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   White House 2008: General Election Trial Heats (p. 3)


Polls listed chronologically.

STATE POLLS are in our subscriber area. INFO     

.

         

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. June 4-5, 2008. N=921 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"Now suppose that Barack Obama were the Democratic candidate for president and Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate for vice president, and John McCain were the Republican candidate for president and Mitt Romney were the Republican candidate for vice president. If the ballot in your state only included the Democratic and Republican tickets, who would you be more likely to vote for?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?" Options rotated

.

McCain/
Romney
Obama/
Clinton
Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
6/4-5/08 46 52 2 - -

.

"If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: Clinton, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?" Options rotated

.

McCain Clinton Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
6/4-5/08 48 49 2 1 -
4/28-30/08 44 49 4 - 3
3/14-16/08 47 49 3 1 -
2/1-3/08 47 50 2 - -
1/9-10/08 48 50 1 - -
12/6-9/07 50 48 2 - -
6/22-24/07 47 49 3 - 1

 

Gallup Poll. June 4, 2008. N=868 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

General Election Trial Heats:

.

McCain Obama      

 

% %      

6/4/08

45 45      

.

McCain Obama/
Clinton
     

 

% %      

6/4/08

45 50      

 

CBS News Poll. May 30-June 3, 2008. N=930 registered voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were [see below], the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican, would you vote for [see below] or John McCain?"

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

5/30 - 6/3/08

41 50 9    

5/1-3/08

41 53 6    

4/25-29/08

43 48 9    

3/28 - 4/2/08

43 48 9    

3/15-18/08

44 46 10    

2/20-24/08

46 46 8    

 

Gallup Poll daily tracking. Five-day rolling average. N=approx. 4,400 registers voters nationwide. MoE 2.

.

General Election Trial Heat:

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) Unsure

Survey end date

% % % % %

.

6/3/08

45 48 1 4 3

6/2/08

45 46 1 4 3

6/1/08

45 47 1 4 3

5/31/08

45 47 1 4 3

5/29/08

45 47 1 4 3

5/28/08

45 47 1 4 3

5/27/08

44 48 1 4 3

5/25/08

45 48 1 4 3

5/24/08

44 49 1 3 3

5/23/08

45 49 1 3 3

5/22/08

44 49 1 4 3

5/21/08

44 49 1 4 3

5/20/08

44 48 1 4 3

5/19/08

44 48 1 4 4

5/18/08

44 48 1 4 3

5/17/08

45 47 1 3 3

5/16/08

45 47 1 3 3

5/15/08

45 48 1 3 3

5/14/08

45 48 1 3 3

5/13/08

45 48 1 3 3

5/12/08

44 49 1 4 3

5/11/08

44 49 1 4 3

5/10/08

44 48 1 4 4

5/9/08

44 48 1 4 3

5/8/08

44 48 1 4 3

5/7/08

45 47 1 4 3

5/6/08

45 46 1 4 3

5/5/08

45 46 1 4 3

5/4/08

46 46 1 4 3

5/3/08

46 45 1 5 3

5/2/08

46 45 1 5 4

5/1/08

46 45 1 5 4

4/30/08

46 46 1 5 3

4/29/08

45 46 1 5 3

4/28/08

45 47 1 4 3

4/27/08

44 47 1 5 3

4/26/08

44 47 1 4 3

4/25/08

44 47 1 4 3

4/24/08

45 47 1 4 3

4/23/08

46 46 1 4 3

4/22/08

47 46 1 4 3

4/21/08

46 45 1 4 4

4/20/08

46 45 1 5 4

4/19/08

45 46 1 4 4

4/18/08

44 46 1 5 4

4/17/08

44 46 1 5 4

4/16/08

45 46 1 5 4

4/15/08

44 46 1 5 4

4/14/08

44 46 1 5 3

4/13/08

45 46 1 5 4

4/12/08

45 46 1 5 3

4/11/08

45 46 1 5 4

4/10/08

45 46 1 5 4

4/9/08

46 45 1 5 3

4/8/08

46 46 1 5 3

4/7/08

46 46 1 4 3

4/6/08

47 45 1 5 3

4/5/08

47 45 1 4 3

4/4/08

47 45 1 4 3

4/3/08

46 45 1 4 3

4/2/08

47 45 1 4 3

4/1/08

47 45 1 4 3

3/31/08

47 45 1 4 3

3/30/08

47 45 1 4 3

3/29/08

48 44 1 4 3

3/28/08

48 44 1 4 3

3/27/08

48 44 1 4 3

3/26/08

47 44 1 4 4

3/25/08

47 45 1 4 3

3/24/08

46 45 1 4 3

3/22/08

47 45 1 4 3

3/21/08

47 45 1 4 3

3/20/08

48 45 1 4 3

3/19/08

48 45 1 3 3

3/18/08

48 45 1 4 3

3/17/08

46 46 1 4 3

3/16/08

46 46 1 4 3

3/15/08

46 46 1 4 3

3/14/08

46 46 1 4 3

3/13/08

46 46 1 4 3

3/12/08

45 47 1 4 3

3/11/08

45 47 1 4 3

 

USA Today/Gallup Poll. May 30-June 1, 2008. N=803 likely voters nationwide. MoE 4. RV = registered voters

.

"Suppose the election were being held today. If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat or McCain, the Republican?" Names rotated

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %

5/30 - 6/1/08

44

48

1

4

3

5/1-3/08

49

46

1

3

1

4/18-20/08

45

49

1

2

3

3/14-16/08

46

51

-

1

1

2/21-24/08

50

46

1

2

1

2/8-10/08

49

48

1

2

1

1/10-13/08

50

47

1

2

1

11/11-14/07 RV

44

50

-

3

2

6/11-14/07 RV

46

49

-

3

2

2/9-11/07 RV

47

50

-

1

1

10/21-23/05 RV

53

43

1

2

1

7/25-28/05 RV

50

45

-

2

3


 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. May 21-25, 2008. N=1,242 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5. April survey conducted by Abt SRBI.

.

"Now, suppose the 2008 presidential election were being held TODAY. If you had to choose between [see below], who would you vote for?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

5/21-25/08

44 48 8    

4/23-27/08

45 49 6    

3/19-22/08

44 49 7    

2/20-24/08

45 50 5    

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. May 21-22, 2008. N=1,205 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"If the presidential election were being held TODAY and you HAD TO CHOOSE between [see below], the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward [see below], the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican?" Names rotated

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

5/21-22/08

44 48 8    

4/24-25/08

45 48 7    

4/16-17/08

43 47 10    

3/5-6/08

46 48 6    

6/20-21/07

45 50 5    

5/2-3/07

44 50 6    

2/28 - 3/1/07

46 47 7    

1/24-25/07

44 50 6    

1/17-18/07

47 48 5    

12/6-7/06

43 50 7    

 

Reuters/Zogby Poll. May 15-18, 2008. N=1,076 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

General Election Trial Heats:

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

5/15-18/08

43

43

 

 

 

4/10-12/08

46

41

 

 

 

3/13-14/08

48

40

6

7

 

2/13-16/08

50

38

6

7

 

1/10-11/08

47

42

 

 

 

12/12-14/07

49

42

 

 

 

7/12-14/07

43

45

8

5

 
5/17-20/07

47

43

6

4

 
2/22-24/07

47

39

5

9

 

12/6-8/05

52

37

6

5

 

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Nader (I) Barr (L) Other/Unsure
% % % % %

5/15-18/08

40

41

4

3

12

4/10-12/08

45

39

3

2

12


 

Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. May 12-18, 2008. N=876 registered voters. MoE 3.2.

.

"If the 2008 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote? Would you say [see below]?"

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Unsure    
% % %    

5/12-18/08

39 44 17    

4/1-6/08

45 38 17    

.

McCain/
Rice (R)
Obama/
Clinton (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

5/12-18/08

40 47 13    

.

McCain/
Romney (R)
Obama/
Clinton (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

5/12-18/08

39 49 12    

.

McCain/
Pawlenty (R)
Obama/
Clinton (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

5/12-18/08

37 49 14    

 

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). May 13-15, 2008. N=1,014 likely voters nationwide.

.

"Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. I know it is a long way off, but if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat [see below] and Republican John McCain, for whom would you vote?"

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

5/13-15/08

47 49 2 3  

 

George Washington University Battleground Poll conducted by the Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). May 11-14, 2008. N=1,018 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1 (for all likely voters).

.

"Now, even though the 2008 elections are a long way off: If the election for president were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate?" If unsure: "And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?" Options rotated

.

Republican Democrat Unsure    
% % %    

5/11-14/08

41 49 10    

12/9-12/07

41 47 12    

7/15-18/07

38 49 14    

.

"If the election for president were held today and you had to make a choice between these two candidates, for whom would you vote: John McCain, the Republican, or [see below], the Democrat?" If unsure: "And which candidate do you lean toward slightly?" Names rotated. Each match-up asked of half the sample.

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Unsure    
% % %    

5/11-14/08

51 43 6    

1/8-11/07

53 43 4    

 

Quinnipiac University Poll. May 8-12, 2008. N=1,745 registered voters nationwide. MoE 2.4.

.

"If the 2008 election for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below] the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?"

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

5/8-12/08

41

46

2

4

7

10/23-29/07

44

44

2

3

6

8/7-13/07

41

47

3

3

6

6/5-11/07

42

44

3

4

7

4/25 - 5/1/07

46

41

2

3

8

2/13-19/07

46

44

1

3

6

11/28 - 12/4/05

44

40

3

3

11

3/2-7/05

43

41

2

1

13


 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. May 8-11, 2008. N=1,122 adults nationwide. MoE 3. Fieldwork by TNS. RV = registered voters

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were John McCain, the Republican, and [see below], the Democrat, for whom would you vote?" Options rotated. Includes leaners.

.

McCain (R) Obama (D) Other/
Neither (vol.)
Won't Vote
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
5/8-11/08 Adults

44

51

3

1

1

4/10-13/08 RV

44

49

3

3

2

2/28 - 3/2/08 RV

40

53

2

1

3

1/30 - 2/1/08 RV

48

47

2

1

2

1/16-19/07 Adults

45

47

3

1

3

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Other/
Neither (vol.)
Won't Vote
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
5/8-11/08 Adults

46

49

2

1

1

4/10-13/08 RV

48

45

3

2

1

2/28 - 3/2/08 RV

47

49

2

1

1

1/30 - 2/1/08 RV

50

45

1

1

2

10/29 - 11/1/07 Adults

43

52

3

1

1

1/16-19/07 Adults

45

50

3

1

1


 

National Public Radio Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). May 7-8, 10, 2008. N=800 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"If the election for president were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were John McCain, Republican, and [see below], Democrat?" If unsure: "Which way do you lean as of today, towards [see below]?"

.

McCain (R) Obama (D) Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

5/7-8, 10/08

43 48 1 7  

1/29-31/08

48 47 3 2  

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

5/7-8, 10/08

46 45 2 6  

1/29-31/08

48 45 3 3  

12/7, 9-10/06

48

41

2

9

 

 

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. May 1-8, 2008. N=1,986 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If the November 2008 general election for president were being held today and the choices were [see below], the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican, for whom would you vote: [see below] or McCain, or would you vote for a candidate from some other party?" Names rotated. Results include leaners.

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Other Unsure  
% % % %  

5/1-8/08

38 47 4 11  

2/21-25/08

46 40 5 9  

1/18-22/08

42 46 5 7  

10/19-22/07

38 48 6 8  

6/7-10/07

45 41 9 5  

4/5-9/07

42 45 10 3  

12/8-11/06

50 36 10 4  

 

Ipsos Public Affairs poll. April 30-May 4, 2008. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE 3.1. 4/23-27/08 and earlier: Associated Press/Ipsos Poll.

     

"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?" If neither or unsure: "Well, do you lean more toward [see below]?" Names rotated

     
McCain (R) Clinton (D) Neither (vol.) Unsure
% % % %

4/30 - 5/4/08

42

47

8

2

4/23-27/08

41

50

7

2

4/7-9/08

45

48

5

2

2/22-24/08

43

48

7

2

2/7-10/08

45

46

7

2


 

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. April 30-May 3, 2008. N=803 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"Now, suppose the general election for president in 2008 were being held today between Republican John McCain and Democrat [see below], for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Which way would you lean as of today?" Names rotated

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Unsure    
% % %    

4/30 - 5/3/08

43 46 11    

3/28-31/08

50 41 10    

2/14-17/08

48 40 12    

1/10-12/08

48 45 8    
5/16-20/07 43 45 12    
4/26-30/07 45 45 11    
1/11-14/07 48 39 12    
11/8-12/06 45 40 15    
7/20-23/06 49 37 15    
6/21-25/06 50 40 11    
5/18-21/06 49 38 13    
2/16-19/06 50 40 11    
1/12-15/06 52 36 12    
11/11-15/05 52 39 9    

.

"Now, suppose the general election for president in 2008 were being held today between Republican John McCain, Democrat [see below], and independent Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Which way would you lean as of today?" Names rotated

.

McCain (R) Obama (D) Nader (I) Unsure  
% % % %  

4/30 - 5/3/08

40 45 5 9  

3/28-31/08

45 41 3 11  

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Nader (I) Unsure  
% % % %  

4/30 - 5/3/08

42 44 4 10  

3/28-31/08

46 39 5 10  

 

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. April 17-20, 2008. N=802 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"I know the election in November is a long way off, but if [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and Arizona Senator John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican?" If neither/unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican?" Names rotated

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  
4/17-20/08 45 45 3 7  
3/6-9/08 47 45 1 6  
1/31 - 2/2/08 45 41 3 10  
4/20-22/07 43 42 2 13  
1/18-21/07 48 42 4 6  
12/14-17/06 40 39 5 16  
11/9-12/06 44 42 4 9  
6/1-4/06 47 40 6 7  
4/6-9/06 46 37 7 9  

2/23-26/06

48 36 5 11  

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. April 16-17, 2008. N=1,209 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"Suppose that neither Clinton nor Obama is able to secure the Democratic nomination and the party turns to Al Gore as its presidential candidate. If the presidential election were being held TODAY and you HAD TO CHOOSE between Al Gore, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Gore, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican?" Names rotated

.

McCain (R) Gore (D) Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

4/16-17/08

46 49 5    

 

Zogby Poll. March 13-14, 2008. N=1,001 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.2.

.

General Election Trial Heats:

.

McCain (R) Obama (D) Nader (I) Other/Unsure  
% % % %  

3/13-14/08

44

39

5

11

 

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Nader (I) Other/Unsure  
% % % %  

3/13-14/08

45

39

6

11

 

 

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. Feb. 14-17, 2008. N=803 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"Now, suppose the general election for president in 2008 were being held today between Republican [see below] and Democrat [see below], for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Which way would you lean as of today?" Names rotated

.

Huckabee (R) Obama (D) Unsure    
% % %    

2/14-17/08

38 49 13    

1/10-12/08

31 54 15    

.

Huckabee (R) Clinton (D) Unsure    
% % %    

2/14-17/08

39 49 12    

1/10-12/08

40 49 11    

.

"Now, suppose the general election for president in 2008 were being held today between Republican [see below], Democrat [see below], and independent Mike Bloomberg, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Which way would you lean as of today?" Names rotated

.

McCain (R) Obama (D) Bloomberg (I) Unsure  
% % % %  

2/14-17/08

39 44 6 11  

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Bloomberg (I) Unsure  
% % % %  

2/14-17/08

40 42 6 11  

.

Huckabee (R) Obama (D) Bloomberg (I) Unsure  
% % % %  

2/14-17/08

33 47 8 12  

.

Huckabee (R) Clinton (D) Bloomberg (I) Unsure  
% % % %  

2/14-17/08

35 45 7 12  

 

Time Poll conducted by abt SRBI. Feb. 1-4, 2008. N=958 likely voters nationwide. RV = registered voters

.

"Turning now to the presidential election in November: If the candidates were [see below], the Democrat, and [see below], the Republican, and you had to choose, for which of these candidates would you vote?" If unsure: "Do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat, or more toward [see below], the Republican?" Names rotated

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %

2/1-4/08

46 46 2 4 4

4/5-9/07 RV

46 44 1 5 4

3/23-26/07 RV

48 42 1 4 5

3/9-12/07 RV

43 44 1 5 6

2/23-26/07 RV

45 46 2 4 4

1/22-23/07 RV

47 47 - 2 3

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Feb. 1-3, 2008. N=974 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and [see below] were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or [see below], the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?" Names rotated

.

Romney (R) Obama (D) Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
2/1-3/08 36 59 3 1 1
1/9-10/08 37 59 3 - -
12/6-9/07 41 54 3 - 1

.

Romney (R) Clinton (D) Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
2/1-3/08 41 56 2 - -
1/9-10/08 40 58 2 - -
12/6-9/07 43 54 3 - 1

 

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. Jan. 31-Feb. 2, 2008. N=855 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.4.

.

"I know the election in November is a long way off, but if [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and [see below] were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or [see below], the Republican?" If neither or unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat, or [see below], the Republican?" Names rotated

.

Romney (R) Clinton (D) Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  
1/31 - 2/2/08 42 48 3 7  

10/18-21/07

37 46 6 12  

6/21-23/07

38 48 2 12  

6/15-17/07

38 45 1 16  

.

Romney (R) Obama (D) Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  
1/31 - 2/2/08 41 50 2 8  

6/21-23/07

34 47 2 17  

6/15-17/07

31 47 2 20  

 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Jan. 30-Feb. 1, 2008. N=1,249 adults nationwide. Fieldwork by TNS. Current results based on registered voters.

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were [see below], the Republican, and [see below], the Democrat, for whom would you vote?" Options rotated. Includes leaners.

.

Romney (R) Clinton (D) Other/
Neither (vol.)
Won't Vote
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
1/30 - 2/1/08 RV

43

51

3

1

1

10/29 - 11/1/07 Adults

39

57

3

1

1

.

Romney (R) Obama (D) Other/
Neither (vol.)
Won't Vote
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
1/30 - 2/1/08 RV

36

57

3

1

2


 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Jan. 30-31, 2008. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3. LV = likely voters

     

"Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 general election were held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were [see below]?" Names rotated

     
John
McCain (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Mike
Bloomberg (I)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % % %

1/30-31/08

41

41

6

12

     
Mitt
Romney (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Mike
Bloomberg (I)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % % %

1/30-31/08

30

46

8

16

     
Mitt
Romney (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % %

1/30-31/08

36

50

14

11/13-14/07

37

50

14

10/9-10/07

38

50

11

7/17-18/07

35

50

15

6/5-6/07

36

46

18

     
Mitt
Romney (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % %

1/30-31/08

33

51

16


 

National Public Radio Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Jan. 29-31, 2008. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide.

.

"I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the election for president in November, if the election were held today, for whom would you vote: the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?" Results include leaners. N=1,000 likely voters, MoE 3.
10/07 & earlier: "Thinking more about the presidential election in 2008 -- If the election for president were being held today, for whom would you vote: the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?" If unsure: "As of today, which way do you lean, more toward the Republican candidate or Democratic candidate?" Options rotated

.

Republican Democrat Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

1/29-31/08

44 49 1 6  

10/4, 6-7/07

36 49 3 13  

4/26-29/07

40 51 3 6  

12/7, 9-10/06

28 46 4 23  

.

"Now let me ask you again about your vote for president but with the candidate names. I know it is a long way off, but if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat [see below] and Republican [see below], for whom would you vote?" N=500 likely voters. Results include leaners.

.

McCain (R) Obama (D) Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

1/29-31/08

48 47 3 2  

.

McCain (R) Clinton (D) Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

1/29-31/08

48 45 3 3  

12/7, 9-10/06

48

41

2

9

 

.

Romney (R) Obama (D) Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

1/29-31/08

41 53 3 3  

12/7, 9-10/06

27

43

3

27

 

.

Romney (R) Clinton (D) Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

1/29-31/08

44 49 2 5  

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Jan. 20-22, 2008. N=approx. 500 adults nationwide. MoE 4.4. RV = registered voters

.

"If the next election for president were held today, and [see below] were the Republican candidate and [see below] were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?"

.

Huckabee (R) Clinton (D) Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

1/20-22/08

41 50 1 4 4

12/14-17/07

44 46 1 5 4

.

.

Romney (R) Clinton (D) Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

1/20-22/08

36 52 2 6 4

12/14-17/07

41 48 2 5 4

11/1-5/07

39 50 1 5 5

9/7-10/07

38 51 - 6 5

12/8-11/06 RV

37 47 2 5 9

.

.

Giuliani (R) Clinton (D) Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

1/20-22/08

37 52 1 6 4

12/14-17/07

43 46 2 5 4

11/1-5/07

45 46 - 5 4

9/7-10/07

42 49 - 5 4

7/27-30/07

41 47 1 7 4

6/8-11/07

43 48 1 5 3

3/2-5/07

47 42 3 4 4

.

.

Huckabee (R) Obama (D) Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

1/20-22/08

33 55 2 4 6

12/14-17/07

36 48 3 6 7

.

.

Romney (R) Obama (D) Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

1/20-22/08

35 48 2 7 8

11/1-5/07

36 48 1 6 9

9/7-10/07

34 51 1 7 7

.

.

Giuliani (R) Obama (D) Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

1/20-22/08

34 54 1 3 8

12/14-17/07

40 49 3 4 4

11/1-5/07

42 44 1 6 7

7/27-30/07

40 45 2 7 6

3/2-5/07

45 39 3 4 9

 

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. Jan. 18-22, 2008. N=approx. 650 registered voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"If the November 2008 general election for president were being held today and the choices were [see below], the Democrat, and [see below], the Republican, for whom would you vote: [see below] or [see below], or would you vote for a candidate from some other party?" Names rotated. Results include leaners.

.

Mike
Huckabee (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other Unsure  
% % % %  

1/18-22/08

38 51 5 6  

.

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other Unsure  
% % % %  

1/18-22/08

39 50 5 6  

11/30 - 12/3/07

39 47 7 7  

10/19-22/07

34 49 6 11  

6/7-10/07

43 41 10 6  

4/5-9/07

37 44 11 8  

12/8-11/06

36 42 15 7  

.

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other Unsure  
% % % %  

1/18-22/08

37 53 5 5  

11/30 - 12/3/07

42 46 6 6  

10/19-22/07

41 47 8 4  

6/7-10/07

49 39 9 3  

4/5-9/07

48 42 6 4  

.

.

Mike
Huckabee (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other Unsure  
% % % %  

1/18-22/08

37 47 6 10  

.

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other Unsure  
% % % %  

1/18-22/08

35 46 7 12  

11/30 - 12/3/07

33 45 9 13  

10/19-22/07

32 42 10 16  

6/7-10/07

34 50 7 9  

4/5-9/07

31 50 7 12  

.

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other Unsure  
% % % %  

1/18-22/08

32 49 8 11  

11/30 - 12/3/07

39 44 7 10  

10/19-22/07

40 43 5 12  

6/7-10/07

41 46 5 8  

4/5-9/07

42 46 6 6  

 

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Jan. 10-13, 2008. N=1,598 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3. RV = registered voters

.

". . . Suppose the election were being held today -- If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and [see below] were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for: [see below], the Democrat or [see below], the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat or [see below], the Republican?" Names rotated

.

Mike
Huckabee (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other
(vol.)
Neither
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

1/10-13/08

45

51

1

2

2

12/14-16/07 RV

44

53

-

2

1

.

Mike
Huckabee (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other
(vol.)
Neither
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

1/10-13/08

43

53

-

3

1

12/14-16/07 RV

42

53

-

3

2


 

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. Jan. 10-12, 2008. N=803 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"Now, suppose the general election for president in 2008 were being held today between Republican [see below] and Democrat [see below] -- for whom would you vote?" If Unsure: "Which way would you lean as of today?" Names rotated

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

1/10-12/08

27 57 15    

4/26-30/07

25 54 21    

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

1/10-12/08

39 50 11    

4/26-30/07

35 50 15    

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

1/10-12/08

34 56 10    
5/16-20/07 41 43 16    
4/26-30/07 39 48 13    
1/11-14/07 41 38 20    

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

1/10-12/08

41 51 8    
5/16-20/07 45 43 13    
4/26-30/07 47 43 10    
1/11-14/07 48 40 12    

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

1/10-12/08

31 51 18    
5/16-20/07 43 42 15    
4/26-30/07 41 47 13    
1/11-14/07 40 41 18    

.

John
McCain (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

1/10-12/08

48 40 12    
5/16-20/07 39 44 16    
4/26-30/07 37 48 14    
1/11-14/07 45 35 20    
11/8-12/06 42 35 22    
6/21-25/06 49 36 16    

.

Mike
Huckabee (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

1/10-12/08

33 48 19    

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

1/10-12/08

34 50 16    

4/26-30/07

26 52 21    

 

CBS News/New York Times Poll. Jan. 9-12, 2008. N=995 registered voters nationwide.

.

"If the November 2008 election for president were being held today, would you probably vote for the Republican candidate or would you probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"

.

Republican
Candidate
Democratic
Candidate
Other
(vol.)
Depends
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

1/9-12/08

32 50 1 8 9

12/5-9/07

31 48 1 10 10

10/12-16/07

33 48 1 9 9

9/4-9/07

32 48 1 10 9

7/9-17/07

32 47 2 10 9

6/26-28/07

28 55 1 7 9

5/18-23/07

33 49 1 10 7

3/7-11/07

32 51 0 10 7

 

Reuters/Zogby Poll. Jan. 10-11, 2008. N=1,006 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.2.

.

General Election Trial Heats:

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

1/10-11/08

37

47

 

 

 

12/12-14/07

44

46

 

 

 

7/12-14/07

38

48

7

7

 
5/17-20/07

40

48

6

6

 
2/22-24/07

35

45

5

15

 

.

Mike
Huckabee (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
     
% %      

1/10-11/08

38

47

 

 

 

12/12-14/07

48

43

 

 

 

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

1/10-11/08

35

46

 

 

 

12/12-14/07

46

42

 

 

 

7/12-14/07

41

47

9

4

 
5/17-20/07

48

43

5

4

 
2/22-24/07

47

40

4

9

 

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

1/10-11/08

34

53

 

 

 

12/12-14/07

35

53

 

 

 

7/12-14/07

35

49

6

10

 
5/17-20/07

35

52

4

9

 
2/22-24/07

29

51

4

16

 

.

Mike
Huckabee (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
     
% %      

1/10-11/08

36

51

 

 

 

12/12-14/07

42

47

 

 

 

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

1/10-11/08

34

51

 

 

 

12/12-14/07

39

48

 

 

 

7/12-14/07

42

46

4

8

 
5/17-20/07

42

48

4

6

 
2/22-24/07

40

46

3

11

 

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Jan. 9-10, 2008. N=840 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and [see below] were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or [see below], the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?" Names rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani
(R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
1/9-10/08 42 55 3 - -
12/6-9/07 45 51 3 - -
11/2-4/07 45 51 4 1 1
10/12-14/07 47 49 3 - 1
9/7-9/07 46 50 3 - 1
6/22-24/07 48 49 3 - 1

.

Mike
Huckabee (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
1/9-10/08 42 56 1 - -
12/6-9/07 44 54 2 - -

.

Rudy
Giuliani
(R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
1/9-10/08 40 56 4 - -
12/6-9/07 45 52 3 - -
9/7-9/07 49 45 5 - 1
6/22-24/07 48 46 3 - 2

.

Mike
Huckabee (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
1/9-10/08 39 58 2 - -
12/6-9/07 40 55 3 - 1

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Dec. 18-19, 2007. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3. LV = likely voters

     

"Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 general election were held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were [see below]?" Names rotated

     
Mike
Huckabee (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % %

12/18-19/07

38

47

15

.

Mike
Huckabee (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % %

12/18-19/07

35

44

21


 

ABC News/Facebook poll. Dec. 16-19, 2007. N=1,142 adults nationwide. MoE 3. Fieldwork by TNS.

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?"

.

Giuliani (R) Clinton (D) Other/Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure  
% % % %  
12/16-19/07

47

45

5

3

 

.

Huckabee (R) Clinton (D) Other/Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure  
% % % %  
12/16-19/07

42

50

6

2

 

.

Giuliani (R) Obama (D) Other/Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure  
% % % %  
12/16-19/07

41

48

7

3

 

.

Huckabee (R) Obama (D) Other/Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure  
% % % %  
12/16-19/07

35

52

9

5

 

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Dec. 14-17, 2007. N=approx. 500 adults nationwide. MoE 4.4.

.

"If the next election for president were held today, and Rudy Giuliani were the Republican candidate, Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, and Ron Paul were an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?"

.

Giuliani (R) Clinton (D) Paul (I) Depends/
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

12/14-17/07

36 45 9 5 5

 

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Dec. 14-16, 2007. N=906 registered voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

". . . Suppose the election were being held today -- If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and [see below] were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for: [see below], the Democrat or [see below], the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat or [see below], the Republican?" Names rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other
(vol.)
Neither
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

12/14-16/07

48

49

-

2

-

11/11-14/07

44

49

-

4

3

11/2-4/07

45

51

1

2

1

8/13-16/07

50

46

-

3

1

7/12-15/07

49

46

1

3

1

6/11-14/07

46

50

-

2

1

6/1-3/07

52

45

1

2

1

4/13-15/07

51

46

-

2

1

2/9-11/07

50

48

-

1

1

7/25-28/05

50

45

1

2

2

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other
(vol.)
Neither
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

12/14-16/07

46

52

-

2

1

11/11-14/07

38

54

1

4

3

6/11-14/07

40

53

-

4

2

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other
(vol.)
Neither
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

12/14-16/07

45

51

-

3

2

11/11-14/07

45

45

1

5

4

7/12-15/07

49

45

1

3

2

6/11-14/07

45

50

-

3

2

2/9-11/07

52

43

-

2

2

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other
(vol.)
Neither
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

12/14-16/07

39

57

-

2

2

11/11-14/07

35

52

-

7

6

6/11-14/07

36

57

-

5

3


 

Zogby Poll. Dec. 12-14, 2007. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.2.

.

General Election Trial Heats:

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

12/12-14/07

42

48

 

 

 

7/12-14/07

41

48

6

6

 
5/17-20/07

41

48

5

6

 

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

12/12-14/07

36

52

 

 

 

7/12-14/07

40

48

5

8

 
5/17-20/07

35

52

4

9

 

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

12/12-14/07

38

50

 

 

 

7/12-14/07

38

47

6

9

 
5/17-20/07

36

50

5

9

 
2/22-24/07

32

47

5

16

 

.

Mike
Huckabee (R)
John
Edwards (D)
     
% %      

12/12-14/07

41

47

 

 

 

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

12/12-14/07

45

44

 

 

 

7/12-14/07

46

43

5

6

 
5/17-20/07

47

43

4

6

 
2/22-24/07

46

40

4

10

 

.

John
McCain (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

12/12-14/07

46

42

 

 

 

7/12-14/07

43

43

6

8

 
5/17-20/07

46

41

5

8

 
2/22-24/07

47

38

4

12

 

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

12/12-14/07

35

51

 

 

 

7/12-14/07

40

46

5

9

 
5/17-20/07

40

48

5

8

 

 

George Washington University Battleground Poll conducted by the Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). Dec. 9-12, 2007. N=1,013 likely voters nationwide.

.

"Now, even though it is a long way off, as you think about the election for president that will be held in 2008 -- If the 2008 election for president were held today and you had to make a choice between these two candidates, for whom would you vote: [see below], the Republican,
or
[see below], the Democrat?" If unsure: "And which candidate do you lean toward slightly?" Names rotated. Each match-up asked of half the sample.

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

12/9-12/07

44 49 6    

7/15-18/07

49 44 6    

1/8-11/07

53 43 4    

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

12/9-12/07

44 50 7    

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

12/9-12/07

43 46 11    

7/15-18/07

42 52 6    

1/8-11/07

50 41 9    

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

12/9-12/07

41 47 11    

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Dec. 6-9, 2007. N=912 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and [see below] were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or [see below], the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?" Names rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani
(R)
John
Edwards (D)
Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
12/6-9/07 44 53 2 - 1

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
12/6-9/07 37 59 3 1 1

.

John
McCain (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
12/6-9/07 44 52 3 - 1

.

Mike
Huckabee (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
12/6-9/07 35 60 3 - 1

 

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. Nov. 30-Dec. 3, 2007. N=1,245 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"If the November 2008 general election for president were being held today and the choices were [see below], the Democrat, and [see below], the Republican, for whom would you vote: [see below] or [see below], or would you vote for a candidate from some other party?" Names rotated. Results include leaners.

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other Unsure  
% % % %  

11/30 - 12/3/07

42 46 6 6  

10/19-22/07

41 47 8 4  

6/7-10/07

49 39 9 3  

4/5-9/07

48 42 6 4  

.

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other Unsure  
% % % %  

11/30 - 12/3/07

39 47 7 7  

10/19-22/07

34 49 6 11  

6/7-10/07

43 41 10 6  

4/5-9/07

37 44 11 8  

12/8-11/06

36 42 15 7  

.

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other Unsure  
% % % %  

11/30 - 12/3/07

39 44 7 10  

10/19-22/07

40 43 5 12  

6/7-10/07

41 46 5 8  

4/5-9/07

42 46 6 6  

.

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other Unsure  
% % % %  

11/30 - 12/3/07

33 45 9 13  

10/19-22/07

32 42 10 16  

6/7-10/07

34 50 7 9  

4/5-9/07

31 50 7 12  

 

Gallup Poll. Nov. 11-14, 2007. N=897 registered voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"Thinking now about the general election for president, which will be held in November 2008. Suppose the election were being held today -- If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and [see below] were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for: [see below], the Democrat or [see below], the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat or [see below], the Republican?" Names rotated

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other
(vol.)
Neither
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

11/11-14/07

40

53

-

4

3

7/12-15/07

45

48

1

4

2

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other
(vol.)
Neither
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

11/11-14/07

38

51

-

6

5

7/12-15/07

40

51

-

6

3


 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Nov. 13-14, 2007. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3. LV = likely voters

     

"If the presidential election were held today and all you knew about the candidates was that one was a Democrat and one was a Republican, how would you vote?"

.

Democrat Republican Other/
Neither (vol.)
Depends
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

11/13-14/07

43

34

5

12

6

     

"Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 general election were held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were [see below]?" Names rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % %

11/13-14/07

43

47

9

10/9-10/07

43

47

10

9/25-26/07

39

46

15

7/17-18/07

41

46

13

6/5-6/07

45

42

13

3/27-28/07

45

44

11

2/13-14/07

49

40

11

12/5-6/06

48

39

13

8/29-30/06

46

42

11

5/16-18/06

49

40

12

3/14-15/06

51

39

10

2/7-8/06

51

40

10

9/27-28/05

50

39

11

11/16-17/04

49

38

13

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % %

11/13-14/07

40

49

11

10/9-10/07

38

50

12

9/25-26/07

35

48

17

7/17-18/07

38

47

15

6/5-6/07

38

48

15

3/27-28/07

34

51

15


 

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. Nov. 8-11, 2007. N=855 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.4.

.

"I know the election in November 2008 is a long way off, but if [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and [see below] were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or [see below], the Republican?" If neither or unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat, or [see below], the Republican?" Names rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Rodham
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

11/8-11/07

43 46 2 9  

10/18-21/07

39 43 6 11  

9/13-16/07

43 45 3 9  

6/21-23/07

44 45 2 9  

6/15-17/07

42 42 2 14  

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Nov. 1-5, 2007. N=1,509 adults nationwide. MoE 2.5 (for all adults). RV = registered voters

.

"If the next election for president were held today, and [see below] were the Republican candidate and [see below] were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?" Some matchups asked of half the sample.

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

11/1-5/07

37 51 1 5 6

9/7-10/07

41 50 1 4 4

4/20-23/07

40 46 2 5 7

.

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

11/1-5/07

44 45 1 3 7

.

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Al Gore (D) Depends
(vol.)
Neither/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

11/1-5/07

47 46 1 2 4

.

"If the next election for president were held today, and Rudy Giuliani were the Republican candidate, Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, and [see below] were an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?" Each matchup asked of half the sample.

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Pat
Buchanan (I)
Depends/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

11/1-5/07

35 44 12 5 4

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Michael
Bloomberg (I)
Depends/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

11/1-5/07

39 42 10 4 5

7/27-30/07

34 42 11 6 7

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Nov. 2-4, 2007. N=929 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"Please tell me whether you would be extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, very unlikely, or extremely unlikely to vote for each of the following if that person were on the ballot in your state in next November's presidential election: [See below.]"  Options rotated

.

    Total
Likely
Total
Unlikely
Unsure
    % % %
Illinois Senator Barack Obama 52 47 2
New York Senator Hillary Clinton 51 48 1
Former N.Y. City Mayor Rudy Giuliani 49 49 1
Former N. Carolina Senator John Edwards 48 50 1
Arizona Senator John McCain 46 54 1
Former Tenn. Senator Fred Thompson 37 61 3
Former Mass. Governor Mitt Romney 34 64 2

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2007. N=1,002 registered voters nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"Suppose you had to choose between [see below], the Democrat, and [see below], the Republican. Who would you be more likely to vote for?" If other/unsure: "As of today do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat, or [see below], the Republican?" Names rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

10/31 - 11/1/07

45 49 6    

6/20-21/07

44 51 5    

5/2-3/07

46 49 5    

2/28 - 3/1/07

47 46 7    

1/24-25/07

46 49 5    

1/17-18/07

48 47 5    

12/6-7/06

47 48 5    

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

10/31 - 11/1/07

45 48 7    

6/20-21/07

44 49 7    

5/2-3/07

43 50 7    

2/28 - 3/1/07

48 43 9    

1/24-25/07

44 47 9    

1/17-18/07

47 45 8    

12/6-7/06

47 44 9    

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

10/31 - 11/1/07

45 48 7    

6/20-21/07

46 48 6    

5/2-3/07

44 50 6    

2/28 - 3/1/07

47 45 8    

1/24-25/07

47 46 7    

1/17-18/07

45 48 7    

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

10/31 - 11/1/07

45 49 6    

6/20-21/07

40 55 5    

5/2-3/07

35 57 8    

2/28 - 3/1/07

38 53 9    

1/24-25/07

37 56 7    

12/6-7/06

32 58 10    

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

10/31 - 11/1/07

37 53 10    

6/20-21/07

37 53 10    

5/2-3/07

29 58 13    

2/28 - 3/1/07

34 54 12    

1/24-25/07

30 56 14    

12/6-7/06

25 55 20    

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

10/31 - 11/1/07

37 53 10    

6/20-21/07

36 57 7    

5/2-3/07

27 64 9    

2/28 - 3/1/07

30 58 12    

1/24-25/07

26 60 14    

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

10/31 - 11/1/07

45 49 6    

6/20-21/07

42 53 5    

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

10/31 - 11/1/07

39 52 9    

6/20-21/07

39 53 8    

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
   
% % %    

10/31 - 11/1/07

39 53 8    

6/20-21/07

38 54 8    

.

"Suppose you had to choose among [see below], the Democrat, [see below], the Republican, and Michael Bloomberg, the independent. Who would you be most likely to vote for?" If other/unsure: "As of today do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat, [see below], the Republican, or Bloomberg, the independent?" Democratic and Republican choices rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Michael
Bloomberg (I)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
 
% % % %  

10/31 - 11/1/07

38 44 11 7  

6/20-21/07

37 46 11 6  

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Michael
Bloomberg (I)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
 
% % % %  

10/31 - 11/1/07

39 43 10 8  

6/20-21/07

38 44 11 7  

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Michael
Bloomberg (I)
Other (vol.)/
Unsure
 
% % % %  

10/31 - 11/1/07

33 46 13 8  

 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2007. N=1,131 adults nationwide. MoE 3. Fieldwork by TNS.

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were [see below], the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?" Options rotated. Includes leaners.

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Neither (vol.) Won't Vote
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
10/29 - 11/1/07

46

50

2

1

1

9/27-30/07

43

51

3

2

-

1/16-19/07

47

49

2

-

1

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Neither (vol.) Won't Vote
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
10/29 - 11/1/07

40

56

2

1

1


 

WNBC/Marist Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2007. N=811 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?"

.

Rudy
Giuliani
(R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Unsure
% % %
10/29 - 11/1/07

40

50

10

4/26 - 5/1/07

43

48

9

2/12-15/07

47

45

8

11/27 - 12/3/06

49

43

8

9/18-20/06

49

42

9

2/13-15/06

48

47

5

10/12-13 & 17/05

50

43

7

4/18-21/05

47

46

7

2/14-16/05

49

47

4

.

Rudy
Giuliani
(R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Michael
Bloomberg (I)
Unsure
% % % %
10/29 - 11/1/07

34

46

8

12

4/26 - 5/1/07

38

45

7

10

9/18-20/06

44

39

8

9


 

Quinnipiac University Poll. Oct. 23-29, 2007. N=1,636 registered voters nationwide. MoE 2.4.

.

"If the 2008 election for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below] the Democrat and [see below] the Republican, for whom would you vote?"

.

Rudolph
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

10/23-29/07

45

43

2

4

6

8/7-13/07

43

46

3

3

6

6/5-11/07

44

45

2

3

6

4/25 - 5/1/07

49

40

1

2

7

2/13-19/07

48

43

1

2

5

3/2-7/05

44

43

2

1

10

12/7-12/04

45

43

3

2

6

.

Rudolph
Giuliani (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

10/23-29/07

42

43

2

5

8

8/7-13/07

42

42

3

3

9

6/5-11/07

42

42

3

4

9

4/25 - 5/1/07

44

41

1

3

11

2/13-19/07

47

40

1

3

10

.

Rudolph
Giuliani (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

10/23-29/07

44

41

1

5

8

8/7-13/07

42

43

2

3

10

2/13-19/07

48

40

2

3

8

.

John
McCain (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

10/23-29/07

44

44

2

3

6

8/7-13/07

41

47

3

3

6

6/5-11/07

42

44

3

4

7

4/25 - 5/1/07

46

41

2

3

8

2/13-19/07

46

44

1

3

6

11/28 - 12/4/05

44

40

3

3

11

3/2-7/05

43

41

2

1

13

.

John
McCain (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

10/23-29/07

43

43

3

3

8

8/7-13/07

39

43

3

4

11

6/5-11/07

41

43

3

4

10

4/25 - 5/1/07

42

42

2

2

12

2/13-19/07

43

43

1

4

10

.

John
McCain (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

10/23-29/07

42

42

3

4

9

8/7-13/07

37

45

3

4

11

2/13-19/07

43

42

2

4

9

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

10/23-29/07

41

46

2

4

7

8/7-13/07

38

49

3

3

7

6/5-11/07

39

46

2

3

9

4/25 - 5/1/07

39

46

2

3

10

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

10/23-29/07

37

45

2

4

12

8/7-13/07

35

46

2

5

12

6/5-11/07

34

46

2

3

14

4/25 - 5/1/07

34

47

2

3

15

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

10/23-29/07

36

46

2

5

11

8/7-13/07

32

49

3

3

13

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

10/23-29/07

38

48

2

5

7

2/13-19/07

37

49

2

4

9

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

10/23-29/07

36

46

3

5

10

2/13-19/07

29

49

2

5

15

.

Mitt
Romney (R)
John
Edwards (D)
Someone
Else (vol.)
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

10/23-29/07

34

47

3

6

11

2/13-19/07

32

48

3

5

12

.

"If the 2008 election for president were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?"

.

Democrat Republican Depends (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

10/23-29/07

44

37

13

6

 

8/7-13/07

46

34

14

6

 

6/5-11/07

47

32

15

5

 

4/25 - 5/1/07

43

34

15

7

 


 

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Oct. 21-23, 2007. N=994 likely voters nationwide.

.

"Now let me ask you again about your vote for president but with the candidate names. I know it is a long way off, but if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican [see below], for whom would you vote?"

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

10/21-23/07

45 49 3 3  

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

10/21-23/07

44 51 2 4  

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 17-23, 2007. N=1,607 registered voters nationwide.

.

"Now suppose the 2008 general election were being held today and you had to choose between Rudy Giuliani as the Republican candidate and Hillary Clinton as the Democratic candidate -- who would you vote for?" If other or unsure: "As of today, do you lean more to Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton?" Names rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Unsure    
% % %    

10/17-23/07

43 51 6    

 

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. Oct. 19-22, 2007. Registered voters nationwide.

.

"If the November 2008 general election for president were being held today and the choices were [see below], the Democrat, and [see below], the Republican, for whom would you vote: [see below] or [see below], or would you vote for a candidate from some other party?" Names rotated. Results include leaners. N=approx. 520 registered voters, MoE 4.

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Other Unsure  
% % % %  

10/19-22/07

38 49 7 6  

.

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other Unsure  
% % % %  

10/19-22/07

31 46 9 14  

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Oct. 12-14, 2007. N=927 registered voters nationwide. MoE 3.

.

"Thinking in general about the presidential election in 2008, which of the following statements comes closest to your view? You will definitely vote for the Democratic candidate. You will probably vote for the Democratic candidate. You will probably vote for the Republican candidate. OR, You will definitely vote for the Republican candidate."

.

Definitely
Democratic
Probably
Democratic
Probably
Republican
Definitely
Republican
Unsure
% % % % %
10/12-14/07 30 22 22 17 9

.

"And thinking about all the candidates currently running for president, both from the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, which one do you think is most likely to win the general election for president in November 2008?"

.

%        
Clinton 45        
Giuliani 16        
Obama 8        
Thompson 5        
Edwards 4        
McCain 4        
Gore 2        
Romney 2        
Biden 1        
Dodd 1        
Huckabee 1        
Tancredo 1        
Unsure 10        

.

"If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and [see below] were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or [see below], the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?" Names rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani
(R)
Al Gore (D) Neither (vol.) Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
10/12-14/07 46 52 2 - 1

 

National Public Radio Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Oct. 4, 6-7, 2007. N=800 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.5.

.

"If the election for president were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were [see below], Republican, and, [see below], Democrat?" If unsure: "Which way do you lean as of today, towards [see below]?" Names rotated

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Hillary
Rodham
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

10/4, 6-7/07

44 47 2 8  

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Hillary
Rodham
Clinton (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

10/4, 6-7/07

42 50 1 7  

.

Rudy
Giuliani (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

10/4, 6-7/07

44 44 2 10  

.

Fred
Thompson (R)
Barack
Obama (D)
Other (vol.) Unsure  
% % % %  

10/4, 6-7/07

39 48 1 12  

 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Sept. 27-30, 2007. N=1,114 adults nationwide. Fieldwork by TNS.

.

"If [see below] wins the Democratic/Republican nomination for president would you definitely vote for him/her in the general election for president in 2008, would you consider voting for him/her or would you definitely not vote for him/her?"

.

Definitely
Would
Would
Consider
Definitely
Would Not
Unsure  
% % % %  
Hillary Clinton
   9/27-30/07

30

28

41

1

 
   4/12-15/07

27

26

45

1

 

.

John Edwards
   9/27-30/07

16

38

43

3

 
   4/12-15/07

18

45

35

3

 

.

Rudy Giuliani
   9/27-30/07

17

36

44

2

 
   4/12-15/07

17

40

40

2

 

.

John McCain
   9/27-30/07

13

39

45

3

 
   4/12-15/07

12

39

47

2

 

.

Barack Obama
   9/27-30/07

21

37

39

3

 
   4/12-15/07

20

40

36

5