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Washington Post 6/28
Most Americans Want Sotomayor on Court
A sizable majority of Americans want the Senate to confirm Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor, and most call her "about right" ideologically, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

Democracy Corps 6/25
Creating a Sustainable Majority for Health Care Reform
Over the last month, Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner have conducted two national surveys and six focus groups exploring the dynamics of the battle over health care reform. The results show that the country wants reform but is largely uncommitted on the plans being developed in Washington. . . .

Washington Post 6/25
Gallup Poll Chairman 'Could Smell Out a Bad Question'
Alec Gallup, 81, who served as chairman of his family's business, the Gallup Poll, which was started by his father and is considered among the most-trusted political polls in the United States, died of a heart ailment June 22 at his home in Princeton, N.J. . . .

Washington Post 6/25
Limits on Emissions Have Wide Support
Three-quarters of Americans think the federal government should regulate the release into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases from power plants, cars and factories to reduce global warming, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, with substantial majority support from Democrats, Republicans and independents. . . .

ABC News 6/24
Mark Sanford and the Affairs of State
Mark Sanford's behavior is, shall we say, not helpful politically -- particularly in the base. ... A far higher share of Republicans, 62 percent, said they'd be less likely to vote for a candidate who'd had an affair. That dropped to 37 percent of independents and 25 percent of Democrats. . . .

Washington Post 6/24
Most Want Health Reform But Fear Its Side Effects
A majority of Americans see government action as critical to controlling runaway health-care costs, but there is broad public anxiety about the potential impact of reform legislation and conflicting views about the types of fixes being proposed on Capitol Hill, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

Washington Post 6/23
Americans Less Upbeat About Stimulus Bill's Impact
Expectations for President Obama's stimulus package have diminished, with barely half of Americans now confident the $787 billion measure will boost the economy, and the rapid rise in optimism that followed the 2008 election has abated, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

Resurgent Republic (pdf) 6/23
Vulnerabilities in Democratic Health Care Proposals
Voters overwhelmingly agree that reforming health care is important but are concerned about Democratic proposals that increase federal debt, add new taxes and push those with private insurance to a public plan. The findings, according to a newly released Resurgent Republic survey, find Democrats on one side of the issue with Independents and Republicans on the other. . . .

New York Times 6/21
Wide Support for Government-Run Health
Americans overwhelmingly support substantial changes to the health care system and are strongly behind one of the most contentious proposals Congress is considering, a government-run insurance plan to compete with private insurers, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. . . .

Los Angeles Times 6/21
Villaraigosa's future, once bright, looks dimmer now
Days from the start of his second term, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has earned tepid job approval ratings from city voters, and a plurality opposes his entrance into the upcoming race for governor, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll. . . .

Pew Research Center 6/19
Public More Optimistic About the Economy
The public is increasingly optimistic that the nation's economy will improve in the next year, while a growing number also expect their personal finances to get better. But this has not caused people to open their wallets. . . .

Los Angeles Times 6/19
Los Angeles: Big racial, ethnic divide on gay marriage
In the state's continuing political battles over gay marriage, both sides are targeting Latino voters, and a new Los Angeles Times poll illustrates why. . . .

Larry J. Sabato 6/18
Off-Year Elections
Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
... Six months after a president is chosen, the political community has the shakes, and begs for votes, real votes, any votes. And that is why New Jersey's and Virginia's contests for governor always assume a larger role than their actual importance merits. . . .

New York Times 6/18
Obama Is Seen as Ineffective on the Economy
A substantial majority of Americans say President Obama has not developed a strategy to deal with the budget deficit, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, which also found that support for his plans to overhaul health care, rescue the auto industry and close the prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, falls well below his job approval ratings. . . .

MSNBC 6/18
Public increasingly concerned about deficit
As the young Obama administration spends trillions of dollars in its effort to turn around the nation’s economy and revive the U.S. auto industry, the American public is growing concerned about the size of the budget deficit and the government’s intervention into the private sector, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds. . . ..

Gallup 6/17
Americans Trust Physicians Over Politicians
Nearly three-quarters of Americans (73%) say they are confident in doctors to recommend the right thing for reforming the U.S. healthcare system. That is significantly higher than the public confidence extended to President Barack Obama, as well as to six other entities that will be weighing in during the emerging healthcare reform debate. . . .

EBRI (pdf) 6/15
Health Confidence Survey
Even before details have been released regarding health insurance market reform, the availability of a public plan option, mandates on employers and individuals, subsidized coverage for the low-income population, changes to the tax treatment of job-based health benefits, and regulatory oversight of health care, public support is starting to emerge. . . .

Stanley B. Greenberg 6/15
Health Care Reform: Repeat the Question
Nothing brings on a headache quite like health care reform. My head has throbbed lately, as Congress has begun to consider a serious overhaul -- a debate that forces me to recall the painful last time we embarked on a similar effort some 16 years ago. . . .

ABC News 6/15
Iran's Election: The Odds of Fraud
An outfit called Terror Free Tomorrow claims in an op-ed in today's Washington Post that the contested Iranian elections likely were not fraudulent, since a pre-election poll it sponsored showed the declared winner, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, with a big lead. TFT's own data, though, tell a different story – as, oddly, did its own previous polling analysis. . . .

Dan Balz 6/14
For Republicans, the Forces Aren't With Them
... For the past few months, political analysts and demographers have been poring over the results of the 2008 election and comparing them with presidential results from the past two decades. From whatever angle of their approach -- age, race, economic status, geography -- they have come to a remarkably similar conclusion. Almost all indicators are pressing the Republicans into minority status. . . .

Mike Murphy 6/14
The Ice Age Cometh
Despairing Republican friends have been asking me what I think we should do to rebuild the GOP and begin our certain and inevitable comeback. My answer disappoints them: "Build an ark." . . .

David Hill 6/10
Long-term campaign planning
How far can campaigns plan in advance these days? It seems like the planning horizon is getting shorter each election cycle. And it's going to change how we poll. . . .

USA Today 6/10
Most don't know who speaks for GOP
Republicans, out of power and divided over how to get it back, are finding even the most basic questions hard to answer. Here's one: Who speaks for the GOP? The question flummoxes most Americans, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, which is among the reasons for the party's sagging state and uncertain direction. . . .

New York Times 6/9
Poll Finds Lukewarm Support for Mayor Bloomberg
Despite generally broad approval for the job Michael R. Bloomberg has done as mayor, a majority of New Yorkers say that he does not deserve another term in office and that they would like to give someone else a chance, according to a poll conducted by The New York Times, Cornell University and NY1 News. . . .

Political Science Quarterly: Gary C. Jacobson 6/8
The 2008 Elections
The 2008 election extended the national trend that had given control of Congress to the Democrats in the 2006 midterm two years earlier. The election was again essentially a referendum on the George W. Bush administration, but this time the referendum also encompassed a presidential election. . . .

William Galston 6/5
Why Won't Obama Tell Us About Cost of Health Care?
As health care reform enters the phase of serious legislation, it becomes vital to understand what the American people expect and believe ... and how the forthcoming debate is likely to affect their views. . . .

Gallup 6/5
Conservatives in Favor of Openly Gay Service Members
Americans are six percentage points more likely than they were four years ago to favor allowing openly gay men and lesbian women to serve in the military, 69% to 63%. While liberals and Democrats remain the most supportive, the biggest increase in support has been among conservatives and weekly churchgoers -- up 12 and 11 percentage points, respectively. . . .

ABC News 6/5
Affirmative Action: Words Matter
Do you generally favor or oppose affirmative action programs for racial and ethnic minorities? Let me put that another way . . . .

Democracy Corps 6/4
Debates in Washington Threaten to Further Isolate GOP
... [T]wo of the most high-profile debates in Washington could damage the GOP further by isolating the party from the vast middle of the electorate as Obama's nomination of Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court receives better than two-to-one backing, even after the initial onslaught of Republican attacks against the nominee, and former Vice President Dick Cheney’s popularity falls to an all-time low. . . .

WorldPublicOpinion.org 6/3
Egyptian Public to Greet Obama With Suspicion
A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll finds Egyptians continue to view US foreign policy quite negatively and see President Obama as closely aligned with it. At the same time, Obama has much better ratings than Bush had, and there are signs of thawing feelings toward the US. . . .

America's Voice / Pete Brodnitz (pdf) 6/3
Recent Polling on Immigration Reform
While comprehensive immigration reform has some vocal opponents, in our recent national poll, we found that the vast majority of voters (two thirds or more depending on the details) favor comprehensive immigration reform, a position that has not wavered in the face of an economic downturn. . . ..

Gallup 6/2
Service Employees Rate Obama Highest
President Barack Obama's job approval rating averaged 65% in Gallup Poll Daily tracking in May . . . . On the high end, 71% of service workers, such as police officers, waiters and waitresses, barbers, and nurses' aides, approved in May of how Obama handled his job. . . .

ABC News 6/2
What We Don't Know About China
What's most interesting about public opinion in China, 20 years after Tiananmen Square, is what’s not asked there. Think about, say, confidence in the national government, elections, the military and the judicial system; views of national leaders; or satisfaction with personal freedom of speech, assembly and religion – in short, the stock in trade of many public opinion surveys. . . .

Change to Win / Lake Research (pdf) 6/1
The Working American Dream Agenda
... Working Americans firmly reject the ideological frame that government should get out of the way. They want government to be a partner and invest in good jobs, health care, and educational opportunity. . . .

Hoover Institution: Education Next 6/1
Educating the Public
Most people express strong opinions about public education. But only a few know the basic facts about the public schools: how much they spend, how well teachers are paid, and what schools can and cannot do. What happens when the public learns the facts about schools and deliberates responsibly about public education? . . .

Gallup 6/1
GOP Base Heavily White, Conservative, Religious
More than 6 in 10 Republicans today are white conservatives, while most of the rest are whites with other ideological leanings; only 11% of Republicans are Hispanics, or are blacks or members of other races. . . .

Drew Westen 6/1
Obama Should Welcome a Discussion of Social Issues
... On every issue we have studied, from abortion to immigration, a well-refined progressive narrative, designed to speak to the hearts and minds of the American people in their language, not the language of activists and advocates, can beat the strongest of conservative messages nationally by 15-20 points. . . .

Washington Post 6/1
The Next Frontier: Decoding the Internet's Raw Data
There's no shortage of uses for the massive amounts of data in every nook and cranny of the Internet. ... The problem is figuring out how to organize and display the data in a useful and informative way, instead of forcing people to sift through heaps of mind-numbing spreadsheets. . . .

New York Times 5/31
Clive Granger, Economist, Dies at 74
Clive W. J. Granger, an economist and Nobel laureate whose work revolutionized the way stocks and other fluctuating series of data are analyzed and forecast, died on May 27. ... [I]t was an early revelation about time series data -- sets of data that are collected over time, like daily stock prices, interest rates and consumer spending habits -- that earned him his greatest honor. . . .

Gallup 5/29
Obama Approval Compares Favorably to Predecessors
So far in May, Barack Obama has averaged 65% job approval. Since World War II, only three of the previous eight presidents elected to their first terms -- Dwight Eisenhower, John Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan -- have had a higher average approval rating in May of their first year. . . .

Sacramento Bee 5/28
Anti-Prop. 8 forces should wait, pollsters say
With the ink barely dry on the California Supreme Court's decision upholding a ban on same-sex marriages, proponents are already preparing new political and legal efforts to overturn the ban. But at least some pollsters and legal experts think those efforts may be too soon to have a good chance to succeed. . . .

Gallup 5/28
Positive Initial Reaction to Sotomayor Nomination
Americans' first reactions to the news of President Obama's nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court are decidedly more positive than negative, with 47% rating the nomination as "excellent" or "good," 20% rating it "only fair," and 13% rating it "poor." . . .

Moore Information 5/28
Checks and Balances are Still Important
Our recent nationwide voter survey reveals Republicans continue to trail Democrats in the traditional congressional generic ballot measurement, but that Democrat edge does not trump voters' fundamental desire for partisan checks and balances in our government. . . .

Rhodes Cook 5/28
For GOP's Sake, Texas Better Not Secede
Of all the jaw-dropping comments made by politicians this year, the one that takes top prize was not uttered in the nation's capital but deep in the heart of Texas. There, in conjunction with a tax day "tea party," Republican Gov. Rick Perry floated the idea of his huge state along the Mexican border seceding from the Union. ... As a political matter, it would be about the worst thing that could possibly happen to Perry's Republican Party at a time that it holds neither end of Pennsylvania Avenue and is a receding force in many states. . . .

David Hill 5/27
GOP reform would net independents
... [I]ndependents have assumed what Pew calls "center stage" in the American political drama. If Republicans are game, almost four in 10 voters are waiting for the spotlight, begging for the affections of the two parties. . . .

ABC News 5/26
Supreme Court Pick: The Public Perspective
While we can count on interest groups across the political spectrum to swarm all over President Obama’s Supreme Court pick, Americans themselves have very little in the way of demands: a smart judge, and not too ideological, if you please. . . .

Mark Baldassare 5/26
Next steps for California
As the governor and Legislature chart the course for California's fiscal future, the state's elected officials are saying they got the message and will follow the will of the people as they balance the budget. What they are overlooking in the aftermath of the overwhelming defeat of their ballot measures is that the special-election results have little to say about the tax-and-spending preferences of Californians today. . . .

Gallup 5/25
Military Veterans Tend to Be More Republican
Veterans are more likely to be Republican than are those of comparable ages who are not veterans. This Republican skew is at least minimally evident across all age groups, ranging from a 15-point difference in the percentage Republican between veterans and nonveterans in the 25-29 age group, to a 2-point difference in the 85+ group. . . .

New York Times 5/21
Tracking Public Opinion on Abortion: It's Tricky
Every now and then a single polling result on a particular issue is broadly seized upon by the media and pundits, as well as by proponents and opponents alike on the issue – either to advance an agenda or to reveal flaws in the poll. Sometimes both motives operate in tandem. . . .

Pew Research Center 5/21
Independents Take Center Stage in Obama Era
Centrism has emerged as a dominant factor in public opinion as the Obama era begins. The political values and core attitudes that the Pew Research Center has monitored since 1987 show little overall ideological movement. . . .

Democracy Corps 5/19
Obama Closes the Democrats' National Security Gap
A new Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey shows that after 100 days in office, President Barack Obama has, at least for now, effectively erased doubts that Americans have historically harbored about the Democratic Party's vision and competence on national security. . . .

Kaiser Family Foundation 5/19
The Experts vs. The Public on Health Reform
In repeated Kaiser polls, we see a divide between what experts believe and what the public believes about some of the key issues in health reform. They don't disagree on everything; far from it. But there is a wide gulf on basic beliefs about what is behind the problems in the health care system and key elements of reform, especially delivery reform. . . .

CBS News 5/19
Pessimism Over Children's Prospects
The current economic recession has led parents to harbor strong doubts about the next generation's quality of life in the future, a new CBS News poll reveals. . . .

Gallup 5/18
GOP Losses Span Nearly All Demographic Groups
The decline in Republican Party affiliation among Americans in recent years is well documented, but a Gallup analysis now shows that this movement away from the GOP has occurred among nearly every major demographic subgroup. . . .

ABC News 5/18
Public Opinion on Abortion: No Easy Answer
Just on cue with President Obama's visit to Notre Dame yesterday, public opinion on abortion is looking even more conflicted than usual. As the president himself suggested, it's a highly fraught subject - and one of those on which a single polling number does not begin to describe the complexity of Americans' attitudes. . . .

NPR 5/18
Take Our Survey: Are There Too Many Surveys?
Thanks for reading this article on the outrageous proliferation of surveys in contemporary America. ... To help us sort through the surge of surveys, please take just a few minutes to complete the following survey. . . .

Gallup 5/18
Americans Consider Crossing Borders for Medical Care
... A recent Gallup Poll finds that up to 29% of Americans would consider traveling abroad for medical procedures such as heart bypass surgery, hip or knee replacement, plastic surgery, cancer diagnosis and treatment, or alternative medical care, even though all are routinely done in the United States. . . .

Resurgent Republic 5/16
Public, Political Left At Odds Over Interrogation
On May 11-14, 2009, Resurgent Republic conducted an extensive survey of registered voters regarding the current debate over harsh interrogations of high-value al-Qaeda detainees. ... American voters believe "harsh interrogation of detainees" was justified by a 19-point margin, 53 to 34 percent. . . .

Gallup 5/11
Obama Approval Picks Up in May
President Barack Obama appears to be slightly more popular with Americans at the start of his second 100 days in office than he was, on average, during his first 100. . . .

Los Angeles Times 5/11
CA: Naturalized citizens to reshape political landscape
More than 1 million immigrants became U.S. citizens last year, the largest surge in history, hastening the ethnic transformation of California's political landscape with more Latinos and Asians now eligible to vote. . . .

Gallup 5/6
Republicans Face Steep Uphill Climb Among Women
Among women, Democrats maintain a solid double-digit advantage in party identification over Republicans, 41% to 27%. In contrast, men are equally divided in their party loyalty between Republicans (28%) and Democrats (30%), and are currently most likely to say they are politically independent (40%). . . .

Alan Abramowitz 5/1
The Obama Generation
... In this article I present evidence from the 2008 American National Election Study that support for Barack Obama by younger Americans was not based primarily on Mr. Obama's personality, style or celebrity status. To a greater extent than among older voters, support for Obama among voters under the age of 30 was based on issues and ideology. . . .

Pew Research Center 4/30
Dissecting the 2008 Electorate
The electorate in last year's presidential election was the most racially and ethnically diverse in U.S. history, with nearly one-in-four votes cast by non-whites, according to a new analysis of Census Bureau data by the Pew Research Center. . . .

Resurgent Republic 4/29
Independents Side with Republicans on Obama Budget
This first Resurgent Republic survey ... shows that President Obama remains quite popular, with 61% approving of his job performance and 32% disapproving so far. ... This survey verifies that America remains a center-right country. . . .

Democracy Corps (pdf) 4/29
Americans See a Lot to Appreciate in First 100 Days
We are not going to try to compete with the superlatives about President Obama's first 100 days. Instead, we simply want to underscore the nuanced but interesting picture people have of his leadership, direction and progress in key areas, as well as concerns about the spending deficits necessary to address the current crisis. . . .

Gallup 4/29
At 100 Days, Obama Approval Broad as Well as Deep
... The new president's approval rating at the 100-day mark is notable in that nearly all major demographic categories of Americans are pleased with his job performance, as evidenced by approval ratings above the majority level. . . .

Mark Mellman 4/29
Wide support for EFCA's principles
Because few issues have generated quite as much controversy in the halls of Congress as the Employee Free Choice Act, you could be forgiven for assuming EFCA is extremely controversial with the public. It's not. While EFCA has captured the attention of relatively few Americans, its principles are widely supported. . . .

Ipsos 4/29
Obama: Overwhelming support from Hispanics
President Barack Obama hits the highly anticipated 100-day milestone of his presidency with overwhelming support from the U.S. Hispanic population. . . .

Democracy Corps 4/28
New Surveys Show Republicans in Disarray
In announcing his intention to leave the Republican Party, Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter said, "Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. ... I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans." Two new surveys from Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner show that this sentiment is shared by a sizeable majority of voters as well. . . .

Democracy Corps 4/27
Congressional Battleground a Surprise at 100 Days
A new survey by Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research in the 40 most marginal Democratic seats shows Democratic incumbents holding strong in the territory where nearly all expect Republicans to reclaim lost ground. . . .

Gallup 4/27
Slim Majority Wants Interrogations Investigated
A new Gallup Poll finds 51% of Americans in favor and 42% opposed to an investigation into the use of harsh interrogation techniques on terrorism suspects during the Bush administration. . . .

ABC News 4/27
Broad Backing for Cuba Relations
President Obama’s overtures to Cuba are one of the ways he’s hit the zeitgeist in his first 100 days: Six in 10 Americans approve of the way he’s handling U.S. relations with the island nation, and most favor far more dramatic moves. . . .

Star Tribune 4/26
Minnesota Poll: Most want Coleman to call it quits
Nearly two-thirds of Minnesotans surveyed think Norm Coleman should concede the U.S. Senate race to Al Franken, but just as many believe the voting system that gave the state its longest running election contest needs improvement. . . .

Washington Post 4/26
Obama Off to Solid Start, Poll Finds
Barack Obama's performance in the first 100 days of his presidency draws strong public approval in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, but there is decidedly less support for his recent decision to release previously secret government memos on the interrogation of terrorism suspects, an initiative that reveals deep partisan fissures. . . .

FOX News 4/24
Obama's First 100 Days
As Barack Obama closes in on his first 100 days as president, majorities of Americans approve of the job he is doing, are satisfied with what he has accomplished so far and think he is keeping his promises, according to a FOX News poll released Friday. . . .

National Journal: Ron Brownstein 4/24
Obama and the Swells
As President Obama approaches the 100-day mark, one of his principal political assets is the breadth of his public approval. One of his principal challenges may be extending that personal support to his agenda. . . .

Pew 4/23
Obama at 100 Days
As he approaches the 100-day mark of his presidency, Barack Obama's job approval ratings are higher than those of his most recent predecessors. However, the 44th president is even more distinguished by his strong personal popularity. . . .

ABC News 4/23
Obama, Cheney and the Politics of Torture
Dick Cheney's pushback on torture this week is well-calibrated: It's an issue on which public sentiment is somewhat more equivocal than President Obama's own view. While most people oppose torture, that view is short of monolithic -- and opposition softens if it's presumed actually to work, as the former vice president argues. . . .

Kaiser Family Foundation (pdf) 4/23
Many Americans Still Delaying Health Care
As the economy continues to falter, a majority of Americans continue to say they or someone in their household have taken steps to put off health care for cost reasons over the course of the last year. . . .

NPR 4/22
Public Questions Digital Fix For Health Care
There's a big disconnect between American opinions about fixing the health care system and the view of experts and politicians, according to a new poll by NPR, the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Harvard School of Public Health. . . .

Gallup 4/22
Opinions About Global Warming Vary Worldwide
Gallup Polls conducted in 127 countries in 2007 and 2008 reveal that more than a third of the world's population has never heard of global warming. . . .

New York Times: Andrew Kohut 4/22
Will Obama Ride Reagan's Ratings Roller Coaster?
... A close look at Gallup's polling of reactions to Reagan's first few months in office provides striking parallels with what Pew Research Center polls now find about opinions of Mr. Obama. And a consideration of the Reagan experience may well give some clues as to what lies ahead for the 44th president. . . .

ABC News 4/21
Behind the Plus or Minus
A bunch of respectable news outlets yesterday published reports on an academic survey claiming to measure "video-game addiction" among youngsters. "This study’s primary strength," the author reported, "is that it is nationally representative within 3%." I beg to differ. . . .

Los Angeles Times 4/21
Measuring Obama by FDR's yardstick
If it seems arbitrary -- even unfair -- to take the measure of a new president after just 100 days in office, you can blame Franklin D. Roosevelt. . . .

New York Times 4/20
Cuban-Americans Favor Obama's Shift in Policy
President Obama has drawn fire from some Republicans for his just-completed trip to Latin America, but his administration's outreach to Cuba may have impressed one politically important group back home: Cuban-Americans. . . .

Calbuzz 4/20
Five Questions with Merv Field
Mervin Field is the pioneering founder of the Field Poll, an independent, nonpartisan, public opinion survey that has tracked every state election in California since 1948. The man insiders call "The Swami" kindly took time to answer some Calbuzz questions. . . ..

Gallup 4/20
Americans Increasingly Concerned About Retirement
For the first time this decade, a majority of non-retired Americans, 52%, doubt they will have enough money to live comfortably once they retire; only 41% say they will. In 2002, by contrast, 59% of non-retirees were confident that they would have enough retirement income to live comfortably. . . .

Salon 4/20
Will gay marriage still work as a GOP wedge issue?
... As both a policy issue and a political hot potato, gay marriage is back in the news. Can opposition to gay marriage still help the Republicans on Election Day, or have we reached a tipping point? . . .

The Star-Ledger 4/19
Jersey pollster was unconventional choice for Obama
The mission was to find the best, it didn't matter where. ... Bearded, brash, impossible to ignore, eager to argue, quick with a four-letter word, [Joel] Benenson was anything but the conventional choice. . . .

Gallup 4/17
Obama Averages 63% Approval in His First Quarter
Barack Obama's first quarter in office concludes on Sunday, and during this early stage of his presidency he has averaged a solid 63% job approval, reaching as high as 69% in the initial days of his presidency and falling as low as 59% on a few occasions. . . .

UVA: Alan Abramowitz 4/16
Independent Voters and the President
The importance of partisanship in contemporary American politics is widely recognized. ... However, the assumption that independents are non-aligned -- that they are free thinkers who have no predisposition to support one party or the other -- is inaccurate and misleading. . . .

UVA: Rhodes Cook 4/16
Obama and the Redefinition of Presidential Coattails
Barack Obama showed considerable vote-getting ability in last fall's presidential election, with a clear-cut win in both popular and electoral votes. But when it came to presidential coattails, his were of the same modest length of many of his immediate predecessors. . . .

Pew Internet & American Life Project 4/16
The Internet's Role in Campaign 2008
Some 74% of internet users -- representing 55% of the entire adult population -- went online in 2008 to get involved in the political process or to get news and information about the election. . . .

WorldPublicOpinion.org 4/15
Americans Favor New Approach to Cuba
A majority of Americans feel that it is time to try a new approach to Cuba, according to a national poll by WorldPublicOpinion.org. More specifically, the public favors lifting the ban on travel to Cuba for Americans and re-establishing diplomatic relations as well as other changes. . . .

ABC News 4/15
Of Taxes and Tea
Today's "taxpayer tea parties" may reinforce a sense of purpose among conservative activists -- but at the moment they’re unlikely to resonate beyond. Recent polling shows little in the way of broad concern about taxes in general or Barack Obama's approach to them. . . .

ABC News 4/14
Obama, the Economy . . . and Thin Ice
President Obama may be encouraged enough by some rising measures of consumer confidence to celebrate those improvements in his economic speech today. It's a place where he'd best tread lightly. . . .

Washington Post 4/11
Changing Red-Blue Divisions Difficult for Obama
President Obama has already made a down payment on many of his campaign promises . But a noisy and partisan debate has erupted over whether he has even begun to make good on his pledge to turn the page on the divisive politics of the past. . . .

National Journal: Charlie Cook 4/11
Who'll Play Defense?
... Midterm elections are usually a referendum on the president and his party. And right now, President Obama is certainly no liability. . . .

UVA: Alan Abramowitz 4/9
The Transformation of the American Electorate
The election of America's first black president has been widely hailed as an historic event. However, much less attention has been paid to the demographic trends which made that event possible and which will continue to affect elections and politics in the United States far into the future. . . .

UVA: Rhodes Cook 4/9
The GOP in New York: Going the Way of the Dinosaurs?
... A half century or so ago, when Nelson Rockefeller was in his heyday, New York Republicans battled with their Democratic counterparts on even terms. But nowadays, even a sense of competitiveness is a distant memory. . . .

The Democratic Strategist: Andrew Levison (pdf) 4/9
Strategy Memo: American Political Ideology
The new report from the Center for American Progress, The State of American Political Ideology 2009, provides a more finely crafted overall picture of the current balance between support for conservative and liberal-progressive principles in the American electorate than any recent study. As a result, it establishes a vital starting point for the development of progressive and Democratic strategy. . . .

National Journal: Charlie Cook 4/8
Watch the Independents
It's hard to write a column about politics these days without coming back to the issue of partisanship. It must be one of the most recurrent themes, if not the most, in American politics today. . . .

Gallup 4/8
Satisfaction Ratings Continue Slow, Steady Climb
Americans' reported satisfaction with the way things are going in the country remains decidedly negative, but has slowly and steadily improved in recent weeks. . . .

The Hill: Mark Mellman 4/8
When polls go wrong
Last week, my friend and distinguished sparring partner in these pages, David Hill, commented on the American Association of Public Opinion Research's (AAPOR) report on what went wrong with the polling in New Hampshire’s presidential primary. This compendium of potential polling problems is so important that I am going to add my perspective as well. . . .

The Hill: David Hill 4/8
Crafting ID between the commas
It's a crucial time for molding images of emerging candidacies. The most important task for first-time candidates is to control what I call their "between-the-commas" identification, those magic few words that follow their name, telling voters who they are, as in, "Today on the state capitol steps John Doe, 45, a businessman from Boise, announced his intent to run for governor."

Gallup 4/7
Obama Approval Rating Stable, Polarized
... Still enjoying a honeymoon period, Obama's approval rating has fallen only slightly from its 67% starting point even as he has outlined an ambitious agenda that has been controversial to some with regard to the costs to taxpayers and the proposed expansion of the federal government's role in the economy. . . .

New York Times 4/7
'Survey' Calls Attack Bloomberg Rival
... As his campaign sought to overpower any candidate considering challenging him, Mr. Bloomberg commissioned a telephone poll last month that spread derogatory information about Representative Anthony D. Weiner, one of the mayor's possible rivals in the race. . . .

ABC News 4/7
Obama in Iraq
In his visit today to Iraq President Obama will find a place where conditions have improved dramatically and public attitudes have followed, per our ABC/BBC/NHK poll there -- but where the United States gets little credit, and relatively few expect Obama to make much difference. . . .

New York Times 4/7
New Optimism on Economy Since Inauguration
Americans have grown more optimistic about the economy and the direction of the country in the 11 weeks since President Obama was inaugurated, suggesting that he is enjoying some success in his critical task of rebuilding the nation’s confidence, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. . . .

Gallup 4/6
Newer Threats On Par With Ongoing Conflicts
In a sign of the times, Americans are now about as concerned about Iran's and North Korea's nuclear capabilities and drug violence in Mexico as they are about the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, and international terrorism in general. . . .

Washington Post 4/6
Most Back Outreach to Muslims
Most Americans think President Obama's pledge to "seek a new way forward" with the Muslim world is an important goal, even as nearly half hold negative views about Islam and a sizable number say that even mainstream adherents to the religion encourage violence against non-Muslims, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

S.F. Chronicle 4/4
California Dems target 8 GOP districts
California GOP voter registration is "dropping like a rock," a new study shows, declining so fast that Democratic Party officials see an unprecedented opportunity to gain voters and House seats in the 2010 election. . . .

Public Agenda 4/3
Americans Support Wide Array of Energy Policies
Despite partisan debate, the American people find common ground on their support for a number of measures to address the nation's energy problems. ... But the public may not yet be prepared for the tradeoffs and challenges needed to make these proposals a reality. . . .

Washington Post 4/3
Obama Chooses Survey Expert to Run Census Bureau
President Obama has picked Robert M. Groves, a prominent survey researcher, to lead the Census Bureau, less than a year before the 2010 census begins. . . ..

UVA: Rhodes Cook 4/2
California: The Key to the Electoral Lock
California may be the Golden State, but it has been a while since people have called it that without a trace of sarcasm. With its double digit unemployment rate, difficult to balance budget, and crumbling infrastructure, California these days is anything but golden. That is, with the exception of its mother lode of electoral votes. . . .

Washington Post 4/2
Recession Taking Emotional Toll
Consumers are keeping their wallets in their pockets and feeling increasingly anxious because of the recession, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Many report putting off big-ticket spending that could benefit the hard-hit automotive and travel industries, while also cutting out everyday indulgences such as dining out. . . .

Democracy Corps 4/1
Voters Back Obama's Priorities, Agenda on Budget
A new survey by Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, completed on the eve on Congress' pending vote on President Obama's budget, shows increasing optimism among the electorate, sustained popularity for the president, and broad support for his priorities and approach to the budget, particularly when framed as a part of a long-term economic program. . . .

The Hill: Mark Mellman 4/1
A GOP leadership this Dem likes
... [W]hatever the outcome of the special election, the GOP continues to be a rolling train wreck that has been decimated in two successive election cycles and whose geographic and ideological isolation has given rise to a leadership seemingly intent on destroying what is left of its once-grand party. . . .

The Hill: David Hill 4/1
Robo-polls officially endorsed
The ecumenical product of a committee that included academics as well as public and private pollsters, this study is the best systematic analysis of what works and what doesn't for pollsters since Irving Crespi's useful but now almost-forgotten 1988 book for the Russell Sage Foundation, Pre-Election Polling: Sources of Accuracy and Error. . . .

Washington Post 3/31
Blame for Downturn Not Fixed on Obama
The number of Americans who believe that the nation is headed in the right direction has roughly tripled since Barack Obama's election, and the public overwhelmingly blames the excesses of the financial industry, rather than the new president, for turmoil in the economy, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

ABC News 3/31
Michelle Obama: Bragging Rights
There's some pretty good news for Barack Obama in our latest ABC/Post poll out this morning – a 66% job approval rating and advances in views of the nation's direction. But he might not brag on it at the dinner table: There are even better results for his wife. . . .

WorldPublicOpinion.org 3/31
Global Poll: Economic System Needs 'Major Changes'
Major reform of the international economic system is needed in order to solve the current crisis, according to a new global poll of over 29,000 people carried out for BBC World Service. . . .

AAPOR (pdf) 3/30
Investigating the 2008 Presidential Primary Polls
After an extensive investigation, a committee of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) has identified several factors that contributed to inaccuracies in 2008 Presidential Primary polls, most notably the miscalling of the New Hampshire Democratic primary. . . .

Gallup 3/30
Catholics Similar to Mainstream on Abortion, Stem Cells
Despite the Roman Catholic Church's official opposition to abortion and embryonic stem-cell research, a Gallup analysis finds almost no difference between rank-and-file American Catholics and American non-Catholics in terms of finding the two issues morally acceptable. . . .

Council for Research Excellence 3/26
Video Consumer Mapping Study
A pioneering study conducted on behalf of the Nielsen-funded Council for Research Excellence (CRE) by Ball State University's Center for Media Design (CMD) and Sequent Partners dispels several popular notions about video media use, finding that younger baby boomers (age 45-54) consume the most video media while confirming that traditional "live" television remains the proverbial "800-pound gorilla" in the video media arena. . . .

Pew 3/26
Wide Gap in 'Satisfaction,' 'Right Direction' Measures
... [S]ince last fall's election, the percentage saying the country is generally headed in the right direction has consistently surpassed the percentage expressing satisfaction with national conditions. . . .

New York Times 3/26
New Political Study Center? Turn Right at Berkeley
... [T]he University of California, Berkeley, where '60s-era students stood atop a police car and ignited free-speech protests, is creating a Center for the Comparative Study of Right-Wing Movements. . . .

New York Times: Thomas Friedman 3/25
Secrets of a Pollster
Stan Greenberg, one of America's most experienced pollsters, sums up the key lesson he learned polling for Bill Clinton, Nelson Mandela, Ehud Barak and Tony Blair: "Bold leaders in tumultuous times always have at least one crash." . . .

The Hill: Mark Mellman 3/25
Hope is still alive
George W. Bush was undone in the first instance by his misguided pursuit of a war the American people came to believe was a serious mistake, while the economy delivered the fatal political blow to the former president and his party. On both major issues, changes wrought by President Obama and congressional Democrats are beginning to generate the promised hope. . . .

CBS News 3/23
Americans Want the Bonuses Back
Americans find it unacceptable for companies receiving federal bailout money to pay their employees bonuses, according to a new CBS News poll, and a majority say the government should try to recover the $165 million in bonus money recently paid to employees of insurance company AIG. . . .

Democracy Corps 3/23
Report on the Obama Generation
In a recent interview with Rachel Maddow, John McCain's daughter Meghan McCain warned her party that it was, "on the precipice of becoming irrelevant to young people." This conclusion comes in the wake of a 66 to 32 percent drubbing by young people in the 2008 elections. Our survey of young people taken three months after the election underscores the alienation of Republicans from the millennial generational. . . .

Democracy Corps 3/20
President, Democrats Strongly Preferred on Key Issues
As Washington prepares to fully engage in the debate over President Obama's budget, two new national surveys from Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner show that the president and his allies are well positioned to win the battle over his budget. . . .

Yale/George Mason (pdf) 3/19
Climate change in the American mind
In September and October of 2008 a research team from Yale and George Mason Universities conducted a nationally representative survey of 2,164 American adults. Survey participants were asked about their issue priorities for the new administration and Congress, support and opposition regarding climate change and energy policies, levels of political and consumer activism, and beliefs about the reality and risks of global warming. . . .

Pew Research Center 3/19
Most Support Health Care Overhaul
Most Americans believe that the nation's health care system is in need of substantial changes. But there is less support for completely rebuilding the health care system than there was in April 1993, during the early stage of the Clinton administration's unsuccessful effort to revamp health care. . . .

CBS News 3/18
Public Supports Aid To Homeowners
Americans are making clear distinctions between the Obama Administration's proposals to assist various sectors of the economy, according to a new CBS News poll. While a majority favors assisting struggling homeowners, most of those polled do not support additional federal assistance for U.S. automakers or for banks and financial institutions. . . .

NPR 3/17
More Voters Think U.S. Is On Right Track
A new NPR poll shows that President Obama's job approval rating is still high -- 59% -- and among likely voters surveyed, the Democratic position on issues was favored across the board. Still, there's some reason for Republicans to hope. . . .

Pew Research Center 3/16
Obama's Approval Rating Slips
President Barack Obama's approval rating has slipped, as a growing number of Americans see him listening more to his party's liberals than to its moderates and many voice opposition to some of his key economic proposals. . . .

calbuzz 3/16
Why Feinstein Won't Run for Governor of California
In 1987, then-Mayor Dianne Feinstein set off a civic soap opera in San Francisco, performing a public Hamlet act in weighing whether to seek the congressional seat made vacant by the death of U.S. Rep. Sala Burton, widow of legendary Congressman Phil Burton. . . .

Gallup 3/16
Obama's Approval Equal To or Better Than Bush's
President Barack Obama's job approval rating, at 61% in the latest three-day average of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, is slightly above where George W. Bush's and in particular Bill Clinton's were at this point in mid-March of the first years of their administrations. . . .

ABC News (pdf) 3/16
Dramatic Advances Sweep Iraq
Dramatic advances in public attitudes are sweeping Iraq, with declining violence, rising economic well-being and improved services lifting optimism, fueling confidence in public institutions and bolstering support for democracy. . . .

Pew 3/13
Stop the Presses?
As many newspapers struggle to stay economically viable, fewer than half of Americans (43%) say that losing their local newspaper would hurt civic life in their community "a lot." Even fewer (33%) say they would personally miss reading the local newspaper a lot if it were no longer available. . . .

The Atlantic: Jodie Allen & Richard Auxier 3/13
Socialism, American-Style
... Are Americans, the majority of whom still appear to support the Obama program, likely to quail at the prospect of a "Europeanization" of the land of the free that transforms it into a clone of, say, France? . . .

Pew (pdf) 3/12
Economic Mobility Project
... In the midst of an historic economic crisis, Americans insist that despite the recession it is still possible for people to improve their economic standing, and most believe that they control their economic destiny. . . .

Gallup 3/10
Stimulus Not Yet Improving Consumer Mood, Spending
Gallup's attitudinal economic measures show little if any improvement since President Obama signed historic fiscal stimulus legislation on Feb. 17. . . . .

Washington Post 3/9
15% of Americans Have No Religion
The percentage of Americans who call themselves Christians has dropped dramatically over the past two decades, and those who do are increasingly identifying themselves without traditional denomination labels, according to a major study of U.S. religion being released today. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 3/5
Confidence to the Rescue? Don't Hold Your Breath.
With unemployment soaring to 8.1 percent in today's Labor Department report, it's fair to wonder when consumer confidence finally will lead the economy to recovery. The answer: Maybe never. . . .

L.A. Times: Harold Meyerson 3/5
As the GOP stands firm, Calif. is changing direction
... Republicans may be a clear minority in this state, but their lawmakers are so safe in their arch-conservative districts that they don't need to cooperate across the aisle. Or so goes the conventional wisdom. But there's a problem with this analysis: The fault line in California politics has shifted dramatically. And the state's Republicans haven't yet noticed. . . .

Pew Research Center: Scott Keeter 3/5
New Tricks for Old -- and New -- Dogs
... Communication research is in a period of transformation. Both the phenomena we study and the tools we have to study it with are undergoing rapid change. . . ..

The Hill: Mark Mellman 3/4
Lessons of stimulus polling
Polling around the recently signed economic recovery bill affords an opportunity to tease out some lessons about public opinion: Partisanship Reigns (Or, Do Leaders Lead?) -- Regular readers will not be shocked to learn that partisanship heavily conditions voters' attitudes toward the stimulus. . . .

Washington Post 3/2
As Stocks Tumble, So Does Retirement Security
As the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues its downward spiral, there is deep public unease about fully-funded retirements as people's savings are now more tied to stock market performance than at any time in the past two decades. . . .

New York Times 3/2
Poll Finds U.S. Muslims Thriving, but Not Content
A Gallup poll of Muslims in the United States has found that they are far more likely than people in Muslim countries to see themselves as thriving. . . .

New York Times 2/28
Ailing G.O.P. Risks Losing a Generation
Republicans have their work cut out for them. Americans identifying themselves as Democrats outnumber those who say they are Republicans by 10 percentage points, the largest gap in party identification in 24 years. . . .

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 2/28
Agenda of Historically Disenfranchised Groups
Four groups played a key role in the progressive victory last November -- unmarried women, African American voters, Latinos and younger voters. These groups all increased turnout in 2008 and all increased their Democratic margin relative to the 2004 Kerry vote. . . .

Washington Post 2/26
Majority of Americans Back President on Afghanistan
About two-thirds of Americans support President Obama's decision to send approximately 17,000 additional U.S. military forces to Afghanistan, and, in stark contrast to the sour public reception of former president George W. Bush's "surge" of troops in Iraq, support for Obama's move crosses party lines, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

Kaiser Family Foundation 2/25
Strong Support for Action on Health Care Reform
As economic conditions continue to worsen, the public is increasingly worried about the affordability and availability of care, with many postponing or skipping treatments due to cost in the past year and a notable minority forced into serious financial straits due to medical bills, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation's first health care tracking poll of 2009. . . .

Democracy Corps 2/25
Obama Breaks Through Polarization
In his speech to the nation tonight, Barack Obama managed to break through the partisan polarization of Washington and connect directly with American voters across the political spectrum according to dial and focus group research conducted during the speech. . . .

CBS News 2/25
Positive Reception For Obama Address
... Eighty percent of speech watchers approve of President Obama's plans for dealing with the economic crisis. Before the speech, 63 percent approved. . . .

The Hill: David Hill 2/25
Obama's focus failure
... The tendency I see in the Obama administration is to be scattered. They are not really coalescing their policy and communications efforts around the creation of a 20-to-25 percent core of top-of-mind responses that should be in one bucket, such as "fixing the economy" or "ending the conflict in Iraq." . . .

The Hill: Mark Mellman 2/25
Republican strategy didn't work
Leaderless, rudderless, bereft of a message or ideas and in defiance of common sense, Republicans continue to march into hell for a cause that is far from heavenly, diminishing further their already sullied public image. . . .

ABC News 2/24
Strong. But Average. And Way Divided.
There are a couple of data points worth keeping in mind as we await President Obama's address to the nation tonight -- and as we digest an aide's claim today, as Jake Tapper reports, that his strong approval rating is "earned." One, while his rating is high, it's also dead average for a new president. The other is the impressive partisanship beneath it. . . .

Gallup 2/24
Obama Job Approval Dips Below 60% for First Time
For the first time since Gallup began tracking Barack Obama's presidential job approval rating on Jan. 21, fewer than 60% of Americans approve of the job he is doing as president. . . .

Washington Post 2/24
Obama Gets High Marks for 1st Month
As President Obama prepares to address a joint session of Congress tonight, he is receiving strong reviews for his first full month in office, but deep partisan fault lines are quickly reemerging. . . .

New York Times 2/24
Broad Support for President
President Obama is benefiting from remarkably high levels of optimism and confidence among Americans about his leadership, providing him with substantial political clout as he confronts the nation's economic challenges and opposition from nearly all Republicans in Congress, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. . . .

ABC News 2/23
Deficit Worries Run High
President Obama's summit today on government spending comes at a time of heightened public concern about the federal budget deficit -- especially among critics of his $787 billion economic stimulus program. ... The increase in high-level concern about the deficit has occurred entirely among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, who've tended to be more critical of the stimulus spending, as well as less inclined generally to support the new Democratic administration. . . .

Washington Post 2/23
High Public Doubt About Soc. Sec. & Medicare
Few Americans are "very confident" that Social Security and Medicare are in shape to provide benefits throughout their retirements, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, adding a lack of public trust to the problems today's White House summit must confront as it considers the country's future financial obligations. . . ..

Gallup 2/23
Obama's Job Approval at the One-Month Mark
President Barack Obama remains highly popular among the U.S. public at the end of his first month in office. However, the 63% of Americans currently approving of his job performance is down slightly from his initial 68% rating in January. ... Obama has not retained his initial level of job approval mainly because rank-and-file Republicans -- who already lagged well behind Democrats in their approval of Obama in January -- have quickly become even more critical. . . .

New America Foundation (pdf) 2/20
The Millennial Pendulum
Today's young people have considerably more progressive opinions about economic issues than do their elders. ... Observers and strategists are now asking whether we will see a lasting change in American politics as a result of the Millennials' arrival. . . .

Gallup 2/20
Despite Stimulus Bill, No Sign of Uptick in Mood
Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows no sign yet that the new $787 billion stimulus plan passed by Congress and signed into law this week by President Obama has made any change in the way Americans view the U.S. economy . . . .

Gallup 2/19
Canada Remains Americans' Most Favored Nation
Barack Obama's first foreign visit as president on Thursday will be to a country, Canada, that enjoys the highest favorable rating of 19 nations rated in Gallup's Feb. 9-12 World Affairs survey. . . .

UVA: Rhodes Cook 2/19
Not Your Father's Democratic Congress
... [L]ike Clinton, Obama begins his administration blessed with large Democratic majorities at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. ... Yet the surface equality masks a major difference between the two Democratic Congresses. . . .

The Hill: Mark Mellman 2/18
Bipartisan, post-partisan, just partisan
Bipartisanship has been used to describe so many things, it now means almost nothing. ... Partisanship remains the pre-eminent structuring principle of our politics. . . .

Democracy Corps 2/13
President Obama's Political Project
With so much of the public’s attention on President Obama's economic recovery package and plans for rescuing the financial system, Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner decided to step back and ask a more enduring question: what is the president’s mission and larger mandate for the country, as seen by the public. . . .

UVA: Alan Abramowitz 2/12
The False Hope of Bipartisanship
It's not a matter of "if." It's a matter of "when." As in, when will all of the feel-good rhetoric about Democrats and Republicans joining hands to solve the nation's problems come to an end and open partisan warfare resume in Washington? In fact, that time may already be here. . . .

McClatchy 2/12
Obama has political firepower
Nearly seven in ten Americans approve of the way President Barack Obama is doing his job, giving him enormous political capital as he pushes Congress to give him unprecedented tools to fight economic crisis, according to a new McClatchy-Ipsos poll. . . .

Gallup 2/11
Only 4 in 10 Believe in Evolution
On the eve of the 200th anniversary of Charles Darwin's birth, a new Gallup Poll shows that only 39% of Americans say they "believe in the theory of evolution," while a quarter say they do not believe in the theory, and another 36% don't have an opinion either way. These attitudes are strongly related to education and, to an even greater degree, religiosity. . . .

Gallup 2/11
Stimulus Support Edges Higher
Public support for an $800 billion economic stimulus package has increased to 59% in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Tuesday night, up from 52% in Gallup polling a week ago, as well as in late January. . . .

Democracy Corps 2/11
Support for Obama, Recovery Plan Remains Strong
A new survey by Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, completed in the wake of the Senate's passage of President Obama's economic recovery package, shows that support for Obama and his recovery plan remains strong. . . .

ABC News 2/11
Ratings of Economy at 23-Year Low
Consumer confidence suffered another blow this week as positive ratings of the national economy all but disappeared amid news of more job losses. . . .

ABC News 2/9
Afghans' Support for U.S. Efforts Tumbling
The United States, its NATO allies and the government of Hamid Karzai are losing not just ground in Afghanistan -- but also the hearts and minds of the Afghan people. A new national public opinion poll in Afghanistan by ABC News, the BBC and ARD German TV finds that performance ratings and support levels for the Kabul government and its Western allies have plummeted from their peaks, particularly in the past year. . . .

WorldPublicOpinion 2/6
Views of China and Russia Decline in Global Poll
Public views of China and Russia have slipped considerably in the past year, according to a new BBC World Service poll across 21 countries. Views of the US have improved modestly over the past year but remain predominantly negative, even though the poll was taken after President Obama's election. . . .

Pew Research Center 2/5
Americans Still Divided About Evolution
February 12 will mark the 200th anniversary of the birth of Charles Darwin, the British naturalist who developed the theory of evolution through natural selection. ... Opinion polls over the past two decades have found the American public deeply divided in its beliefs about the origins and development of life on earth. . . .

UVA: Alan Abramowitz 2/5
Did the Wall Street Meltdown Change the Election?
According to James Campbell, the mid-September financial crisis hit the 2008 presidential election like a bolt out of the blue, transforming it from a horserace in which John McCain had a real chance of victory into a one-sided contest in which Barack Obama enjoyed a decisive advantage. ... Contrary to Campbell's claim that the Wall Street meltdown changed everything, an examination of public opinion data from the spring and summer of 2008 shows that the Wall Street meltdown merely reinforced the public's already overwhelmingly negative opinions about the performance of the incumbent president and the condition of the economy. . . .

ABC News 2/4
Nondisclosure Cited in Iraq Casualties Study
In a highly unusual rebuke, the American Association for Public Opinion Research today said the author of a widely debated survey on "excess deaths" in Iraq had violated its code of professional ethics by refusing to disclose details of his work. The author's institution later disclosed to ABC News that it, too, is investigating the study. . . .

The Hill: Mark Mellman 2/4
How long will voters wait?
It is a question on the lips of almost every commentator: "When will voters stop being patient and start blaming President Obama for the country’s economic woes?" . . .

National Journal: Charlie Cook 2/4
For Obama and GOP, Questions of Perception
Here are two questions to ponder over the table in the Rayburn Cafeteria. The first is whether, over the next couple of months, President Obama's job approval numbers are tethered to successes and failures, or are they more conceptual -- such that two-thirds of Americans are either optimistic or hopeful about his presidency and are likely to give him the benefit of the doubt. The second question is whether the strategies employed by congressional Republicans will help or further isolate them from swing voters. . . .

USA Today 2/2
Public wary of stimulus package
Americans overwhelmingly want Congress to pass an economic stimulus bill, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, but expectations are low that it will have much of an effect on their own finances or turn the economy around this year. . . .

Democracy Corps 1/30
Strong Support for Obama Economic Plan
Two new surveys from Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner find strong support for President Barack Obama, his agenda and his economic plan. Indeed, Democratic incumbents, even those in battleground seats and elected in the last two elections, win more electoral support when they vote for the plan. . . .

Gallup 1/30
Football Fans Favor Cardinals in Super Bowl
While the general public is evenly divided in its rooting interests in this Sunday's Super Bowl, pro football fans say they would like the Arizona Cardinals -- rather than the Pittsburgh Steelers -- to win, by 44% to 35%. . . .

Pew Research Center 1/29
Dems' Favorability Advantage Widens
As Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress battle over President Barack Obama's economic stimulus package, the latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds the Democratic Party with a vast favorability advantage over the GOP. . . .

James E. Campbell 1/29
The 2008 Election in Perspective
... The Republicans did carry substantial political baggage into the 2008 election; but despite these considerable disadvantages, the open seat election was shaping up as a very close contest in the weeks before the national conventions and McCain took the lead after the conventions, only to plummet in the polls with the Wall Street meltdown in mid-September. . . .

Gallup 1/29
State of the States: Job-Market Conditions
According to combined Gallup Poll Daily tracking for all of 2008, oil-producing states Wyoming, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas took four of the top five spots as the "best state job markets." By way of contrast, long economically depressed Michigan and housing disaster states Florida and Nevada took three of the four "worst state job market" spots. . . .

Gallup 1/29
State of the States: Consumer Confidence
According to combined Gallup Poll Daily tracking for all of 2008, residents of Rhode Island had the lowest level of confidence in the U.S. economy of any state in the union last year, followed by Michigan, Maine, and Massachusetts. . . .

Public Policy Institute of California (pdf) 1/29
Californians Back President Obama's Recovery Plan
A majority of Californians support President Barack Obama's economic recovery plan and see it as important in meeting the state's infrastructure needs, according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). . . .

Democracy Corps 1/28
Obama and the Senior Vote
... Election Day was full of historic results for Barack Obama. But his performance among seniors (age 65 and over) provided one of the few lower points, as exit polls show that Obama lost to John McCain among seniors 45 to 53 percent. . . .

Gallup 1/28
State of the States: Importance of Religion
An analysis of more than 350,000 interviews conducted by Gallup in 2008 finds Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Arkansas to be the most religious states in the nation. Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and Massachusetts are the least religious states. . . .

Gallup 1/28
State of the States: Political Party Affiliation
An analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from 2008 finds Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Hawaii to be the most Democratic states in the nation, along with the District of Columbia. Utah and Wyoming are the most Republican states. . . .

ABC News 1/28
Consumer Confidence Ties its Record Low
Consumer confidence has matched its worst in 23 years of weekly polls, with a record number of Americans saying their personal finances are in bad shape and nearly all rating the national economy negatively. . . .

Gallup 1/26
Obama's Initial Approval Ratings in Historical Context
With a 69% job approval rating in the latest Gallup Poll Daily update, Barack Obama continues a strong start to his presidency. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 1/26
Bipartisanship on the Stimulus: Clean Power and...
When it comes to stimulus spending, bipartisanship starts with alternative energy. The problem: It also pretty much ends there. . . .

Los Angeles Times: Frank Luntz 1/23
Infrastructure: It's Job 1 to Americans
I'm a pollster and political consultant associated with Republican causes: the Contract with America, the "death tax" and, of course, ending wasteful Washington spending. So why am I behind the new stimulus legislation -- the biggest spending bill ever to be considered by Congress? . . .

Gallup 1/23
Democrats' '08 Advantage in Party ID Largest Since '83
An average of 36% of Americans identified themselves as Democrats and 28% as Republicans in 2008. . . .

Pew Research Center 1/22
Economy, Jobs Trump All Other Policy Priorities
As Barack Obama takes office, the public's focus is overwhelmingly on domestic policy concerns – particularly the economy. . . .

Gallup 1/22
What History Foretells for Obama's First Job Rating
Barack Obama can expect to receive a rating above 50% when Gallup reports his first job approval rating this weekend. All elected presidents since Dwight Eisenhower began their terms in office with approval ratings above 50%, generally low disapproval ratings, and high "no opinion" levels. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 1/21
Will Americans Embrace Obama's "Change"?
Change has come. And Americans expect it. But "change" can mean many things. Last week, when CBS News and The New York Times asked Americans to tell us their expectations for the Obama Presidency, 70 percent believed that President Obama will "bring about real change in the way things are done in Washington." . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 1/21
Gitmo and Torture: Slam Dunks?
Majorities of Americans support Barack Obama's positions on Guantanamo and the torture of terrorism suspects – but with enough doubters to make those policies something less than a slam dunk in terms of public opinion. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 1/20
Post-Partisanship? Let's See
The buzz surrounding Barack Obama's inauguration – made explicit in his address today – is the prospect of a post-partisan presidency. The reality: Let's see. . . .

Gallup 1/20
Optimism Abounds as Power Changes Hands
Americans' high hopes for the country under the Obama presidency are perhaps best represented by the new USA Today/Gallup poll finding that 72% of Americans think the country will be better off four years from now. . . .

World Public Opinion 1/20
Optimism That Obama Will Improve U.S. Relations
As Barack Obama prepares to be sworn in as the 44th president of the United States, a new 17-nation poll conducted for the BBC World Service finds widespread and growing optimism that his presidency will lead to improved relations between the United States and the rest of the world. . . .

Gallup 1/19
Domestic Priorities Top Americans' To-Do List
Americans think it is very important that Barack Obama follow through on his promises to address problems in healthcare, energy, and the economy. They are less likely to view his pledges to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq or expand U.S. military power in Afghanistan as critical priorities. . . .

Washington Post: Behind the Numbers 1/19
The President-Elect and the Pastor
Barack Obama's pick of evangelical pastor Rick Warren to deliver the invocation at tomorrow's inauguration was initially met by a torrent of criticism, but it's unlikely to spark broad controversy - most Americans support the idea. . . .

Washington Post 1/19
Far Fewer Consider Racism Big Problem
As President-elect Barack Obama prepares to take office, far fewer black and white Americans say they view racism as "a big problem" in American society than said so in mid-1996, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

ABC News 1/18
Strong Ratings Greet Obama, Discontent in the Wings
A potentially volatile mix of high hopes for the new president and deep dissatisfaction with the country's condition greets Barack Obama's inauguration – a political fulcrum that could tip for or against him as he grapples with the country's economic crisis. . . .

New York Times 1/17
Poll Finds Faith in Obama, Mixed With Patience
President-elect Barack Obama is riding a powerful wave of optimism into the White House, with Americans confident he can turn the economy around but prepared to give him years to deal with the crush of problems he faces starting Tuesday, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll. . . .

New York Times 1/17
Disapproval of Bush Unwavering
President Bush prepares to leave office with no evidence that public opinion toward him is softening during his final days in power, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 1/16
The View From Kenya
High expectations of Barack Obama are not limited to the United States: They've soared to near-unanimity in his ancestral Kenya, to some extent bridging tribal tensions that spilled into violence there last year. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 1/15
Bush's Popularity Reaches Historic Lows
As the days of second and final term dwindle down (“to a precious few,” as an old song goes), President Bush is likely to leave office as the least popular president in polling history. . . .

Salt Lake Tribune 1/15
Even in Utah, Bush presidency rated lackluster, poor
President Bush's approval rating in Utah has dipped below 50 percent for the first time in a Salt Lake Tribune poll - a sign that the commander in chief's reputation has taken a beating even in his strongholds. . . .

Pew Hispanic Center 1/15
Hispanics and the New Administration
A year and a half after a lengthy, often rancorous debate over immigration reform filled the chambers of a stalemated Congress, the issue appears to have receded in importance among one of the groups most affected by it--Latinos. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 1/15
A Polling Fairy Tale
Once upon a time an utterly inconsequential poll made the rounds - but one that underscored a highly consequential question in my corner of the world, and, ultimately, yours: What kind of standards news organizations apply to the data they report. . . .

Esquire: Nate Silver 1/14
How Obama Really Won the Election
If Bill Clinton was the first black president, then Barack Obama might be the first urban one. He is the only American president in recent history to seem unembarrassed about claiming a personal residence in a major American city. . . .

Democracy Corps 1/13
The 2008 Early Vote
... The early vote overall was very beneficial to Obama and Democrats. Self-identified Democrats made up a disproportionate share of the early vote, and many of them considered themselves strong Democrats. . . .

Center for American Progress 1/12
The Public Supports a Major Effort to Fight Poverty
One might assume that taking action to help the poorest among us wouldn’t draw much support these days with so many Americans worried about their own economic situation. But that’s not the case. A Gerstein/Agne poll conducted right after the election showed overwhelming support for setting a national goal to cut poverty in half within 10 years. . . .

Washington Post 1/12
Cellphones' Growth Does Number on Health Research
... The popularity of cellular telephones, an increasingly mobile population, rising expenses, flat budgets and new insights into ways people can answer a question differently depending on how it's asked -- all are conspiring to make health surveys more difficult. . . .

Bloomberg 1/9
Obama Uses Campaign Tactics to Sell Stimulus Plan
President-elect Barack Obama's top political aides are adapting their campaign tactics to selling policy, using data from polls and focus groups to shape the debate over a stimulus plan that may cost at least $775 billion. . . .

Cornell Belcher (pdf) 1/9
The Arc of the Democratic Party from 2004 - 2008
... There are a number of extraordinary stories to be told about the 2008 Democratic presidential and congressional elections. The one that has yet to be explored involves a deeper look at the turnaround by the Democratic Party not only this year, but over the course of the last four years, starting with the challenges the Democratic Party faced in the wake of George W. Bush's reelection and long coattails. . . .

Gallup 1/8
Consumer Expectations Improving With New Year
Consumer expectations are getting a little better as the new year gets underway. The percentage of consumers saying the economy is "getting better" minus the percentage saying it is "getting worse" improved to -58 points during the week ending Jan. 4, 2009, after having hit -70 in mid-December as a reflection of deteriorating consumer expectations. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 1/8
Told Ya
Told ya so. OK, that is not terribly polite. But when it comes to the holiday shopping season, it's true, and it tells us something about the utility of public opinion polls that reaches well outside the little hothouse of election politics. . . .

CBS News: Poll Positions 1/7
The Polling Challenges For 2009
Did we learn anything in 2008 election campaign polling that will help us measure the public's assessment of the new administration in Washington? . . .

ABC News 1/7
Bush Legacy: A Tale of Two Terms
Sequentially hammered by the Iraq war, the bungled response to Hurricane Katrina, soaring gasoline prices and, as the coup de grace, the current economic crisis, Bush endured his second term without once attaining majority public approval -- a feat unseen in 70 years of presidential approval polls. . . .

The Hill: David Hill 1/7
Americans still riding wrong track
Americans are proving to be a cantankerous lot. The anticipated turnaround in the nation's mood has not occurred, despite the election of a new president who ostensibly represented hope and a new direction for so many in this country. . . .

Gallup 1/5
Despite Recent Lows, Bush Approval Avg. Midrange
Extreme highs and lows have characterized George W. Bush's job approval ratings as president. His record 90% approval rating early in his presidency following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks stands in stark contrast to his sub-30% approval ratings during most of his final year in office, which rank among the lowest ratings ever measured. . . .

Pew Research Center 1/5
States of the Union Before and After Bush
What a difference eight years can make -- or not. Between the final days of the presidency of Bill Clinton and the current wrapping up of the administration of George W. Bush, many changes have occurred in the state of the nation's polity and economy. And yet . . . others things, most notably certain American beliefs and attitudes, have remained remarkably constant. . . .

Gallup 1/2
Liberals' Confidence in Obama Remains High
Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds support for Barack Obama among liberal Democrats holding steady at 93% despite news reports that his core supporters are disappointed with some of his cabinet appointments and other decisions. Meanwhile, in recent weeks, Obama's ratings have improved among conservative Republicans, up from 23% to 29%. . . .

Gallup 1/2/09
Nearly Half in U.S. are Frequent Internet Users
Americans' frequent use of the Internet has almost doubled over the last five years; 48% now report using the Internet more than one hour per day compared to 26% in 2002. . . .

CNN 12/31/08
Obama leadership rates high as Bush's after 9/11
A national poll suggests that three-quarters of the public thinks President-elect Barack Obama is a strong and decisive leader, the highest marks for a president-elect on that characteristic in nearly three decades. . . .

Pew Internet Project (pdf) 12/30
Post-election voter engagement
... A majority of Obama voters expect to carry on efforts to support his policies and try to persuade others to back his initiatives in the coming year; a substantial number expect to hear directly from Obama and his team; and a notable cohort say they have followed the transition online. . . .

ABC News 12/30
Confidence Closes Out 2008 With Worst 4th Qtr Ever
Consumer confidence struggled through its second-worst year capped off by the worst fourth quarter ever. Along the way, it set or tied new lows four times. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 12/25
The Veteran Vote -- an Update
... While veterans clearly favored John McCain, it was by less of a margin than you might suppose for a candidate with a celebrated war record: McCain won veterans by 10 points, compared with George W. Bush's 16-point margin in 2004. . . .

Pew Research Center 12/24
Internet Overtakes Newspapers as News Source
The internet, which emerged this year as a leading source for campaign news, has now surpassed all other media except television as a main source for national and international news. . . .

ABC News 12/24
America's Christmas Wish List
Under the tree, let's just call it a year of modest expectations. . . .

Gallup 12/23
An Economic Depression?
Since March, the percentage of Americans largely ruling out the possibility of an economic depression in the next two years has shrunk from 40% to 25%, while the percentage saying it is "very likely" has grown from 23% to 35%. . . .

Washington Post 12/21
Optimism High About Obama Policies
Most Americans are optimistic about the policies that Barack Obama will pursue when he becomes the country's 44th president next month, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, and there is a widespread public desire that he quickly expand his focus beyond the economy, the dominant issue facing the country. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 12/19
Requiem for a Poll
This note marks the passing of a fallen comrade: The Los Angeles Times Poll, dead at age 31. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 12/18
Advantage, Democrats
The Democratic Party has soared to its widest advantage over the Republicans in trust to handle the nation's main problems in 26 years of ABC News/Washington Post polls, aided both by Barack Obama's strong ratings and George W. Bush's weak ones. . . .

Pew Global Attitudes Project 12/18
Global Public Opinion in the Bush Years
... The president-elect has indicated that he will focus on international cooperation in addressing global problems, but he will have to navigate a world that has grown highly critical of the United States. The U.S. image abroad is suffering almost everywhere. . . .

Pew Research Center 12/18
Reviewing the Bush Years
... In a December 2008 Pew Research Center survey, just 11% said Bush will be remembered as an outstanding or above average president -- by far the lowest positive end-of-term rating for any of the past four presidents. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 12/18
The Walking Wounded
Job losses are a common focus in evaluating economic pain, and for good reason. But there are other approaches employers use to adjust to a shrinking economy – cuts in pay or in work hours – that also have powerful effects on public attitudes and behavior. . . .

Pew Research Center (pdf) 12/18
Calling cell phones in '08 pre-election polls
Public opinion polling faced many challenges during the 2008 presidential election. None was more daunting than the rising number of "cell phone only" voters who could not be reached over the landline telephones. . . .

Financial Week 12/17
Public beat economists in calling the recession
Which of two groups -- economists or the general public -- came closer to predicting the recession? Surprisingly, it looks like the Joe Six Packs of the world were better economic prognosticators than the elbow patch set. . . .

Wall Street Journal 12/17
Cellphones Challenge for Pollsters Grows
While telephone polls did a good job of predicting last month's presidential race, the increasing number of Americans who are ditching their landlines creates a big challenge for pollsters. . . . A reminder of this challenge came Wednesday, as it comes every six months, in the latest numbers on wireless-only households from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics. . . ..

Washington Post 12/17
63% Are Already Hurt by Downturn
The deepening recession has eroded the financial standing and optimism of a broad swath of Americans, nearly two-thirds of whom say that they have been hurt by the downturn and that the country has slipped into long-term economic decline. . . .

The Hill: David Hill 12/17
Blago impact likely slight
Republicans in Illinois are doubtless convinced that our party will benefit from the fall of Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D). Heck, I imagine that Republicans in other states are also trying to figure out how they can leverage this mess in Illinois to have their own Republicans come out looking like the good guys in the white hats. . . .

WorldPublicOpinion.org 12/17
International Opposition to US Bases in Persian Gulf
A WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 21 nations around the world finds widespread opposition to the United States having naval forces based in the Persian Gulf. . . .

Pew Research Center 12/16
Public Affairs Knowledge
A new Pew News IQ survey yields some predictable results about the public's knowledge of facts about politics and world affairs, but also a few surprises. . . .

Los Angeles Times 12/10
Obama enjoys strong public support
Barack Obama approaches the White House with a deep well of public support, even though many doubt the president-elect can fulfill some key promises, according to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll. . . .

The Hill: Mark Mellman 12/10
What the heck happened in Indiana?
While some have spent the last four years asking, "What’s the matter with Kansas?" the more interesting question, in the aftermath of this election, is what the heck happened in Indiana? . . .

The Hill: David Hill 12/10
Texas GOPers need their 'Howdy!' back
Texas Republicans -- like Republicans in the rest of the nation -- have some fence-mending to do. This will surprise outsiders who wrongly suppose that Texas is the reddest of red states. . . .

ABC News 12/9
Confidence in a Record Slump
The weekly ABC News Consumer Comfort Index entered its 23rd year this week with consumer confidence mired at historic lows. . . .

Gallup 12/9
Car Company Execs Blamed for U.S. Auto Crisis
Americans place the blame for the current U.S. auto company crisis squarely on the backs of those companies' executives, with 65% of Americans saying the execs deserve a great deal of blame for the problems of the auto industry -- a much higher percentage than blame labor unions, the current economic recession, government regulations, or the American consumer. . . .

Pew Research Center 12/8
Some Final Thoughts on Campaign '08
From the beginning of the campaign to its conclusion, Democrats consistently expressed more interest in election news than did Republicans. That represents a change from previous campaigns. . . .

New York Times 12/7
Not All New Democrats Rode an Obama Tide
The House will be awash in Democrats next year, but they did not all ride in on an Obama tide. A new look at Congressional election results shows that in most of the 71 more competitive House races, the Democrats ran stronger than President-elect Barack Obama did. . . .

PPIC (pfd) 12/4
Calif.: Proposition 8 Results Expose Deep Rifts
Proposition 8, the ballot measure that banned same-sex marriage in the state, drew its strongest support from evangelical Christians and Republicans, according to a postelection survey released today . . . . Majorities of Latinos, voters without a college degree, and those age 55 and older also backed the measure, which passed by a 4-point margin (52% yes, 48% no). . . .

Democracy Corps 12/3
The President-elect's Standing
The latest national survey from Democracy Corps finds an electorate that gives President-elect Barack Obama strong marks -- even stronger than on the last occasion when the country turned to a Democrat to lead in 1992 -- and with even higher expectations. . . .

The Hill: Mark Mellman 12/3
Three groups to watch
Take a guess. Which demographic group doubled its share of the electorate from 2004 to 2008? Here's a hint. It's the same segment that increased its support for the Democratic presidential candidate more than any other. . . .

ABC News 12/2
Confidence Hits Another New Low
Consumer confidence has reached a new low in weekly polling since late 1985, coinciding with official word the U.S. economy has been in recession the past year. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 12/2
The Flip States
Nine states with 112 electoral votes made the difference for Barack Obama this year -- the flip states John Kerry lost to George W. Bush in 2004, but Obama won. . . . The question: What changed? . . .

WorldPublicOpinion.org 11/20
World Publics Favor More Wind and Solar Energy
A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 21 nations finds very strong support for the government requiring utilities to use more alternative energy, such as wind and solar, and requiring businesses to use energy more efficiently, even if these steps increase the costs of energy and other products. . . .

ABC News 11/19
Holiday Spending Plans Plummet
Americans plan to cut back drastically on holiday spending this year, a dismal prospect for retailers in their most critical season. Fifty-one percent in this ABC News poll say they'll spend less this year than last on holiday gifts, matching the sharpest consumer retreat in polls dating back 23 years -- last seen ahead of the dreadful Christmas retail performance just after the 1990-91 recession. . . .

ABC News 11/18
Confidence Drops to a 22-Year Low
Consumer confidence dropped this week to its lowest in 22 years of weekly polls by ABC News, hammered by the global economic crisis and threatening a grim holiday season for the nation's retailers. . . .

Washington Post 11/18
Voters' Vantage Point: SCOTUS
President-elect Barack Obama is expected to have the opportunity to appoint several justices to the Supreme Court, with much of the speculation centered on Justice John Paul Stevens, the oldest and longest-serving of the nine. While Stevens is giving few signals about when he intends to step down, voters who cast their ballots with the high court in mind made some of their views known on Election Day. . . .

Washington Post 11/15
Voters' Vantage Point: The Economy
... The economy's rise as the election's top issue helped propel Barack Obama's campaign to victory, and amid widespread concern over the economy's direction are signs most voters who cast a ballot with the economy in mind favor a stronger - and different - approach from the federal government. . . .

Pew Research Center 11/13
High Marks for the Campaign, a High Bar for Obama
A week after the election, voters are feeling good about themselves, the presidential campaign and Barack Obama. Looking ahead, they have high expectations for the Obama administration, with two-thirds predicting that he will have a successful first term. . . .

UVA: Rhodes Cook 11/13
From Republican lock to Republican lockout?
... It is hard to imagine that barely 20 years ago, it was fashionable to talk of a Republican 'lock' -- a GOP dominance of the electoral map so strong that it appeared to guarantee the party possession of the White House for years to come. But, as is often said: That was then and this is now. . . .

ABC News: The Numbers 11/11
Ideological Underpinnings
Republicans pondering their fate and future have noted that while there was a partisan shift in voter turnout this year, there wasn't an ideological one: Conservatives still outnumber liberals by 50 percent. It's true -- but the comfort may be, let's say, a cool one. . . .

New York Times: Stan Greenberg 11/11
Goodbye, Reagan Democrats
I'm finished with the Reagan Democrats of Macomb County in suburban Detroit after making a career of spotlighting their middle-class anger and frustrations about race and Democratic politicians. . . .

New York Times 11/11
For South, a Waning Hold on National Politics
... By voting so emphatically for Senator John McCain over Mr. Obama -- supporting him in some areas in even greater numbers than they did President Bush -- voters from Texas to South Carolina and Kentucky may have marginalized their region for some time to come, political experts say. . . .

WorldPublicOpinion.org 11/11
Ensuring Basic Healthcare, Food, and Education Needs
A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of 21 nations around the world finds that large majorities in every country say their government should be responsible for ensuring that citizens can meet their basic needs for food, healthcare, and education. . . .

CNN 11/10
Belief that country headed in right direction at new low
... Only 16 percent of those questioned in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Monday say things are going well in the country today. That's an all-time low. . . . The all-time low on the public's mood may have something to do with the poll's finding that President Bush is the most unpopular president since approval ratings were first sought more than six decades ago. . . .

IndyStar.com: J. Ann Selzer 11/10
Worry drives pollster to get Indiana right
... The secret to my success as a pollster is that I know how much to worry and where to direct that worry-driven energy. I've been worrying about Indiana for months. We predicted a tight race with Obama one point up, and that is exactly what happened. . . .

New York Times 11/9
Dissecting the Changing Electorate
One way to consider Barack Obama's success last Tuesday is to consider John McCain's failure. By virtually every electoral measure -- including age, sex, race, religion, income and region -- Mr. McCain lost ground won by George W. Bush four years ago. . . .

Associated Press 11/8
Exit Poll Confirms Partisan Shift
The 2008 presidential election saw the biggest partisan shift in a generation -- more of a rejection of Republicans than an embrace of Democrats -- but voter surveys find no broad ideological realignment behind that shift. . . .

Los Angeles Times 11/8
L.A.'s shade of blue
In national terms, California is about as indelibly blue as the political process permits, but an unusually comprehensive exit poll of voters in Tuesday's presidential election confirms that Los Angeles is perhaps the bluest of the blue; it is now more liberal and Democratic than the state as a whole. . . .

CAIR 11/7
89% of Muslim Voters Picked Obama
The American Muslim Taskforce on Civil Rights and Elections (AMT) today released the results of a poll indicating that almost 90% of American Muslim voters picked Barack Obama in Tuesday's election. That survey of more than 600 American Muslim voters also indicated that just 2% of respondents cast their ballots for Sen. John McCain. . . .

Washington Post: Behind the Numbers
A Look at Cell-Only Voters  11/7
Exit polling is notable after Election Day primarily for its massive store of data on voters. Among the unexplored numbers so far this year is new information about those voters who have abandoned their home phones and gone "cell-only." . . .

New York Times 11/7
Obama Made Gains Among Younger Evangelical Voters
President-elect Barack Obama succeeded in chiseling off small but significant chunks of white evangelical voters who have been the foundation of the Republican Party for decades, a close look at voting patterns reveals. The change reflects a broader shift among religious voters in every category. . . .

Gallup 11/6
Blacks, Postgrads, Young Adults Help Obama Prevail
The final pre-election Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey of nearly 2,500 likely voters shows that Barack Obama won the 2008 presidential election with practically total support from black Americans, and heavy backing from those with postgraduate educations, young adults (male and female alike), and non-churchgoers. At least 6 in 10 voters in all of these categories cast their votes for Obama. . . .

Washington Post 11/6
Democrats Add Suburbs to Their Growing Coalition
After President Bush's reelection in 2004, top strategist Karl Rove proclaimed the arrival of a permanent Republican majority. Just four years later, the results from Sen. Barack Obama's definitive victory suggest that the opposite may be underway. . . .

Contra Costa Times 11/6
Pollsters wonder why Prop. 8 defied expectations
... "The bottom line is the public, the voters, are very closely divided on same-sex marriage today," said Mark Baldassare, president of the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. "And when all was said and done, you just have to say the 'yes' side was just a little bit more persuasive than the 'no' side." . . .

AP/LAT 11/6
Obama results show narrowing of 'God gap'
In building a winning coalition of religious voters, Barack Obama cut into the so-called God gap that puts frequent worshippers in the Republican column, won Catholics, made inroads with younger evangelicals, and racked up huge numbers with minorities and people with no religious affiliation. . . .

Pew Research Center 11/5
Inside Obama's Sweeping Victory
Barack Obama captured the White House on the strength of a substantial electoral shift toward the Democratic Party and by winning a number of key groups in the middle of the electorate. . . .

ABC News 11/5
Storm of Voter Dissatisfaction Lifts Obama
Barack Obama rode a storm of voter dissatisfaction to his history-making victory, lifted to office as the first African-American president by the battered economy, a generational and partisan shift in political power and the resonance of his promise of change. . . .

Gallup 11/5
Obama's Road to the White House
Barack Obama's victory over John McCain in the 2008 presidential election concludes a race that was highly competitive for much of the year. . . .

CBS News 11/5
What Obama's Win Means
Barack Obama's decisive win over McCain signaled more than just the voters' preferred candidate; it offered valuable insights about the future of American politics. An analysis of the CBS exit polls reveals six key lessons from the 2008 presidential election. . . .

New York Times 11/5
Obama Built a Broad Coalition
Senator Barack Obama, the first African-American nominee for president, drew more support in Tuesday's election than any recent candidates of the Democratic Party among a broad range of demographic groups, including several that typically favor Republicans. . . .

ABC News 11/4
Consumer Confidence is Election-Day Worst Since '92
Consumer confidence is its Election-Day worst since 1992, only 3 points from its low in 22 years of weekly ABC News polls. ABC's Consumer Comfort Index stands at -48 on its scale of -100 to +100, very near its worst ever, -51 in May. The last time it languished this low for this long was after the 1990-91 recession, sealing George H.W. Bush's loss in 1992. . . .

Gallup 11/4
High Personal Investment in Election Outcome
A recent Gallup Poll finds 74% of Americans saying the outcome of this year's presidential election matters more to them than in previous years -- slightly more than said this about the 2004 election, and well above the figures from the 1996 and 2000 elections. . . .

Gallup 11/3
Obama vs. McCain, Change vs. Experience
As voters prepare to go to the polls on Nov. 4, a new Gallup Poll panel survey shows that Barack Obama voters say they are motivated to vote for their candidate because he would bring about change and provide a fresh approach to governing, while John McCain voters are supporting their candidate both because of his experience, and because they agree with his views on issues. . . .

ABC News 11/3
Obama Leads; Economy Makes the Difference
Barack Obama has ridden his theme of change to a clear advantage in the closing days of the 2008 presidential campaign, his lead in overall vote preference buttressed by his personal and policy ratings alike -- and above all his trust to handle the battered economy. . . .

Democracy Corps 11/3
Obama Lead Built on Expanding Advantage on Issues
The final national survey from Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner shows Obama with a stable and decisive lead in the race for president. But there is much more going on that will likely produce an even bigger outcome. . . .

Washington Post: Jon Cohen 11/1
Our Polls Are on the Mark. I Think.
January, you may recall, was a rough month for the pollsters. All the polls showed Sen. Barack Obama poised to follow up his big win in the Iowa caucuses with a knockout blow to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the New Hampshire primary. But he lost, sending the 13 firms that did public pre-election polls there scrambling for explanations. Could polling be similarly embarrassed this month, misjudging the last chapter of this epic presidential election? Thoughts of the Granite State jolt me and my fellow pollsters awake in the dead of night during these final days. . . .

[ See earlier items ]

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