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     White House 2004: General Election (p. 2)


Polls listed chronologically. All data are from nationwide telephone surveys of Americans 18 & older.

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CBS News Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,125 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3. Per CBS: "Every registered voter is included in the likely voter model, and is assigned a probability of voting, which is used to calculate the likely voter results. The sum of these probabilities is the effective number of likely voters."

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"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry for president and John Edwards for vice president, the Democrats, George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, the Republicans, and Ralph Nader for president and Peter Camejo for vice president, would you vote for John Kerry and John Edwards, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo?" Options rotated. Past tense used for respondents who had already voted. Nader/Camejo included only in states where they are on the ballot.

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Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Nader/
Camejo
Other/Won't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
10/29 - 11/1/04 49 47 1 - 3
10/28-31/04 47 46 1    
10/28-30/04 49 46 1 1 2
10/14-17/04 47 45 2 2 4
10/9-11/04 48 45 2 2 3
10/1-3/04 47 47 1 2 3

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Among registered voters:

10/29 - 11/1/04 48 47      
10/28-31/04 46 46      
9/20-22/04 49 41 2 2 4
9/12-16/04 50 41 3 2 4
9/6-8/04 49 42 1 2 6
8/15-18/04 45 46 1 2 6

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"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were John Kerry for president and John Edwards for vice president, the Democrats, and George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, the Republicans, would you vote for John Kerry and John Edwards or George W. Bush and Dick Cheney?" Options rotated. Results collapsed with preceding question for non-Nader voters in states where Nader is on the ballot.

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Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Depends/
Other (vol.)
Won't
Vote (vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % %
10/28-30/04 50 47 1 0 2
10/14-17/04 47 46 2 0 5
10/9-11/04 47 46 3 0 4
10/1-3/04 48 47 2 0 3

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Trend, among registered voters:

9/20-22/04 49 41 3 1 6
9/12-16/04 50 42 3 1 4
9/6-8/04 50 42 1 0 7
8/15-18/04 44 47 2 0 7
7/30 - 8/1/04 43 49 2 0 5
7/11-15/04 44 49 2 1 4
7/6/04 * 44 49 1 2 4
5/20-23/04 40 50 3 1 6
3/10-14/04 46 44 1 1 8
2/24-27/04 42 50 1 1 6

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* These respondents were also polled by CBS News and The New York Times June 23-27, 2004.

 

The Harris Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2004: N=1,509 likely voters nationwide who express a preference. MoE 2.5.

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"If the next presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats, and Ralph Nader as an independent, for whom would you most likely vote?" If undecided: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"

.

Bush Kerry Nader Other (vol.)  
% % % %  

VOTE PROJECTION, with undecideds/refusals allocated:

 
10/29 - 11/1/04 49 48 2 1  

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Oct. 30-31, 2004. N=1,400 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3); 1,200 likely voters (MoE 3).

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"If the election for president of the United States were held today, would you vote for Republican George W. Bush, Democrat John Kerry, or independent candidate Ralph Nader?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean?" Names rotated. As of 9/21-22, Nader only included in states where he is on the ballot or his status is unresolved.

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George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
Other (vol.)/
Not Sure
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
  % % % % %

Among likely voters:

10/30-31/04 46 48 1 5 -
10/29-30/04 46 46 1 7 -
10/28-29/04 47 45 1 7 -
10/27-28/04 50 45 - 5 -
10/17-18/04 49 42 2 7 -
10/3-4/04 47 45 1 6 1
9/21-22/04 46 42 1 11 -

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9/7-8/04 47 43 3 7 -
8/24-25/04 43 44 3 10 -
8/3-4/04 43 47 2 8 -
7/20-21/04 43 44 3 9 1

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Among registered voters:

10/30-31/04 45 47 1 6 1
10/29-30/04 45 47 1 7 -
10/28-29/04 46 46 1 7 -
10/27-28/04 48 46 1 5 -
8/3-4/04 42 46 2 9 1
7/20-21/04 43 42 4 10 1
6/22-23/04 47 40 3 9 1
6/8-9/04 42 42 3 12 1
5/18-19/04 40 40 3 15 2
4/21-22/04 42 40 2 14 2
3/23-24/04 43 42 3 10 2
2/18-19/04* 43 42 4 9 2

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* Nader identified as Green Party candidate in 2/04 poll.

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"If the election for president of the United States were held today, would you vote for Republican George W. Bush or Democrat John Kerry?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean?" Names rotated

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George
W. Bush
John
Kerry
Other (vol.)/
Not Sure
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
  % % % %

Among likely voters:

10/30-31/04 46 48 5 1
10/29-30/04 46 47 6 1
10/28-29/04 47 45 8 -
10/27-28/04 50 45 5 -
10/17-18/04 48 43 7 2
10/3-4/04 48 45 6 1
9/21-22/04 45 43 11 1
9/7-8/04 47 45 7 1
8/24-25/04 44 45 9 2
8/3-4/04 43 48 8 1
7/20-21/04 44 45 9 2

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Among registered voters:

10/30-31/04 45 48 7 -
10/29-30/04 45 47 6 2
10/28-29/04 46 46 8 -
10/27-28/04 47 47 5 1
8/3-4/04 43 46 9 2
7/20-21/04 44 44 10 2
6/22-23/04 48 42 8 2
6/8-9/04 43 45 10 2
5/18-19/04 42 42 13 3
5/4-5/04 44 41 13 2
4/21-22/04 43 42 12 3
4/6-7/04 43 44 12 1
3/23-24/04 44 44 10 2
3/3-4/04 44 44 11 1
2/18-19/04 45 45 9 1
2/4-5/04 47 43 9 1
1/21-22/04 49 42 8 1
1/7-8/04 54 32 12 2
7/03 54 35 8 3
5/03 58 29 11 2
12/02 57 29 12 2

 

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,018 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

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"Thinking about the elections in November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George Bush and the Democrat John Kerry, for whom would you vote: George Bush or John Kerry?" As of 9/26-28, Nader included only in states where he is on the ballot. Trend includes slight variation in wording.

       
George
Bush
John
Kerry
Ralph
Nader
Other
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

VOTE PROJECTION, with undecideds allocated:

10/29-31/04 48.7 49.5 0.6 1.0  
       
10/29-31/04 47 48 1 1 3
10/29-30/04 47 48 0 1 4
10/26-28/04 47 49 1 1 2
10/26-27/04 46 49 1 1 2
10/24-25/04 47 49 1 1 1
10/20-21/04 47 49 1 1 1
10/17-18/04 47 50 1 1 1
10/14-16/04 47 50 1 0 2
10/10-11/04 48 48 0 1 2
10/3-5/04 48 49 1 0 2
9/26-28/04 49 46 1 1 3
       
9/19-21/04 47 45 5 0 3
9/12-14/04 47 45 3 1 4
9/6-9/04 48 45 4 0 4
8/2-5/04 44 49 4 0 2
7/10-13/04 45 48 4 1 3
6/14-17/04 45 45 6 1 3
5/10-13/04 45 46 6 1 3
4/19-22/04 47 44 6 0 3

 

The Harris Poll. Oct. 29-31, 2004: N=1,092 registered voters nationwide who said they are "absolutely certain" to vote or have already voted in this election. MoE 3.

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"If the next presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats, and Ralph Nader as an independent, for whom would you most likely vote?" If undecided: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"

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Bush Kerry Nader Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %
10/29-31/04 49 45 2 1 3

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Trend:

10/24-17/04: LV1* 48 46 1 1 4
10/24-17/04: LV2* 51 43 1 1 4

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LV1: N=820 registered voters nationwide who said they are "absolutely certain" to vote.
LV2: N=755
registered voters nationwide who said they are "absolutely certain" to vote and that (if old enough) they voted in 2000.

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,866 registered voters nationwide (MoE 3); 1,573 likely voters (MoE 3).

.

As of 10/22-24 -- Asked of those who have NOT already voted:
"
Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?
" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independents?" Options rotated. As of 10/1-3/04, results reflect Nader/Camejo support only for states where they are on the ballot.
     
As of
10/22-24 -- Asked of those who HAVE already voted:
"Who did you vote for in the presidential election?" Open-ended

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Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Nader/
Camejo
Other
(vol.)
None/
Unsure
% % % % %

Gallup VOTE PROJECTION, based on likely voters, with undecideds allocated:

10/29-31/04

49 49 1 1  

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Among likely voters:

10/29-31/04

49 47 - 1 3

10/22-24/04

51 46 1 - 2

10/14-16/04

52 44 1 - 3

10/9-10/04

48 49 1 - 2

10/1-3/04

49 49 1 1 -

.

9/24-26/04

52 44 3 - 1

9/3-5/04

52 45 1 - 2

8/23-25/04

48 46 4 - 2

8/9-11/04

48 46 3 0 3

7/30 - 8/1/04

51 45 2 - 2

7/30-31/04

50 46 2 - 2

7/19-21/04

46 47 4 - 3

7/8-11/04

45 50 2 - 3

.

Among registered voters:

10/29-31/04

46 48 1 1 4

10/22-24/04

49 47 1 - 3

10/14-16/04

49 46 1 - 3

10/9-10/04

48 48 1 - 3

10/1-3/04

49 47 1 1 2

.

9/24-26/04

53 42 3 - 2

9/3-5/04

48 46 4 - 2

8/23-25/04

46 46 4 - 4

8/9-11/04

46 45 5 - 4

7/30 - 8/1/04

48 47 2 - 3

7/30-31/04

47 47 3 - 3

7/19-21/04

43 47 5 - 5

7/8-11/04

42 50 4 - 4

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Asked of Nader/Camejo supporters:
"If Ralph Nader is not on the ballot in your state on Election Day, would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, or Bush and Cheney, the Republicans?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, or Bush and Cheney, the Republicans?" Options rotated
       
Re-calculated 2-way race, based on this trial heat and the 3-way trial heat, above:

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Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Neither
(vol.)
Other
(vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %
Among likely voters:

10/29-31/04

49 47 - 1 3

10/22-24/04

52 46 - - 2

10/14-16/04

52 44 1 - 3

10/9-10/04

48 50 - - 2

10/1-3/04

49 49 1 1 -

9/24-26/04**

52 44 1 - 3

9/13-15/04

55 42 1 - 2

9/3-5/04

52 45 1 - 2

8/23-25/04

50 47 1 - 2

8/9-11/04

50 47 1 - 2

7/30 - 8/1/04

51 47 - - 2

7/30-31/04

50 47 1 - 2

7/19-21/04

47 49 2 - 2

7/8-11/04

46 50 2 - 2

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Among registered voters:

10/29-31/04

47 48 1 1 3

10/22-24/04

49 48 1 - 2

10/14-16/04

50 46 1 - 3

10/9-10/04

48 48 1 1 2

10/1-3/04

49 48 1 1 1

9/24-26/04**

54 41 2 - 3

9/13-15/04

52 44 2 - 2

9/3-5/04

49 48 2 - 1

8/23-25/04

47 48 2 - 3

8/9-11/04

48 47 2 1 2

7/30 - 8/1/04

48 48 1 - 3

7/30-31/04

47 50 1 - 2

7/19-21/04

45 49 3 - 3

7/8-11/04

44 51 2 1 3

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** 9/04 and earlier: "Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, or George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, or Bush and Cheney, the Republicans?" Options rotated

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,014 likely voters nationwide. MoE 3.1.

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"If the election for president were held today, and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were the Republican candidates, John Kerry and John Edwards were the Democratic candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo were running as independent candidates, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean at this time?"

.

Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Nader/
Camejo
None/
Other (vol.)
Unsure
% % % % %

Among likely voters:

10/29-31/04 48 47 1 2 2
10/16-18/04 48 48 1 1 2
9/17-19/04 50 46 1 1 2

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Trend, among registered voters:

10/16-18/04 48 46 2 1 3
9/17-19/04 48 45 2 1 4
8/23-25/04 47 45 3 1 4
7/19-21/04 47 45 2 1 5

Earlier polling on the general election

 


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