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    White House 2012: Republican Nomination  (p. 3)

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Pew Research Center. Nov. 4-7, 2010. Adults nationwide.

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"Now I am going to read you the names of some possible candidates for the REPUBLICAN nomination for president in 2012. AFTER I READ ALL THE NAMES, please tell me which one you would most like to see nominated as the Republican Party's candidate for president or if there is someone else you support." If unsure: "Well as of today, to whom do you most lean?" Options rotated. N=360 Republicans, MoE ± 6.5.

.
%

Mike Huckabee

 19

Sarah Palin

 18

Mitt Romney

 17

Newt Gingrich

 10

Ron Paul

 9

Tim Pawlenty

 6

Haley Barbour

 3

Rick Santorum

 1

Someone else

 3

None (vol.)

 5

Unsure

 10

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Oct. 27-30, 2010. Nationwide.

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"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. Former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. Texas Congressman Ron Paul. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum. Indiana Congressman Mike Pence. Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour." N=500 Republicans and independents who lean Republican, MoE ± 4.5

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10/27-30/10 8/6-10/10 4/9-11/10 3/19-21/10
% % % %

Mike Huckabee

 21 14 24 17

Mitt Romney

 20 21 20 22

Sarah Palin

 14 18 15 18

Newt Gingrich

 12 15 14 8

Ron Paul

 7 10 8 8

Haley Barbour

 3 3 1 1

Tim Pawlenty

 3 3 2 5

Mike Pence

 3 3 2 4

Rick Santorum

 2 2 3 5

Someone else

 7 6 5 8

No one (vol.)

 4 - 5 2

Unsure

 6 4 1 3

 

McClatchy-Marist Poll. Sept. 14-16, 2010. N=369 Republican voters and Republican-leaning independent voters nationwide. MoE ± 5.

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"If the 2012 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, former Georgia congressman Newt Gingrich, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney?"

.
%

Mitt Romney

 25

Sarah Palin

 18

Mike Huckabee

 16

Newt Gingrich

 16

Tim Pawlenty

 6

Mitch Daniels

 4

Haley Barbour

 2

Unsure

 13

 

Clarus Research Group. July 26-27, 2010. N=374 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or independents who lean Republican. MoE ± 5.

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"Of the following possible candidates for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, which ONE would you now favor if you had to vote today: Lamar Alexander, Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, or John Thune?" Options rotated

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%

Mitt Romney

 26

Mike Huckabee

 21

Newt Gingrich

 14

Sarah Palin

 12

Tim Pawlenty

 3

Lamar Alexander

 3

Haley Barbour

 2

Mitch Daniels

 1

John Thune

 1

Other (vol.)

 2

Unsure

 15

 

Time Poll conducted by Abt SRBI. July 12-13, 2010. N=1,003 adults nationwide.

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"I'm going to read a list of people who may be running for president in the Republican Party in 2012. Please tell me which one of these candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2012 if you had to choose today. If you would most likely support someone else, please tell me. The candidates are [see below] -- or you can name someone else." Options rotated. Among  Republicans and Republican leaners.

.
%

Mike Huckabee

 19

Mitt Romney

 18

Sarah Palin

 14

Newt Gingrich

 12

Jeb Bush

 9

Tim Pawlenty

 3

Mitch Daniels

 2

Haley Barbour

 1

Someone else (vol.)

 7

Unsure

 13

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"And are there any candidates who you probably could not support for the Republican nomination? . . ." Read names again, if necessary, omitting choice from above. Multiple responses accepted. Among  Republicans and Republican leaners.

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%

Sarah Palin

 22

Newt Gingrich

 8

Jeb Bush

 7

Mitt Romney

 7

Mike Huckabee

 4

Haley Barbour

 3

Mitch Daniels

 2

Tim Pawlenty

 2

Someone else (vol.)

 3

Unsure

 53

 

Clarus Research Group. March 17-20, 2010. Registered voters nationwide.

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"If the following candidates were seeking the next Republican presidential nomination, which ONE would you now most likely favor: [see below]?" N=415 Republicans and independents who lean Republican

.
%

Mitt Romney

 29

Mike Huckabee

 19

Sarah Palin

 18

Newt Gingrich

 13

Jeb Bush

 8

John Thune

 1

Mitch Daniels

 1

Other (vol.)

 2

Unsure

 10

 

Gallup Poll. Feb. 1-3, 2010. Nationwide.

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"Just off the top of your head, which Republican would you most like to see as the party's candidate for president in the 2012 election?" Open-ended. N=490 Republicans and Republican leaners, MoE ± 5.

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%

Mitt Romney

 14

Sarah Palin

 11

John McCain

 7

Scott Brown

 4

Mike Huckabee

 3

Newt Gingrich

 3

Ron Paul

 2

Tim Pawlenty

 1

Bob McDonnell

 1

Fred Thompson

 1

Bobby Jindal

 1

Other

 10

None (vol.)

 6

Unsure

 36

 

Washington Post Poll. Nov. 19-23, 2009. N=804 Republicans and Republican-leaning nonpartisans nationwide.

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"If the 2012 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?"

.
%

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Sarah Palin

 17

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Mike Huckabee

 10

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Mitt Romney

 9

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John McCain

 7

.

Newt Gingrich

 2

.

Bobby Jindal

 1

.

Ron Paul

 1

.

Rudy Giuliani

 1

.

Tim Pawlenty

 1

.

Other

 8

.

No one

 12

.

Wouldn't vote

 2

.

Unsure

 28

.

 

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2009. N=1,021 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4. Per Gallup: "These questions were asked of random half-samples for two nights of Gallup Daily polling, which interviews 1,000 U.S. adults each night."

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"Next, I'm going to read you a list of possible Republican candidates in the 2012 presidential election. Please tell me whether you would, or would not, seriously consider supporting each for president. How about . . . ?"

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Would Would not Unsure

.
% % %

.

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Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee

ALL

 40 51 10

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Republicans

 71

.

.

.

Independents

 40

.

.

.

Democrats

 18

.

.

.

.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney

ALL

 39 51 11

.

Republicans

 65

.

.

.

Independents

 40

.

.

.

Democrats

 20

.

.

.

.

Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin

ALL

 33 63 5

.

Republicans

 65

.

.

.

Independents

 32

.

.

.

Democrats

 10

.

.

.

.

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich

ALL

 29 63 9

.

Republicans

 60

.

.

.

Independents

 28

.

.

.

Democrats

 8

.

.

.

.

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty

ALL

 18 60 22

.

Republicans

 32

.

.

.

Independents

 17

.

.

.

Democrats

 11

.

.

.

.

Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour

ALL

 15 65 21

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Republicans

 26

.

.

.

Independents

 15

.

.

.

Democrats

 7

.

.

.

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"Please tell me whether you think each of the following people is or is not qualified to be president. How about . . . ?"

.
Is Is not Unsure

.
% % %

.

.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee

ALL

 50 36 14

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Republicans

 72

.

.

.

Independents

 48

.

.

.

Democrats

 38

.

.

.

.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney

ALL

 49 39 12

.

Republicans

 71

.

.

.

Independents

 45

.

.

.

Democrats

 37

.

.

.

.

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich

ALL

 44 46 10

.

Republicans

 68

.

.

.

Independents

 39

.

.

.

Democrats

 32

.

.

.

.

Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin

ALL

 31 62 7

.

Republicans

 58

.

.

.

Independents

 28

.

.

.

Democrats

 14

.

.

.

.

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty

ALL

 25 51 25

.

Republicans

 33

.

.

.

Independents

 23

.

.

.

Democrats

 21

.

.

.

.

Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour

ALL

 18 57 26

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Republicans

 27

.

.

.

Independents

 15

.

.

.

Democrats

 12

.

.

.

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Oct. 16-18, 2009. N=462 Republicans nationwide. MoE ± 4.5.

.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty." Options rotated

.
%

.

Mike Huckabee

 32

.

Sarah Palin

 25

.

Mitt Romney

 21

.

Tim Pawlenty

 5

.

Someone else

 10

.

No one (vol.)

 5

.

Unsure

 1

.

 

Clarus Research Group. Aug. 14-18, 2009. N=353 Republicans and independents who lean Republican nationwide.

.

"Of the following possible candidates for the next Republican presidential nomination, which one would you now most likely favor: [see below]?"

.
%

Mitt Romney

 30

Mike Huckabee

 22

Sarah Palin

 18

Newt Gingrich

 15

Bobby Jindal

 4

Someone else (vol.)

 2

Unsure

 10

 

Marist College Marist Poll. Aug. 3-6, 2009. N=310 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide. MoE ± 5.5.

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"If the 2012 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?"

.
%

Mitt Romney

 21

Sarah Palin

 20

Mike Huckabee

 19

Newt Gingrich

 10

Bobby Jindal

 5

Tim Pawlenty

 1

Unsure

 24

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. July 21-22, 2009. N=303 Republican voters nationwide. MoE ± 6.

.

"I'm going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2012 Republican nomination. Please tell me which one you would like to see as the Republican presidential nominee. . . ." Options rotated

.

.
7/21-22/09 5/12-13/09

.
% %

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Mitt Romney

 22 18

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Mike Huckabee

 21 20

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Sarah Palin

 17 13

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Rudy Giuliani

 13 12

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Newt Gingrich

 9 14

.

Bobby Jindal

 3 3

.

Jeb Bush

 1 3

.

Tim Pawlenty

 1 n/a

.

Mark Sanford

 - 4

.

Someone else (vol.)

 1 3

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Too soon to say (vol.)

 10 7

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Unsure

 2 4

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ABC News/Washington Post Poll. July 15-18, 2009. N=1,001 adults nationwide. Results below are among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

.

"If the 2012 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?"

.
%

.

Mike Huckabee

 26

.

Mitt Romney

 21

.

Sarah Palin

 19

.

Newt Gingrich

 10

.

Tim Pawlenty

 4

.

Jeb Bush

 3

.

Haley Barbour

 1

.

Bobby Jindal (vol.)

 2

.

Other (vol.)

 2

.

None of these (vol.)

 5

.

Wouldn't vote (vol.)

 1

.

Unsure

 6

.

 

Gallup Poll. July 10-12, 2009. N=455 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE ± 5.

.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2012, or if you would support someone else: Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney." Options rotated

.
%

.

Mitt Romney

 26

.

Sarah Palin

 21

.

Mike Huckabee

 19

.

Newt Gingrich

 14

.

Tim Pawlenty

 3

.

Haley Barbour

 2

.

Other (vol.)

 4

.

Any/All/None (vol.)

 3

.

Unsure

 7

.

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. May 14-17, 2009. N=448 Republicans nationwide. MoE ± 4.5.

.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, former Florida governor Jeb Bush." Options rotated

.
%

.

Mike Huckabee

 22

.

Sarah Palin

 21

.

Mitt Romney

 21

.

Newt Gingrich

 13

.

Jeb Bush

 6

.

Someone else

 10

.

No one (vol.)

 3

.

Unsure

 4

.

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Feb. 18-19, 2009. N=429 Republicans nationwide. MoE ± 4.5.

.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in 2012. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal."

.
%

.

Sarah Palin

 29

.

Mike Huckabee

 26

.

Mitt Romney

 21

.

Bobby Jindal

 9

.

Someone else

 10

.

None/No one (vol.)

 4

.

Unsure

 2

.

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Dec. 1-2, 2008. N=460 Republicans nationwide. MoE ± 4.5.

.

"I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. For each one, please tell me whether you would be very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all to support them if they decided to run for the Republican nomination four years from now. . . ."

.
Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not likely at all Unsure
% % % % %

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Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani

12/1-2/08

 23 34 24 18 -

.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal

12/1-2/08

 19 25 33 16 7

.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist

12/1-2/08

 7 25 40 20 7

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2008. N=950 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"If John McCain is NOT elected president in November, would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose Sarah Palin if she ran for president four years from now?"

.
Strongly
support		 Somewhat
support		 Somewhat
oppose		 Strongly
oppose		 Unsure
% % % % %

ALL

 22 18 13 46 1

Democrats

 3 7 10 78 1

Independents

 20 21 16 42 1

Republicans

 46 31 13 9 1

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 22-23, 2008. Registered Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide, from a total sample of 1,092 registered voters.

.

"Thinking ahead to the next presidential election: If John McCain is not elected president in November, would you like to see Sarah Palin run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012, or not?"

.
Yes No Unsure

.
% % %

.

10/22-23/08

 44 38 18

.

.

"If John McCain is not elected president, which one of the following three possible candidates would you be most likely to support for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012: [see below]?" Options rotated

.
Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee Sarah Palin Someone
else (vol.)		 Unsure
% % % % %

10/22-23/08

 35 26 20 10 9

 

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