WH2004: General (5)

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White House 2004: General Election (p. 5)

Polls listed chronologically. All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. June 21-23, 2004. N=722 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 4.
						.
"If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: John Kerry, the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward John Kerry, the Democrat, or Bush, the Republican?" Names rotated
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Neither (vol.)	Other (vol.)	No Opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/21-23/04	49	48	1	-	2
	6/3-6/04	44	50	2	1	3
	5/21-23/04	47	49	1	-	3
	5/7-9/04	48	47	2	1	2
	5/2-4/04	48	49	1	-	2
	4/16-18/04	51	46	2	-	1
	4/5-8/04	48	45	4	1	2
	3/26-28/04	51	47	1	-	1
	3/5-7/04	44	52	2	1	1
	2/16-17/04	43	55	1	-	1
	2/6-8/04	49	48	1	-	2
	1/29 - 2/1/04	46	53	-	-	1
	1/9-11/04	55	43	1	-	1
	Among registered voters:
	11/03	52	46	1	-	1
	9/03	47	48	2	1	2
						.
"Now suppose Ralph Nader runs as an independent candidate, who would you be most likely to vote for: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican, or Nader, the independent?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican, or Nader, the independent?" Names rotated
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	None/ Other (vol.)	No Opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/21-23/04	48	47	3	-	2
	6/3-6/04	43	49	5	1	2
	5/21-23/04	46	47	4	1	2
	5/7-9/04	47	45	5	2	1
	5/2-4/04	47	47	3	1	2
	4/16-18/04	50	44	4	-	2
	4/5-8/04	47	43	4	3	3
	3/26-28/04	49	45	4	1	1
	3/5-7/04	44	50	2	2	2

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. June 17-20, 2004. N=1,015 registered voters nationwide. Fieldwork by TNS.
						.
"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, or Ralph Nader, the independent?" If undecided: "Which one are you leaning toward?" Names rotated. Trend includes variation in wording.
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	None/ Wouldn't Vote (vol.)	No Opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/17-20/04	44	48	6	1	1
	5/20-23/04	46	46	4	2	1
	4/15-18/04	48	43	6	3	-
	3/4-7/04	44	48	3	3	2
						.
Asked of Nader supporters and undecideds: "If Nader does not run or is not on the ballot, for whom would you vote: Bush or Kerry?" If undecided: "Which one are you leaning toward?" Names rotated.
	Combined results of this question and preceding question:
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Neither (vol.)	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)	No Opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/17-20/04	45	53	1	1	-
	5/20-23/04	47	49	1	1	1
	4/15-18/04	49	48	2	1	-
						.
	TREND: "If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush, the Republican, or for John Kerry, the Democrat?" Names rotated
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other/ Neither (vol.)	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)	No Opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
	3/4-7/04	44	53	1	1	1
	2/10-11/04	43	52	3	1	1
	10/03	52	43	2	1	2
	Among ALL adults:
	9/03	54	39	3	2	2
	4/03	60	34	2	1	2

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. June 3-13, 2004. N=1,426 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.
.
"Now, suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY. If you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader, who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated
.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Other/ Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	6/3-13/04	46	42	6	6
	5/3-9/04	43	46	6	5
	3/22-28/04	44	43	6	7
	3/17-21/04	42	49	4	5
.
"Suppose there were only two major candidates for president and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat -- who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated
.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other/ Unsure
		%	%	%
	6/3-13/04	48	46	6
	5/3-9/04	45	50	5
	3/22-28/04	46	47	7
	3/17-21/04	43	52	5
	2/24-29/04	44	48	8
	2/11-16/04	47	47	6
	12/19/03 - 1/4/04	52	41	7
	10/03	50	42	8

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. June 8-9, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.
						.
"In the presidential election, let's say the Republican ticket is President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry for president and [see below] for vice president. If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"
						.
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Gephardt	Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	6/8-9/04	44	45	3	8
	5/18-19/04	43	42	3	12
						.
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Dean	Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	6/8-9/04	44	45	3	8

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. June 7-9, 2004. N=788 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.5 (total sample).
					.
"I'm going to read you the names of some possible running mates for John Kerry on the Democratic ticket for president this year. Please tell me which one of the following individuals you would most like to see John Kerry choose as a candidate for vice president. [See below.]" Half-sample (Form A)
					.
				ALL	Democrats
				%	%
	North Carolina Senator John Edwards			36	43
	Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt			19	19
	Retired General Wesley Clark			18	18
	Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack			4	4
	Other/None of these (vol.)			6	4
	Undecided			17	12
					.
"I'm going to read you the names of some possible running mates for John Kerry on the Democratic ticket for president this year. Please tell me which one of the following individuals you would most like to see John Kerry choose as a candidate for vice president. [See below.]" Half-sample (Form B)
					.
				ALL	Democrats
				%	%
	North Carolina Senator John Edwards			34	42
	New York Senator Hillary Clinton			24	31
	Retired General Wesley Clark			17	13
	Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt			12	8
	Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack			2	3
	Other/None of these (vol.)			3	1
	Undecided			8	2
					.
"Do you think President Bush should keep Dick Cheney as his vice-presidential running mate in 2004, or do you think he should pick someone else?"
					.
		Keep Cheney	Someone Else	Unsure
		%	%	%
	ALL	51	43	6
	Republicans	68	28	4
					.
"If the election were held today and the candidates were George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, the Republicans, and John Kerry for president and [see below] for vice president, the Democrats, and Ralph Nader, the independent, for whom would you vote?" If "other," "none," or "not sure": "Do you lean more toward [see below]?"
					.
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Gephardt	Ralph Nader	Other/ None (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/7-9/04	47	45	6	1	1
					.
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Clark	Ralph Nader	Other/ None (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/7-9/04	47	43	6	1	2
					.
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Vilsack	Ralph Nader	Other/ None (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/7-9/04	47	43	7	2	1

The Los Angeles Times Poll. June 5-8, 2004. N=1,230 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.
.
"If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat, for whom would you vote: Bush, or Kerry?" Names rotated. Includes leaners.
.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Someone Else (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	6/5-8/04	44	51	1	4
	3/27-30/04	46	49	-	5
.
"If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader running as an independent, for whom would you vote: Bush, Kerry or Nader?" Names rotated. Includes leaners.
.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Someone Else (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/5-8/04	42	48	4	1	5
	3/27-30/04	44	47	4	-	5

CBS News Poll. May 20-23, 2004. N=923 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3 (total sample).
						.
"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry for president and John McCain for vice president, and George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, would you vote for Kerry and McCain or Bush and Cheney?" Names rotated
						.
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ McCain	Other/ Depends (vol.)	Won't Vote (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	ALL	39	53	3	1	4
	Republicans	80	15	0	1	4
	Democrats	11	80	3	1	5
	Independents	31	57	4	2	6

Mother Jones poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). May 17-22, 2004. N=1,007 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.1.
					.
"Thinking about the elections in November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George Bush and the Democrat John Kerry, for whom would you vote: George Bush or John Kerry?"

		George Bush	John Kerry	Other (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	5/17-22/04	44	49	1	6
					.
"It the candidates for president were Republican George Bush, Democrat John Kerry, and independent Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?"

		George Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Other (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	5/17-22/04	43	46	5	1	5

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. May 18-19, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.
						.
"In the presidential election, let's say the Republican ticket is President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney versus a Democratic ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry for president and [see below] for vice president. If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"
						.
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	5/18-19/04	43	43	3	11
	3/23-24/04	43	48	2	7
	3/3-4/04	45	45	2	8

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. May 13-14, 2004. N=832 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 4 (for all registered voters).
						.
"Suppose the election for president were being held TODAY and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican; John Kerry, the Democrat; and Ralph Nader, an independent candidate. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican; Kerry, the Democrat; or Nader, the independent?" Names rotated
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Other (vol.)/ Undecided
		%	%	%	%
	ALL	42	43	5	10
	Men	46	41	5	8
	Women	38	45	4	13
	Republicans	85	6	3	6
	Democrats	12	78	2	8
	Independents	35	42	11	12
	Trend:
	4/8-9/04	42	46	4	8
	3/25-26/04	45	43	5	7
	3/18-19/04	45	43	5	7
						.
"Suppose there were only two presidential candidates on the ballot and you HAD TO CHOOSE between George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat. If the election were held TODAY, who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican, or Kerry, the Democrat?" Names rotated
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other (vol.)/ Undecided
		%	%	%
	5/13-14/04	45	46	9
	4/8-9/04	43	50	7
	3/25-26/04	47	48	5
	3/18-19/04	48	48	4
	2/19-20/04	45	48	7
	2/5-6/04	45	50	5
	1/29-30/04	46	48	6
	1/22-23/04	46	49	5
	1/8-9/04	52	41	7
	12/11-12/03	51	41	8
	11/6-7/03	49	45	6
	10/23-24/03	50	42	8
	10/9-10/03	48	42	10
	9/25-26/03	50	42	8
	9/18-19/03	48	43	9
	7/03	50	42	8

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. May 12-13, 2004. N=563 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 4.1.
					.
"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today and you had to choose between John Kerry, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote: Kerry or Bush?"
					.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Not Sure
		%	%	%
	5/12-13/04	46	51	3
	2/5-6/04	50	48	2
	12/30/03 & 1/1/04	54	43	3
	Among all registered voters:
	11/03	49	42	9
	9/03	50	45	5
	12/02	56	39	5
					.
"Now suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today and you had to choose between John Kerry, the Democrat, George W. Bush, the Republican, and Ralph Nader, running as an independent. For whom would you vote: Kerry, Bush, or Nader?"
					.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	5/12-13/04	44	49	6	1

Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R). May 3-6, 2004. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.2.
						.
"If the presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican candidate, John Kerry, the Democratic candidate, and Ralph Nader, the independent candidate, for which candidate would you vote?" If undecided: "Which way do you lean as of today: toward Bush, Kerry, or Nader?"
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Unsure	.
		%	%	%	%	.
	5/3-6/04	45	41	4	11	.
						.
"If the presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican candidate, and John Kerry, the Democratic candidate, for which candidate would you vote?" If undecided: "Which way do you lean as of today: toward Bush or the Democratic candidate?"
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Unsure		.
		%	%	%		.
	5/3-6/04	46	43	11		.

Sacred Heart University Poll. April 26-May 1, 2004. N=885 likely voters nationwide (from a total sample of 1,002 respondents, each of whom was "18 years of age or older and one of the heads of the household").
					.
General Election Trial Heat:
					.
		George Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	4/26 - 5/1/04	42	38	2	19	.

Marist College Poll. April 20-23, 2004. N=787 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.5.
					.
"If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?"
					.
		George Bush	John Kerry	Unsure
		%	%	%
	4/04	47	44	9		.
	304	46	45	9		.
	10/03	48	42	10		.
					.
		George Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	4/04	47	43	5	5	.

InsiderAdvantage/Creators Syndicate poll conducted by the Marketing Workshop. April 12-14, 2004. N=500 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 4.
					.
"If the presidential election were held today, would you vote for . . . ?"
					.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Other/ Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	4/12-14/04	37	43	2	18
	3/18-19/04	46	41	4	9

Public Interest Projects poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). April 5-8, 2004. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.1.
					.
"Thinking again about the elections in November, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry, for whom would you vote: Republican George W. Bush or Democrat John Kerry?"

		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	4/04	49	47	1	3

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. March 23-24, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.
						.
"What if the Democratic ticket is Senator John Kerry for president and New York Senator Hillary Clinton for vice president versus a Republican ticket of President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney? If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"
						.
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Clinton	Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	3/23-24/04	47	42	4	7
	3/3-4/04	47	42	4	7
						.
"What if the Democratic ticket is Senator John Kerry for president and Senator John Edwards for vice president versus a Republican ticket of President George W. Bush and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani? If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"
						.
		Bush/ Giuliani	Kerry/ Edwards	Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	3/23-24/04	45	44	3	8
						.
"What if the Democratic ticket is Senator John Kerry for president and Senator Hillary Clinton for vice president versus a Republican ticket of President George W. Bush and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani? If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"
						.
		Bush/ Giuliani	Kerry/ Clinton	Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	3/23-24/04	47	42	4	7

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. March 18-19, 2004. N=838 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 4 (for all registered voters).
						.
"Suppose the election for president were being held TODAY and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican; John Kerry, the Democrat; and Ralph Nader, an independent candidate. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican; Kerry, the Democrat; or Nader, the independent?" Names rotated
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Other (vol.)/ Undecided
		%	%	%	%
	ALL	45	43	5	7
	Men	50	41	4	5
	Women	42	45	6	7
	18-29 years	38	48	7	7
	30-49	54	37	5	4
	50-64	43	45	6	6
	65 & older	35	53	4	8
	Republicans	88	8	1	3
	Democrats	11	81	4	4
	Independents	35	43	12	10

CBS News/New York Times Poll. March 10-14, 2004. N=984 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.
						.
"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were John Kerry for president and [see below] for vice president, the Democrats, and George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, the Republicans, would you vote for Kerry and [see below] or Bush and Cheney?"
						.
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Gephardt	Won't Vote (vol.)	Depends (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	3/10-14/04	47	41	1	2	9

*NBC News/Wall Street Journal* Poll** conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). March 6-8, 2004. N=1,018 adults nationwide. MoE ą 3.1 (total sample).
					.
"If the election for president were held today, and John Kerry and John Edwards were running as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were running as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader were running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?"
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Ralph Nader	Depends/ None/ Other (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%	%
	3/6-8/04	45	45	3	3	4
					.
"If the election for president were held today, and John Kerry and Dick Gephardt were running as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were running as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader were running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?" Half sample (Form A)
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Gephardt	Ralph Nader	Depends/ None/ Other (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%	%
	3/6-8/04	46	40	5	3	6
					.
"If the election for president were held today, and John Kerry and Hillary Clinton were running as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were running as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader were running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?" Half sample (Form B)
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Clinton	Ralph Nader	Depends/ None/ Other (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%	%
	3/6-8/04	47	44	4	4	2

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor poll conducted by TIPP, the polling arm of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. March 1-7, 2004. N=828 registered voters nationwide.
						.
"If the 2004 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat John Kerry, Republican George W. Bush or independent Ralph Nader?"
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	ALL	41	44	6	8
	Northeast	34	48	10	8
	Midwest	39	47	4	10
	South	44	41	6	7
	West	44	42	6	7
	Men	46	38	8	7
	Women	37	50	4	8
	Whites	46	40	6	7
	Blacks & Hispanics	21	62	7	9

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. March 3-4, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.
						.
"What if the Democratic ticket is Senator John Kerry for president and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson for vice president versus a Republican ticket of President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney? If the election were held today, which ticket would you support?"
						.
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Richardson	Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	3/3-4/04	46	41	3	10

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. March 1-3, 2004. N=771 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.5. (Data from 11/03 and earlier co-sponsored by *Cook Political Report.)*
					.
"If the election were held today, would you definitely vote to reelect George W. Bush as president, consider voting for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else as president?"
		Definitely Bush	Consider Someone Else	Vote for Someone Else	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	3/1-3/04	40	16	42	2
	2/2-4/04	37	18	43	2
	1/5-7/04	41	24	33	2
	12/15-17/03	45	21	31	3
	12/1-3/03	41	20	36	3
	11/18-20/03	37	25	37	1
	11/4-6/03	39	24	35	2
	10/21-23/03	40	24	33	3
	10/7-9/03	36	26	35	3
	9/16-18/03	41	22	35	2
	9/2-4/03	38	24	36	2
	8/19-21/03	40	25	32	3
	8/5-8/03	44	21	32	3
	7/22-24/03	40	23	35	2
	7/8-10/03	41	26	31	2
	6/17-19/03	40	26	32	2
	6/3-5/03	44	22	31	3
	5/20-22/03	45	23	30	2
	5/6-8/03	43	22	31	4
	4/15-17/03	47	24	26	3
	4/1-3/03	46	20	30	4
	3/18-20/03	46	19	32	3
	3/4-6/03	38	22	37	3
	2/18-20/03	41	26	31	2
	2/4-6/03	42	22	32	4
	1/21-23/03	40	25	32	3
	1/7-9/03	42	25	30	3
	12/17-19/02	43	26	28	3
	12/3-5/02	44	24	29	3
	11/19-21/02	48	24	25	3
	10/28 - 11/3/02 *	46	21	30	3
	10/28-31/02	42	26	28	4
	10/25-27/02	43	27	26	4
	10/15-17/02	43	28	27	2
	10/1-3/02	45	27	25	3
	9/20-22/02	48	25	24	3
	9/16-19/02	46	27	24	3
	9/3-5/02	43	29	24	4
	8/16-18/02	41	27	29	3
	8/2-4/02	41	30	27	2
	7/18-21/02	42	30	25	3
	7/11-14/02	42	31	24	3
	6/21-23/02	49	26	22	3
	6/7-9/02	49	26	23	2
	5/17-19/02	48	25	24	3
	5/3-6/02	48	24	25	3
	4/19-21/02	50	26	21	3
	4/12-14 & 19-21/02	52	24	21	3
	3/14-17/02	53	22	22	3
	3/1-3/02	51	24	23	2
	2/1-3 & 15-17/02	55	23	18	3
	1/18-21 & 2/1-3/02	56	23	18	2
	1/4-6/02	53	27	19	1
	11/30 - 12/2/01	56	24	16	4
					.
	* Among likely voters
					.
"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?" If "other" or "not sure": "Do you lean more toward Kerry or Bush?"
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other/ Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	1/5-7/04	54	37	3	6
	10/21-23/03	53	34	5	8

Andres McKenna Research. Feb. 23-March 1, 2004. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.5.
					.
"If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote: President Bush or Senator Kerry?" Names rotated
					.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Unsure
		%	%	%
	2-3/04	45	47	9
	7/03	49	30	22

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Feb. 24-29, 2004. N=749 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 4.
.
"Suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY, and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, or John Kerry, the Democrat. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated
.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other/ Unsure
		%	%	%
	2/24-29/04	44	48	8
	2/11-16/04	47	47	6
	12/19/03 - 1/4/04	52	41	7
	10/03	50	42	8

CBS News Poll. Feb. 24-27, 2004. N=1,294 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3 (for all registered voters).
						.
"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, do you think you would probably vote for George W. Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"
		George W. Bush	Democrat	Can't Say Until Chosen (vol.)	None/ Won't Vote (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/24-27/04	43	48	5	2	2
	2/12-15/04	42	47	6	0	5
	1/12-15/04	43	45	7	1	4
	12/21-22/03	49	40	6	1	4
						.
"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were [see below], the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican, would you vote for [see below] or George W. Bush?"
						.
		George W. Bush	John Edwards	Won't Vote (vol.)	Depends (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/24-27/04	45	45	2	3	5
	2/12-15/04	50	41	1	3	5

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Feb. 19-20, 2004. N=873 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 4.
					.
"Suppose the next general election for president were being held TODAY and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and [see below], the Democrat. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican, or [see below], the Democrat?" Names rotated
					.
		George W. Bush	John Edwards	Other (vol.)/ Undecided
		%	%	%
	2/19-20/04	46	46	8
	2/5-6/04	49	44	7
	1/29-30/04	49	44	7
	1/22-23/04	49	46	5
	1/8-9/04	54	38	8
	12/18-19/03	51	40	9
	12/11-12/03	51	39	10
					.
"We're interested in how you would vote if an election were held TODAY with the following choices for president and vice president. If you had to choose between a Republican ticket of George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, and a Democratic ticket of John Kerry for president and John Edwards for vice president, which ticket would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats?" Options rotated
					.
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Other (vol.)/ Undecided
		%	%	%
	2/19-20/04	45	49	6

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Feb. 18-19, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.
						.
"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat [see below]?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision
						.
		George W. Bush	John Edwards	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%
	2/18-19/04	46	41	11	2
	2/4-5/04	50	37	11	2
	1/21-22/04	51	39	9	1

*CNN/USA Today/Gallup* Poll. Feb. 16-17, 2004. N=568 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 4.
						.
"If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat, or Bush, the Republican?" Names rotated
						.
		George W. Bush	John Edwards	Neither (vol.)	Other (vol.)	No Opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/16-17/04	44	54	1	-	1
	2/6-8/04	50	46	2	-	2
	1/29 - 2/1/04	48	49	2	-	1

University of Connecticut Poll. Feb. 12-16, 2004. N=1,121 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 2.9.
						.
"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, and George W. Bush was running as the Republican candidate and John Kerry was the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?"
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%
	2/12-16/04	45	46	2	6

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Feb. 11-16, 2004. N=1,149 registered voters nationwide.
.
"Suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY, and the candidates were [see below]. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated.
.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other/ Unsure
		%	%	%
	ALL	47	47	6
	Men	54	41	5
	Women	41	53	6
	East	40	55	5
	Midwest	45	51	4
	South	52	42	6
	West	47	46	7
	Trend:
	12/19/03 - 1/4/04	52	41	7
	10/03	50	42	8

CBS News Poll. Feb. 12-15, 2004. N=1,046 registered voters nationwide.
						.
"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were [see below], the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican, would you vote for [see below] or George W. Bush?"
						.
		George W. Bush	Howard Dean	Won't Vote (vol.)	Depends (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/12-15/04	54	37	2	1	6

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Feb. 10-15, 2004. N=1,010 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.1.
					.
"I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections this year, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and the Democratic nominee for president, for whom would you vote: Republican George Bush or the Democratic nominee for president?"
		Bush	Democrat	Other (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	2/10-15/04	47	49	1	3
	1/13-18/04	49	45	1	5
	10/03	47	47	1	5
	9/03	47	45	1	6
	8/03	46	42	2	10
	7/03	49	43	2	7
	6/03	51	40	2	7
	5/03	52	40	1	6
	1/03	48	41	1	10
	7/02	52	37	1	10
	6/01	44	44	3	9

*CNN/USA Today/Gallup* Poll. Feb. 6-8, 2004. N=765 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 4.
						.
"If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat, or Bush, the Republican?" Names rotated
						.
		George W. Bush	Wesley Clark	Neither (vol.)	Other (vol.)	No Opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/6-8/04	51	46	1	-	2
	1/29 - 2/1/04	50	47	2	-	1
	1/9-11/04	56	42	1	-	1
	Among registered voters:
	12/15-16/03	56	40	2	-	2
	11/03	50	47	1	-	2
	9/03	46	49	2	-	3
						.
		George W. Bush	Howard Dean	Neither (vol.)	Other (vol.)	No Opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/6-8/04	53	43	2	-	2
	1/29 - 2/1/04	52	45	3	-	-
	1/9-11/04	56	41	1	-	2
	1/2-5/04	59	37	2	-	2
	Among registered voters:
	12/15-16/03	60	37	1	-	2
	12/11-14/03	52	44	2	-	2
	11/03	53	44	1	-	2
	9/03	49	46	2	1	2

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Feb. 5-6, 2004. N=822 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 4.
					.
"Suppose the next general election for president were being held TODAY and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and [see below], the Democrat. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican, or [see below], the Democrat?" Names rotated
					.
		George W. Bush	Howard Dean	Other (vol.)/ Undecided
		%	%	%
	2/5-6/04	50	44	6
	1/29-30/04	52	40	8
	1/22-23/04	50	45	5
	1/8-9/04	51	43	6
	12/18-19/03	53	40	7
	12/11-12/03	49	42	9
	11/6-7/03	49	45	6
	10/23-24/03	49	43	8
	10/9-10/03	49	40	11
	9/25-26/03	52	38	10
	9/18-19/03	52	38	10
	9/11-12/03	53	37	10
	7/03	53	38	9
					.
		George W. Bush	Wesley Clark	Other (vol.)/ Undecided
		%	%	%
	2/5-6/04	51	43	6
	1/29-30/04	53	41	6
	1/22-23/04	48	47	5
	1/8-9/04	50	41	9
	12/18-19/03	53	41	6
	12/11-12/03	49	43	8
	11/6-7/03	48	45	7
	10/23-24/03	49	43	8
	10/9-10/03	47	43	10
	9/25-26/03	49	43	8
	9/18-19/03	47	43	10

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Feb. 5-6, 2004. N=580 likely voters nationwide. MoE ą 4.1.
					.
"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today and you had to choose between [see below], the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote: [see below]?"
					.
		George W. Bush	John Edwards	Not Sure
		%	%	%
	2/5-6/04	52	46	2
	12/30/03 & 1/1/04	53	43	4
	Among all registered voters:
	11/03	52	39	9
					.
		George W. Bush	Wesley Clark	Not Sure
		%	%	%
	2/5-6/04	55	41	4
	12/30/03 & 1/1/04	53	43	4
	Among all registered voters:
	11/03	49	42	9

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Feb. 4-5, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ą 3.
						.
"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat [see below]?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision
						.
		George W. Bush	Howard Dean	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%
	2/4-5/04	54	35	8	3
	1/21-22/04	54	34	9	3
	1/7-8/04	54	33	10	3
	11/03	49	36	12	3
	7/03	55	27	15	3
						.
		George W. Bush	Wesley Clark	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%
	2/4-5/04	53	34	10	3
	1/21-22/04	51	37	11	1
	1/7-8/04	52	32	14	2
	11/03	49	36	13	2
	9/03	46	37	7	10
						.
		George W. Bush	Hillary Clinton	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%
	2/4-5/04	53	36	7	4
	1/21-22/04	52	39	7	2
	11/03	52	38	8	2
	7/03	52	35	10	3
	5/03	60	30	8	2
	11/02	59	24	16	1
	8/02	58	28	12	2
	1/01	45	34	21	-

Earlier polling on the general election

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