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Pew Research Center 11/6
Public Divided Over Afghan Troop Requests
As President Obama and his staff weigh their difficult choices in the Afghanistan theater, the public also appears to be finding it difficult to judge the merits of different options for expanding, maintaining or contracting the U.S. effort on that front. . . .

L.A. Times 11/6
Voters oppose putting gay marriage on ballot next year
A small majority of California voters supports the right of gay couples to marry, but a much larger portion of voters opposes efforts to place the issue back on the ballot next year, a new Los Angeles Times/USC poll has found. . . .

Harvard School of Public Health 11/6
Majority Unable to Get H1N1 Vaccine
A new national poll from Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) researchers found that a majority of adults who tried to get the H1N1 vaccine for themselves or their children have been unable to do so. . . .

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ABC News 11/6
Year After Obama vs. McCain, Obama vs. the Economy
A year after he went one-on-one with John McCain, Barack Obama's now playing for time. For all that's transpired since his election as president, public opinion has not moved on the big issue, the current economy. . . .

Alan I. Abramowitz 11/5
What Happens in VA and NJ Stays in VA and NJ
... Before we conclude that Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey provide an early indication of what is likely to happen in next year's midterm elections, we need to take a more systematic look at the evidence. . . .

Monmouth University Polling Institute 11/5
New Jersey: Who Voted, Where and How?
Well, the pundits said that turnout would be the name of the game in New Jersey this year. The problem is we were looking at the wrong type of turnout. While we were busy focusing on core Democratic areas, the Republicans upped the ante on their own turf. . . .

Washington Post 11/5
For parties, the soul-searching begins
... [M]oderate and conservative Democrats took a clear signal from Tuesday's voting, warning that the results prove that independent voters are wary of Obama's far-reaching proposals and mounting spending, as well as the growing federal debt. . . .

Washington Post 11/5
As GOP celebrates, internal ideological battles remain
... As the party turns toward the 2010 midterm elections, pitched battles between moderates and conservatives -- and between the Washington establishment and the conservative grass roots -- are underway from Florida to Illinois to California. . . .

John Zogby 11/4
Reading Tuesday's election results
So what did we learn from Tuesday's elections? And what lessons should Democrats and Republicans draw from the results? . . .

Gallup 11/4
Political Climate Not as Favorable to Democrats
The 2010 election cycle begins in a political climate that is shaping up to be not as favorable to the Democratic Party as the 2006 and 2008 elections were. . . .

Glen Bolger 11/4
VA: An Analysis of Bob McDonnell's Win
Democrat claims that Bob McDonnell's victory in Virginia is just a Republican electorate reasserting itself and has nothing to do with Barack Obama are simply trying to put lipstick on a pig. Saying Virginia is a Republican state is like saying the Washington Redskins are a well-run organization. It was once true, but not any more. . . .

Washington Post: Dan Balz 11/4
Warning to Democrats: It's not 2008 anymore
... Neither gubernatorial election amounted to a referendum on the president, but the changing shape of the electorates in both states and the shifts among key constituencies revealed cracks in the Obama 2008 coalition and demonstrated that, at this point, Republicans have the more energized constituency heading into next year's midterm elections. . . .

ABC News 11/4
Exit Polls: Voters Approve of Obama, Wary of Economy
Vast economic discontent marked the mood of Tuesday's off-year voters, portending potential trouble for incumbents generally and Democrats in particular in 2010. Still the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey looked less like a referendum on Barack Obama than a reflection of their own candidates and issues. . . .

David Hill 11/4
Ball-watchers focus on prior results
... While most fans try to follow the ball on every play, the expert's field of view widens to pay attention to defensive schemes, pulling linemen, downfield blocking and a host of other things nowhere near the ball. I wish most political pundits had a wider field of view. . . .

Mark Mellman 11/4
Tell me something I don't know
By the time you read this, thousands of words will have been written about what Tuesday's elections portend — not for the people of New Jersey, Virginia and New York's 23rd congressional district, but for the fate of Democrats and Republicans in 2010. . . .

Democracy Corps 11/3
The Economy at a Sensitive Juncture
With GDP growth having finally returned, but unemployment still rising slowly toward 10 percent, the economy is at a sensitive juncture as an issue for the 2010 elections. . . .

New York Times 11/3
3 Contests Could Signal Political Winds
In this supposedly quiet off-year election, there are three contests taking place Tuesday that are filling the void. Voters in New Jersey and Virginia will elect a governor, while voters in upstate New York are filling a vacant House seat in a race with national implications. Here are some things to look for as the results come in. . . .

Pew Research Center 11/2
End of Communism Cheered but with More Reservations
Nearly two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, publics of former Iron Curtain countries generally look back approvingly at the collapse of communism. ... However, the initial widespread enthusiasm about these changes has dimmed in most of the countries surveyed. . . .

ABC News: Gary Langer 11/2
Tomorrow's Elections: An Obama Referendum?
While spinmeisters from both sides will do their best after tomorrow’s results are in, it's a dicey business to draw broad conclusions from state and local off-year elections. ... But first things first: Is tomorrow's voting a referendum on Barack Obama? . . .

Gallup 11/2
Generic Ballot Provides Clues for 2010 Vote
One year from today, U.S. voters will head to the polls to elect all 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives. Gallup measures voting intentions in midterm elections using the generic congressional ballot, which has proven an accurate predictor of the eventual vote in midterm elections. . . .

John Harwood 11/2
If Fox Is Partisan, It Is Not Alone
The Obama White House's decision to challenge Fox News appears driven equally by strategy and frustration. It is also a test case for politicians in both parties. That is because partisan fragmentation throughout America's news media and their audiences has grown significantly. . . .

Frank Luntz 11/1
Health Reform Language Highlights
I was there in 1994. I saw what happened when a once-popular president tried to push healthcare legislation that Americans didn't want or appreciate. . . .

Ronald Brownstein 10/31
A Reaganite Or Jacksonian Wave?
... From the White House to Capitol Hill, Democrats are wagering that they can sell Americans on a sweeping and in some ways unprecedented expansion of government's reach to confront both the immediate economic downturn and such long-term challenges as health care and climate change. . . .

Gallup 10/30
Americans on Healthcare Reform: Five Key Realities
Americans are closely divided on the issue of passing comprehensive healthcare reform, meaning that public opinion offers no real political advantage to either champions or opponents of the idea. That said, a review of Gallup polls conducted throughout the debate reveals five realities crucial to understanding public opinion on this issue. . . .

Larry J. Sabato 10/29
VA: Look to the north stars
We're heading 'round the final bend in this year's Virginia contest for governor, so it's time to take a look at our traditional gubernatorial "north stars." These stars, fixed in the firmament and reliable indicators for decades, have long guided our prognostications. . . .

New York Times: Marjorie Connelly 10/29
Polls and the Public Option
In recent weeks, polls kept showing solid support for a public insurance option, seeming to breathe new life into its viability as a provision of the health care legislation under way in Congress. In fact, advocates of a public option, from left-leaning groups to pundits to lawmakers, seized on each new number and trumpeted the news across the 24/7 news spectrum of Twitter, TV ads, blogs and headlines. . . .

John Kenneth White (in The Polling Report) 10/28
Barack Obama's America
In 1970, Richard Scammon and Ben Wattenberg famously defined the "Real Majority" as being "un-young, un-poor, and un-black." ... A shift in the nation's demography and cultural thinking is tilting the electoral landscape in favor of the Democrats. Since 1970, the U.S. has experienced four historic transformations: (1) a racial revolution where whites will be a minority of the U.S. population by mid-century; (2) a revolution in family structures where having a mom, dad, and kids living at home with their biological parents is no longer the norm; (3) a gay rights revolution where greater tolerance toward homosexuals prevails; and (4) a religious revolution where the location of faith is not necessarily in a church building, but in the heart of the individual. Taken together, these trends are undermining Scammon and Wattenberg's Real Majority. This was especially noticeable in 2008, when John McCain performed well among un-young, un-poor, and un-black voters -- and still lost. . . .

USA Today 10/28
1-year poll shows changed views on Obama
Shannon Norris thinks President Obama deserves more time to deliver on his promises from last year's campaign. But not too much more. ... As the anniversary of the election approaches, the tidal wave of hope that swept Obama into office has ebbed and some perceptions of the president have changed, the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds. . . .

David Hill 10/28
Gallup says conservatism surging
... But where the Gallup report gets juiciest is in its more important assertion that Americans are also shifting to the conservative perspective on some specific issues, notably government regulation, the influence of labor unions, gun laws, global warming, abortion and even "traditional values." . . .

E.J. Dionne 10/28
Is America really becoming more conservative?
If I were a conservative, I would probably tout the new Gallup study showing that conservatives now outnumber moderates, as Bill Kristol did in his column on Tuesday. But I'd be wary of making too much of what is a rather small shift in the ideological self-description of Americans. And out of curiosity, I checked around with other pollsters to see what they were finding. The results were mixed. . . .

Mark Mellman 10/28
Ironies of healthcare reform
In a republic such as ours, public policy is only loosely related to public opinion. Nonetheless, it is ironic that the most controversial element of healthcare reform with the public seems least controversial on Capitol Hill, while what is most controversial there is least controversial with voters. . . .

Democracy Corps 10/27
2010 Congressional Battleground
... A new survey from Democracy Corps conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research across the 75 most competitive congressional districts suggests potential losses for the Democrats well within the normal historical range. Their losses will be offset by some further Republican losses and are unlikely to approach what it would take for Republicans to regain congressional control. . .

Washington Post 10/27
The Obama factor: Virginia edition
Virginia Democrats hope President Obama's campaign stop today in Norfolk will boost Democratic gubernatorial candidate R. Creigh Deeds' standing and improve turnout in the final days of the campaign, but most in a new Washington Post poll say the president will not affect their vote next Tuesday. . . .

Washington Post 10/27
McDonnell has double-digit lead in Va. governor's race
Republican Robert F. McDonnell carries a double-digit lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds into the final week of the campaign for Virginia governor, according to a new Washington Post poll. . . .

Gallup 10/26
Conservatives Maintain Edge as Top Ideological Group
Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. . . .

Anti-Defamation League 10/26
American Support For Israel Remains Solid
The American people's strong support for Israel remains constant and their support for action to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power has substantially increased, according to a new nationwide survey released by the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) today. . . .

Patrick Murray 10/26
NJ: Understanding Unaffiliated Voters
It's time to clear up some confusion about unaffiliated and independent voters. If you are a member of the media who reports on New Jersey election polls or turnout, you should read this. . . .

Washington Post 10/25
Va. GOP makes timely changes
... The changes in Virginia have mirrored shifts that have occurred nationally, helping Democrats win elections by appealing to increasingly diverse, moderate, well-educated and affluent suburban voters outside such cities as Philadelphia, Denver and Minneapolis. ... National Republicans think a victory by McDonnell, who has led in every poll since June, would resonate well beyond Virginia because it would show that although many new, suburban voters have backed Democrats in recent elections, they're not wedded to the party. . . .

Patrick Egan & Joshua Tucker 10/25
Obama and the politics of an Afghanistan troop surge
President Obama faces an enormous political challenge in figuring out how to respond to General Stanley McChrystal's request for more soldiers in Afghanistan. ... No matter what choice Obama makes, he should not be deluded into thinking that his rhetorical gifts can move public opinion on this issue. According to research by Professor George Edwards of Texas A&M University, recent presidents, no matter how golden-tongued, have had virtually no power to change public opinion on foreign policy. . . .

USA Today 10/24
Hopes buoyed on race relations
While some of the soaring optimism of Election Day has tempered, more than six in 10 Americans predict in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll that Barack Obama's presidency will improve race relations in the United States in the years ahead. . . .

Kaiser (pdf)  10/23
Health tracking poll
In contrast to recent months, public opinion on health care reform stabilized in October with no dramatic changes in support, opposition or even public interest. A majority continues to say now is the time for health care reform; several key proposals (individual mandate, public plan) garner public support; opinion on policy specifics remains malleable; partisans are poles apart; and a significant minority remains concerned about their personal welfare if health care reform passes. . . .

Gallup 10/22
Half See Own Costs Worsening Under Healthcare Bill
Compared with last month, Americans have become more likely to say the costs their family pays for healthcare will get worse if a healthcare bill passes. Forty-nine percent of Americans say this, up from 42% in September. Meanwhile, the percentage who expect their costs to improve is unchanged. . . .

Pew 10/22
Fewer See Solid Evidence of Global Warming
There has been a sharp decline over the past year in the percentage of Americans who say there is solid evidence that global temperatures are rising. And fewer also see global warming as a very serious problem – 35% say that today, down from 44% in April 2008. . . .

Rhodes Cook 10/22
Presidents and their party's primaries
On many of the great issues of the day, President Barack Obama has drawn some criticism for a lack of decisive leadership. But he has shown little hesitation in taking sides in some high-profile Democratic primaries that could just as readily divide the party in 2010 as unite it. . . .

Washington Post 10/22
Despite H1N1 fears, many worry about vaccination
Americans have become increasingly alarmed about the swine flu, but many are wary about getting vaccinated against the disease, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

Gallup 10/21
Obama Quarterly Approval Average Slips to 53%
In Gallup Daily tracking that spans Barack Obama's third quarter in office (July 20 through Oct. 19), the president averaged a 53% job approval rating. That is down sharply from his prior quarterly averages, which were both above 60%. . . .

Harvard School of Public Health 10/21
MA: Physicians Support Continuing Health Reform Law
A study published in today's New England Journal of Medicine finds that a large majority (70%) of practicing physicians in Massachusetts support health reform three years after its passage in 2006. . . .

Washington Post 10/21
U.S. deeply split on troop increase for Afghan war
As President Obama and his war cabinet deliberate a new strategy for the war in Afghanistan, Americans are evenly and deeply divided over whether he should send 40,000 more troops there, and public approval of the president's handling of the situation has tumbled, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

USA Today 10/21
Americans skittish over health changes
Americans are increasingly worried about the cost and quality of medical care that could result from President Obama's effort to revamp health care, but a majority still trust him more than Republicans to change the system, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows. . . .

Mark Mellman 10/21
Thank heaven for Republicans
With Democrats allegedly on the ropes and voters concerned about rising debt and reeling from growing unemployment, you might think Republicans would be sitting pretty. They aren't -- the Republican brand is in tatters -- and Democrats should be grateful for the GOP's political ineptitude. . . .

ABC News 10/20
Pols, Polls and Pushback
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich had some pretty harsh criticism of our latest poll today, charging in a radio interview that it was "deliberately rigged." He's entitled, of course, to his opinion. But not to a distortion of the facts. . . .

Washington Post 10/19
Majority now supports public health insurance option
As Democratic congressional leaders and White House officials work to shape health care bills that will go to the House and Senate floors, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that support for a government-run health plan to compete with private insurers has rebounded from its summertime lows and now wins clear majority support from the public. . . .

Dan Balz 10/18
2010 Threat to Democrats Comes From Three Directions
Three forces threaten Democrats in the 2010 elections: populist anger on the right, disaffection in the middle and potential disillusionment on the left. . . .

Ronald Brownstein 10/17
Is the American Dream a Myth?
One tenet that separates the United States from other countries is our belief in upward mobility. ... But as Brookings Institution scholars Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill demonstrate in a compelling new book, America's record doesn't entirely justify this optimism. . . .

Democracy Corps 10/16
Conservative Republicans: A world apart
The self-identifying conservative Republicans who make up the base of the Republican Party stand a world apart from the rest of America, according to focus groups conducted by Democracy Corps. These base Republican voters ... identify themselves as part of a 'mocked' minority with a set of shared beliefs and knowledge, and commitment to oppose Obama that sets them apart from the majority in the country. . . .

Center for American Progress 10/16
Shriver Report: A Woman’s Nation Changes Everything
... This is a report about how women becoming half of workers changes everything for men, women, and their families. The Rockefeller/Time nationwide poll, conducted in early September as the chapters of the report were being finalized, finds that the battle of the sexes is over and is replaced by negotiations between the sexes about work, family, household responsibilities, child care, and elder care. . . .

New York Times 10/16
Poll Finds Little Faith in New Jersey's Candidates
In New Jersey, one of only two states with governor's races this year, voters are gloomy about the future, upset about their own circumstances and deeply unsettled by the economy. . . .

Andrew Kohut 10/15
But What Do the Polls Show?
... Those who can back up their assertions by pointing to poll results find the going easier than leaders who cannot. In turn, news organizations cover policy initiatives differently when programs appear to have popular support compared with when they do not. As a result, the public has become a more important player in national affairs over the past three decades. . . .

Christian Science Monitor 10/14
Americans want healthcare reform at no cost to them
Democrats in Washington are navigating treacherous electoral terrain as they craft healthcare reform legislation, judging by new polls that show Americans pulled by conflicting desires on healthcare. They are eager for change but hesitant about paying for it. . . .

Gallup 10/12
Obama Job Approval at 56% After Nobel Win
Barack Obama appears to have gotten a slight bounce in support after he was announced as the Nobel Peace Prize winner on Friday. His 56% job approval rating for the last two Gallup Daily tracking updates is up from a term-low 50% as recently as last week, and 53% in the three days before the Nobel winner was announced. . . .

Ronald Brownstein 10/11
Paddling Alone On The Economic Rapids
... The Allstate/National Journal poll's two central findings -- of a shared conviction that average Americans can expect heightened economic instability and a bitter divergence over the proper government response -- seem a recipe for intense political conflict. One final ingredient makes the mix even more volatile: Most Americans say that the past year's tumult has diminished their confidence in government, big companies, banks, and Wall Street. . . .

Pew Research Center 10/9
Majority Continues to Support Civil Unions
A clear majority of Americans (57%) favors allowing gay and lesbian couples to enter into legal agreements with each other that would give them many of the same rights as married couples, a status commonly known as civil unions. . . .

Washington Post 10/8
Poll May Point to Democratic Worries Beyond Va.
The latest Washington Post poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race represents more than bad news for Democratic nominee R. Creigh Deeds. The findings paint a portrait of the electorate that, if replicated elsewhere, stands as a warning sign for President Obama and Democrats who will be running in next year's midterm elections. . . .

Brookings Institution / WorldPublicOpinion.org (pdf) 10/8
Health Care Reform: Battleground or Common Ground?
... Much polling has been conducted in recent months as the health care debate has heated up. However, a large portion of it has focused on the political dynamics. Support for reform has eroded. Views of the administration have cooled, but views of the Republicans are worse. It is not clear whether these tepid responses are to the actual content of reforms proposed or if they are a reaction to the highly partisan character of the debate. . . .

Pew Research Center 10/8
Mixed Views of Economic Policies, Health Care Reform
... On the economy, most Americans remain optimistic that Barack Obama's policies will help, but the public expresses mixed views of the steps he has taken so far and sees no clear signs of recovery at this point. Regarding health care reform, many of the key provisions remain popular though support for the overall package has slipped. . . .

Mark Mellman 10/7
The Jews and the Democrats
... Only three demographic groups gave margins of 50 points or more to John Kerry: African-Americans, gays and Jews. Three groups also gave margins of 50 points or better to Barack Obama: blacks, Jews and those who identify with no religion. . . .

Gallup 10/6
Approval of Congress Falls to 21%
Americans' approval of the job Congress is doing is at 21% this month, down significantly from last month's 31% and from the recent high of 39% in March. ... The current drop in overall job approval to 21% particularly reflects a substantial drop in approval among Democrats, whose 36% rating this month is 18 points lower than last month's 54%, and the lowest since January of this year. . . .

New America Media 10/6
Americans Largely Unaware of Stimulus Opportunities
Americans' opinions about the federal government's $787 billion stimulus package and its impact on the mired economy vary sharply among racial and ethnic groups, according to a survey released today, with ethnic Americans more likely than whites to say it is a "good thing." . . .

ABC News 10/6
The War in Afghanistan: Reassessment, Eight Years On
Significant public compunctions mark the eighth anniversary of the war in Afghanistan – more a gradual shift in Americans' attitudes than a sudden change, but a reassessment nonetheless, one that in many ways reflects the administration's own. . . .

Pew Research Center 10/6
Most Would Use Force to Stop Iranian Nukes
The public approves of direct negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, although most Americans are not hopeful the talks will succeed. And a strong majority – 61% – says that it is more important to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if it means taking military action. . . .

Gallup 10/5
Opposition to Healthcare Legislation Drops Modestly
Americans' views on healthcare legislation have shifted modestly over the past three weeks, with a slight plurality (40%) now supporting the passage of a new healthcare bill, and with fewer (36%) saying they oppose a new bill. . . .

Catholics for Choice (pdf) 10/5
National Opinion Survey of Catholic Voters
The fall 2009 Catholics for Choice/Belden Russonello & Stewart survey shows health care reform is among the top issues for Catholic voters. Catholic voters prove to be more progressive than U.S. Catholic Bishops, and to some extent, President Obama, when considering reforms to health care. . . .

Ronald Brownstein 10/3
A Fleeting GOP Boost In 2010
From all indications, the face of the electorate will look very different in 2010 from the way it did in 2008. That prospect presents an immediate danger for Democrats. But it also represents a more subtle, long-term threat for Republicans. . . .

New York Times 10/3
Polling Firm's Reprimand Rattles News Media
For Strategic Vision L.L.C., as for many polling companies, it was a regular practice: for five years the company sent out the results of its surveys on leading political races around the country, and they made their way into blog posts, articles and national television coverage. . . .

Economic Policy Institute (pdf) 10/3
Economic Policy Institute
In a recession often described as deep and severe, we now have one more adjective to add: personal. ... Because the pain of this recession is striking so close to home, Americans strongly support continuing government action to address unemployment. . . .

Harvard School of Public Health 10/2
40% "Absolutely Certain" They Will Get H1N1 Vaccine
In a new survey, Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) researchers found that just 40% of adults are "absolutely certain" they will get the H1N1 vaccine for themselves, and 51% of parents are "absolutely certain" that they will get the vaccine for their children. . . .

ABC News 10/2
Beyond Unemployment, the Damage Resonates
The employment numbers released today underscore what an ugly time it is for the American workforce – a reality that, as our polling shows, resonates beyond the economy to the health care debate, politics and public health alike. . . .

Gallup 10/1
More Independents Lean GOP; Gap Smallest Since '05
In the third quarter of this year, 48% of Americans identified politically as Democrats or said they were independent but leaned to the Democratic Party. At the same time, 42% identified as Republicans or as independents who leaned Republican. . . .

Alan Abramowitz 10/1
Ideology in the American Public
... There is no question that Barack Obama's victory in the 2008 presidential election and the Democratic gains in the 2006 and 2008 congressional elections dramatically changed the ideological make-up of America's political leadership. ... But did this leftward shift among our nation's political elite reflect a similar leftward shift among the American public? . . .

ABC News 10/1
Abortion Support: A Trend Away?
The Pew Research Center's out today with poll results indicating a decline in support for legal abortion this year. Consistency may be the hobgoblin of little minds, as Emerson said, but I'd still like to see more of it behind this argument. . . .

Pew Research Center 10/1
Support For Abortion Slips
... In Pew Research Center polls in 2007 and 2008, supporters of legal abortion clearly outnumbered opponents; now Americans are evenly divided on the question, and there have been modest increases in the numbers who favor reducing abortions or making them harder to obtain. . . .

[ See earlier items ]

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