see below]?"

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Nader/
Camejo
Other/
None (vol.)/
Unsure
 
% % % %  

Among likely voters:

10/18-20/04 46 49 2 3  
10/4-6/04 46 50 2 2  
9/20-22/04 52 45 1 2  
9/7-9/04 51 46 1 2  

.

Among registered voters:

10/18-20/04 46 47 3 4  
10/4-6/04 47 47 2 4  
9/20-22/04 51 42 2 5  
9/7-9/04 51 43 2 4  
8/27-29/04 45 45 3 7  
8/3-5/04 45 48 3 4  
7/6-7/04 50 46 2 2  
6/7-9/04 * 44 47 6 2  

.

* Excludes Camejo

 

Marist College Poll. Oct. 17-19, 2004. N=1,011 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3); 772 likely voters (MoE 3.5).

.

"If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?" As of 10/04, Nader/Camejo results based on respondents in states where they were on the ballot when interviewing began.

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Nader/
Camejo

Unsure

% % % %
Among likely voters -- with leaners:
10/17-19/04

49

48

1

2

.

.

Trend, among likely voters -- without leaners:
10/4-5/04

49

46

1

4

.

9/20-22/04

50

44

2

4

.

7/30 - 8/2/04

47

47

1

5

.

7/12-15/04

46

47

1

6

.

.

Among registered voters -- without leaners:
10/17-19/04

47

47

1

5

.

10/4-5/04

47

46

1

6

.

.

Trend, among registered voters -- with leaners:
9/20-22/04

48

45

3

4

.

7/30 - 8/2/04

46

47

3

4

.

7/12-15/04

46

47

3

4

.


 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 14-16, 2004. N=942 registered voters nationwide (MoE 4); 788 likely voters (MoE 4).

.

"Please tell me whether you think each of the following political officeholders deserves to be reelected, or not. How about President Bush?" Trend includes slight variation wording

.

Yes,
Deserves
No,
Does Not
Unsure    
% % %    
Among likely voters:

10/14-16/04

53 44 3    

7/19-21/04

48 50 2    

 

Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. Oct. 14-15, 2004. N=1,000 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3); 865 likely voters (MoE 4). NOTE: Time magazine typically reports Time Poll election trial heat results without leaners. So that they are consistent with how most national poll results are reported, the Time Poll trial heats on PollingReport.com are shown with leaners included (when available).

.

"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today, and you had to choose between John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans. For whom would you vote: Kerry and Edwards, or Bush and Cheney?" If undecided: "Even though you haven't made up your mind yet, do you lean more toward supporting Kerry or Bush?" Options rotated

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Other
(vol.)
Unsure  
% % % %  
Among likely voters:
10/14-15/04 48 48 1 2  

10/6-7/04

47 46 0 6  

9/21-23/04

49 45 2 4  

9/7-9/04

54 42 0 4  

8/31 - 9/2/04

53 43 1 3  

8/24-26/04

48 48 - 4  

8/3-5/04

44 51 1 4  

7/20-22/04

46 50 1 3  

.

Among registered voters:
10/14-15/04* 46 46 0 7  

10/6-7/04*

43 44 2 12  

9/21-23/04

48 44 1 7  

9/7-9/04*

51 39 1 10  

8/31 - 9/2/04

50 42 1 7  

8/3-5/04

43 51 1 5  

7/20-22/04

45 50 1 4  

.

* Excludes leaners

.

.

"Now suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today, and you had to choose between John Kerry, the Democrat; George W. Bush, the Republican; or Ralph Nader, running as an independent. For whom would you vote: Bush, Kerry, or Nader?" If undecided: "Even though you haven't made up your mind yet, do you lean more toward supporting Bush, Kerry, or Nader?" Bush and Kerry rotated, with Nader always last

.

Bush Kerry Nader Unsure  
% % % %  
Among likely voters:
10/14-15/04 48 47 3 2  

10/6-7/04

46 45 4 5  

9/21-23/04

48 43 5 3  

9/7-9/04

52 42 3 4  

8/31 - 9/2/04

52 42 3 3  

8/24-26/04

47 45 5 3  

8/3-5/04

44 48 4 4  

7/20-22/04

46 46 5 3  

.

Among registered voters:
10/14-15/04 46 46 4 3  

10/6-7/04*

44 43 4 7  

9/21-23/04

47 43 6 4  

9/7-9/04*

50 39 4 6  

8/31 - 9/2/04

49 40 5 6  

8/3-5/04

42 47 6 5  

7/20-22/04

44 46 5 4  

.

* Excludes leaners

 

Scripps Survey Research Center, Ohio University. Oct. 3-13, 2004. N=867 registered voters nationwide.

.

General Election Trial Heat:

Bush Kerry Other/
Unsure

.

  % % %  
Likely voters 48 47 5  
Registered voters 45 50 5  

Earlier polling on the general election

 


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