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     White House 2004: General Election (p. 6)


Polls listed chronologically. All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older.

.

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Quinnipiac University Poll. Jan. 28-31, 2004. N=1,219 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.8.

.

"Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below] the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?"

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
1/28-31/04 43 51 1 1 4
1/21-25/04 49 45 - 1 5
12/03 51 39 2 2 6
10/03 49 43 1 1 5
9/03 53 38 2 2 6
7/03 51 40 1 1 7
6/03 53 37 2 1 6
1-2/03 50 42 1 1 7

.

George
W. Bush
John
Edwards
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
1/28-31/04 47 45 1 1 6
1/21-25/04 50 42 1 2 6
12/03 52 37 2 2 6

.

Bush Howard
Dean
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
1/28-31/04 49 44 1 2 4
1/21-25/04 54 38 1 2 5
12/03 51 40 2 2 5
10/03 48 42 2 2 6
9/03 53 38 1 2 7
7/03 53 37 2 1 6
1-2/03 53 36 2 2 7

.

George
W. Bush
Wesley
Clark
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
1/28-31/04 48 45 1 1 5
1/21-25/04 51 41 1 2 5
12/03 50 41 2 1 6
10/03 47 43 1 2 7

.

George
W. Bush
Joe
Lieberman
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
1/28-31/04 49 44 1 2 4
1/21-25/04 53 39 1 2 5
12/03 51 40 2 2 5
10/03 48 43 2 2 5
9/03 52 41 1 2 4
7/03 51 41 1 1 5
6/03 53 40 1 1 5
1-2/03 49 43 2 1 5

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Jan. 29-30, 2004. N=1,022 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"Suppose the next general election for president were being held TODAY and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and [see below], the Democrat -- who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican, or [see below], the Democrat?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
Joe
Lieberman
Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
1/29-30/04 52 41 7
1/22-23/04 49 45 6
1/8-9/04 52 41 7
12/18-19/03 52 40 8
12/11-12/03 51 42 7
11/6-7/03 48 44 8
10/23-24/03 50 43 7
10/9-10/03 50 42 8
9/25-26/03 51 42 7
7/03 52 39 9
10/02 60 33 7

 

American Research Group Poll. Jan. 27-29, 2004. N=768 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5 (total sample).

.

"If the election for president were being held today between George W. Bush, the Republican, and the Democratic nominee for president, for whom would you vote: Bush or the Democratic nominee?" Options rotated

George
W. Bush
Democrat Unsure

.

% % %

.

ALL 47 46 7

.

Republicans 88 2 10

.

Democrats 9 85 6

.

Independents 46 49 5

.


 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Jan. 21-22, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were held today, do you think you would be more likely to vote for Republican George W. Bush OR for the Democratic candidate?" Options rotated

.

Bush Democrat Depends
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
1/21-22/04 43 39 13 5
12/03 43 36 12 9
10/03 44 38 11 7

.

"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat [see below]?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
1/21-22/04 49 42 8 1
1/7-8/04 54 32 12 2
7/03 54 35 8 3
5/03 58 29 11 2
12/02 57 29 12 2

.

George
W. Bush
John
Edwards
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
1/21-22/04 51 39 9 1

.

George
W. Bush
Howard
Dean
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
1/21-22/04 54 34 9 3
1/7-8/04 54 33 10 3
11/03 49 36 12 3
7/03 55 27 15 3

.

George
W. Bush
Wesley
Clark
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
1/21-22/04 51 37 11 1
1/7-8/04 52 32 14 2
11/03 49 36 13 2
9/03 46 37 7 10

.

George
W. Bush
Hillary
Clinton
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
1/21-22/04 52 39 7 2
11/03 52 38 8 2
7/03 52 35 10 3
5/03 60 30 8 2
11/02 59 24 16 1
8/02 58 28 12 2
1/01 45 34 21 -

 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Jan. 15-18, 2004. N=1,036 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch.

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush, the Republican, or for the Democratic nominee for president?" Options rotated

.

Bush Democrat Neither/
Other (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
Among ALL adults:
1/15-18/04 48 46 2 2 3
Among registered voters:
12/18-21/03 51 41 4 1 3
10/26-29/03 48 47 2 1 2
10/9-13/03 44 49 3 1 3
Among ALL adults:
9/03 49 44 3 2 2
8/03 48 40 3 1 7
4/03 53 40 2 1 3

 

Zogby America Poll. Jan. 15-18, 2004. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2.

.

"If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote: the Republican George W. Bush or the Democratic candidate?" Options rotated. Trend includes slight variations in wording.

.

George
W. Bush
Democrat Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
1/15-18/04 41 45 2 12
12/15-17/03 47 42 2 9
12/4-6/03 43 41 3 13
11/3-5/03 41 41 2 16
10/15-18/03 43 45 1 12
9/22-24/03 41 45 3 12
9/3-5/03 39 47 3 11
8/16-19/03 43 42 2 13
7/16-17/03 47 44 1 8
6/6-10/03 44 37 3 16
3/03 48 38 2 13

 

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Jan. 14-15, 2004. N=1,003 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.

.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection, how likely are you to vote for him: very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?"

.

Very
Likely
Some-
what
Likely
Some-
what
Unlikely
Very
Unlikely
Not
Sure
% % % % %

1/14-15/04

30 19 12 36 3

12/30/03 & 1/1/04

33 18 8 38 3

11/03

32 15 10 38 5

7/03

33 17 10 36 4

5/03

38 18 8 33 3

3/03

40 16 9 32 3

10/02

35 19 8 32 6

1/02

40 23 11 22 4

5/01

26 17 8 42 7

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Jan. 10-12, 2004. N=1,002 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.

.

"If the next election for president were held today, and George W. Bush were running as the Republican candidate and [see below] were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?"

George
W.
Bush
Howard
Dean
Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % % %
1/10-12/04 54 37 2 4 4
12/14/03 52 31 3 4 10
12/13/03 51 39 1 4 5
11/03 50 35 2 6 8
9/03 48 35 3 7 8
7/03 52 30 3 7 8

.

George
W.
Bush
Wesley
Clark
Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % % %
1/10-12/04 53 35 2 4 6
12/14/03 53 28 2 4 13
12/13/03 50 34 2 4 10
11/03 49 37 2 5 7
9/03 45 38 2 5 11

.

George
W.
Bush
Richard
Gephardt
Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % % %
1/10-12/04 55 34 2 4 5
12/13/03 51 35 1 5 8
11/03 52 36 1 5 6
5/03 55 29 3 5 7
1/03 51 32 3 6 8
1/02 67 21 n/a 3 9

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Jan. 9-11, 2004. N=793 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

.

"If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat, or Bush, the Republican?" Names rotated

George
W. Bush
Richard
Gephardt
Neither
(vol.)
Other
(vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
1/9-11/04 55 42 2 1 1
Among registered voters:
11/03 52 46 1 - 1
9/03 48 46 3 1 2

.

"Which comes closest to your view about the election for president in November? You plan to vote for Bush regardless of whom the Democrats nominate for president. You are waiting to see who the Democrats nominate for president before you make up your mind about who to vote for. OR, You plan to vote against Bush regardless of whom the Democrats nominate for president." Options rotated

Vote For
Bush
Waiting Vote
Against
Bush
   
% % %    
1/9-11/04 39 28 33    

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Jan. 6-11, 2004. N=1,140 registered voters nationwide.

.

"Looking ahead to the general election in November, would you like to see George W. Bush reelected president in 2004 or would you prefer that a Democratic candidate win the election?" If "Other" or "Someone else": "If you had to choose, would you like to see George W. Bush reelected or would you prefer that a Democratic candidate win the election?"

Bush Democrat Other/
Unsure
% % %
1/6-11/04 48 38 14
12/19/03 - 1/4/04 44 42 14
12/15-17/03 49 37 14
10/15-19/03 42 42 16
9/17-22/03 45 43 12
7/14 - 8/5/03 43 38 19
6/24 - 7/8/03 47 37 16
4/03 48 34 18

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Jan. 8-9, 2004. N=842 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

.

"Suppose the next general election for president were being held TODAY and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and [see below], the Democrat -- who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican, or [see below], the Democrat?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
Dick
Gephardt
Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
1/8-9/04 50 43 7
12/18-19/03 54 38 8
12/11-12/03 51 40 9
11/6-7/03 49 44 7
10/23-24/03 51 42 7
10/9-10/03 49 42 9
9/25-26/03 53 39 8
7/03 51 42 7
11/02 56 37 7

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Jan. 7-8, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat [see below]?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision

George
W. Bush
Dick
Gephardt
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
1/04 56 30 12 2
11/03 49 36 12 3
7/03 52 33 12 3
5/03 56 30 12 2

 

Associated Press poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Jan. 5-7, 2004. N=774 registered voters nationwide. (Data from 11/03 and earlier co-sponsored by Cook Political Report.)

.

"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and [see below], the Democrat, for whom would you vote?" If "other" or "not sure": "Do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?" Each pairing asked of half the sample.

George
W. Bush
Howard
Dean
Other/
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
1/5-7/04 54 39 2 5
11/18-20/03 50 36 9 5
11/4-6/03 52 34 8 6
10/7-9/03 50 32 10 8

.

George
W. Bush
Richard
Gephardt
Other/
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
1/5-7/04 57 35 3 5
11/18-20/03 52 34 10 4
11/4-6/03 50 35 9 6

.

George
W. Bush
Wesley
Clark
Other/
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
1/5-7/04 49 42 2 7
10/7-9/03 48 33 9 10

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Jan. 2-5, 2004. N=800 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

.

"Thinking about the presidential election in November, in general, are you more likely to vote for George W. Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more to Bush or to the Democratic Party's candidate for president?"
Wording 2001-2003: "If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, in general, are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?"

Bush Democrat Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
1/2-5/04 56 40 1 3
10/3-6/02 53 37 2 8
Among registered voters:
12/5-7/03 48 41 4 7
10/24-26/03 46 43 6 5
9/8-10/03 47 43 3 7
8/25-26/03 51 39 4 6
7/25-27/03 49 40 5 6
7/18-20/03 46 42 3 9
6/12-18/03 51 39 3 7
4/22-23/03 49 36 3 12
3/29-30/03 51 36 4 9
3/14-15/03 45 42 5 8
2/24-26/03 47 39 4 10
12/16-17/02 51 37 3 9
10/3-6/02 54 35 1 10
7/29-31/02 51 34 3 12
6/21-23/02 51 37 3 9
4/29 - 5/1/02 56 32 3 9
10/01 56 29 2 13

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Dec. 19, 2003-Jan. 4, 2004. N=1,167 registered voters nationwide.

.

"Suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY, and the candidates were [see below]. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated.

Bush Dean Other/
Unsure
% % %
12/19/03 - 1/4/04 53 42 5
10/03 52 41 7

.

Bush Lieberman Other/
Unsure
% % %
12/19/03 - 1/4/04 52 42 6
10/03 53 41 6

.

Bush Edwards Other/
Unsure
% % %
12/19/03 - 1/4/04 54 39 7

.

Bush Clark Other/
Unsure
% % %
12/19/03 - 1/4/04 52 42 6
10/03 50 40 10

.

Bush Gephardt Other/
Unsure
% % %
12/19/03 - 1/4/04 52 42 6
10/03 49 43 8

 

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Dec. 30, 2003 & Jan. 1, 2004. Nationwide:

.

"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today and you had to choose between [see below], the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote: [see below]?" N=604 likely voters, MoE ± 4

.

George
W. Bush
Howard
Dean
Not
Sure
% % %

12/03 - 1/04

51 46 3

Among all registered voters:

11/03

52 40 8

9/03

52 42 6

.

George
W. Bush
Joseph
Lieberman
Not
Sure
% % %

12/03 - 1/04

52 46 2

Among all registered voters:

11/03

53 40 7

9/03

50 44 6
12/02 55 39 6

.

George
W. Bush
Dick
Gephardt
Not
Sure
% % %

12/03 - 1/04

53 44 3

Among all registered voters:

11/03

52 39 9

9/03

53 42 5

 

CBS News Poll. Dec. 21-22, 2003. N=685 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4 (total sample).

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and Howard Dean, the Democrat, do you think you would vote for George W. Bush or Howard Dean?"

George
W. Bush
Howard
Dean
Depends
(vol.)
None/
Won't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
ALL 55 35 3 1 6
Republicans 91 3 2 0 4
Democrats 20 70 2 1 7
Independents 57 28 3 1 11

 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Dec. 18-21, 2003. Registered voters nationwide (from a total sample of 1,001 adults). Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch.

.

"How about if the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and Howard Dean, the Democrat -- for whom would you vote?" Options rotated

.

George
W. Bush
Howard
Dean
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
12/18-21/03 56 38 4 1 2
10/26-29/03 53 39 3 1 3
Among ALL adults:
9/03 56 36 4 2 2

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Dec. 15-16, 2003. N=847 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

.

"If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat, or Bush, the Republican?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
Joe
Lieberman
Neither
(vol.)
Other
(vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
12/15-16/03 59 38 2 - 1
11/03 52 46 1 - 1
9/03 48 47 3 - 2

 

CBS News/New York Times Poll. Dec. 14-15, 2003. N=525 registered voters nationwide.

.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, do you think you will probably vote for George W. Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"

Bush Democrat Can't Say
Until Chosen
(vol.)
None/
Won't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
12/14-15/03 44 40 8 1 7
12/10-13/03 42 41 11 2 4
11/10-13/03 41 43 12 1 3
10/20-21/03 46 34 16 0 4
9/28 - 10/1/03 44 44 7 1 4

 

National Public Radio Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Dec. 10-15, 2003. N=1,002 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.

.

"I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2004, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and the Democratic nominee for president, for whom would you vote: Republican George W. Bush or the Democratic nominee for president?" If undecided, ask: "Which way do you lean as of today? Do you lean toward Republican George W. Bush or the Democratic nominee?" Options rotated

Bush Democrat

Other
Candidate
(vol.)

Don't
Know

% % % %

12/10-15/03

46 42 3 10
11/11-13/03 44 41    
9-10/03 46 46 2 6
5/03 50 35 1 13

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Dec. 14, 2003. N=512 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4.3.

.

"If President Bush runs for reelection in 2004, do you think you will probably vote for President Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"

Bush Democrat Another
Party's
Candidate
(vol.)
Depends
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % % %
12/14/03 44 33 1 9 12
12/13/03 46 40 1 6 7
11/03 43 40 2 8 8
9/03 42 40 2 9 7
7/03 45 36 3 10 7
5/03 47 32 2 12 7
4/03 52 24 4 14 6
1/03 41 34 3 16 6
12/02 42 28 4 20 6
10/02 * 45 31 3 17 4
  * Among registered voters

 

Quinnipiac University Poll. Dec. 4-8, 2003. N=1,071 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below] the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?"

.

Bush Dick
Gephardt
Someone
Else
(vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote
(vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
12/03 53 38 1 2 5
10/03 49 43 2 2 5
9/03 51 39 2 2 6
7/03 51 42 1 1 5
6/03 54 38 2 1 5
1-2/03 51 42 2 1 5

.

Bush Al
Sharpton
Someone
Else
(vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote
(vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
12/03 59 29 3 4 6

.

Bush Carol
Moseley
Braun
Someone
Else
(vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote
(vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
12/03 56 33 3 4 6

.

Bush Dennis
Kucinich
Someone
Else
(vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote
(vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
12/03 55 32 2 3 8

.

Bush Hillary
Rodham
Clinton
Someone
Else
(vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote
(vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
12/03 50 44 1 2 3
10/03 50 42 2 3 4
9/03 52 42 1 2 3
7/03 50 43 1 2 3
6/03 52 40 1 2 4
1-2/03 52 41 2 2 3

 

The Los Angeles Times Poll. Nov. 15-18, 2003. N=1,144 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 (total sample).

.

"Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be elected for a second term of office, or not?"

Does Does Not Don't
Know
   
% % %    
11/03 42 46 12    

.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, are you more likely to vote for Bush or more likely to vote for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?"

Bush Democrat Neither
(vol.)
Depends
(vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
11/03 38 42 2 6 12

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Nov. 14-16, 2003. N=876 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, would you say you are certain to vote for Bush, you are probably going to vote for him, you are leaning toward voting for him, you are unsure about voting for or against him, you are leaning against voting for him, you are probably going to vote against him, or would you say you are certain to vote against Bush?" Options rotated

.

    %
Certain to vote for Bush 24
Probably going to vote for Bush 13
Leaning toward voting for Bush 7
Unsure 13
Leaning against voting against Bush 4
Probably going to vote against Bush 6
Certain to vote against Bush 33

 

CBS News Poll. Nov. 10-13, 2003. N=501 registered voters nationwide.

.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, do you think you will probably vote for George W. Bush, or probably vote for the Democratic candidate, or don't you know yet?"

Bush Democrat Don't
Know Yet
Can't Say
Until
Chosen
(vol.)
None/
Won't
Vote (vol.)/
Don't Know
% % % % %
11/10-13/03 30 24 42 1 3
10/20-21/03 32 23 42 3 0
8/03 33 27 36 1 3
5/03 34 21 42 2 1

 

Marist College Poll. Oct. 27-29, 2003. N=788 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.

.

"Do you definitely plan to vote for George Bush for reelection as president in 2004 or do you definitely plan to vote against him?"

For

Against

Depends
(vol.)

Unsure

% % % %

10/03

38

44

7

11

4/03

40

30

14

16

2/03

36

34

10

20

1/03

37

35

12

16

10/02

42

29

11

18

4/02

41

24

15

20

1/02

43

21

13

23

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?"

George
Bush
Richard
Gephardt

Unsure

% % %

10/03

48

43

9

.

.

George
Bush
Howard
Dean

Unsure

% % %

10/03

49

41

10

.

.

George
Bush
Joe
Lieber-
man

Unsure

% % %

10/03

52

41

7

.

.

George
Bush
Wesley
Clark

Unsure

% % %

10/03

55

36

9

.


 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Oct. 26-29, 2003. Registered voters nationwide. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch.

.

"How about if the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and [see below], the Democrat -- for whom would you vote?" Options rotated

.

George
W. Bush
Richard
Gephardt
Neither
(vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
10/26-29/03 51 42 4 1 1
Among ALL adults:
9/03 54 39 3 2 2
4/03 60 35 2 1 2

.

George
W. Bush
Wesley
Clark
Neither
(vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
10/26-29/03 52 40 4 1 3

.

George
W. Bush
Joseph
Lieber-
man
Neither
(vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
10/26-29/03 56 38 3 1 1
Among ALL adults:
9/03 54 40 3 2 2
4/03 61 34 2 1 2

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Oct. 15-19, 2003. Nationwide.

.

"Suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY, and the candidates were [see below]. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated. N=557 registered voters.

George
W. Bush
Hillary
Clinton
Other/
Unsure
% % %
10/15-19/03 55 40 5

 

Zogby America Poll. Oct. 15-18, 2003. N=921 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.3.

.

"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat [see below], for whom would you vote?" Names rotated

.

George
W. Bush
Wesley
Clark
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
10/15-18/03 46 37 2 15
9/22-24/03 45 35 2 17
3/14-15/03 52 28 3 18
1/24-26/03 56 24 5 15

.

George
W. Bush
Howard
Dean
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
10/15-18/03 47 39 2 12
9/22-24/03 47 37 3 13
9/03 47 37 3 13
3/03 52 31 3 15
1/24-26/03 55 25 5 16

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
10/15-18/03 45 41 2 12
9/22-24/03 47 37 2 14
3/03 49 36 3 13
1/24-26/03 53 34 3 11
1/4-6/03 54 31 3 12

.

George
W. Bush
Richard
Gephardt
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
10/15-18/03 47 38 3 12
9/22-24/03 49 37 2 12
3/03 50 38 2 9
1/24-26/03 52 32 4 12
1/4-6/03 55 31 3 11

.

George
W. Bush
Joe
Lieberman
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
10/15-18/03 46 38 5 11
9/22-24/03 49 37 2 12
3/03 50 38 2 9
1/24-26/03 52 35 3 10
1/4-6/03 55 31 3 12

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 10-12, 2003. Registered voters nationwide.

.

"Please tell me whether you think each of the following political officeholders deserves to be reelected, or not. How about President Bush?"

Yes,
Deserves
No,
Does Not
No
Opinion
% % %
10/03 53 45 2
9/02 60 35 5
4-5/02 69 25 6
8/01 46 44 10

.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, would you say you will definitely vote for him, might vote for or against him, or will you definitely vote against him?" Options were rotated

Definitely
For
B
ush
Might Vote
For or
Against
Definitely Against
B
ush
No
Opinion
% % % %
10/03 38 24 38 -
1/03 36 31 32 1

 

Democratic National Committee poll conducted by Lake Snell Perry & Associates (D) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Oct. 1-6, 2003. N=1,157 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.9.

.

"I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2004, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and the Democratic nominee for president, for whom would you vote: Republican George W. Bush or the Democratic nominee for president?" If undecided, ask: "Well, if the election for president were held today and you had to decide right now, to which candidate would you lean: Republican George W. Bush or the Democratic nominee for president?"

Bush Democrat

Other
Candidate
(vol.)

Don't
Know

% % % %
10/03 42 46 2 10

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Sept. 23-24, 2003. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were held today, do you think you would be more likely to vote to reelect President Bush OR for the Democratic candidate?" Options rotated

Bush Democrat Depends
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
9/03 39 39 15 7
7/03 42 31 19 8
6/03 51 30 11 8
4/22-23/03 47 31 16 6
4/8-9/03 51 26 15 8
2/03 42 38 10 10
11/02 44 21 27 8
1/02 49 21 14 16

.

"In the 2004 presidential election, let's say the Republican ticket is President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of New York Senator Hillary Clinton for president and retired General Wesley Clark for vice president. If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"

Bush/
Cheney
Clinton/
Clark
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
9/03 50 39 5 6

.

"In the 2004 presidential election, let's say the Republican ticket is President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of retired General Wesley Clark for president and New York Senator Hillary Clinton for vice president. If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"

Bush/
Cheney
Clark/
Clinton
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
  % % % %
9/03 50 40 5 5

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Sept. 18-19, 2003. N=855 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4 (total sample).

.

"Suppose the next general election for president were being held TODAY and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and [see below], the Democrat -- who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican, or [see below], the Democrat?"

.

George
W. Bush
Al
Gore
Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
9/18-19/03 48 45 7
11/02 54 39 7
10/02 58 36 6
9/02 58 36 6

.

George
W. Bush
Hillary
Clinton
Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
9/18-19/03 50 43 7
9/11-12/03 51 41 8
11/02 55 40 5
10/02 58 38 4

 

Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Snell Perry & Associates (D) Battleground Survey. Sept. 7-10, 2003. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.

.

"Now, thinking about the election for U.S. president that will be held in November 2004 -- If the general election for U.S. president were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote: George W. Bush, the Republican, or the Democratic nominee for president?" If undecided: "And which candidate do you lean toward slightly?" Names rotated

Bush Democrat Other
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % %
9/03 47 43 1 9

 

Zogby International for the Draft Gore 2004 Committee. Sept. 5-9, 2003. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2.

.

"If the election for president of the United States were held today and the candidates were Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush, for whom would you vote?"

George
W. Bush
Al
Gore
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
9/03 48 46 4 3
3/03 51 42 2 6

 

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Sept. 3-4, 2003. N=883 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.3.

.

“If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, would you say you will definitely vote for him, might vote for or against him, or will you definitely vote against him?”

Definitely
For
Might
Vote For
Or Against
Definitely
Against
Not
S
ure
% % % %

9/03

29 25 41 5

.

“Now suppose Hillary Rodham Clinton were to run for the Democratic nomination for president. Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today, and you had to choose between Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote, Clinton or Bush?”

George
W. Bush
Hillary
Rodham
Clinton
Not
Sure
% % %

9/03

50 47 3

 

Zogby International for DraftWesleyClark.com. Aug. 16-19, 2003. N=1,019 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2.

.

General Election Trial Heats:

.

.

George
W. Bush
Joe
Lieberman
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
   
  % % %

%

8/03 48 43 3 6

.

.

George
W. Bush
Dick
Gephardt
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
   
  % % %

%

8/03 49 43 3 6

.

.

George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
   
  % % %

%

8/03 50 41 2 8

.

.

George
W. Bush
Howard
Dean
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
   
  % % %

%

8/03 50 40 2 8

.

.

George
W. Bush
Wesley
Clark
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
   
  % % %

%

8/03 49 37 4 10

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Aug. 12-13, 2003. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"In the 2004 presidential election, let’s say the Republican ticket is President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of former Vice President Al Gore for president and New York Senator Hillary Clinton for vice president. If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"

Bush/
Cheney
Gore/
Clinton
Neither
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
ALL 50 39 5 6
Men 55 35 5 5
Women 46 42 5 7

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. July 29-30, 2003. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"Considering how President Bush has performed so far, do you think he deserves to be reelected or would the country probably be better off with someone else as president?"

Deserves
Reelection
Someone
Else
Depends
(vol.)
Not
Sure
   
  % % %

%

7/03 47 40 8 5
8/01 36 42 13 9

.

"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were . . . ?"

.

.

George
W. Bush
Joe
Lieberman
Not Sure/
Other
(vol.)

Would
Not Vote
(vol.)

   
  % % %

%

7/03 52 33 12 3
5/03 57 31 10 2
12/02 56 31 10 3
8/02 55 30 14 1
6/01 53 32 14 1

 

Andres McKenna Research. July 8-10, 2003. N=600 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

.

General Election Trial Heats:

George
W. Bush
Joe
Lieberman
Undecided
% % %
7/03 51 32 18

.

George
W. Bush
Dick
Gephardt
Undecided
% % %
7/03 52 30 18

 

Penn Schoen & Berland Associates (D) for the Democratic Leadership Council. June 29-July 1, 2003. N=1,225 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.8 (total sample).

.

"Do you think President Bush deserves to be reelected or is it time to give somebody else a chance?"

Bush Somebody
Else
Not
Sure
% % %
ALL 48 42 10
Men 52 38 10
Women 43 46 11

 

Penn Schoen & Berland Associates (D) for the New Democrat Network. June 8-15, 2003.

N=1,001 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.

.

"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were a Democratic candidate or Republican George W. Bush, for whom would you vote?"

Bush Democrat Not
Sure
% % %
6/03 45 36 19

 

ABC News Poll. May 28-June 1, 2003. N=1,029 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch.

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?" Options rotated

George
W. Bush
Hillary
Clinton
Neither
(vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % % %
5-6/03 58 34 4 2 2

 

Zogby America Poll. March 14-15, 2003. N=1,129 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat [see below], for whom would you vote?"

George
W. Bush
Hillary
Clinton
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
3/14-15/03 53 39 3 6

.

George
W. Bush
John
Edwards
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % %
3/14-15/03 51 32 3 14
1/24-26/03 53 29 4 13

 

Quinnipiac University Poll. Feb. 26-March 3, 2003. N=1,232 voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.8 (total sample).

.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, in general, are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?"

Bush Demo-
crat
Other
(vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % %
ALL 44 48 2 6
Men 48 44 3 5
Women 39 51 2 7

 

Quinnipiac University Poll. Jan. 29-Feb. 3, 2003. N=1,307 voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.7 (total sample).

.

"Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below] the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?"

ALL Men Women
% % %
George W. Bush (R) 50 53 48
John Edwards (D) 39 36 42
Someone else (vol.) 2 2 1
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 1 2 1
Don't know 7 7 8

 

The Los Angeles Times Poll. Jan. 30-Feb. 2, 2003. N=1,197 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 (total sample).

.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, are you more likely to vote for Bush or more likely to vote for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?"
ALL Men Women
% % %
George W. Bush 45 49 42
Democratic candidate 40 37 43
Don't know 15 14 15

 

The Los Angeles Times Poll. Dec. 12-15, 2002. N=1,305 adults nationwide. (This question asked of registered voters only.)

.

"Will you definitely vote to reelect George W. Bush as president in 2004, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him or would you definitely not vote to reelect George W. Bush as president in 2004?"

Definitely
Bush
Probably
Bush
Probably
Not Bush
Definitely
Not Bush
Don't
Know
% % % % %
12/02 28 24 10 28 10

 

CBS News/New York Times Poll. Nov. 20-24, 2002. N=996 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (total sample).

.

 

"If George W. Bush is renominated as the Republican Party's nominee for president in 2004, do you think you will probably vote for George W. Bush, or vote for the Democratic candidate, or don't you know yet?"

Bush Democrat Don't
Know Yet
Don't
Know
 
% % % %
  ALL 32 18 47 3  
  Republicans 73 0 26 1  
  Democrats 9 45 45 1  
  Independents 21 10 65 4  

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Nov. 19-20, 2002. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 (total sample).

.

"Do you think Florida Governor Jeb Bush should run for president in 2008?"

Yes No Up To
Him (vol.)
Not
Sure
   
  % % % %
ALL 12 62 4 22
Republicans 20 46 5 29

.

"Thinking about the 2004 presidential elections, if the elections were held today, for whom do you think you would vote if the candidates were [see below]?" Probe for leaners; push for decision; rotate choices

George
W. Bush
Al Gore Someone
Else
(vol.)
Not
Sure

Would
Not Vote
(vol.)

 
  % % % %

%

11/02 54 28 4 13 1
8/02 50 37 5 7 1
12/01 61 23 4 11

1

6/01 50 38 7 4

1

1/01 39 36 6 19 -

 

CNN/Time Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Nov. 13-14, 2002. N=1,006 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1 (total sample).

         

.

 
"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today and you had to choose between Al Gore, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote: Gore or Bush?"
    ALL Repub-
licans
Indepen-
dents
Demo-
crats
 
    % % % %  
  George W. Bush (R) 57 94 59 25  
  Al Gore (D) 40 6 36 72  
  Not sure 3 - 5 3  

 

Quinnipiac University Poll. Nov. 7-11, 2002. N=1,069 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 (total sample).
         

.

 

"Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?"

    ALL Men Women    
    % % %    
  George W. Bush (R) 53 59 48    
  Al Gore (D) 41 35 46    
  Someone else (vol.) 2 2 2    
  Wouldn't vote (vol.) 1 1 1    
  Don't know/No answer 3 2 3    
             
  George W. Bush (R) 55 62 50    
  Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 38 31 45    
  Someone else (vol.) 2 2 2    
  Wouldn't vote (vol.) 1 2 1    
  Don't know/No answer 3 3 3    
         

.

 
  George W. Bush (R) 54 59 50    
  Joe Lieberman (D) 37 33 41    
  Someone else (vol.) 2 2 1    
  Wouldn't vote (vol.) 1 1 1    
  Don't know/No answer 6 4 7    

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Nov. 8-10, 2002. N=1,014 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
         

.

 

"Suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held today. If George W. Bush runs for reelection, are you more likely to vote for Bush, the Republican, or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of today, do you lean more to Bush, the Republican, or to a Democratic candidate?"

    Bush Democrat Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other
(vol.)
Not
Sure
    % % % % %
  11/02 55 39 3 1 2

 

CBS News Poll. Nov. 2-4, 2002. N=1,867 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.

.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, do you think you will probably vote for Bush, or do you think you will probably vote for the Democratic candidate, or don't you know yet?"

Probably
Bush
Probably
Democrat
Don't
Know
 
% % %  
  11/02 40 26 34  

 

Bloomberg News Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. June 11-16, 2002. N=1,201 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"Thinking ahead, suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held today.  If you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, or Al Gore, the Democrat, who would you vote for?"
Bush Gore Other
(vol.)
Won't
Vote
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % % %
6/02 56 32 3 3 6
4-5/02 55 34 2 2 8
1/02 64 27 2 2 5
12/01 60 29 3 1 8
11/01 59 30 2 2 7
9/01 58 29 2 2 9
8/01 46 43 3 2 5

 

Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Snell Perry & Associates (D) Battleground Survey. June 9-11, 2002. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide.

.

"In thinking about the 2004 election for president, do you think George W. Bush has performed his job as president well enough to deserve reelection, or do you think it's time to give a new person a chance?" Half sample (Form A)
Deserves
Reelection
Time
For New
Person
Depends/
Unsure
% % %
6/02 57 29 14

.

"In thinking about the 2004 election for president, if the election for president were held today, would you definitely vote for George W. Bush, consider voting for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else?" Half sample (Form B)
Definitely
Bush
Consider Someone
Else
Definitely
Someone
Else
Unsure
% % % %
6/02 43 29 23 6

 

The Gallup Poll. Nov. 2-4, 2001. N=1,012 adults nationwide.

.

"Suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included George W. Bush as the Republican candidate and Al Gore as the Democratic candidate. Would you vote for [rotate] George W. Bush, the Republican, or Al Gore, the Democrat? If "Undecided": "As of today do you lean toward Bush, the Republican, or Gore, the Democrat?" Asked of registered voters
Bush Gore Other
(vol.)
No
Opinion
% % % %
11/01 60 36 2 2
8/01 49 48 - 3
6/01 51 42 1 6
12/00 41 50 1 8

 


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