White House 2008: General Election Trial Heats (p. 3)

Polls listed chronologically.

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"Now suppose that Barack Obama were the Democratic candidate for president and Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate for vice president, and John McCain were the Republican candidate for president and Mitt Romney were the Republican candidate for vice president. If the ballot in your state only included the Democratic and Republican tickets, who would you be more likely to vote for?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?" Options rotated

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"If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: Clinton, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?" Options rotated

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Gallup Poll. June 4, 2008. N=868 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

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General Election Trial Heats:

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6/4/08

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6/4/08

CBS News Poll. May 30-June 3, 2008. N=930 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

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"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were [see below], the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican, would you vote for [see below] or John McCain?"

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5/30 - 6/3/08

5/1-3/08

4/25-29/08

3/28 - 4/2/08

3/15-18/08

2/20-24/08

Gallup Poll daily tracking. Five-day rolling average. N=approx. 4,400 registers voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.

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General Election Trial Heat:

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6/3/08

6/2/08

6/1/08

5/31/08

5/29/08

5/28/08

5/27/08

5/25/08

5/24/08

5/23/08

5/22/08

5/21/08

5/20/08

5/19/08

5/18/08

5/17/08

5/16/08

5/15/08

5/14/08

5/13/08

5/12/08

5/11/08

5/10/08

5/9/08

5/8/08

5/7/08

5/6/08

5/5/08

5/4/08

5/3/08

5/2/08

5/1/08

4/30/08

4/29/08

4/28/08

4/27/08

4/26/08

4/25/08

4/24/08

4/23/08

4/22/08

4/21/08

4/20/08

4/19/08

4/18/08

4/17/08

4/16/08

4/15/08

4/14/08

4/13/08

4/12/08

4/11/08

4/10/08

4/9/08

4/8/08

4/7/08

4/6/08

4/5/08

4/4/08

4/3/08

4/2/08

4/1/08

3/31/08

3/30/08

3/29/08

3/28/08

3/27/08

3/26/08

3/25/08

3/24/08

3/22/08

3/21/08

3/20/08

3/19/08

3/18/08

3/17/08

3/16/08

3/15/08

3/14/08

3/13/08

3/12/08

3/11/08

USA Today/Gallup Poll. May 30-June 1, 2008. N=803 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4. RV = registered voters

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"Suppose the election were being held today. If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat or McCain, the Republican?" Names rotated

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5/30 - 6/1/08

44

48

1

4

3

5/1-3/08

49

46

1

3

1

4/18-20/08

45

49

1

2

3

3/14-16/08

46

51

-

1

1

2/21-24/08

50

46

1

2

1

2/8-10/08

49

48

1

2

1

1/10-13/08

50

47

1

2

1

11/11-14/07 RV

44

50

-

3

2

6/11-14/07 RV

46

49

-

3

2

2/9-11/07 RV

47

50

-

1

1

10/21-23/05 RV

53

43

1

2

1

7/25-28/05 RV

50

45

-

2

3

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. May 21-25, 2008. N=1,242 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5. April survey conducted by Abt SRBI.

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"Now, suppose the 2008 presidential election were being held TODAY. If you had to choose between [see below], who would you vote for?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated

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5/21-25/08

4/23-27/08

3/19-22/08

2/20-24/08

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. May 21-22, 2008. N=1,205 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.

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"If the presidential election were being held TODAY and you HAD TO CHOOSE between [see below], the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward [see below], the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican?" Names rotated

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5/21-22/08

4/24-25/08

4/16-17/08

3/5-6/08

6/20-21/07

5/2-3/07

2/28 - 3/1/07

1/24-25/07

1/17-18/07

12/6-7/06

Reuters/Zogby Poll. May 15-18, 2008. N=1,076 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

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General Election Trial Heats:

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5/15-18/08

43

43

4/10-12/08

46

41

3/13-14/08

48

40

6

7

2/13-16/08

50

38

6

7

1/10-11/08

47

42

12/12-14/07

49

42

7/12-14/07

43

45

8

5

47

43

6

4

47

39

5

9

12/6-8/05

52

37

6

5

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5/15-18/08

40

41

4

3

12

4/10-12/08

45

39

3

2

12

Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. May 12-18, 2008. N=876 registered voters. MoE ± 3.2.

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"If the 2008 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote? Would you say [see below]?"

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5/12-18/08

4/1-6/08

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5/12-18/08

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5/12-18/08

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5/12-18/08

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). May 13-15, 2008. N=1,014 likely voters nationwide.

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"Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. I know it is a long way off, but if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat [see below] and Republican John McCain, for whom would you vote?"

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5/13-15/08

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"Now, even though the 2008 elections are a long way off: If the election for president were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate?" If unsure: "And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?" Options rotated

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5/11-14/08

12/9-12/07

7/15-18/07

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"If the election for president were held today and you had to make a choice between these two candidates, for whom would you vote: John McCain, the Republican, or [see below], the Democrat?" If unsure: "And which candidate do you lean toward slightly?" Names rotated. Each match-up asked of half the sample.

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5/11-14/08

1/8-11/07

Quinnipiac University Poll. May 8-12, 2008. N=1,745 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.4.

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"If the 2008 election for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below] the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?"

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5/8-12/08

41

46

2

4

7

10/23-29/07

44

44

2

3

6

8/7-13/07

41

47

3

3

6

6/5-11/07

42

44

3

4

7

4/25 - 5/1/07

46

41

2

3

8

2/13-19/07

46

44

1

3

6

11/28 - 12/4/05

44

40

3

3

11

43

41

2

1

13

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. May 8-11, 2008. N=1,122 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. Fieldwork by TNS. RV = registered voters

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"If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were John McCain, the Republican, and [see below], the Democrat, for whom would you vote?" Options rotated. Includes leaners.

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44

51

3

1

1

44

49

3

3

2

40

53

2

1

3

48

47

2

1

2

45

47

3

1

3

.

46

49

2

1

1

48

45

3

2

1

47

49

2

1

1

50

45

1

1

2

43

52

3

1

1

45

50

3

1

1

National Public Radio Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). May 7-8, 10, 2008. N=800 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.

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"If the election for president were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were John McCain, Republican, and [see below], Democrat?" If unsure: "Which way do you lean as of today, towards [see below]?"

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5/7-8, 10/08

1/29-31/08

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5/7-8, 10/08

1/29-31/08

12/7, 9-10/06

48

41

2

9

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"If the November 2008 general election for president were being held today and the choices were [see below], the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican, for whom would you vote: [see below] or McCain, or would you vote for a candidate from some other party?" Names rotated. Results include leaners.

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10/19-22/07

6/7-10/07

Ipsos Public Affairs poll. April 30-May 4, 2008. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1. 4/23-27/08 and earlier: Associated Press/Ipsos Poll.

"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?" If neither or unsure: "Well, do you lean more toward [see below]?" Names rotated

4/30 - 5/4/08

42

47

8

2

4/23-27/08

41

50

7

2

4/7-9/08

45

48

5

2

2/22-24/08

43

48

7

2

2/7-10/08

45

46

7

2

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. April 30-May 3, 2008. N=803 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.

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"Now, suppose the general election for president in 2008 were being held today between Republican John McCain and Democrat [see below], for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Which way would you lean as of today?" Names rotated

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4/30 - 5/3/08

3/28-31/08

2/14-17/08

1/10-12/08

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"Now, suppose the general election for president in 2008 were being held today between Republican John McCain, Democrat [see below], and independent Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Which way would you lean as of today?" Names rotated

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4/30 - 5/3/08

3/28-31/08

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4/30 - 5/3/08

3/28-31/08

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. April 17-20, 2008. N=802 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.

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2/23-26/06

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. April 16-17, 2008. N=1,209 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

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"Suppose that neither Clinton nor Obama is able to secure the Democratic nomination and the party turns to Al Gore as its presidential candidate. If the presidential election were being held TODAY and you HAD TO CHOOSE between Al Gore, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Gore, the Democrat, or McCain, the Republican?" Names rotated

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4/16-17/08

Zogby Poll. March 13-14, 2008. N=1,001 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2.

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General Election Trial Heats:

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3/13-14/08

44

39

5

11

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3/13-14/08

45

39

6

11

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. Feb. 14-17, 2008. N=803 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.

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"Now, suppose the general election for president in 2008 were being held today between Republican [see below] and Democrat [see below], for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Which way would you lean as of today?" Names rotated

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2/14-17/08

1/10-12/08