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ABC News: Gary Langer 8/30
This I Believe
It's quickly mushroomed into the summer's hottest data point: A boatload of Americans believe Barack Obama's a Muslim. Except that, maybe, they don't. Consider this instead: They're just willing to say it. ...

Gallup 8/30
GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot
Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress. ...

Washington Post: Chris Cillizza 8/30
In 2010, Obama's poll numbers less of an asset
... Obama's political fortunes have dipped in a handful of states holding competitive Senate races - complicating the winning math for Democratic candidates already struggling with a pessimistic electorate that remains deeply concerned about the country's direction. ...

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Washington Post 8/29
D.C. Mayor Fenty getting more credit than support
Mayor Adrian M. Fenty is foundering in his reelection bid against his chief opponent, D.C. Council Chairman Vincent C. Gray, despite a widespread sense that the city is heading in the right direction, according to a new Washington Post poll. ...

Newsweek 8/28
Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath
As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there's reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. ...

Pew 8/26
Five Years after Katrina
Five years after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, a majority of Americans (57%) say that the nation is no better prepared for hurricanes and other natural disasters than it was in 2005. ...

Gallup 8/26
Americans Oppose Renewing Combat Operations in Iraq
Americans are about twice as likely to oppose as they are to favor renewing U.S. combat operations in Iraq if Iraqi forces are unable to maintain security there. ...

Phi Delta Kappa (pdf) 8/25
Slippage in Support of Obama's Education Agenda
Despite high levels of agreement with the administration's agenda shown in two previous PDK/Gallup annual polls, Americans are now less supportive of President Barack Obama's education agenda, according to the 2010 annual PDK/Gallup Poll of the Public's Attitudes Toward the Public Schools. ...

Peter J. Woolley & Dan Cassino 8/25
Polling a Third Party Challenger: Fact or Artifact?
Giving equal place to a third party or independent challenger may over-estimate his or her support by putting that candidate on an equal footing with much better known major party nominees. On the other hand ....

Reuters 8/25
Job fears grip voters, Obama ratings crumble
More Americans now disapprove of President Barack Obama than approve of him as high unemployment and government spending scare voters ahead of November's congressional elections. ...

Pew 8/24
Public Remains Conflicted Over Islam
The public continues to express conflicted views of Islam. Favorable opinions of Islam have declined since 2005, but there has been virtually no change over the past year in the proportion of Americans saying that Islam is more likely than other religions to encourage violence. ...

Gallup 8/23
Obama Weekly Job Approval Average at New Low
President Obama's job approval rating slipped to 43% for the week of Aug. 16-22, down one percentage point from the previous weekly low set a week ago. ...

Washington Post: Chris Cillizza 8/23
Poll numbers in 1994 don't bode well for Democrats
... Some neutral observers and senior strategists within the party have begun to believe that the national political environment is not only similar to what they saw in 1994 -- when Democrats lost control of the House and Senate -- but could in fact be worse by Election Day. ...

Gallup 8/23
Record Surge in Positive Ratings of Auto Industry
Americans' opinions of the automobile industry brightened considerably after reaching an all-time low last year, and now tilt more positive than negative for the first time in three years. ...

NYT: Andrew Gelman, Jeffrey Lax, Justin Phillips 8/22
Over Time, a Gay Marriage Groundswell
Gay marriage is not going away as a highly emotional, contested issue. Proposition 8, the California ballot measure that bans same-sex marriage, has seen to that, as it winds its way through the federal courts. But perhaps the public has reached a turning point. ...

Washington Post: Dan Balz 8/21
Reagan's first term offers measuring stick for Obama
Throughout this long year, President Obama's advisers have sometimes looked to Ronald Reagan for comparison and inspiration. If the Gipper could survive a deep recession, low approval ratings and an adverse midterm election in his first two years and win reelection handily two years later, then Obama could easily do the same, they reason. ...

Gallup 8/20
Slim Majority Says Iraq War Will Be Judged a Failure
More Americans believe history will judge the Iraq war as a failure (53%) rather than a success (42%). ...

New York Times 8/20
Census Survey Asks Too Much, G.O.P. Says
... The Republican Party isn't taking on the census itself ... but the more comprehensive American Community Survey. ... But the Republican National Committee resolved this month that the Census Bureau behaves "exactly as a scam artist would, asking very personal questions," and called the survey "a dangerous invasion of privacy," and "overreaching and intimidating." ...

Time 8/19
Majority Opposes Mosque, Many Distrust Muslims
Opponents of the planned Islamic community center and mosque near Ground Zero in Lower Manhattan have public opinion firmly in their corner. ...

Pew 8/19
Growing Number of Americans Say Obama is a Muslim
A substantial and growing number of Americans say that Barack Obama is a Muslim, while the proportion saying he is a Christian has declined. ...

Gallup 8/18
More Disapprove Than Approve of Mosque Remarks
More Americans disapprove than approve of President Barack Obama's recent comments concerning the planned construction of a mosque near where the Sept. 11 terror attacks occurred in New York City, but 4 in 10 do not have an opinion on the matter. ...

Gallup 8/17
GOP Shows Strongest Positioning Yet in 2010 Vote Test
Gallup's latest update on 2010 congressional voting preferences finds 50% of registered voters saying they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district, and 43% for the Democratic candidate, if the elections were held today. ...

Gallup 8/16
Obama Sees New Lows in Job Approval
President Obama's job approval rating dipped to 44% for the week of Aug. 9-15, the lowest weekly average of his administration by one percentage point. ...

Washington Post: Dan Balz 8/15
Desperate Dems pin their hopes on scary Republicans
Democrats have no illusions about what they're up against this fall: a terrible economic climate, a sour electorate and a sizable enthusiasm gap. ... Rather than trumpeting their legislative record, it appears likely that the Democrats' favored tactic will be claiming that Republicans would do worse. ...

Alan Abramowitz & Norman Ornstein 8/15
Five myths about midterm elections
... Midterm elections are a uniquely American ritual -- most democracies choose their legislators and executive leaders at the same time -- and they have, over the years, given rise to their share of homegrown political wisdom. But not all of that wisdom is borne out by recent history. ...

CBS: Sarah Dutton 8/13
Obama and Independents: What Happened?
... The president retains the support of nearly 4 in 5 Democrats, and about the same percentage of Republicans disapproves. Those figures have varied little since Barack Obama assumed office. But his support among independents - those Americans who don't identify with either the Republican or Democratic party - has dropped significantly since last year. ...

Ronald Brownstein 8/13
A Corrosive Collapse In Confidence
The electoral wave threatening congressional Democrats this fall looks at least as big as the breakers that flattened congressional Republicans in 2006 and 2008. But the odds are high that this won't be the last storm surge from an angry sea of American discontent. ...

Kaiser Family Foundation 8/13
New Orleans Residents Say Recovery Is Making Progress
Five years after Hurricane Katrina, an increasing majority of the city's residents says the rebuilding process is going well, but substantial majorities still report that the city has not recovered and feel the nation has forgotten them. ...

Democracy Corps / Campaign for America's Future 8/12
Big Decisions Ahead on Economic Renewal and Debt
At this difficult moment for the struggling economy and country, voters show an uncommon common sense about the choices ahead. ...

MSNBC 8/12
Jet Blue Nation
If you follow politics and read polls, you already know the public is angry. But our new NBC/WSJ poll reveals that Americans are more than angry -- they're ready to cuss out someone over the intercom, grab a beer from the drink cart, and exit via the emergency slide. ...

Alan Abramowitz 8/12
Caught in the Tide
... I present evidence in this article that gubernatorial elections are strongly influenced by national political tides and that their outcomes can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy by the same factors that predict the outcomes of congressional elections. ...

Pew 8/11
Religion in the 2008 Presidential Election
... An analysis of newly released exit poll data by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life finds that Obama succeeded in attracting a larger share of the vote from some religious groups than the 2004 Democratic nominee, John Kerry, had received. ...

Gallup 8/11
Low Approval of Congress Not Budging, Now 19%
Congress' job rating from the American people in August remains near the historical lows seen in recent months. Nineteen percent of Americans now approve of the overall job Congress is doing, while 75% disapprove. ...

New York Times 8/10
Obama's Youthful Voters Likely to Skip Midterms
Will all of those young, enthusiastic Obama voters turn out in 2010? If history is any guide, probably not. ...

Gallup 8/10
GOP Maintains Lead on Generic Ballot for Congress
Republicans have a 49% to 43% lead over Democrats among registered voters in Gallup's generic ballot for Congress for the week of Aug. 2-8, the second straight week in which Republicans have held an edge in projected voting. ...

American Crossroads 8/10
U.S. Senate Battleground Survey
... Independents are breaking heavily to the Republican candidates, and high interest voters provide significantly more support to the Republican candidates than the electorate overall. ...

Gallup 8/9
Avg. Midterm Seat Loss 36 for Presidents Below 50%
Presidents who retain majority job approval from Americans at the time of midterm elections are much less likely to see their party suffer heavy seat losses than are those with sub-50% approval ratings. ...

Washington Post 8/7
Marriage ruling unlikely to be midterm rallying issue
At another time, the ruling overturning California's ban on same sex marriages might have landed with the force of a political earthquake. Instead, the relatively restrained response underscores both the singular economic focus of this year's elections and the shifting politics of one of the country's major social issues. ...

Charlie Cook 8/7
Less Is More For Indie Voters
... Many Americans, particularly independent voters, seem to be changing their minds and seeing the role of government in a somewhat different light. ...

Wall Street Journal: Carl Bialik 8/7
Online Polling Burnishes Its Image
... Daily tracking polls are becoming a must-have for companies who have suffered blows to their public standing. Online polls are fast, and often less expensive than telephone surveys. ...

CBS: Jennifer De Pinto 8/6
Obama's Low Poll Numbers Mirror Past Presidents'
... At 44 percent, Mr. Obama's approval rating is similar to those of Bill Clinton (42 percent) and Ronald Reagan (42 percent) at comparable times in their presidencies. Mr. Obama's rating is slightly higher than Jimmy Carter's (38 percent). ...

Gallup 8/4
Support for Confirming Elena Kagan Remains in Mid-40s
Just under half of Americans -- 46% -- would like to see the U.S. Senate vote to confirm Solicitor General Elena Kagan to the U.S. Supreme Court, a bit more than the 36% who disagree. ...

New York Times 8/3
Survey Finds Broad Anxiety Among Gulf Residents
When it comes to getting information about the BP oil spill, Gulf Coast residents trust Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana more than Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, and they trust Mr. Barbour more than President Obama. ...

Pew 8/3
Pork Could Help Candidates in Midterms
In the congressional elections this fall, candidates with a record of bringing government projects and money to their districts may have an edge. ...

USA Today 8/2
Waning support for Obama on wars
Public support for President Obama's Afghanistan war policy has plummeted amid a rising U.S. death toll and the unauthorized release of classified military documents, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows. ...

Gallup 8/2
GOP Resumes Favorable Standing on Generic Ballot
Registered voters favor Republicans by 48% and Democrats by 43% in Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the week of July 26 through Aug. 1. This follows two weeks when the numbers were nearly reversed. ...

ABC News 8/2
ABC News Polls: A Change in Management
Responsibilities of the ABC News Polling Unit were transferred today to Langer Research Associates, an independent company offering survey research management and consulting services. ...

Gallup 8/2
WY, MS, UT Rank as Most Conservative States
A majority of Wyoming, Mississippi, and Utah residents identified as conservative rather than moderate or liberal during the first half of 2010, making these the most politically conservative states in the U.S. The District of Columbia had the greatest percentage of liberals, along with four New England states: Rhode Island, Connecticut, Vermont, and Massachusetts. ...

Charlie Cook 7/30
A Turning Point For Democrats?
... One interpretation of recent results is that the momentum in this critical midterm election has shifted and the Republican wave has subsided. Another interpretation is that it's too soon to tell whether much has changed at all. ...

Gallup 7/30
TX Maintains Highest Number of Uninsured, MA Lowest
In Texas, Mississippi, and Louisiana, more residents (about 25%) are without health insurance than any other state in the nation so far in 2010. In Massachusetts, where state law includes an individual mandate requiring all residents older than 18 to carry health coverage, less than 5% were uninsured in the first half of this year. ...

Rhodes Cook 7/29
Playing Defense in a Recession
... A new president facing his first midterm election with declining approval ratings as his party struggles to keep the upper hand in Congress – all in the midst of a darkened political environment where the unemployment rate hovers around 10%. It is a description, however, of both past and present. ...

Center for American Progress 7/29
What Americans Want From Their Federal Government
... Americans want a federal government that is better, not smaller. CAP's new research shows people would rather improve government performance than reduce its size. ...

Gallup 7/29
Americans Look to Wealthy to Help Save Social Security
Of six possible ways to address concerns with the Social Security system in a recent USA Today/Gallup poll, a majority of Americans favor two, both of which would affect only wealthy Americans. ...

Kaiser: Drew Altman 7/29
Seniors and Health Reform
It is widely believed that seniors are antsy about the new health reform law. And there is heightened interest in how seniors feel about the law in the political world because they are more likely to vote in midterm elections. ...

Kaiser (pdf) 7/29
Health Tracking Poll
The share of the public with favorable views of the health reform law remained about the same this month, while unfavorable views trended downward. Half the public now expresses a favorable view of the law, while 35 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion. ...

PPIC (pdf) 7/29
In Big Shift, Californians Oppose Offshore Oil Drilling
Three months after a massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, Californians' support for more drilling off their coast has plunged, according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California. A solid majority of the state's residents now oppose more offshore drilling. ...

AP 7/27
A few cracks in Obama's Hispanic support
President Barack Obama's once solid support among Hispanics is showing a few cracks, a troubling sign for Democrats desperate to get this critical constituency excited about helping the party hold onto Congress this fall. ...

Gallup 7/27
Amid Immigration Debate, Americans' Views Ease
Americans remain more likely to say immigration should be decreased (45%) rather than kept at its present level (34%) or increased (17%), but the gap between the two most popular options has narrowed from a year ago. ...

Pew 7/27
Obama's Economic Policies Seen as Better than Bush's
While most Americans disapprove of Barack Obama's handling of the economy, far more think his administration's policies – rather than those of the Bush administration – would do more to improve economic conditions over the next few years. ...

Gallup 7/26
Democrats Maintain Advantage on Generic Ballot
Democrats have a 48% to 44% advantage for the week of July 19-25 in Gallup tracking of registered voters' preferences for the 2010 congressional elections. ...

Resurgent Republic 7/26
Battleground States Voters Oppose Tax Increases
Voters in the dozen states with 2010 U.S. Senate races designated as "toss ups" by the Cook Political Report overwhelmingly oppose tax increases scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2011, and do not believe Members of Congress should address important legislation in a lame duck session of Congress after the November elections, according to Resurgent Republic's analysis. ...

New York Times 7/26
Adding Punch to Influence Public Opinion
... In the last few weeks, a little-noticed nonprofit with big ideas about the persuasive power of movies and television shows quietly began an initiative aimed at getting filmmakers and others to use the insights and techniques of behavioral psychology in delivering social and political messages through their work. ...

Gallup 7/26
More States 'Competitive' in Terms of Party ID
More states are politically competitive this year than was the case in 2009, as fewer Americans nationwide identify with the Democratic Party. ...

Ronald Brownstein 7/24
The Gray And The Brown: The Generational Mismatch
In an age of diminished resources, the United States may be heading for an intensifying confrontation between the gray and the brown. Two of the biggest demographic trends reshaping the nation in the 21st century increasingly appear to be on a collision course that could rattle American politics for decades. ...

Sacramento Bee 7/23
California: Offshore oil drilling support erodes
In the midst of the worst oil-spill disaster in U.S. history, California voters' opinion of allowing new drilling off their coast took a nose dive from two years ago, according to a Field Poll released today. ...

Pew 7/22
Lost Income, Lost Friends -- and Loss of Self-Respect
Long-term unemployment takes a much deeper toll than short-term unemployment on a person's finances, emotional well-being and career prospects, according to a new Pew Research Center survey that explores the attitudes and experiences of workers who have lost jobs during the Great Recession. ...

Businessweek 7/22
Under Attack, Pollsters Debate Their Methods
... Polls are attracting attention because they increasingly feed an Internet-driven appetite for 24/7 political news. Negative poll numbers can deliver a fatal blow to candidates or make it difficult to raise money and build grassroots momentum. ...

CNN 7/22
Obama approval dips but not among blacks
President Barack Obama's approval rating among all Americans has dipped below 50 percent for the first time since March, but he remains extraordinarily popular among African-Americans, who also overwhelmingly approve of how the president has handled race relations, according to a new national poll. ...

Columbia Journalism Review 7/22
How do you know what a poll number is worth?
... While there's no exact step-by-step methodology to ensure a perfect poll across different populations and topics, there are certain best practices that news organizations commissioning polls would be wise to ensure their contractors are following. ...

Gallup 7/22
Congress Ranks Last in Confidence in Institutions
Gallup's 2010 Confidence in Institutions poll finds Congress ranking dead last out of the 16 institutions rated this year. ...

Mark Mellman 7/21
Where the polls are pointing
... Analysts routinely assume that enthusiasm equals turnout -- that lower levels of Democratic enthusiasm will translate into lower turnout among Democrats. Indeed, some pollsters actually incorporate survey responses on enthusiasm into likely voter models. Is the fixation on enthusiasm justified by data? ...

Gallup 7/21
Bill Clinton More Popular Than Barack Obama
Former President Bill Clinton is currently more well-liked by Americans than both of his successors. Sixty-one percent view him favorably, compared with 52% for President Barack Obama and 45% for former President George W. Bush. ...

Washington Post 7/20
Broad support for extending jobless benefits
... While the national public is closely divided as to whether the federal government should spend more money to try to boost the economy, more than six in 10 support extending jobless benefits to the long-term unemployed. ...

Pew 7/20
Economic Policies Seen as Boon for Banks, Big Business
The public sees clear winners and losers from the economic policies the government has implemented since the recession of 2008. Most Americans say these policies have helped large banks, large corporations and the wealthy, while providing little or no help for the poor, the middle class or small businesses. ...

USA Today 7/20
Faith in Social Security system tanking
Battered by high unemployment and record home foreclosures, most Americans seem to have lost faith in another fundamental part of their personal finances: Social Security. ...

Sacramento Bee 7/20
Narrow majority of California voters favor gay marriage
Despite the narrow passage of Proposition 8 in 2008, a slim majority of California registered voters favors allowing same-sex marriage, according to a Field Poll released today. ...

Gallup 7/19
Democrats Jump Into Six-Point Lead on Generic Ballot
In the same week the U.S. Senate passed a major financial reform bill touted as reining in Wall Street, Democrats pulled ahead of Republicans, 49% to 43%, in voters' generic ballot preferences for the 2010 congressional elections. ...

Democracy Corps 7/19
An Ideological Republican Grass-roots Movement
The "Tea Party" is very real and will have a big impact on this year's election and beyond – but it is important to correctly characterize this movement. The Tea Party is a grass-roots, intensely ideological, conservative Republican movement, fired up by Fox News and Glenn Beck. It is not remotely an independent or populist revolt against the elites or a working class revolt rooted in frustration with the recession, Wall Street and government. ...

Baltimore Sun 7/19
Partisan pollsters take on Maryland politics
... While financially struggling news organizations are less inclined to lay out money for the detailed independent surveys that once helped to set the campaign narrative, operations such as the conservative Magellan Strategies and its liberal counterpart, Public Policy Polling, are stepping in to fill the void. ...

Gallup 7/19
Obama's Highest Half-Year Approval Ratings in DC, HI
During the first half of 2010, residents of Hawaii and the District of Columbia were most likely to approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president. His lowest approval ratings came from Wyoming residents. ...

Chicago Tribune 7/17
Daley poll numbers sag, but no major challenger looms
More than half of Chicago voters say they don't want to see Mayor Richard Daley re-elected next year should he decide to run for a record seventh term, a new Tribune/WGN poll shows. ...

Howard Fineman 7/16
Obama's Indie Crash
... Obama's lead pollster, Joel Benenson, and veteran Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin have zeroed in recently on one particular slice of the 2010 electorate: what Obama senior counselor David Axelrod calls "indie men" -- independent male voters. ...

ABC 7/16
Approval of Afghan War Slips
Support for the war in Afghanistan has hit a new low and President Obama's approval rating for handling it has declined sharply since spring – results that portend trouble for the administration as the violence there grows. ...

DNC: Brad Woodhouse 7/15
Putting Voter Sentiment and Recent Polls in Perspective
While history would suggest that the 2010 elections stand to be challenging for Democrats, a variety of recent polls suggest that the barriers to success for Democratic candidates this year may not be as high as some have suggested. ...

Time 7/15
Voters Like Obama, Not His Policies
As he juggles the demands of a moribund recovery, multiple foreign conflicts and the reverberations of a catastrophic oil spill, President Obama still has more supporters than opponents. ... And yet the President's popularity is at odds with the stinging appraisals of many of his signature policies, which lead 56% of voters to say the U.S. is on the wrong track. ...

Pew 7/15
Well Known: Twitter; Little Known: John Roberts
An overwhelming proportion of Americans are familiar with Twitter, the online information-sharing network. ... Yet the public continues to struggle in identifying political figures, foreign leaders and even knowing facts about key government policies. ...

Thomas F. Schaller 7/15
Republicans' Regional Recipe
... How much does the caucus Speaker Nancy Pelosi shepherds into this year's midterms differ geographically from the one then-Speaker Tom Foley led to the slaughter in 1994? Where would Republican this November need to flip seats, and how many, in order to forge a new majority? ...

Bloomberg 7/15
Americans Disapproving Obama May Enable GOP Gains
Americans disapprove of U.S. President Barack Obama's handling of almost every major issue and are deeply pessimistic about the nation's direction, offering a bullish environment for Republicans in the November congressional elections. ...

ABC 7/15
Gulf Coast Residents Oppose Drilling Moratorium
Gulf Coast residents reported serious economic, environmental and emotional fallout from the BP oil spill, with vast majorities concerned about long-term negative effects on the area's tourism, seafood safety and more. ...

Washington Post: Chris Cillizza 7/14
Obama's erosion among white voters continues
The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows President Obama's standing among white voters continuing to slip, a potentially ominous sign for his party with the midterm elections fast approaching. ...

Bloomberg 7/14
Majority See More Jobless as Deficit Widens
More than 7 out of 10 Americans say the economy is mired in recession, and the country is conflicted over how to balance concerns over joblessness and the federal budget deficit, according to a Bloomberg National Poll. ...

CBS 7/14
Americans Say Bad Economy Will Linger
A majority of Americans have a negative impression of the economy and expect the effects of the recession to linger for years, according to a new CBS News poll. ...

David Hill 7/14
Baby boomer cohort may find its roots
Cohort analysis is one of the most interesting approaches to poll scrutiny. It assumes that a group of voters in a particular age bracket may hold common views or act similarly in politics, usually because of some shared experience. ...

Washington Post 7/13
Confidence in Obama reaches new low
... Four months before midterm elections that will define the second half of his term, nearly six in 10 voters say they lack faith in the president to make the right decisions for the country, and a clear majority once again disapproves of how he is dealing with the economy. ...

Pew 7/13
Wish List for Congress: Jobs and Deficit Reduction
The public overwhelmingly views the job situation as a major priority for Congress during the coming months. Fully 80% say it is very important for Congress to pass legislation to address the job situation. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 7/12
The NAACP, the Tea Party and the Question of Racism
The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People is reported today to be considering a resolution condemning the Tea Party movement for racism within its ranks. While our data don't speak to views at the individual level, in the broadest, population-based sense, we don't see it. ...

Washington Post 7/12
Spill fails to produce gains for U.S. environmentalists
... The difference between now and the awakenings that followed past disasters is as stark as "on versus off," said Anthony Leiserowitz, a researcher at Yale University who tracks public opinion on climate change. "People's outrage is focused on BP," Leiserowitz said. The spill "hasn't been automatically connected to some sense that there's something more fundamental wrong with our relationship with the natural world," he said. ...

Joe Keohane 7/11
How facts backfire
... "Area Man Passionate Defender Of What He Imagines Constitution To Be," read a recent Onion headline. Like the best satire, this nasty little gem elicits a laugh, which is then promptly muffled by the queasy feeling of recognition. ...

Ezra Klein  7/11
It's Always the Economy, Stupid
... For decades now, political scientists have been building election models that attempt to predict who will win in November without making any reference to candidates or campaigns. They can get within 2 points of the final vote, and they don't need to know anything about the ads and the gaffes and the ground games. All they really need to know about is the economy. ...

Washington Post 7/10
'Don't ask' survey draws fire
A Defense Department survey sent this week to 400,000 service members asks such provocative questions as whether its troops have shared shower facilities with a gay person or if they would be comfortable using a base commissary if their neighbors were gay. ...

Gallup 7/9
Americans Oppose Suit Against Ariz. Immigration Law
Americans' initial reactions to the U.S. Justice Department lawsuit against Arizona's new illegal immigration law are more negative than positive, by a 50% to 33% margin. ...

Resurgent Republic 7/8
Independents Support Conservative Policies
With Independent voters siding overwhelmingly with Republican voters again in our latest survey, conservative and market-oriented policies now consistently trump the liberal and government-oriented policies pursued by President Obama and the Democrats in Congress. ...

Gallup 7/8
Blacks' Optimism About Standards of Living Tops Whites'
Blacks' ratings on Gallup's Standard of Living Index continue to exceed those for whites, a pattern that has persisted since early 2009. ...

Washington Post 7/8
Independents' weakening support of Obama, Congress
Of all the problems Democrats face this fall, none may be more challenging than trying to win back the support of independent voters. President Obama has been going backward with independents for more than a year, and the Democrats stand to suffer the effects in the November elections. ...

America's Voice 7/8
Public Opinion and the Arizona Immigration Law
A number of media-sponsored polls have showed public support for the Arizona law while many of the same polls have showed even more public support for comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship. What gives? ...

Media Matters for America 7/8
McClatchy D.C. Bureau Cuts Polling, Follows Trend
McClatchy Newspapers has long been praised for keeping its Washington, D.C., bureau largely intact despite budget cutbacks and diminishing resources. But one longtime element of its coverage is disappearing in the coming weeks: polling. ...

Mark Mellman 7/7
Is America no longer number one?
In the midst of the day-to-day struggles Americans face to retain the dignity that comes with work, to keep food on tables, roofs overhead and medicines in cabinets, something broader has been lost. A country that defined itself by its uniqueness, that exalted in being No. 1, is no longer the strongest economy in the world in the eyes of its citizens. ...

Nate Silver 7/6
A Note to John Zogby
Dear John: I don't really have the time or the energy to get involved in another Big Fight right now, so I'm not going to respond in great detail to your long note to me at Huffington Post, other than to say that some parts would have benefited from a fact-check. ...

John Zogby 7/6
A Note to Nate
To Nate Silver: Congratulations to you. You have gained a lot of attention and are on the threshold of attaining even more. ... Here is some advice from someone who has been where you are today. ...

Gallup 7/6
Americans Divided Over Immigration Reform Priority
As President Barack Obama renews his call for a comprehensive approach to addressing illegal immigration, Americans are about equally divided -- 50% to 45% -- over whether the government's main focus should be on halting the flow of illegal immigrants coming into the U.S., or on developing a plan to deal with those already here. ...

Gallup 7/5
Tea Party Supporters' Top Concerns
Self-described Tea Party supporters differ from those neutral or opposed to the movement on the issues they perceive as threats to the future of the United States, most notably federal government debt and the size and power of the federal government. ...

Washington Post 7/4
Heartland sees little need for a political insurrection
... States like Missouri and its industrial heartland neighbors are different from the South and the West, where the major parties have lost a spate of early primaries this year to upstarts with more radical, anti-Washington views. ... [S]hrill, style-over-substance campaigning alone doesn't often go over as well in this part of the country, and "tea party" candidates have not found as much success. ...

New York Times: Charles M. Blow 7/3
Rise of the Religious Left
Which political party's members are most likely to believe that Jesus will definitely return to earth before midcentury? The Republicans, right? Wrong. The Democrats. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 7/2
Running With Scissors
There’s a lesson in the dispute between the polling outfit Research 2000 and the website Daily Kos that broke into a firestorm this week, but I'm not sure the commentary to date has nailed it. Transparency, to me, is not the prime issue. Due diligence is. ...

Gallup 7/2
Tea Party Supporters Overlap Republican Base
There is significant overlap between Americans who identify as supporters of the Tea Party movement and those who identify as conservative Republicans. Their similar ideological makeup and views suggest that the Tea Party movement is more a rebranding of core Republicanism than a new or distinct entity on the American political scene. ...

Pew 7/1
Voting Intentions Even, Turnout Indicators Favor GOP
With four months to go before Election Day, voting intentions for the House remain closely divided, and neither party has gained or lost much ground over the course of 2010. However, Republicans are much more engaged in the coming election and more inclined to say they are certain to vote than are Democrats. ...

Alan I. Abramowitz 7/1
California Dreaming
California voters recently approved a ballot initiative that would drastically alter the Golden State's election system. ... But how realistic is the claim that the new primary system will reduce partisan polarization and gridlock? ...

Siena College (pdf) 7/1
American Presidents: Greatest and Worst
For the fifth time since its inception in 1982, the Siena College Research Institute's Survey of U.S. Presidents finds that experts rank Franklin D. Roosevelt as the top all time chief executive. ...

Pew 7/1
Gender Equality Embraced, Inequalities Acknowledged
Fifteen years after the United Nations Fourth World Conference on Women's Beijing Platform for Action proclaimed that "shared power and responsibility should be established between women and men at home, in the workplace and in the wider national and international communities," people around the globe embrace the document's key principles. ...

Gallup 7/1
Independent Voters Favor GOP in 2010 Election Tracking
By an average 10 percentage-point margin since March, 45% to 35%, independent registered voters have consistently preferred the Republican to the Democrat when asked which congressional candidate they would vote for in their district. ...

Kaiser Family Foundation (pdf) 6/30
Kaiser Health Tracking Poll
The start of summer finds the new health reform law continuing to divide the American public, although favorable views of the legislation have bumped up seven percentage points since May to settle at 48 percent in June. ...

Daily Kos: Markos Moulitsas 6/29
Research 2000
I have just published a report by three statistics wizards showing, quite convincingly, that the weekly Research 2000 State of the Nation poll we ran the past year and a half was likely bunk. ... While the investigation didn't look at all of Research 2000 polling conducted for us, fact is I no longer have any confidence in any of it, and neither should anyone else. ...

John Kenneth White 6/29
America's new electorate
The summer of 2010 is not a happy time for Barack Obama. An uncontrollable oil spill, unemployment hovering near the 10 percent mark, and a war without end in Afghanistan have left Obama's job approval ratings at or below 50 percent. ...

Gallup 6/29
Majority Favor Obama's Afghanistan Timetable
A majority of Americans (58%) favor President Barack Obama's timetable that calls for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan beginning in July 2011. ...

Pew 6/29
Variety Of Options For Fixing State Budgets Rejected
Most Americans see the deteriorating budget situations in many states as a problem that the states themselves – rather than the federal government – should solve ...

USA Today 6/28
Public supports firing of Gen. McChrystal
Most Americans approve of President Obama's decision to oust Gen. Stanley McChrystal as commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and they support the White House timetable to begin withdrawing from the nation's longest war next year. ...

Washington Post: Chris Cillizza 6/28
Anger doesn't tell whole story of 2010 election season
Angry voters are everywhere. Watch any cable news chat show, read any political blog or peruse the pages of any major newspaper and you will be bombarded with headlines about how the American electorate is mad as hell and not going to take it anymore. But is all the coverage right? ...

New York Times: Charles M. Blow 6/26
Take the Long View
This was the week that Democrats cried and Republicans cackled. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey released this week was chock-full of bad news for the left. ...

Ronald Brownstein 6/25
Sinking Ship Of State
... With economic recovery still slow, polls show that Republicans have convinced many Americans that Obama's agenda has failed because it stifled job-creating innovation under government spending, regulation, and excessive intervention in the free market. ...

Gallup 6/25
Conservatives Still Outnumber Moderates, Liberals
Conservatives have maintained their leading position among U.S. ideological groups in the first half of 2010. ...

Pew 6/24
Obama's Ratings Little Affected by Recent Turmoil
Since the beginning of this year, President Obama has signed a controversial health care measure, coped with a stubbornly high jobless rate, and struggled to manage the largest environmental disaster in the nation’s history. In that period, Obama's overall job approval rating has moved from 49% to 48%. ...

ABC News: Mike Mokrzycki 6/24
Financial Reform: More Say Toughen Up
More Americans see proposed new regulations of the financial industry as too weak rather than too strong, a message of possible interest to congressional negotiators as they seek to complete their work on the reform package. ...

Ruy Teixeira (pdf) 6/24
Demographic Change and the Future of the Parties
The tectonic plates of American politics are shifting. A powerful concatenation of demographic forces is transforming the American electorate and reshaping both major political parties. And, as demographic trends continue, this transformation and reshaping will deepen. ...

Rhodes Cook 6/24
For House Democrats: More Favorable Terrain Than '94
When the Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives in 1994, one of their main problems was the political terrain on which they had to fight. While many political observers find the present electoral environment to be eerily similar with that of 1994, not nearly as many House Democrats are as exposed as they were then. ...

MSNBC 6/24
Spill drags the president's rating down
Two months of oil continuing to gush from a well off the Gulf Coast, as well as an unemployment rate still near 10 percent, have taken a toll on President Barack Obama and his standing with the American public, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. ...

H. Stuart Elway 6/23
Bloviating aside, election will be decided by who votes
The story line for this year's elections among the national commentariat is that anger-fueled resurrection is afoot. Torches are being lit, pitchforks hoisted. Many bums are about to be thrown out of office -- mostly Democrats. ...

Mark Mellman 6/23
50 the magic number for Obama
As a pollster, I spend half my time telling people there are no magic numbers. There is no job performance or favorability rating above which victory is inevitable and below which defeat is certain. ...

David Hill 6/23
Don't let bad polls rain on your parade
Members of Congress and other elected incumbents everywhere are being fooled by a phenomenon known to statisticians as ecological fallacy. ...

Gallup 6/22
Verdict on health care reform bill still divided
The health care reform legislation Congress passed in late March divided the public then and has not gained significant support in the three months since. ...

Pew 6/22
Public Sees a Future Full of Promise and Peril
Imagine a future in which cancer becomes a memory, ordinary people travel in space, and computers carry on conversations like humans. Now imagine a darker future – a world beset by war, rising temperatures and energy shortages, one where the United States faces a terrorist attack with nuclear weapons. ...

Pew 6/22
Public Uncertain About How to Improve Job Situation
There is broad public agreement that past government policies intended to address the financial crisis and recession have not worked. At the same time, there is very little agreement about what the government should do now to deal with the nation's biggest economic concern – the job situation. ...

New York Times 6/22
Deep Concern About Energy and Economy
Overwhelmingly, Americans think the nation needs a fundamental overhaul of its energy policies, and most expect alternative forms to replace oil as a major source within 25 years. ...

Phil Trounstine & Jerry Roberts 6/21
In politics, being a woman doesn't mean much
The dual nomination of Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina for governor and U.S. Senate in the state Republican primary was a historic event, but the candidates' gender is unlikely to help them much in the November election. ...

Gallup 6/21
GOP Midterm Voting Enthusiasm Tops Prior Years
An average of 59% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have said they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year compared with past elections, the highest average Gallup has found in a midterm election year for either party since the question was first asked in 1994. ...

NPR 6/19
Pollsters Need Cell Phone Users More Than Ever
... The good old days (as recently as the 2008 presidential campaign), when reaching Mr. and Mrs. John Q. Public at home on a landline could still produce a credible survey, are history. ...

New York Times: Charles Blow 6/19
The Thrill Is Gone
President Obama's relationship with America, like many a young marriage, is growing sour. That's my surmise after reviewing recent polling and watching the carping that followed his Oval Office speech (which I thought was just fine, by the way). ...

William Galston 6/18
Prepare Yourselves for Speaker Boehner
Earth to House Democrats: It's time to push the panic button. But don't take my word for it; consider the evidence. ...

Star Tribune 6/18
MN: Republicans go after Horner over polling data
State Republicans renewed their attempt Thursday to see whether Independence Party candidate Tom Horner should have compensated a polling firm for allegedly getting polling data in advance. ...

Alan Abramowitz 6/17
Can Republicans Take Back the House?
... There are some striking similarities between the mood of the American people today and the mood of the country 16 years ago. The most important similarity is that President Obama, like President Clinton in 1994, has seen his approval ratings fall below 50 percent which is generally considered the danger zone for an incumbent president and his party. ...

Pew 6/17
Obama More Popular Abroad Than At Home
... President Barack Obama remains popular in most parts of the world. ... In turn, opinions of the U.S., which improved markedly in 2009 in response to Obama's new presidency, also have remained far more positive than they were for much of George W. Bush's tenure. ...

Gallup 6/17
Americans Back More Stimulus Spending to Create Jobs
Among four pieces of legislation Congress could consider this year, Americans are most supportive of authorizing more economic stimulus spending. ...

Gallup 6/17
Economy, Oil Spill Rank as Most Important Problems
The ongoing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has catapulted "natural disaster response and relief" into the top five of Gallup's monthly "most important problem" list. ...

Washington Post 6/17
Most Americans back new Arizona law
Most Americans support the new, controversial Arizona law that gives police there the power to check the residency status of suspected illegal immigrants. ...

Gallup 6/16
Many Say Gulf Beaches, Wildlife Will Never Recover
From what they have seen of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill rolling onto America's shores, nearly half of Americans (49%) believe that at least some of the affected beaches will never recover. Even more, 59%, believe normal levels for some animal species will never be restored. ...

Patrick J. Egan (pdf) 6/15
Polling on same-sex ballot measures
Since 1998, ballot measures regarding the legal status of same-sex couples have been placed before voters in 33 states. To what extent did voter intention change over the course of these campaigns? And how well did polls predict ultimate election results? ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 6/15
On the Oil Spill, Obama's Slippery Slope
In covering the president's address tonight it may be tempting to say the government's response to the Gulf oil spill has damaged his approval ratings overall. There's no evidence that this is so – but plenty that risks abound. ...

NPR 6/15
Tough Road Ahead For Democrats
A new public opinion survey for NPR shows just how difficult it will be for Democrats to avoid big losses in the House this November. ...

USA Today 6/15
Oil spill's economic impact worries public
Americans overwhelmingly view the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico as an economic and environmental catastrophe that will reverberate for a decade and more, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds. ...

New York Times: John Harwood 6/15
Criticism Flowing Like Oil, but Obama's Rating Is Steady
Oil has gushed into the Gulf of Mexico for eight weeks now -- and sent a bipartisan wave of criticism crashing into the White House. ... In other words, the crisis in the gulf has become a first-class political crisis, too. Right? ...

Pew 6/14
Public Remains of Two Minds on Energy Policy
With the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico now nearly two months old, the public is sending mixed signals about U.S. energy policy. ...

New York Times 6/13
In Politics, the Sun Rises in the West
The West may not be the geographic center of the country, but these days it sits at the heart of its political culture. ... The marriage of the region's political volatility and its historical relationship to some of the toughest issues being pondered nationwide -- immigration, natural resources and energy, the appropriate reach of federal government -- have made it a mirror held up to the current political psyche. ...

Washington Post 6/11
Most Americans support Kagan's nomination
Nearly six in 10 Americans say the Senate should vote to confirm U.S. Solicitor General Elena Kagan's nomination to the Supreme Court, but most also want her to answer questions about how she would have decided past cases and to reveal her stand on legal abortion. ..

ABC News: Gary Langer 6/10
Broad Public Backing for Greenhouse Gas Regulation
With a challenge in Congress up for a vote today, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds broad public support for federal regulation of greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to reduce global warming. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 6/9
In Spill's Aftermath, Support for Drilling Declines
Public support for oil drilling has declined in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon spill, with little backing specifically for the increased offshore drilling President Obama proposed barely a month before the spill began. ...

Jon A. Krosnick 6/9
The Climate Majority
... [N]ational surveys released during the last eight months have been interpreted as showing that fewer and fewer Americans believe that climate change is real, human-caused and threatening to people. But a closer look at these polls and a new survey by my Political Psychology Research Group show just the opposite ....

Mark Mellman 6/9
BP, Katrina: A world of difference
Is the BP spill President Obama's Katrina? To ask the question is to raise doubts in the public mind -- doubts about competence and empathy -- doubts that may not even have entered the public consciousness were they not planted by Republican critics and their sometimes unwitting accomplices in the media. ...

David Hill 6/9
Importance of Whitman and Fiorina
The importance of the California victories of Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina cannot be exaggerated. The fact that these two candidates now threaten to overcome California's Democrat-registration advantage should offer hope and inspiration to Republicans everywhere, particularly to GOP women seeking office as well as to candidates from the business community. ...

Bloomberg 6/8
Investors Pick U.S. Over BRICs in Bloomberg User Poll
The U.S. has supplanted China and Brazil as the most attractive market for investors as confidence in the global economic recovery wanes in the wake of the Greek debt crisis. ...

Washington Post 6/8
Support for members of Congress is at an all-time low
As voters head to the polls Tuesday for a crucial set of primary elections, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds antipathy toward their elected officials rising and anti-incumbent sentiment at an all-time high. ...

ABC News 6/8
The Frustration Index: What's Bugging America
Starting today on Good Morning America, ABC News is reporting a new measure of public discontent in this country, something we're calling America's Frustration Index. The bottom line: Fueled by political and economic discontent alike, it's running high. ...

Gallup 6/8
Newcomers Favored Over Congressional Incumbents
Registered voters are nearly twice as likely to say they would rather vote for a congressional candidate with no prior experience in Congress as to say they would vote for one who has previously served in Congress. ...

Pew 6/8
Doubts About Obama's Economic Policies Rise
The public increasingly sees Barack Obama’s policies as having an impact on economic conditions and, for the first time, slightly more say the impact has been negative rather than positive. ...

Washington Post 6/7
Negative ratings for BP, federal government
Americans overwhelmingly see the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico as a major environmental disaster, and most want the federal government to pursue criminal charges against BP and its drilling partners, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

Gallup 6/7
Hispanics' Approval of Obama Drops in 2010
Hispanics' approval of President Barack Obama's job performance slipped to 57% in May, after falling from 69% in January to 64% in February. By contrast, whites' and blacks' approval of the president has been steady throughout 2010. ...

Bruce E. Cain, Berkeley 6/5
Five myths about California politics
Tuesday is Election Day in California, with primary races for governor and U.S. Senate that have received much national attention. But when it comes to national politics, is California a bellwether, an outlier, a mirror, or a little of each? From a distance, appearances can be deceiving. ...

Democracy Corps / Third Way 6/3
Toward Renewal and Leadership
As President Obama issues his new national security strategy, a new Democracy Corps-Third Way survey shows the president continues to earn stronger marks on national security than on the economy or on his overall approval. ...

Alan I. Abramowitz 6/3
The Gulf Oil Spill as Obama's Katrina
... Whether the Gulf oil spill will do serious long-term damage to President Obama's public support remains to be seen. Thus far, however, there is little evidence that it has hurt the president's approval rating. ...

Wall Street Journal 6/3
Facing Off at the Polls: Pollsters
... Going into the June 8 primaries, politicos statewide are watching the PPIC and Field Poll for hints at who will prevail, especially in the matchups for the Republican gubernatorial and Senate nominations. ...

Public Agenda 6/2
Are We Beginning To See The Light?
Americans are convinced that math and science skills are crucial for the future, with strong majorities who say there will be more jobs and college opportunities for students with those skills, according to a new Public Agenda survey. ...

Gallup 6/2
Republicans Move Ahead in Generic Ballot for Congress
Gallup tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences shows Republicans moving back ahead of Democrats, 49% to 43%, by two points their largest lead of the campaign to date. ...

David Hill 6/2
Prop 14 and California Republicans
California is voting on a ballot measure next week, Prop 14, to adopt a nonpartisan or blanket primary system in which voters from both parties run in the same first primary, narrowing the field to the top two candidates, regardless of partisan affiliation. ...

Gallup 6/1
Both Parties' Favorable Ratings Near Record Lows
Americans' favorable ratings of the Democratic and Republican parties are near record lows for each. ...

Los Angeles Times 5/31
California voters back pot legalization
California voters, by a modest margin, think they should be allowed to grow and consume marijuana, according to a new poll that also found more than 1 in 3 voters had tried pot and more than 1 in 10 had lit up in the past year. ...

Los Angeles Times 5/30
CA: Whitman expands primary lead; Fiorina pulls away
After plummeting in recent polls, Republican Meg Whitman has regained her commanding lead in the race for governor over her primary opponent Steve Poizner, but their contentious assaults have helped reverse the general election edge she once held over Democrat Jerry Brown, a new Los Angeles Times/USC poll has found. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 5/28
The Funny Thing About Anger
Anger is a funny thing. Measurement of public "anger," that is. It can produce wildly different results. ...

Gallup 5/27
Oil Spill Alters Views on Environmental Protection
Between March and today, with the Gulf of Mexico oil spill intervening, Americans' preferences for prioritizing between environmental protection and energy production have shifted from a somewhat pro-energy stance to an even stronger pro-environment stance. ...

USA Today 5/27
Obama, feds: Failing grade on oil spill response
The oil spill off the Gulf Coast is staining more than Louisiana's beaches. The response to the disaster by energy giant BP, President Obama and the federal government all get terrible grades from Americans in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. ...

MSNBC: Mark Murray 5/26
On immigration, racial divide runs deep
White and Latino Americans are deeply divided over immigration, their allegiances to the nation's political parties and their opinions about President Barack Obama, according to a new NBC/MSNBC/Telemundo poll.

CBS News 5/26
Americans Pessimistic, Dissatisfied with Washington
Americans are frustrated with nearly everyone in Washington - including President Obama, Congress, and the Democratic and Republican parties - and have become increasingly pessimistic about what the future holds, according to a new CBS News poll. ...

Mark Mellman 5/26
Navigating troubled waters
... Strong ratings don't provide immunity. Once upon a time, incumbents with high favorability and performance ratings did not lose elections (except to those with much higher ratings). Not so anymore. ...

Pew 5/25
Willingness to Compromise a Plus in Midterms
Many Americans say they will look less favorably this fall at congressional candidates who supported the federal bailout of major banks and financial institutions in response to the 2008 financial crisis. ...

Gallup 5/24
Opposition to Gay Marriage Eases Slightly
Opponents of legalizing same-sex marriage continue to outnumber supporters in the United States, by 53% to 44%. However, opposition is now tied for the lowest Gallup has measured. Support was slightly higher, at 46%, in 2007. ...

Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro 5/23
All Victory Is Local
... The Pennsylvania special election was an important reminder that riding the wave of voter discontent might not be enough for Republicans this fall. ...

Kaiser Family Foundation (pdf) 5/21
Kaiser Health Tracking Poll
... Overall the basic shape of opinion on the reform law is unchanged, with the nation still firmly divided along partisan lines, but the May Kaiser health tracking survey does pick up some lessening of enthusiasm. ...

William Galston 5/21
A single Democratic victory doesn't change anything
Conventional wisdom: it is a fickle, fickle thing. The latest example of the incredible lightness of opinion in today's media and political climate is the reaction to the results of the race in Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district. ...

Gallup 5/21
Obama white gender gap widens with education
Approval of President Barack Obama among white U.S. adults has held fairly steady around the 41% mark in 2010, after a gradual decline from 62% in January 2009. At the same time, a gender gap among whites, averaging six percentage points, has persisted throughout Obama's presidency. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 5/20
The Tea Party and racial prejudice
Rand Paul's equivocal position on desegregation in private business raises a sensitive issue for the Tea Party movement; our polling's found that many of its critics suspect that racial prejudice is a significant factor in its support. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 5/19
Good news for incumbents
You wouldn't know it from the morning papers, but there was some good news for incumbents yesterday. ... For the first time in six years, more people said the economy was improving than said it was getting worse. ...

Mark S. Mellman 5/19
The public attitude's four antis
... [T]he fundamental contours of public attitudes shaping this year's electoral environment are already etched in bold relief. They can be summarized, in part, as the four antis: anti-politics; anti-incumbent; anti-establishment; and (I am sorry to say) anti-Democratic. ...

David Hill 5/19
AAPOR updates poll standards
AAPOR, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, wrapped up its 65th annual conference in Chicago last week. A meeting highlight was the announcement of the membership's approval of a revised Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. ...

Pew Research Center 5/19
Congressional Connection Poll
The public views tougher regulations on financial institutions as an important priority for Congress, but far more want Congress to take action on the job situation and energy policy. ...

Andrew Levison 5/18
The Democrats' major problem
... In order to seriously evaluate the potential of either a populist political strategy or some alternative approach to win the support of ordinary working Americans it is necessary to begin by recognizing that any political strategy aimed at this objective must inevitably be based on some underlying model of how ordinary workers think-- of how they process, store and organize political ideas and opinions. ...

Washington Post 5/18
Language lessons for Democrats
Democrats should not talk about "the environment," "the unemployed" or "the uninsured." Instead, they should replace those phrases with ones that have more appeal to voters, such as "the air we breathe and the water we drink," "people who've lost their jobs" and "people who used to have insurance." ...

New York Times: John Harwood 5/17
Angry Voters, but How Many?
... Mark Gersh, who provides targeting data to Democratic candidates at the National Committee for an Effective Congress, sees several challenges for his party. One is defections to Republicans among important constituencies, including independents, suburban women and small-town voters. ...

Stanley Greenberg 5/17
Appetite for Change? UK Post-Election Analysis
This unique post-election poll goes deep on the reasons why voters voted as they did last Thursday and their hopes for the future and Britain. ...

Washington Post 5/15
Toyota had attack plan against congressional testimony
Toyota officials sought to develop a public relations campaign to attack the credibility of key witnesses who have testified before Congress about acceleration problems with the company's cars, according to documents provided to the House committee investigating the automaker. The effort was based in part on polling conducted for Toyota by Joel Benenson, President Obama's chief pollster. ...

MSNBC 5/13
Despite spill, support for oil drilling high
Drill, baby, drill. Even after the recent — and highly publicized — oil spill in the Gulf Coast, that's the overwhelming sentiment from the public, with six in 10 Americans supporting more offshore drilling, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. ...

Washington Post 5/13
Higher black voting rates in '08 mostly occurred in South
A sharp rise in African American voting rates in the 2008 presidential election was largely a Southern phenomenon, according to a Census analysis of voting patterns released Wednesday. ...

Pew Research Center 5/12
Broad Approval For New Arizona Immigration Law
The public broadly supports a new Arizona law aimed at dealing with illegal immigration and the law's provisions giving police increased powers to stop and detain people who are suspected of being in the country illegally. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 5/12
Nearly a Quarter of Adults are Now Cell-Phone Only
Just shy of 23 percent of American adults now use cell phones only – a new high, although the rate of growth in this population in the last half of 2009 was its slowest in federal data since mid-2007. ...

David Hill 5/12
Dems might lose women over economy
... Young women, the slice of the electorate across all states that has been most likely to self-identify as liberal and Democrat for more than a decade, has been transformed by recession. ...

CBS News 5/12
Support for More Offshore Oil Drilling Plummets
In the wake of the growing environmental disaster brought about by the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, Americans have turned far less supportive of increased drilling for oil and natural gas off the U.S. coastline, according to a new CBS News survey. ...

Pew Research Center 5/11
Oil Spill Seen As Ecological Disaster
A majority of Americans see the massive oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico as a major environmental disaster, but nearly as many voice optimism that efforts to control the spill will succeed. ...

Gallup 5/11
Approval Continues to Show Party, Age, Race Gaps
President Barack Obama's approval ratings remain polarized by political party and race, and continue to show a significant gap between younger and older Americans. ...

Gallup 5/10
Broad, Steady Support for Openly Gay Service Members
A large majority of Americans (70%) continue to favor allowing openly gay men and women to serve in the military, with continued majority support from every key demographic subgroup. ...

Gallup 5/10
Holland, Mich., Metro Area Best at Meeting Basic Needs
Among the 187 U.S. metro areas Gallup and Healthways surveyed in 2009, Holland-Grand Haven, Mich., led the nation in providing basic necessities -- such as safe places to exercise and easy access to fresh fruits and vegetables -- to its residents. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 5/9
Ahead of Karzai's Visit, a Division on the War
Hamid Karzai's visit to Washington this week may not bring out adoring throngs: The war in Afghanistan remains problematic in U.S. public opinion, with just more than half of Americans saying it's not been worth fighting. ...

New York Times 5/9
Population Study Finds Change in the Suburbs
As the first decade of the 21st century comes to a close, more black, Asian, Hispanic, foreign-born and poor people live in the suburbs of the nation's largest metropolitan areas than in their primary cities. ...

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner / MoveOn.org (pdf) 5/7
The Next Supreme Court Justice
President Obama's nominee will be vetted on experience, scholarship, ideology, judicial philosophy, and a host of other issues. But what average voters most want is a nominee willing to stand up for average people, a nominee who will ensure a fair hearing even against the most moneyed and powerful corporations and individuals. ...

Ronald Brownstein 5/7
No Thaw Yet For Obama
Analysts increasingly see signs of a spring thaw in the economy. But for now at least, the public's assessments of President Obama's management of the economy and his overall performance remain essentially frozen in place. ...

Public Agenda 5/6
Public Policy & The Public Mood
Is the American public in the midst of a fundamental change of attitude, in which we are becoming so partisan that it is less and less likely that we can come together in dialogue on public policy problems and work together on solutions? Daniel Yankelovich, co-founder and chairman of Public Agenda and a pioneering social scientist whose work laid the foundation for much of the public opinion research that is done today, doesn't think so. ...

Democracy Corps 5/6
How to Survive 2010
Democrats need to make substantial political progress in the next six months. The basic problem is math. Currently independent voters prefer Republicans over Democrats by two to one in congressional trial heats. ...

Karl Rove 5/6
Exit polls
Let's get rid of exit polls. I hate 'em. On Election Day, the news media endows exit polls -- surveys asking people whom they voted for and why -- with false scientific precision. And their early release often generates off-base projections and misleading coverage, which can affect the contests themselves. ...

Alan I. Abramowitz 5/6
Health Care as an Issue in the Midterm Election
... In this article I examine the potential influence of health care reform as an issue in the 2010 midterm election. ...

Gallup 5/5
GOP Advantage in 2010 Voting Enthusiasm Shrinks
Republican registered voters' enthusiasm about voting in this year's midterm elections has declined significantly in recent weeks. As a result, Republicans' advantage over Democrats on this measure has shrunk from 19 points in early April to 10 points in the latest weekly aggregate. ...

Washington Post 5/5
Tea party platform fares best among GOP conservatives
The conservative "tea party" movement appeals almost exclusively to supporters of the Republican Party, bolstering the view that the tea party divides the GOP even as it has energized its base. ...

Washington Post 5/5
Tea party groups battling perceptions of racism
As several states with active "tea party" groups prepare to hold important primary elections this month, the movement is struggling to overcome accusations of racism that are tinting perceptions of this loose network of conservatives. ...

CBS News 5/5
Most Say Sex Abuse by Priests Remains a Problem
Most Americans, including Catholics, believe the Vatican has done a poor job handing child sexual abuse by priests, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. ...

Resurgent Republic 5/4
Independents Move Closer to Republicans
In the year since Resurgent Republic conducted its inaugural survey in April 2009, President Obama and Democrats in Congress have seen dramatic deterioration of their public standing, driven by disaffection from Independent voters who have steadily moved toward siding with Republican policymakers on fiscal, domestic and national security policies. ...

Pew Research Center 5/4
'Socialism' Not So Negative, 'Capitalism' Not So Positive
"Socialism" is a negative for most Americans, but certainly not all Americans. "Capitalism" is regarded positively by a majority of the public, though it is a thin majority. ...

Rutgers (pdf) 5/4
No End in Sight: The Agony of Prolonged Unemployment
... Despite positive signs of economic growth and a rising stock market, millions of unemployed Americans see no end to the Great Recession that wrecked their finances and threw their lives into turmoil. ...

USA Today 5/4
Sympathy on immigration, desire for secure borders
Two-thirds of Americans want the government to do a better job of securing the borders, but they are sympathetic to illegal immigrants who have been working hard and staying out of trouble, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds. ...

New York Times 5/4
Most in U.S. Want Overhaul of Immigration Laws
The overwhelming majority of Americans think the country's immigration policies need to be seriously overhauled. And despite protests against Arizona's stringent new immigration enforcement law, a majority of Americans support it, even though they say it may lead to racial profiling. ...

Jordan Ellenberg 5/1
The census will be wrong. We could fix it.
Starting today, thousands of census workers will scour the country, town by town and block by block, trying to identify which addresses have residents and how many they have. The workers' goal: to combine these numbers into a precise reckoning of the American population. As always, they will fail. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 4/30
Drilling Down: Attitudes on Offshore Oil
Two competing concerns inform public attitudes on offshore oil drilling – one economic, but the other, also powerful, environmental. ...

Democracy Corps (pdf) 4/30
The Conservative Shift Among Independents
... Since the Democrats’ high-point in late 2006, a 15-point lead on the Congressional vote among independents has become a 17-point deficit. Meanwhile, independents are now identifying as conservatives at a rate higher than ever before. Why is that? ...

New York Times: Gary Wolf 4/30
The Data-Driven Life
Humans make errors. ... We make decisions with partial information. We are forced to steer by guesswork. We go with our gut. That is, some of us do. Others use data. ...

Washington Post 4/30
Poll affirms a vote for judicial know-how
Some Senate Democrats and legal activists are advising President Obama to look beyond the "judicial monastery" to find a replacement for retiring Justice John Paul Stevens, but the public does not seem to share that view. ...

Gallup 4/29
More Americans Favor Than Oppose AZ Immigration Law
More than three-quarters of Americans have heard about the state of Arizona's new immigration law, and of these, 51% say they favor it and 39% oppose it. ...

Rhodes Cook 4/29
Midterms Past: The '66 Parallel
For months now, this election has been compared to that of 1994, when Republicans scored huge gains and won both houses of Congress. It is a decent model. But given the recent passage of health care reform – something that did not happen in '94 – this might be a good occasion to look at another midterm election for instruction, that of 1966. ...

Public Policy Institute of Calif. (pdf) 4/29
Californians and education
As California once again confronts a multibillion dollar budget deficit, concern has grown considerably among the state's residents about the consequences of spending cuts on kindergarten through 12th grade education. ...

CBS News: Jennifer De Pinto 4/28
Most Americans think immigration is a serious issue ...
Most Americans think the issue of illegal immigration is a serious one, according to a CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted earlier this month. That view has changed little over the past few years. ...

Pew Research Center 4/28
Public Doubts Effectiveness of Stimulus, TARP
The public remains doggedly downbeat about the condition of the national economy, even as many experts and economists see signs of recovery. ...

David Hill 4/28
Abortion wanes as issue
2010 seems likely to mark the end of abortion’s prominence as an influential issue in Republican primary elections. While GOP voters once dutifully lined up behind the most pro-life candidates, that just isn’t the case these days. ...

Mark Mellman 4/28
Days of future past
With commentators offering a dizzying array of perspectives on the relationship between the economy and voting, it is hard to separate fact from fable, analysis from anecdote, history from hypothesis. ...

Washington Post 4/28
An anti-incumbent mood as midterm elections near
Members of Congress face the most anti-incumbent electorate since 1994, with less than a third of all voters saying they are inclined to support their representatives in November, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. ...

Gallup 4/27
'Enthusiastic' Voters Prefer GOP by 20 Points
Although U.S. registered voters are closely divided in their 2010 congressional election preferences, those who say they are "very enthusiastic about voting" this year show a strong preference for the Republican Party. ...

Democracy Corps 4/27
Is this the Final Chapter or a New Chapter?
... We could be at the beginning of a new, six-month chapter with voters growing more invested in the country's current course and shifting their thinking about the issues and stakes. Or we could be locked into this current chapter as a final one full of angry citizens determined to cast their votes against Washington, the elites, Democrats and government. ...

ABC News 4/26
Two-Thirds Back Financial Reform
Two-thirds of Americans support stricter federal regulation of banks and other financial institutions, and by a double-digit margin the public trusts President Obama more than the Republicans in Congress to handle financial reform, which could be a caution flag for the GOP in an election year. ...

Gallup 4/26
Younger Voters Less Enthusiastic This Year
Younger voters remain less enthusiastic about voting in this year's midterm elections than those who are older, underscoring the challenge facing the Democratic Party in its efforts to re-energize these voters, who helped President Obama win the presidency in 2008. ...

Deseret News 4/26
Utah state delegates out of step with most Utahns
Are state Republican and Democratic party delegates politically out of step with both their party rank-and-file and most other Utahns? Yes, says a new Deseret News/KSL-TV survey. ...

Bill Schneider 4/24
The Tea Party: Goldwater 2.0
If you are of a certain age, the "tea party" movement may evoke a distant memory, the takeover of the Republican Party by Barry Goldwater's supporters in 1964. The two political movements share the same driving force -- not personal discontent, but ideological outrage. ...

Gallup 4/23
Party Affiliation Gap in U.S. Narrowest Since 2005
The advantage in public support the Democratic Party built up during the latter part of the Bush administration and the early part of the Obama administration has all but disappeared. ...

George F. Bishop 4/22
The Tea Party Myths
... In this column I start with a skeptical look at some of the recent estimates about the percentage of Tea party "supporters" in the USA. Well, like a lot of other topics in public opinion polling, much depends on how you ask the questions and on questions you don't think to ask. ...

Democracy Corps 4/22
Testing Messages on Financial Reform
Republicans in the Senate decided to base their opposition to financial reform using a message developed by GOP pollster Frank Luntz, arguing that reform amounts to bailouts for Wall Street banks. But our polling reveals this to be the weakest argument available to Republicans. ...

Zogby/Allegheny College 4/22
Nastiness, Name-calling & Negativity
... Our findings suggest near universal recognition of the problem and a growing concern about the implications of an uncivil body politic. Further, the findings cast blame at a number of institutions, but also give reasons for optimism. ...

Kaiser Family Foundation (pdf) 4/22
Kaiser Health Tracking Poll
Kaiser's first health tracking survey since the enactment of the Patient Protection and Affordability Act finds a public both highly aware of the law's passage and confused about the ways upcoming changes will affect them personally. ...

Riley E. Dunlap 4/22
Environmental Movement Endures, With Less Consensus
April 22 marks the 40th anniversary of the first Earth Day, an event widely considered to be the birth of the modern environmental movement. Few social movements survive 40 years, so in this sense alone, environmentalism might be considered successful. ...

Public Agenda 4/22
Confidence In U.S. Foreign Policy Index
The American public is less anxious about foreign policy than it's been for four years, partly because they believe our global image has improved, and partly because the troubled economy and other domestic concerns are pushing foreign worries aside, according to Public Agenda's Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index. ...

Washington Post: Behind the Numbers 4/21
Tea party polls provide some big-picture specifics
Just who are tea partiers? ... Over the past few months, pollsters have used a range of questions, each yielding some overlapping but also some divergent results. ...

Gallup 4/21
Bush Still Gets More Blame for Economy Than Obama
More than a year into Barack Obama's presidency, Americans are more likely to say George W. Bush is responsible for today's economic problems than they are to say Obama is responsible.  ...

New York Times 4/21
Obama and the 'Birthers'
... In a recent New York Times/CBS News poll, 58% said Mr. Obama was born in the United States. That leaves a significant minority who said they thought he was born in another country (20%) or said they did not know (23%). ... The poll did not include any follow-up questions on the issue, so The Times called back some of the respondents to find out why they do not believe the president was born in the United States, where they think he was born instead and where they get their information. ...

Gallup 4/21
Signs of Economic Improvement
... Gallup's 30-day average underemployment measure (not seasonally adjusted) declined to 19.2% on April 18 -- a sharp improvement from the 20.2% reported on March 21 -- and essentially matching its best level of the year. ...

CNBC 4/20
Legalization: More Americans Say 'No'
The majority of Americans are reluctant to favor the complete legalization of marijuana for any purpose, despite efforts to liberalize marijuana laws in states across the country, according to a new AP-CNBC poll. ...

WorldPublicOpinion.org 4/19
Global Views of U.S. Improve, Other Countries Decline
Global views of the United States have improved markedly over the last year while views of many countries have become more negative, according to the latest BBC World Service poll across 28 countries. ...

Pew Research Center 4/19
Distrust, Discontent, Anger and Partisan Rancor
By almost every conceivable measure Americans are less positive and more critical of government these days. A new Pew Research Center survey finds a perfect storm of conditions associated with distrust of government. ...

Gallup 4/19
Democrats' Satisfaction Spikes
Americans have grown more satisfied with the way things are going in the United States over the past month, fueled by a jump in satisfaction among Democrats and a smaller increase among independents. ...

Gallup 4/19
Americans Still Most Confident in Obama on Economy
President Obama and "business leaders" engender the most confidence from Americans for their ability to do or to recommend the right thing for the economy. ...

Washington Post: Dan Balz 4/18
Don't mistake tea party for Perot movement
... The Perot voters were a disparate group, ideologically diverse, with generally secular views. The tea party movement is far more cohesive. If anything, it is simply an adjunct of the conservative wing of the Republican Party, even if many of its supporters say they hold no particular allegiance for the GOP and are critical of party leadership. ....

Gallup 4/16
Voters Currently Divided on Second Obama Term
Registered voters are about evenly divided over whether President Barack Obama is deserving of a second term in office. Currently, 46% say he deserves re-election and 50% say he does not. ...

Gallup 4/16
Voters Currently Divided on Second Obama Term
Registered voters are about evenly divided over whether President Barack Obama is deserving of a second term in office. Currently, 46% say he deserves re-election and 50% say he does not. Predictably, Democrats are one-sided for Obama's re-election and Republicans are one-sided against it, while independents lean against a second Obama term. ...

Douglas Schoen & Patrick Caddell 4/16
How the Democrats can avoid a November bloodbath
Media reports suggest that President Obama is turning his attention toward the midterm congressional elections. There are a few things it is imperative he understand if he is to, at the least, minimize Democratic losses in November. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 4/15
Support for the Tea Party?
Two new Tax Day polls underscore some of the vagaries of measurement, especially, perhaps, when it comes to gauging support for a new and still somewhat fuzzily understood political movement. ...

New York Times 4/15
Tea Party Anger Rooted in Issues of Class
Tea party supporters are wealthier and more well-educated than the general public, tend to be Republican, white, male, and married, and their strong opposition to the Obama administration is more rooted in political ideology than anxiety about their personal economic situation, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. ...

Gallup 4/14
Americans Split on Whether Income Taxes Are Too High
For the second straight year, slightly less than half of Americans say the amount of federal income tax they have to pay is too high, while almost as many say the amount they pay in taxes is about right. ...

Mark S. Mellman 4/14
Health care history lessons
President Obama recently and rightly chastised poll-waving pundits for parroting premature conclusions about the popularity of health care reform, based on the absence of a post-passage surge in support. ....

ABC News: Gary Langer 4/12
On Nuclear Terrorism, a Muted Perception of Threat
Barely half of Americans see nuclear terrorism as a top-level threat and most doubt a two-day summit of world leaders in Washington will do much to address it – challenges for President Obama as he seeks to marshal support for international action. ...

Gallup 4/12
Democrats' Economic Confidence Improving
Democrats are substantially more positive about the economy than are Republicans or independents, and have become more so in recent weeks, underscoring the large political component evident in how Americans view the economy. ...

New York Times 4/12
1994 Republican Rout Is Casting Shadow in 2010
... In many ways, the 1994 election has become the template both Republicans and Democrats are looking to as they set their strategies for the fall Congressional elections. Democratic campaign operatives, who are girding for big losses, began meeting quietly with party strategists involved in the 1994 contests last summer, looking for lessons on how to avoid another rout. ...

Pew Research Center 4/12
News Leaders and the Future
America's news executives are hesitant about many of the alternative funding ideas being discussed for journalism today and are overwhelmingly skeptical about the prospect of government financing, according to a new survey by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism in association with the American Society of News Editors and the Radio Television Digital News Association. ...

New York Times: John Harwood 4/12
Conflicting Signs For Midterm Elections
As if Republicans did not have enough cause for optimism this year, the pollster Neil Newhouse offers this lesson from history: Since John F. Kennedy occupied the White House, presidents with approval ratings below 50 percent have seen their parties lose an average of 41 House seats in midterm elections. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 4/9
Study Group Issues a Warning on Opt-in Online Surveys
Volunteer-based internet surveys should not be used to represent broader public opinion, given their lack of a theoretical basis in survey research principles, according to a detailed report by the nation’s leading association of public opinion researchers. ...

New York Times: Matt Bai 4/9
Survey Says
... The rise of the Internet society, and the ability we now have to register our every contemporaneous thought and to feel as if we speak directly to our leaders, has revitalized the tension in our politics between the idea of a constitutional republic and the more populist notion of an Athenian-style democracy. ...

Gallup 4/8
Democratic Party Image Drops to Record Low
Americans' favorable rating of the Democratic Party dropped to 41% in a late March USA Today/Gallup poll, the lowest point in the 18-year history of this measure. Favorable impressions of the Republican Party are now at 42%, thus closing the gap between the two parties' images that has prevailed for the past four years. ...

University of Washington 4/8
Racial attitudes influence tea party movement
... A new University of Washington survey found that among whites, southerners are 12% more likely to support the tea party than whites in other parts of the U.S., and that conservatives are 28% more likely than liberals to support the group. "The tea party is not just about politics and size of government. The data suggests it may also be about race," said Christopher Parker, a UW assistant professor of political science who directed the survey. ...

Gallup 4/7
Voters Issue Strong Rebuke of Incumbents in Congress
A record-low percentage of U.S. voters -- 28% -- say most members of Congress deserve to be re-elected. The previous low was 29% in October 1992. ...

David Hill 4/7
Endorsements can backfire
... A lot of thought and polling goes into this endorsement process, and most of it is useless. ... Polling the impact of potential endorsers is more art than science. You cannot simply look at an endorser's favorability. ...

Gallup: Frank Newport 4/6
More on the Tea Party Movement
Each side of the political spectrum appears to have a vested interest in portraying the Tea Party movement in the specific way that best fits their ideological positioning. This is of course not at all a surprising fact of life in a hot political environment. ...

George Bishop & David Moore 4/6
We are Poll Skeptics, Not Poll Cynics
Each of us has been involved in the polling enterprise for over thirty-five years, so this skepticism about media polling is neither fanciful nor fleeting. Our skepticism focuses primarily on the results of major media polls, which shape our collective vision of what the public thinks and wants. ...

Gallup 4/6
Americans Prioritize Energy Over Environment
Americans are more likely to say the U.S. should prioritize development of energy supplies than to say it should prioritize protecting the environment, the first time more have favored energy production over environmental protection in this question's 10-year history. ...

Gallup 4/5
Tea Partiers Fairly Mainstream in Their Demographics
Tea Party supporters skew right politically; but demographically, they are generally representative of the public at large. That's the finding of a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted March 26-28, in which 28% of U.S. adults call themselves supporters of the Tea Party movement. ...

Los Angeles Times 4/5
CA: Whitman's deep pockets put her ahead of Brown
Republican Meg Whitman's unprecedented spending spree in the race for governor has rocketed her into a narrow lead against Democrat Jerry Brown, while incumbent U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) is holding her own as a trio of little-known GOP candidates vies to challenge her, a new Los Angeles Times/USC poll has found. ...

Los Angeles Times 4/3
Californians take positive view of health care reform
California voters have a generally positive view of the massive federal health care package signed into law by President Obama last month, providing a potential boost statewide to the Democrats who pushed it through Congress, according to a new Times/USC poll. ...

CBS News Poll 4/3
Most Americans Remain Against Health Care Overhaul
The public is increasingly skeptical of the health care reform bill signed into law last week, a new CBS News poll shows. More Americans now disapprove of the legislation, and many expect their costs to rise and the quality of their care to worsen; few expect the reforms to help them. ...

Thomas B. Edsall 4/1
The Obama Coalition
Over the last two years, there has been a massive increase in the number of people who have no place to turn except to the government. Enactment of the Obama administration's health care reform legislation demonstrates the growing power of this burgeoning constituency -- a constituency which will reap a disproportionate share of the $1 trillion in new health care spending over the next decade. ....

David Winston 4/1
What's driving the Tea Party Movement?
Tea Party activists may be ardent supporters of economic conservatism but are similar to the overall electorate when it comes to economic priorities, according to the findings of a new report released by The Winston Group today on the political movement. ...

Alfred G. Cuzan 4/1
President Obama: Another Carter or Another Reagan?
In his first year in the White House, Barack Obama's job approval fell about fifteen points. ... This steep decline was unusual but not unprecedented for a new president. Two others, one from each party, stand out: Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. ...

Democracy Corps 3/31
A Crisis with No Easy Fixes
The federal budget deficit is a growing problem for Americans, with a stream of mixed messages from voters. Most describe it as a crisis – outpacing even unemployment – but there is little consensus on where to cut the fat. ...

South Florida Sun-Sentinel 3/31
Cell use soars, forcing pollsters to change methods
Cell phone users beware: There's a growing chance you'll be enraged as the 2010 political season heats up. ...

Washington Post 3/31
EDITOR'S NOTE
A March 29 A-section article about attitudes toward Democratic leaders after the battle over health-care legislation, based on a Washington Post-ABC News poll, quoted a poll respondent named John Murtha without identifying him as the son of the late Rep. John P. Murtha (D-Pa.). ...

Mark Mellman 3/31
On to financial reform
Americans are angry at Wall Street, holding the big banks responsible for the recession and demanding action on financial reform to forestall more job loss. For most Americans, financial reform is about jobs. ...

Washington Post 3/31
Groves brings scholarly depth to bear in leading census
When Bob Groves was asked by President Obama to undertake the mammoth job of leading the 2010 Census, Groves paused. ... A scientist at heart, Groves understood the political perils of the job ... But he also knew that the census is a foundation of American democracy, a once-every-10-years effort used to determine congressional seats and how hundreds of billions of dollars in federal aid is distributed. ...

Gallup 3/30
Americans Concerned About Costs of Health Care Bill
One week after the passage of historic new health care legislation, Americans remain worried about the bill's effect on costs -- both for the nation as a whole and for them personally. ...

Washington Post 3/29
Health-care overhaul leaves Dems in stable condition
After steering the landmark health-care reform bill through Congress, the Democratic Party's leaders have emerged mostly unscathed, according to a new Washington Post poll, but they have not received a notable boost in approval ratings. ...

Washington Post 3/28
Split on health-care law remains deep
Americans overwhelmingly see the new health-care law as a major shift in the direction of the country, but they remain as deeply divided today over the changes as they were throughout the long congressional debate, according to a Washington Post poll. ...

Ronald Brownstein 3/27
Dems Caught In Populist Crossfire
... The belief that Washington has transferred benefits up the income ladder is pervasive across society but especially pronounced among white voters with less than a college education, the group that most resisted Obama in 2008. Now health care could threaten Democrats from the opposite direction by stoking old fears, particularly among the white working class, that liberals are transferring income down the income ladder to the "less deserving." ...

Bill Schneider 3/27
Health Bill Changes Everything
... The prediction of electoral catastrophe for Democrats may turn out to the most overwrought forecast since Y2K. The reason is this: Once the health care legislation is law, everything changes. ...

Pew Financial Reform Project 3/26
Financial Reform a Top Priority
Most Americans-59 percent-believe Congress and the President need to reform our financial system now, according to a national poll commissioned by the Pew Financial Reform Project and conducted by a bipartisan team consisting of The Mellman Group and Ayres, McHenry & Associates. ...

Heart+Mind Strategies 3/26
Heart+Mind Strategies Announces Launch
Heart+Mind Strategies, a rapidly growing, full-service, strategic research and consulting company officially announces its formation today. Heart+Mind Strategies' partners are part of the former leadership of Wirthlin Worldwide founded by Dr. Richard B. Wirthlin – a pioneer in values-based research and Ronald Reagan's pollster. ...

AAPOR (pfd) 3/25
AAPOR Report on Online Panels
In September, 2008, the AAPOR Executive Council established an Opt-In Online Panel Task Force and charged it with "reviewing the current empirical findings related to opt-in online panels utilized for data collection and developing recommendations for AAPOR members." ... This is its report. ...

Washington Post 3/25
HCR not guaranteed to bring new votes to Democrats
Despite breaking a decades-old legislative impasse with a bill that will eventually extend health insurance to more than 30 million people, it's unlikely that the efforts of President Obama and congressional Democrats will soon yield them a huge new base of enthusiastic supporters. ...

Rhodes Cook 3/25
Hamstrung by Health Care?
Each party in the last two decades has benefited from "big wave" elections to win control of the House of Representatives . . . . Whether 2010 will be another such historic election that restores the GOP to House control will depend on what happens in the next seven months -- voter reaction to health care reform and other Obama administration initiatives, the state of national security and the ongoing wars in the Middle East, and most importantly, the progress made in reviving the struggling economy. ....

CBS News: Anthony Salvanto & Mark Gersh 3/25
Which States Will Gain Power After Census?
... Once again the South and West will gain some political clout while some districts in the north will vanish, taking influence along with them. If geography is indeed destiny, then America's future will be increasingly determined by the Sun Belt. ...

Public Opinion Strategies: Micah Roberts 3/24
Benchmarking 2010 for the Democrats
A comparison of our latest NBC/WSJ national survey (which was conducted March 11, 13-14, before the health care bill passed the House) with common questions asked on the March 2006 NBC-WSJ national survey, shows Democrats may be facing the same rout Republicans endured just four years ago. ...

Gallup 3/24
Majority of Poor, Young, Uninsured Back Healthcare Bill
While 49% of Americans overall say Congress' passing healthcare reform is a "good thing," support is greater among Americans who currently lack health insurance. ...

ABC News: Gary Langer 3/24
Polling on Presidential Pejoratives
Whatever profoundly negative things people might think about Barack Obama, a new poll out today demonstrates splendidly how not to measure them. ...

Mark S. Mellman 3/24
Where Dems go from here
Passing healthcare reform is an accomplishment of historic proportions, even though, on the eve of victory, only 45 percent of Americans were willing to label it even a major feat. ....

David Hill 3/24
Dependence on Uncle Sam won't grow
There are a host of reasons to be fearful of the Democrats' healthcare plan, but I want to take one off the table. Despite fears that this "government takeover of healthcare" will make more Americans feel dependent on government, I have my doubts. ...

Gallup 3/23
By Slim Margin, Support for Healthcare Bill's Passage
Nearly half of Americans give a thumbs-up to Congress' passage of a healthcare reform bill last weekend, with 49% calling it "a good thing." Republicans and Democrats have polar opposite reactions, with independents evenly split. ...

Monmouth U.: Patrick Murray 3/23
Little Love for the 'Representative from My District'
It's a truism that Americans rate their own Congressional representatives more positively than the institution as a whole. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll released last week bears that out. ...

Stanley B. Greenberg 3/23
For Democrats, a Win Is a Win
PASSAGE of the new comprehensive health care reform bill by Congress may not be the "game changer" some joyful Democrats are declaring it to be, but it may at least herald a new game for the 2010 midterm elections. ...

New York Times 3/20
Procedural Maneuvering and Public Opinion
... Polls suggest that Americans are acutely interested in the health care bill itself, but are not aware, and not really following, the arcane battling that has framed it. ...

ABC: Gary Langer 3/19
Presidential Approval - an Update
Focus on the health care machinations in Washington is bound to spin into a look at Barack Obama's popularity. And voila, the latest Gallup daily tracking poll has the president's approval rating at what it calls his "lowest yet." ...

Resurgent Republic 3/17
Hispanic Voters Align with Conservative Policies
Despite being more favorable to Democrats than Republicans, Hispanic voters are open to persuasion this November due to concern over current Democrat policies on spending, debt and national security, according to Resurgent Republic’s latest national survey among 800 registered likely Hispanic voters conducted March 7-10, 2010. ...

U.S. Chamber of Commerce 3/16
Voters Opposed to Current Health Care Proposal
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce today released public opinion polls in 10 key congressional districts -- all of which showed voters oppose current health care legislation being discussed in Congress, with substantial majorities saying it will raise the cost of their health care. ...

Gallup: Frank Newport 3/15
Dueling Pollsters
The White House is pushing for a House vote on healthcare reform law by the end of the week. The New York Times predicts a week of "arm-twisting and high drama." And, we have a continuation of dueling claims about polls on this issue. ...

Glen Bolger 3/15
The Mood Gap Finally Favoring Republicans
A key to understanding the mindset of Independent voters is to compare their views on the right direction/wrong track with the views of Republicans and Democrats. Independents are always somewhere in between the two partisan groups -- but the key is which partisan group are Independents closer to at any point in time -- which I've dubbed "The Mood Gap." ...

Scripps Howard News Service 3/15
Government Secrecy is as Strong as Ever
Public cynicism that the federal government operates in an atmosphere of secrecy is as strong as ever, despite President Barack Obama's promises to make government information more easily available to the public. ...

Joel Benenson / SEIU 3/15
Base Democrats' and Independents' Concerns
Democrats have lost a significant degree of the equity they carried as the party of change in 2008, putting election prospects at considerable risk for the coming midterms. ...

Gallup 3/15
Americans More Upbeat About Environmental Quality
Americans grew more content over the past year with the overall quality of the environment in the country. Their "excellent" or "good" ratings now total 46%, up from 39% in March 2009. Despite these shifts, the majority (53%) continue to rate current environmental conditions as only fair or poor....

Richard (RJ) Eskow 3/13
Passing The Bill Will Help Democrats
There's a lot of buzz in health care circles about an editorial in today's Washington Post entitled "If Democrats ignore health-care polls, midterms will be costly." That could be dangerous: the author's conclusions are contradicted, not supported, by the available facts. . . .

Joel Benenson 3/13
Most Americans want health care reform
It is ironic that Democratic pollsters Patrick H. Caddell and Douglas E. Schoen felt "compelled" to "challenge the myths" about public attitudes on health care by simply restating one of the most commonly stated -- and patently wrong -- Republican myths. . . .
[ See also: Health care polls ]

Patrick Caddell & Douglas Schoen 3/12
Democrats: Ignoring health care polls would be costly
... Bluntly put, this is the political reality: First, the battle for public opinion has been lost. Comprehensive health care has been lost. If it fails, as appears possible, Democrats will face the brunt of the electorate's reaction. If it passes, however, Democrats will face a far greater calamitous reaction at the polls. . . .

Charlie Cook 3/13
A Shrunken Edge For Dems
So when is news that appears to be good for a party not really something it should cheer about? This week may have been just such a time, after the Gallup Poll released a national survey showing Democrats with a 3-point advantage, 47% to 44%, on the generic congressional ballot test. . . .

CBS: Jennifer De Pinto 3/12
Most Independents Were Once at the Party
Forty-two percent of Americans identified themselves as political independents in a CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted February 5-10. . . . According to the poll, a majority of independents -- six in 10 -- say they used to identify with one of the nation's two major political parties. . . .

Chris Cillizza 3/11
White House memo: Health care support is increasing
A new polling memo from Joel Benenson, the White House's pollster of choice, argues that support for President Barack Obama's health care plan has been building in the wake of his State of the Union speech in late January. . . .

Alan I. Abramowitz 3/11
Demographic Change and the Future of the GOP
... While Republican prospects appear bright in the near term, there are storm clouds looming on the horizon: electoral and Census data show that Hispanics, African-Americans, and other nonwhites will make up an increasing share of the American electorate in the future while the GOP's traditional base of conservative whites will continue to shrink. . . .

Democracy Corps 3/11
Baseline Survey on the Economy
The biggest challenge facing Democrats in 2010 after passing health care is getting the economy right – and this is even more important than health care. . . .

Gallup 3/11
Americans' Global Warming Concerns Continue to Drop
Gallup's annual update on Americans' attitudes toward the environment shows a public that over the last two years has become less worried about the threat of global warming, less convinced that its effects are already happening, and more likely to believe that scientists themselves are uncertain about its occurrence. . . .

Mark S. Mellman 3/10
Some quick to write off Obama
... Ronald Reagan was the same fellow when he was defeating an incumbent president or winning 49 states as he was when he was losing 26 House seats. His staff was no more or less competent. Barack Obama's considerable talents, and those of his staff, have not dissipated in the past year. What changed for both Reagan and Obama was the drop in their approval ratings. And in both instances, that decline had more to do with economic conditions beyond their control than with any communications failure or legislative defeat. . . .

Gallup 3/10
Fewer Americans Set on Buying Foreign Cars
In their car purchasing decisions, Americans are now less likely to show exclusive loyalty to foreign brands than they were in the recent past. . . .

Institute of Politics, Harvard University (pdf) 3/9
Young Americans: Politics and Public Service
Among 18 to 29 year old Americans, the job approval ratings of President Barack Obama have held stable between this survey and the last one conducted by the Institute of Politics between November 4 and November 16, 2009. . . .

Democracy Corps/Third Way 3/8
The Politics of National Security: A Wake-up Call
... Although the public continues to give the president strong ratings on a range of national security issues – indeed, above his overall approval rating – there is evidence of rising public concern about the president's handing of these issues. . . .

Gallup 3/8
Republicans', Dems' Abortion Views Grow More Polarized
With congressional passage of healthcare reform potentially hinging on a battle over abortion funding, Gallup finds that Americans' views on the extent to which abortion should be legal in 2009 were nearly identical to their outlook in 1975 -- though support has fluctuated somewhat over time. However, the underlying trend by party shows that Republicans' and Democrats' views on the contentious issue have become increasingly polarized. . . .

New York Times: John Harwood 3/8
Sure-Fire Crowd Pleaser: Reining in Wall Street
For President Obama and Congressional Democrats, public opinion this past year has mostly gone in the wrong direction -- on his job performance, on health care and economic stimulus, on midterm elections. But there's one conspicuous exception: the president's call for reining in Wall Street. . . .

Washington Post 3/7
Support for Democrats in Iowa fades
... The state that launched Barack Obama toward the presidency just two years ago is looking like a tough sell for Democrats in 2010. [Democratic Gov. Chet] Culver is in trouble, Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) is threatened and Obama's own popularity has dropped by one-third since he took office....

New York Times 3/7
Democrats Need a Rally Monkey
"Wake Up and Stand Up." So urges the bold motto of a seedling movement calling itself the Coffee Party, a leftish alternative to the Tea Party movement. But it's going to take more than a jolt of java, which so far amounts to not much more than a wishful exhortation, to energize the left. . . .

Nieman Foundation: Barry Sussman 3/5
Huge support – 2 to 1 – for health care reform
... Comes now (Feb. 26-28) a McClatchy/Ipsos poll of 1,076 people that on first glance offers rocks to sling at Obama. ... But the pollsters went a step further. . . .

ABC: Gary Langer 3/5
9/11 and Military Tribunals
... In addition to the center being more inclined toward military tribunals, conservatives and Republicans favor this approach far more broadly than liberals and Democrats prefer civilian trials. . . .

CBS: Sarah Dutton 3/5
Americans Remain Worried About Job Loss
According to many economists, the country is officially out of the recession – but that has yet to allay many Americans' anxiety about unemployment. . . .

Andrew Kohut 3/4
Restoring America's Reputation in the World
... Favorable ratings of the U.S. plunged in many countries following the invasion of Iraq and remained low through 2008. In 2009, we began to document a revival of America's global image in many parts of the world reflecting confidence in its new president, Barack Obama. . . .

Rhodes Cook 3/4
Gauging Anti-Incumbent Sentiment
The 2010 primary season is under way, which at the congressional and gubernatorial levels is often no more than a quiet backwater in America's electoral process. ... But this year could be dramatically different. Distaste with government is palpable. . . .

Gallup 3/4
Age Groups Differ on Obama More Than on Bush, Clinton
Barack Obama's job approval rating averages 66% among young adults during his presidency, 15 percentage points higher than for senior citizens and at least nine points higher than for any other age group. During their presidencies, George W. Bush's and Bill Clinton's approval ratings showed much less variation by age. . . .

David Hill 3/3
Useless nuke-energy majority
It's been roughly one year since Gallup made the striking announcement that Americans' support for using nuclear energy to generate electricity reached an all-time high of 59%. That starting gun seemed to set off a race to put nuclear power back into the news. . . .

McLaughlin and Associates/Citizens United 3/2
National Opinion Poll on Campaign Finance
... Contrary to the results of the recent Washington Post/ABC poll, the McLaughlin poll found that when informed of the consequences of the government's attempts to regulate free speech during elections, public opinion sways markedly in favor of the Supreme Court's ruling. . . .

USA Today 3/2
55% say Toyota too slow to act
A majority of Americans think Toyota has failed to respond quickly enough to potential safety defects, and a significant minority — 31% — think it is unsafe now to be in a Toyota or Lexus, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll over the weekend. . . .

National Journal: Mark Blumenthal 3/1
A Poll For Every Side At Health Summit
The health reform summit last week was remarkable in many ways. The more than seven hours of televised discussion of health care policy delivered the "little slice of heaven" that policy wonks like the Washington Post's Ezra Klein expected, but it also delivered something surprising. It "may have set the record for the most times 'polls' have been cited in one place in the history of the Republic," as Republican pollster Steve Lombardo put it. . . .

Pew Research Center 3/1
Understanding the Participatory News Consumer
The overwhelming majority of Americans (92%) use multiple platforms to get their daily news, according to a new survey. ... The internet is now the third most-popular news platform, behind local and national television news and ahead of national print newspapers, local print newspapers and radio. . . .

New York Times: Dalia Sussman 2/28
Opinion Polling: A Question of What to Ask
W. H. Auden couldn't have had public opinion polls in mind when he wrote that "to ask the hard question is simple." Consider the way Americans feel about changing the health care system. . . .

Democracy Corps / Women's Voices. Women Vote. (pdf) 2/26
Turnout and the New American Majority
As many in the voter participation communities have chronicled, declining turnout among some key groups in the American electorate represents a looming problem heading into the 2010 elections. . . .

Alan I. Abramowitz 2/25
What to Expect in November
According to a statistical model that has proven highly accurate in forecasting the outcomes of congressional elections, Republicans now have a good chance of regaining control of the House of Representatives in November. . . .

Washington Post 2/25
Concern about U.S. influence waning as China's grows
Facing high unemployment and a difficult economy, most Americans think the United States will have a smaller role in the world economy in the coming years, and many believe that while the 20th century may have been the "American Century," the 21st century will belong to China. . . .

USA Today 2/25
Expectations low on health summit
Public expectations are low for today's high-profile White House summit on health care: Three of four Americans in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll predict President Obama and congressional leaders won't reach agreement on a bill. . . .

Pew Research Center (pdf) 2/24
Millennials: Confident. Connected. Open to Change.
... Millennials remain significantly more liberal than members of other generations. This is reflected not just in their partisan identification and voting patterns, but also in their overall views about the role of government and about a range of social and national security issues. . . .

David Hill 2/24
Dem pollsters go public with advice
Things must really be getting desperate in Democrat camps. Top Dem pollsters like Stanley Greenberg and Doug Schoen are not content dispensing advice behind closed doors. Now they are going public with their counsel in an effort to revive "the Democratic brand." . . .

Gary Langer 2/23
On Health Care Reform, the Roar of Partisanship
Several polls lately have underscored broad agreement on some key elements of health care reform, prompting hopes for accord at the White House summit this week. The challenge: Other, equally central aspects of reform are seen negatively – with vast partisan gaps. . . .

Atlanta Journal-Constitution 2/23
Lines blur as pollster tries to heal feud
It's a bizarre story where commerce, regulatory oversight and politics intersect. It involves Matt Towery, an Atlanta-based pollster and attorney; John Oxendine, the state's insurance commissioner and a candidate for governor; and a failed insurance company under criminal investigation by Oxendine. . . .

Gallup 2/22
Obama Approval Rating Continues to Hover Around 50%
President Barack Obama averaged 49% job approval from Americans for the week of Feb. 15-21. His recent approval ratings, based on Gallup Daily tracking, have shown a high degree of stability, with the weekly averages ranging between 48% and 51% since mid-November. . . .

Gallup 2/22
Health Coverage Varies Widely by Age and Income
As White House and congressional leaders prepare for their bipartisan summit on healthcare on Feb. 25, a new Gallup Daily tracking analysis reinforces the wide degree of variability in health insurance coverage across U.S. population segments. . . .

Washington Post 2/21
Republicans look to rebuild traction with Hispanic voters
... From 1988 to 2008, the number of eligible Hispanic voters rose 21 percent -- from 16.1 million to 19.5 million. "The numbers don't lie," said Whit Ayres, a GOP consultant. "If Republicans don't do better among Hispanics, we're not going to be talking about how to get Florida back in the Republican column, we're going to be talking about how not to lose Texas." . . .

Gallup 2/19
In U.S., Canada Places First in Image Contest; Iran Last
Americans' perceptions of 20 nations that figure prominently in the news or U.S. foreign policy held quite steady in the first year of the Obama administration. Canada retained its top position in Gallup's annual country ratings, with 90% of Americans viewing it favorably, unchanged from 2009. Iran continues to rank last, with 10% this year. . . .

Stanley B. Greenberg 2/18
Disaster Relief: How to avoid a repeat of 1994
... President Obama and the Democratic Party need to urgently revisit 1994. By paying close attention to the lessons of that year -- lessons about presidential leadership, the consequences of congressional melodrama, the need for an economic narrative and for a defining choice in the election -- the worst can be avoided. . . .

Pew Research Center 2/18
Democrats' Edge Among Millennials Slips
The "Millennial Generation" of young voters played a big role in the resurgence of the Democratic Party in the 2006 and 2008 elections, but their attachment to the Democratic Party weakened markedly over the course of 2009. . . .

Center for American Progress 2/17
Americans Support Repeal of 'Don't Ask Don't Tell'
A new poll from the Center for American Progress shows that a majority of American voters support the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," the U.S. military's policy that bans openly gay men and lesbians from serving in the armed forces. . . .

Franklin & Marshall College (pfd) 2/17
Perceptions of Politicians versus Elected Officials
Americans have historically had a dim view of politicians. ... We created a simple experiment in our most recent national poll attempting to understand whether the term "politician" has become a word that pollsters should avoid. . . .

Washington Post 2/17
Large majority opposes decision on campaign finance
Americans of both parties overwhelmingly oppose a Supreme Court ruling that allows corporations and unions to spend as much as they want on political campaigns, and most favor new limits on such spending, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life 2/17
Religion Among the Millennials
By some key measures, Americans ages 18 to 29 are considerably less religious than older Americans. Fewer young adults belong to any particular faith than older people do today. They also are less likely to be affiliated than their parents' and grandparents' generations were when they were young. . . .

New York Times 2/16
Tea Party Movement Lights Fuse for Rebellion on Right
... Urged on by conservative commentators, waves of newly minted activists are turning to once-obscure books and Web sites and discovering a set of ideas long dismissed as the preserve of conspiracy theorists, interviews conducted across the country over several months show. In this view, Mr. Obama and many of his predecessors (including George W. Bush) have deliberately undermined the Constitution and free enterprise for the benefit of a shadowy international network of wealthy elites. . . .

USA Today 2/16
An America that's bruised, but still optimistic
... With a new decade underway, Americans feel battered by hard times, record home foreclosures, stubbornly high unemployment rates and war. In the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, they are fed up with Washington and convinced by more than 3 to 1 that the nation is heading in the wrong direction. Even so, confidence that there will be better times ahead -- and that the classic American dream endures -- hasn't been extinguished. . . .

Nicholas Kristof 2/14
Our Politics May Be All in Our Head
We all know that liberals and conservatives are far apart on health care. But in the way their brains work? Even in automatic reflexes, like blinking? Or the way their glands secrete moisture? That's the suggestion of some recent research. . . .

Dan Balz 2/14
Obama's ratings and fortunes of congressional Dems
The latest polls underscore the depth of dissatisfaction with Washington around the country in the opening weeks of this election year. For nervous Democrats on Capitol Hill, nothing will be more important to their reelection prospects than how President Obama responds to the anger that's out there. . . .

Pew Research Center 2/12
Midterm Election Challenges for Both Parties
Nine months ahead of the midterm elections, voters have conflicted attitudes about both political parties. Opinions of the Republican Party have improved significantly, and for the first time in years the GOP's favorable ratings nearly equal the Democratic Party's. Voting intentions for the fall elections also remain closely divided. . . .

Gallup 2/12
Unemployment Jumps to Top Problem Status
The percentage of Americans mentioning unemployment as the most important problem facing the United States rose nine percentage points in the past month, from 22% to 31%, and has nearly doubled since December. . . .

CBS 2/12
Who Are the Tea Partiers?
Americans who call themselves supporters of the Tea Party movement express strong levels of anger toward Washington generally, and great personal antipathy toward President Obama specifically, a new CBS News/ New York Times poll shows. . . .

New York Times 2/12
Poll Finds Edge for Obama Over GOP Among the Public
At a time of deepening political disaffection and intensified distress about the economy, President Obama enjoys an edge over Republicans in the battle for public support, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. . . .

Washington Post 2/12
75% back letting gays serve openly
Three-quarters of Americans say that they support openly gay people serving in the U.S. military, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, a finding that could lend momentum to the Obama administration's effort to dismantle the policy known as "don't ask, don't tell." . . .

Alan I. Abramowitz 2/11
Does Congressional Popularity Matter?
... Discontent with Congress does not lead to a general tendency to kick out incumbents. Occasionally voters do get upset and give the boot to a large number of incumbents -- but they almost always take out their dissatisfaction on the members of only one party -- the president's party. . . .

Washington Post 2/11
Most Americans are unhappy with government
Two-thirds of Americans are "dissatisfied" or downright "angry" about the way the federal government is working, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

Washington Post 2/10
Republicans gaining political ground on Obama
Republicans have significantly narrowed the gap with Democrats on who is trusted to deal with the country's problems and have sharply reduced several of President Obama's main political advantages, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

David Hill 2/10
Super politics ad ideas
Sunday's Super Bowl audience, the largest in TV history, was more than a giant canvas for ad-makers to paint on. It was also the world's largest focus group and test-bed for advertising research. . . .

Mark Mellman 2/10
Politics of future past
One of the questions often debated, late at night, around the metaphorical campaign campfire, is whether elections are about the past or the future. . . .

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research 2/8
Campaign Finance Reform: Good Policy, Good Politics
Ratings for everyone in Washington are low and voters are deeply pessimistic about the direction the country is heading. Driving those sentiments is the belief that special interests are still running the show and that voters' voices are being drowned out by those who help fund politicians' campaigns. . . .

Des Moines Register 2/7
33% of Iowans support 'tea party' movement
A third of Iowans from across the political spectrum say they support the "tea party" movement, sounding a loud chorus of dissatisfaction with government, according to The Des Moines Register's new Iowa Poll. . . .

Tyler Cowen 2/7
Why Politics Is Stuck in the Middle
Economists approach political competition with a simple but potent hypothesis called the "median voter theorem." ... Any politician who strays too far from voters at the philosophical center will soon be out of office. . . .

Washington Post 2/7
Majorities in D.C. back gay marriage, medical marijuana
District residents are generally supportive of the progressive, activist social agenda being pursued by the D.C. Council, putting their stamp of approval on efforts by government leaders to enact policies while Democrats control Congress. . . .

Harvard 2/5
Nearly Half of Americans Believe H1N1 Outbreak is Over
The latest poll from researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health shows that almost half of Americans believe the H1N1 flu outbreak is over (44%), and levels of concern about getting sick with the virus continue to decline. . . .

Gallup 2/5
Democrats Turn More Negative Toward Congress
Congress' job approval rating from Americans fell six points in the past month, from 24% to 18% -- the lowest reading in more than a year. Nearly 8 in 10 (78%) now disapprove. . . .

Gallup 2/5
Obama Approval: Hawaii Warmest to Obama
Of the 50 states, Hawaii gave its native son, President Barack Obama, the highest approval ratings in 2009, with an average of nearly 71% approving of his overall job performance from January through December. . . .

Jonathan Haidt, UVA 2/4
What Is Wrong With Those Tea Partiers?
The truth has triumphed, at least for those attending this week's Tea Party convention in Nashville: Obama is a socialist fascist communist statist Muslim whose healthcare "reform" would destroy the world's greatest healthcare system and force Americans to wait in long lines so that their medical requests could be reviewed by death panels. . . .

Pew Research Center 2/3
Social Media and Young Adults
Since 2006, blogging has dropped among teens and young adults while simultaneously rising among older adults. As the tools and technology embedded in social networking sites change, and use of the sites continues to grow, youth may be exchanging 'macro-blogging' for microblogging with status updates. . . .

Gallup 2/3
Asian-Americans Lean Left Politically
Gallup Daily tracking data reveal that Asian-Americans tend to be more Democratic and much less conservative than the general population in their political views. . . .

Gallup 2/3
Three Deep South States Are the Most Conservative
Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana are the most conservative states, with just under half of the residents in each identifying as politically conservative. Massachusetts and Vermont -- along with the District of Columbia -- have the greatest percentage of self-identified liberals. . . .

Mark Mellman 2/3
Robo-polls and human error
Political pollsters' conceit is that, unlike traditional market researchers, Election Day provides a report card on the quality of our work that reveals unequivocally whether we are right or wrong, accurate or inaccurate. By that standard, IVR, or robo-polls, that use recorded voices, not live interviewers, and ask respondents to push buttons on the phone keypad to record responses, have a pretty good record. . . .

Democracy Corps 2/2
The Economy Growing at Two Different Speeds
Voter reaction to the president's economic discussion in the State of the Union shows that Democrats have a lot to learn about their economic narrative in the coming year. . . .

Washington Post 2/2
Liberals find backing in poll numbers
Progressive groups, worried that Democrats are too cautious, are speaking the language that lawmakers may hear clearest: poll numbers. . . .

Sam Stein 2/1
Luntz Pens Memo To Kill Financial Regulatory Reform
Nine months after he penned a memo laying out the arguments for health care legislation's destruction, Republican message guru Frank Luntz has put together a playbook to help derail financial regulatory reform. . . .

Gallup 2/1
Obama Approval Hits 50%
President Barack Obama's job approval rating is 50% in the most recent three-day Gallup Daily tracking, from Jan. 29-31. This follows 11 straight days of Gallup reporting in which Obama's approval rating was below the 50% mark. . . .

Gallup 2/1
Despite GOP Gains, Most States Remain Blue
Rhode Island and Massachusetts -- along with the District of Columbia -- were the most Democratic U.S. states in 2009, based on their residents' stated political affiliations. Wyoming and Utah ranked as the two most Republican states in the nation. . . .

George Skelton 2/1
California's independent streak
... California may be a Democratic state, but it's not true blue. And the best barometer of how it will vote in any general election is the fast-growing faction of independents. . . .

Vanity Fair 2/1
The 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair Poll
... Given a choice of changes to the Constitution, nearly half of us say, Leave it alone. And after abolishing the Electoral College (the most popular change), the two major parties-- reliably --split: Democrats next choose "Limit the right to bear arms," and Republicans opt for "Lessen separation of church and state." ...

Washington Post 1/31
D.C. Mayor Fenty's approval ratings plummet
Mayor Adrian M. Fenty's approval rating has plummeted over the past two years, with support eroding in all parts of the city and across demographic groups, particularly among African Americans, according to a new Washington Post poll. . . .

Anthony Salvanto & Mark Gersh 1/29
Senate Outlook: GOP, Dems Eye Races Coast to Coast
... Senate Democrats come into this year buffeted by the Massachusetts turnover, after being on quite a roll over the last two cycles. ... At this point we see at least eight states that look like they'll host some of the hottest contests -- five of these eight are Democratic-held, three of them are Republican. . . .

ABC News: Gary Langer 1/29
Perspectives on Partisanship
It's been noted this week that partisanship has been running high in views of President Obama's job performance. That's true - but is it new? . . . .

Rhodes Cook 1/28
For Democrats, It's Time to Worry
For Democrats, it is officially time to worry. The party's gubernatorial losses in Virginia and New Jersey last fall could be partially explained away as the states' usual off-year swing to the "out" party. But Republican Scott Brown's come-from-behind victory last week in the special Massachusetts Senate election for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat is something else – a harshly delivered slap in the face from voters in one of the most loyally Democratic states in the country. . . .

CBS News 1/28
83% of Speech Watchers Approve of SOTU Proposals
A large majority of Americans who watched President Obama's State of the Union Address generally approve of the proposals he outlined in his speech, according to a CBS News Poll conducted online by Knowledge Networks immediately after the President's address. . . .

Democracy Corps 1/28
Obama Resonates with Swing Voters
In his first State of the Union address tonight, Barack Obama demonstrated a clear understanding of the problems facing the country and outlined a path forward that swing voters want to see their members of Congress follow. . . .

Ramesh Ponnuru 1/27
State of the Union: Right-Leaning
President Obama will be delivering his State of the Union address tonight to an increasingly conservative electorate. A new poll of 1,000 likely voters, done by John McLaughlin and Associates for the National Review Institute, finds voters skeptical of big government, hostile to the health-care legislation being considered on Capitol Hill, and interested in conservative alternatives. . . .

Gallup 1/27
Americans on State of the Nation: Better, but Not Great
Americans' opinions about the state of the nation have improved in several respects since President Barack Obama took office a year ago. Still, today's ratings are on the order of less bad rather than positive. . . .

Democracy Corps 1/27
Economic Crisis and Populist Revolt at a Boiling Point
... Voters are increasingly consumed by unemployment and want their leaders to address that priority, yet leaders in Washington seem polarized and gridlocked, pushing a health care bill now defined by special deals rather than its benefits and the reforms that voters want. . . .

Kaiser Foundation: Drew Altman 1/27
The Message from Massachusetts
The Massachusetts special election has roiled the political world and profoundly affected the prospects for health reform just when it looked like passage was a lock. ... [N]ot since powerful Ways and Means Chair Wilbur Mills fell into the Tidal Basin with Fanne Foxe in 1974, halting momentum on a deal on health reform that seemed ready to happen, has something this unexpected so affected the prospects for health reform at the eleventh hour. . . .

Gallup 1/27
News Media Get Tepid Ratings as Obama 'Watchdog'
Most Americans appear unimpressed by the media's performance as government watchdog in the first year of the Obama administration. . . .

Gallup 1/27
President's Support Usually Unaffected by SOTU
As Barack Obama prepares to give his first State of the Union address as president, a review of Gallup historical data suggests these speeches rarely affect a president's public standing in a meaningful way. . . .

ABC News: Gary Langer 1/27
In Race and Politics, Context Helps
With his first State of the Union address looming, dissections of President Obama's approval ratings are in full force – with some analyses in need of context. The often vexed question of race is a prime example. . . .

Mark Mellman 1/27
Meaning of Mass. election
It is by now axiomatic that Massachusetts voters were in revolt last week. But who, or what, were they rebelling against? Were they using their ballots to attack President Barack Obama? Not according to the data. . . .

Pew Research Center 1/26
It's All About Jobs, Except When It's Not
As the Obama administration redoubles its effort to communicate its concerns about unemployment in the face of sagging approval ratings, a look at the connection between the rise and fall of joblessness and the political fortunes of past presidents in the modern era is instructive. . . .

Independent Women's Voice (pdf) 1/26
Mass. Special Election: What Happened, What It Means
The Massachusetts Special Election last week upended "conventional wisdom" about "who can/might/should/ will win" and called into question just how "blue" politically -- Massachusetts, and the seat held by the late Ted Kennedy --really are. . . .

Gallup 1/25
Obama's Approval Most Polarized for 1st-Year President
The 65 percentage-point gap between Democrats' (88%) and Republicans' (23%) average job approval ratings for Barack Obama is easily the largest for any president in his first year in office, greatly exceeding the prior high of 52 points for Bill Clinton. . . .

Pew Research Center 1/25
Public's Priorities for 2010: Economy, Jobs, Terrorism
As Barack Obama begins his second year in office, the public's priorities for the president and Congress remain much as they were one year ago. Strengthening the nation's economy and improving the job situation continue to top the list. . . .

Gallup 1/23
Uptick in Healthy Eating
As many Americans set an eye on healthier eating in 2010, Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index data reveal mixed results on two key metrics in 2009 compared with 2008. . . .

Glen Bolger & Neil Newhouse 1/23
Republicans can win the midterm elections
After stinging defeats in the 2006 midterms and the 2008 presidential election, we Republicans were supposedly condemned to a lengthy penance in the political wilderness, searching for our souls and groping for big ideas to rival the new Democratic juggernaut. Well, that didn't take long, did it? . . .

Washington Post 1/22
Brown's Massachusetts victory fueled by frustration
Dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, antipathy toward federal government activism and opposition to the Democrats' health-care proposals drove the upset election of Republican Sen.-elect Scott Brown of Massachusetts, according to a new post-election survey of Massachusetts voters. . . .

Pioneer Press 1/22
That 'census' form in your mailbox? It's from the GOP
Have you filled out your "2010 Congressional District Census" yet? It's arriving this week in mailboxes in Minnesota, New York and Washington state. At first glance, it might appear to be related to the upcoming once-a-decade count of every man, woman and child in the United States. It's not. . . .

KRC Research 1/22
American Public Response to the Earthquake in Haiti
Nearly half of American families are donating money to Haitian relief efforts and a similar proportion are sending their contributions online or via text messaging, according to a poll released today by KRC Research. . . .

Charlie Cook 1/22
An Ear-Splitting Alarm
Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown's victory in Tuesday's special election for the Senate should serve as an air-raid siren for the Democratic Party. Warnings began sounding last summer, and by now it seems impossible for Democrats to deny that something has gone terribly wrong for their party. . . .

Gallup 1/22
Public: Campaign Money Is "Free Speech"
Americans' broad views about corporate spending in elections generally accord with the Supreme Court's decision Thursday that abolished some decades-old restrictions on corporate political activity. . . .

Ronald Brownstein 1/22
A Formula For Futility
After Republican Scott Brown's stunning victory in Massachusetts' Senate race, one dreary lesson for President Obama -- and, for that matter, his successors -- is now unambiguous: Stick to school uniforms. . . .

New America Media 1/22
Ethnic Voters May Save CA Democrats
If Republicans want to build on Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts' Senate race in historically blue California this fall, they'll have to overcome the state GOP's inability to win over ethnic voters, or hope those voters stay home. That's the implication of findings from a new Field Poll of California voters released this week in collaboration with New America Media. . . .

USA Today 1/22
Regroup on health care, most say
A majority of Americans say President Obama and congressional Democrats should suspend work on the health care bill that has been on the verge of passage and consider alternatives that would draw more Republican support, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds. . . .

AFL-CIO/Hart Research Associates (pdf)
Election Night Survey of MA Senate Voters
This was a working-class revolt, and it reveals the danger to Democrats of not successfully addressing workers' economic concerns. . . .

Gallup 1/21
New Normal Psychology Dominates Consumer Behavior
Consumer psychology continues to feel the aftershocks of the financial crisis, as the "new normal" still dominates self-reported spending behaviors. . . .

Washington Post 1/21
Americans' bias against Jews, Muslims linked
A poll about Americans' views on Islam concludes that the strongest predictor of prejudice against Muslims is whether a person holds similar feelings about Jews. . . .

Neil Newhouse 1/20
Massachusetts: Scott Brown’s Twelve Keys To Victory
... In addition to the #1 factor, which is Scott himself and his ability to connect with voters, following are the ten OTHER keys to Scott Brown's victory. . . .

Pew Research Center 1/20
Most View Census Positively, But Some Have Doubts
As the federal government gears up for its decennial count of the country's population, most Americans think the census is very important and say they will definitely participate. But acceptance of and enthusiasm for the census are not universal. . . .

Politico 1/20
Massachusetts exit poll: Health care mattered
Scott Brown's opposition to congressional health care legislation was the most important issue that fueled his U.S. Senate victory in Massachusetts, according to exit poll data collected following the Tuesday special election. . . .

Gallup 1/20
Approval Typically Falls 5 Pts in a President's 2nd Year
Most of the last eight elected U.S. presidents, starting with Dwight Eisenhower, saw their approval rating drop in the second year of their presidency -- on average by five percentage points. . . .

Pew 1/20
Haiti Dominates Public's Consciousness
... In the days following the earthquake that struck Haiti, 18% of Americans say they or someone in their household made a donation to help those affected by the catastrophe and 30% say they are planning to make a donation. . . .

CNN 1/20
Coakley Pollster hits back
Martha Coakley's top pollster Celinda Lake has a warning for Democrats, insisting that tonight's loss is part of an anti-incumbent fever that threatens to take down Democrats across the nation. "There's a wave here. The first shore was New Jersey and Virginia," Lake told CNN Tuesday, referring to Democratic losses in the governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia. "The second was Massachusetts, and it's coming to the island now, so we'd better do something about it." . . .

Washington Post 1/20
Democrats on wrong end of the politics of discontent
President Obama and the Democrats rode a wave of anger aimed at the presidency of George W. Bush to victories in 2006 and 2008. Now, a year to the day after Obama was sworn into office, in a dramatic reversal of fortunes, populist anger has turned sharply against the president and his party. . . .

Mark Mellman 1/20
Effect of polls on races
I'm frequently asked whether polls affect election outcomes. My typical response is, "Not really." Writing Monday, before the Massachusetts outcome is known, I just may have found a race that was dramatically affected by polling. . . .

CBS News 1/19
Obama Ends First Year with 50% Approval Rating
... Americans think Mr. Obama has had limited success in meeting his campaign themes of bringing change to Washington and getting past partisanship. A sharp partisan divide clouds many policy evaluations in this poll. . . .

Washington Post 1/19
MA Senate election could be harbinger for health care
Democrat Martha Coakley's struggle to stave off a potentially devastating defeat in Tuesday's special Senate election in Massachusetts marks a critical turning point in the year-long debate about national health-care reform. Regardless of the outcome of that race, the two parties appeared headed toward a monumental clash over health care in the coming midterm elections. . . .

Gallup 1/18
MA Leans Democratic, but Nearly Half Are Independent
As Massachusetts prepares for its high-visibility special Senate election on Jan. 19, a new Gallup analysis shows that the state has significantly more residents identifying as political independents (49%) than as Democrats (35%). . . .

Gallup 1/18
Obama Averages 57% Approval in First Year in Office
Barack Obama averaged 57% job approval during his first year in office. Compared with the first-year averages of other presidents elected to office since World War II, Obama's average ranks on the low end, tied with Ronald Reagan's, but better than Bill Clinton's historical low of 49%. . . .

Nancy L. Cohen 1/17
2010 as 1994? Relax, Democrats
... The 2010 midterms will not be a repeat of 1994. Why? Because almost everything we think we know about the 1994 election is wrong. . . .

Washington Post 1/17
Growing disappointment over Obama's performance
A year into his presidency, President Obama faces a polarized nation and souring public assessments of his efforts to change Washington, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. . . .

New York Times: Adam Nagourney 1/16
Democrats Fret That Public Is Dissatisfied
... [M]ost ominously for Democrats contemplating the midterm elections, the battle here suggests an emerging dangerous dynamic: that Mr. Obama has energized Republican activists who think he has overstepped with health care and the economic stimulus, while demoralizing Democrats who think he has not lived up to his promise. . . .

Charles M. Blow 1/16
Lady BlahBlah
... According to an analysis of New York Times and CBS News polls, Obama has the lowest approval rating among whites at the end of his first year in office than any president in the 30 years that The Times and CBS News have collected such data. And the gap between Obama and the others is significant, ranging from 10 to 36 percentage points. . . .

Bill Schneider 1/15
A Populist Eruption In Massachusetts?
Imagine this OMG moment for Democrats: a Massachusetts Republican wins Edward Kennedy's Senate seat. What an upset that would be. It's JFK's old seat, for goodness sake. . . .

Ronald Brownstein 1/15
A Season Of Discontent
One year after President Obama took office, the green shoots of optimism that accompanied his inauguration are withering, pummeled by gale-force discontent and anxiety over the prolonged recession, a new Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll indicates. . . .

Center for Deliberative Democracy (pdf) 1/15
Hard Times, Hard Choices: Michigan Citizens Deliberate
... Results of Michigan's first Deliberative Poll show what the people of the state would think if they could all become more informed and discuss the issues in depth. ... The resulting changes of opinion in the final survey offer some dramatic recommendations for both policymakers and the public. . . .

Pew Research Center 1/14
Obama Image Unscathed By Terrorism Controversy
In the aftermath of the failed Christmas Day terrorist attack on a Detroit-bound airliner, the government’s ratings for reducing the threat of terrorism have slipped. . . .

McClatchy 1/13
Most Americans would trim liberties to be safer
After a recent attempted terrorist attack set off a debate about full-body X-rays at airports, a new McClatchy-Ipsos poll finds that Americans lean more toward giving up some of their liberty in exchange for more safety. . . .

Gallup 1/12
Healthcare Bill Support Ticks Up; Public Still Divided
Americans' support for U.S. healthcare legislation has crept up incrementally since early November. Now, slightly more Americans want their member of Congress to vote in favor of such legislation rather than against it, 49% vs. 46% -- a first since October. . . .

Pew Research Center 1/12
Blacks Upbeat about Black Progress, Prospects
Despite the bad economy, blacks' assessments about the state of black progress in America have improved more dramatically during the past two years than at any time in the past quarter century, according to a comprehensive new nationwide Pew Research Center survey on race. . . .

CBS News: Charles Cooper 1/12
The Irony Behind Obama's Poll Numbers
In a numbers-driven society, nuanced reflections about presidential job approval will only go so far. In the end, it always comes down to the final numbers - and the newest poll numbers about Barack Obama are not good. . . .

Gallup 1/11
Mormons Most Conservative Major Religious Group
Members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, or Mormons, are the most conservative major religious group in the country, with 59% identifying as conservative, 31% as moderate, and 8% as liberal. . . .

Politico 1/11
Coakley lead solid in Democratic poll
Martha Coakley enjoys a solid, double-digit lead in the Massachusetts Senate special election, according to an internal Democratic poll obtained by POLITICO. The survey, conducted by longtime Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, has Democrat Coakley, the state attorney general, leading state Republican Sen. Scott Brown 50 percent to 36 percent. . . .

ABC News 1/11
Views Improve Sharply in Afghanistan
Hopes for a brighter future have soared in Afghanistan, bolstered by a broad rally in support for the country's re-elected president, improved development efforts and economic gains. Blame on the United States and NATO for violence has eased – but their overall ratings remain weak. . . .

New York Times 1/11
Voters Crave Reform of Health Care and Congress
... People from both sides of the political spectrum -- and apolitical consumers -- said they were deeply skeptical about the health care bill being put together by Congress and the White House. The concern illustrates the challenge Mr. Obama and Democratic lawmakers face in trying to meld House and Senate bills in a way that can be sold to the public. . . .

Washington Post 1/10
Is race a factor in opposition to health reform?
... According to a recent study by researchers from Stanford and the University of California at Irvine, negative views of the president do appear be correlated with racial bias. . . .

Charles M. Blow 1/9
G.O.P. Grief and Grieving
... According to polls by The New York Times, conservative identification was slightly higher on the verge of Bill Clinton's first-term election and Barack Obama's election than it was on the verge of George W. Bush's first-term election. . . .

Ronald Brownstein 1/8
A Dreary Decade's Long Shadow
... Terror loomed over the decade from start to finish. So did excessive partisan conflict, over security and everything else. That may be two reasons that polls suggest the "Aughts" couldn't end soon enough for most Americans. . . .

Bill Schneider 1/8
The Deepening Partisan Divide
... In 2008, Barack Obama got elected pledging to heal the nation's wounds. But in his very first year, the divisions in the country and in Congress worsened. . . .

Gallup 1/8
More Americans Went Uninsured in 2009 Than in 2008
While President Obama works with House and Senate leaders to hammer out a final healthcare bill before the State of the Union address, the legislation's goal of expanding coverage to the uninsured will need to cover a larger pool of Americans who are without health insurance. . . .

Alan Abramowitz 1/7
Open seats and U.S. House elections
... An examination of data from all 32 House elections since World War II reveals that the relationship between open seats and the outcomes of these elections is actually fairly weak. . . .

Gallup 1/7
Conservatives Finish 2009 as No. 1 Ideological Group
The increased conservatism that Gallup first identified among Americans last June persisted throughout the year, so that the final year-end political ideology figures confirm Gallup's initial reporting: conservatives (40%) outnumbered both moderates (36%) and liberals (21%) across the nation in 2009. . . .

Gallup 1/6
Democratic Support Dips Below Majority Level in 2009
The year 2009 marked the end of a three-year run of majority Democratic support among U.S. adults. Last year, an average of 49.0% of Americans identified as Democrats or said they leaned Democratic, the party's first yearly average below 50% since 2005. . . .

Washington Post 1/6
Results of polls on job satisfaction are at odds
If you're feeling unhappy with your job, you have lots of company. Or you're in a distinct minority. Depends on what poll you read. . . .

Gallup 1/6
Obama Starts 2010 With 50% Approval
President Barack Obama begins his second year as president with 50% of Americans approving and 44% disapproving of his overall job performance. This is well below the 68% approval rating Obama received in his first few days as president, and matches his average for all of December -- which included many days when public support for him fell slightly below that important symbolic threshold. . . .

Mark Mellman 1/6
What those polls really mean
One of the seemingly intractable problems in healthcare polling is deciphering exactly what voters are responding to when asked whether they favor or oppose "reform." Most polls fail to divulge any substantive content of reform plans. . . .
< Health care poll roundup >

Thomas B. Edsall 1/4
Dems' Only Hope: Make The Race About The Other Guy
Democratic incumbents face the most threatening political environment since the Republican landslide of 1994 -- and they know it. ... It's not that voters are suddenly becoming big fans of the Republican Party -- its poll numbers are falling just as rapidly as the Democrats' -- but political scientists and strategists from across the spectrum agree that simply by virtue of being the opposition, the GOP is positioned to make large gains on November 2. . . .

Vanity Fair 1/3
The 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair Poll
Americans like to think of themselves as a commonsensical people -- which, needless to say, often flies in the face of the evidence. And yet, deep down, we know that we're a seething mass of inanities and contradictions -- which demonstrates common sense. How else to wrap the mind around this month's poll? . . .

New York Times 1/3
Americans Doing More, Buying Less
... Quietly but noticeably over the past year, Americans have rejiggered their lives to elevate experiences over things. Because of the Great Recession, a recent New York Times/CBS News poll has found, nearly half of Americans said they were spending less time buying nonessentials, and more than half are spending less money in stores and online. . . .

Washington Post 1/3
Detroit: Grim conditions but optimistic outlooks
... In a new Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation-Harvard University poll about Detroit, almost all residents of the main three-county metropolitan area see their economy as in ruins. About half say this is a bad place to raise a family; as many describe a declining standard of living, swelling debt, deteriorating neighborhoods and a brutal job market. A steadfast optimism, however, shines through the poll. . . .

Politico 1/2/2010
Low favorables: Dems rip Rasmussen
Democrats are turning their fire on Scott Rasmussen, the prolific independent pollster whose surveys on elections, President Obama’s popularity and a host of other issues are surfacing in the media with increasing frequency. . . .

[ See earlier items ]

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