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   White House 2008: Republican Nomination         See also: Rating the contenders


Polls listed chronologically.

STATE POLLS are in our subscriber area. INFO     

.

         

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Aug. 23-24, 2008. N=432 registered Republicans nationwide. MoE ± 4.5.

.

"If it were up to you, who would you rather see the Republican Party choose -- John McCain or someone else -- as its nominee for president?"

.

McCain Someone
Else
Unsure    
% % %    

8/23-24/08

57

42

1

   

6/4-5/08

55

44

1

   

 

Gallup Poll daily tracking. Three-day rolling average. N=approx. 1,000 Republican and Republican-leaning voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

 

Preference for Republican Nominee:

 

 

McCain Huckabee Paul Other/
Unsure
Romney Giuliani

Survey end date

% % % % % %

 

3/3/08

62

21

5

13

n/a

n/a

3/2/08

64

19

5

12

n/a

n/a

3/1/08

63

22

4

12

n/a

n/a

2/29/08

62

24

3

11

n/a

n/a

2/28/08

60

26

3

11

n/a

n/a

2/27/08

61

24

3

12

n/a

n/a

2/26/08

63

22

4

11

n/a

n/a

2/25/08

64

20

5

11

n/a

n/a

2/24/08

63

21

6

10

n/a

n/a

2/23/08

65

20

6

10

n/a

n/a

2/22/08

63

20

6

11

n/a

n/a

2/20/08

62

22

5

11

n/a

n/a

2/19/08

58

24

5

12

n/a

n/a

2/18/08

54

26

6

14

n/a

n/a

2/17/08

54

26

6

14

n/a

n/a

2/16/08

53

29

6

13

n/a

n/a

2/15/08

54

28

5

13

n/a

n/a

2/14/08

53

28

5

14

n/a

n/a

2/13/08

51

29

5

15

n/a

n/a

2/12/08

51

29

6

15

n/a

n/a

2/11/08

52

28

5

16

n/a

n/a

2/10/08

56

25

6

14

n/a

n/a

2/9/08

57

23

5

15

n/a

n/a

2/8/08

53

21

5

12

10

n/a

2/7/08

46

19

5

12

18

n/a

2/6/08

40

21

3

9

26

n/a

2/5/08

41

21

4

10

25

n/a

2/4/08

41

21

4

10

24

n/a

2/3/08

45

17

4

9

25

n/a

2/2/08

43

18

4

11

24

n/a

2/1/08

44

16

5

11

24

n/a

1/31/08

39

17

5

13

24

3

1/30/08

37

17

4

13

22

7

1/29/08

32

18

4

15

21

11

1/28/08

31

17

4

16

19

13

1/27/08

29

18

5

15

21

13

1/26/08

31

18

5

14

21

12

1/25/08

30

20

5

12

20

13

1/24/08

31

20

5

12

19

14


 

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs. Feb. 22-24, 2008. N=381 Republicans and leaners nationwide. MoE ± 5.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?"

.

2/22-24/08        
%        
John McCain

53

       
Mike Huckabee

27

       
Ron Paul

8

       
Other (vol.)

1

       
None (vol.)

7

       
Unsure

4

       

.

2/7-10/08 1/15-17/08 12/3-5/07 11/5-7/07 10/1-3/07
% % % % %
John McCain

44

22

13

13

12

Mike Huckabee

30

16

18

10

7

Ron Paul

9

4

3

n/a

n/a

Other (vol.)

1

1

1

2

-

None (vol.)

12

8

7

7

9

Unsure

4

10

9

8

8

Mitt Romney

n/a

16

12

12

9

Rudy Giuliani

n/a

14

26

29

25

Fred Thompson

n/a

9

11

19

22

Newt Gingrich

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

7

Sam Brownback

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

.

9/21-25/07 9/10-12/07 7/9-11/07 6/4-6/07 3/5-7/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

21

24

21

27

35

John McCain

17

15

15

19

22

Fred Thompson

17

19

19

17

n/a

Mitt Romney

10

7

11

10

8

Mike Huckabee

7

5

3

2

3

Newt Gingrich

5

6

5

7

11

Sam Brownback

2

2

1

3

3

Other (vol.)

1

-

2

1

-

None (vol.)

7

9

8

4

6

Unsure

13

13

15

10

12


 

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Feb. 21-24, 2008. N=829 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE ± 4.

.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who are running in the Republican primary for president. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2008, or if you would support someone else. . . ." Names rotated. Results from 9/07 & earlier calculated using second choice of Gingrich supporters.

       
2/21-24/08        
%        
John McCain

61

       
Mike Huckabee

23

       
Alan Keyes

4

       
Ron Paul

4

       
Someone else

3

       
None (vol.)/Unsure

6

       
       
2/8-10/08 1/30 - 2/2/08 1/10-13/08 1/4-6/08 12/14-16/07
% % % % %
John McCain

53

42

33

19

14

Mike Huckabee

27

18

19

25

16

Ron Paul

8

5

3

4

3

Alan Keyes

2

2

1

-

3

Someone else

2

2

1

2

-

None (vol.)/Unsure

7

7

7

9

9

Mitt Romney

n/a

24

11

9

14

Tom Tancredo

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

Rudy Giuliani

n/a

n/a

13

20

27

Fred Thompson

n/a

n/a

9

12

14

Duncan Hunter

n/a

n/a

2

1

-

       
11/30 -
12/2/07
11/11-14/07 11/2-4/07 10/12-14/07 10/4-7/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

25

28

34

32

32

Mike Huckabee

16

10

6

6

7

John McCain

15

13

18

14

16

Fred Thompson

15

19

17

18

20

Mitt Romney

12

12

14

10

9

Ron Paul

4

5

1

5

2

Duncan Hunter

1

1

1

1

1

Tom Tancredo

1

2

-

2

1

Someone else

1

2

1

2

1

None (vol.)/Unsure

10

9

9

9

11

Sam Brownback

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

1

       
9/14-16/07 9/7-8/07 8/13-16/07 8/3-5/07 7/12-15/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

30

34

32

33

33

Fred Thompson

22

22

19

21

21

John McCain

18

15

11

16

16

Mitt Romney

7

10

14

8

8

Mike Huckabee

4

5

4

2

2

Ron Paul

4

1

3

2

3

Sam Brownback

2

2

1

1

2

Duncan Hunter

2

-

2

1

1

Tom Tancredo

1

1

1

1

-

Someone else

1

1

1

2

1

None (vol.)/Unsure

10

8

11

10

11

Chuck Hagel

n/a

1

1

1

-

Tommy Thompson

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

1

Jim Gilmore

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

-

.

7/6-8/07 6/11-14/07 6/1-3/07 5/10-13/07 5/4-6/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

32

29

35

32

36

Fred Thompson

21

21

12

12

14

John McCain

16

20

20

24

21

Mitt Romney

9

8

14

10

9

Duncan Hunter

3

2

1

-

1

Mike Huckabee

2

3

3

1

1

Tom Tancredo

2

1

2

1

1

Tommy Thompson

2

2

1

1

2

Sam Brownback

1

2

1

2

1

Chuck Hagel

1

1

-

-

1

Jim Gilmore

-

1

-

1

1

Ron Paul

-

2

1

-

-

Someone else

-

-

1

2

1

None (vol.)/Unsure

10

8

10

13

11

.

4/13-15/07 4/2-5/07 3/23-25/07 3/2-4/07 2/9-11/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

38

42

34

49

42

John McCain

24

18

22

21

25

Fred Thompson

11

12

13

n/a

n/a

Mitt Romney

10

7

4

10

6

Jim Gilmore

2

-

1

-

2

George Pataki

2

2

-

1

1

Mike Huckabee

2

1

2

1

2

Ron Paul

2

2

1

n/a

n/a

Tommy Thompson

1

3

2

2

2

Sam Brownback

1

1

3

1

4

Duncan Hunter

1

1

1

1

2

Tom Tancredo

-

2

1

1

2

Chuck Hagel

-

1

-

-

1

Someone else

1

1

2

2

2

None (vol.)

2

2

4

3

2

All/Any (vol.)

-

-

1

-

-

Unsure

4

5

9

8

8


 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Feb. 20-24, 2008. N=482 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE ± 5.

.

"Which of the following Republican candidates would be your first choice for president: [see below]?" If unsure: "Just as of today, would you say you lean toward [see below]?" Names rotated

.

2/20-24/08 1/30 - 2/2/08 1/9-13/08 12/19-30/07  
% % % %  
John McCain 61 42 29 22  
Mike Huckabee 23 20 20 17  
Ron Paul 7 5 6 4  

Other (vol.)

1 - - 1  

None (vol.)

5 3 1 2  

Unsure

3 8 5 12  
Mitt Romney n/a 22 17 12  
Rudy Giuliani n/a n/a 13 20  
Fred Thompson n/a n/a 9 9  
Duncan Hunter n/a n/a n/a 1  

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Feb. 19-20, 2008. N=294 Republican voters nationwide. MoE ± 6.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were [see below]?" Names rotated. Results from 9/07 & earlier calculated using second choice of Gingrich supporters.

.

2/19-20/08 1/30-31/08      
% %      
John McCain

51

48

     
Mike Huckabee

34

19

     
Ron Paul

7

5

     
Other (vol.)

4

-

     
Unsure

4

5

     
Wouldn't vote (vol.)

1

2

     
Mitt Romney

n/a

20

     
       
12/18-19/07 11/13-14/07 10/23-24/07 10/9-10/07 9/11-12/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

20

33

31

29

34

Mike Huckabee

19

8

5

5

2

John McCain

19

17

12

12

16

Mitt Romney

11

8

7

11

8

Fred Thompson

10

12

17

16

22

Ron Paul

3

3

1

2

2

Duncan Hunter

2

3

3

1

3

Tom Tancredo

1

1

2

2

1

Other (vol.)

-

-

2

1

1

Unsure

13

13

16

17

11

Wouldn't vote (vol.)

1

2

4

3

1

Sam Brownback

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

1

Chuck Hagel

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

       
8/21-22/07 7/17-18/07 6/26-27/07 6/5-6/07 5/15-16/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

30

27

31

24

25

Fred Thompson

15

17

18

14

9

Mitt Romney

12

10

8

12

10

John McCain

7

17

18

15

18

Mike Huckabee

3

3

3

3

1

Ron Paul

3

2

-

2

1

Sam Brownback

1

1

1

-

2

Tom Tancredo

1

1

1

1

1

Chuck Hagel

-

-

1

1

-

Duncan Hunter

-

-

1

1

1

Other (vol.)

2

2

1

-

2

Unsure

24

20

12

21

26

Wouldn't vote (vol.)

3

2

3

3

2

Tommy Thompson

n/a

1

2

3

2

Jim Gilmore

n/a

n/a

-

1

1


 

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. conducted by Financial Dynamics. Feb. 14-17, 2008. N=266 Republican primary voters nationwide. MoE ± 6.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates were [see below]?" If "All": "If you absolutely had to choose, which one person would you support?" Names rotated

.

2/14-17/08 1/10-12/08 12/10-14/07 8/22-26/07 7/19-22/07
% % % % %
John McCain 53 32 10 12 17
Mike Huckabee 25 17 17 4 1
Ron Paul 7 4 7 2 2
None of these (vol.) 2 3 4 2 3
Other (vol.) 3 - 1 1 2
All of these (vol.) - - 1 1 1
Unsure 10 9 14 18 21
Mitt Romney n/a 15 13 15 8
Rudy Giuliani n/a 12 21 27 20
Fred Thompson n/a 7 11 17 19
Duncan Hunter n/a 2 1 1 -
Tom Tancredo n/a n/a - - 1
Sam Brownback n/a n/a n/a - 4
Tommy Thompson n/a n/a n/a n/a 1

 

Reuters/Zogby Poll. Feb. 13-16, 2008. N=434 likely Republican primary voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.8.

.

Preference for Republican Presidential Nominee:

.

2/13-16/08 1/10-11/08 12/12-14/07    
% % %    
John McCain

47

28

12

   
Mike Huckabee

32

23

22

   
Ron Paul

7

4

4

   
Someone else

7

-

-

   
Unsure

8

9

9

   
Fred Thompson

n/a

14

13

   
Mitt Romney

n/a

13

16

   
Rudy Giuliani

n/a

9

23

   
Duncan Hunter

n/a

-

1

   
Tom Tancredo

n/a

n/a

1

   

.

11/14-17/07 10/10-14/07 9/13-16/07 7/12-14/07 3/22-26/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

29

28

27

21

27

Fred Thompson

15

20

24

22

9

Mike Huckabee

11

4

3

5

1

John McCain

9

8

13

9

13

Mitt Romney

9

14

7

11

9

Ron Paul

5

3

2

1

3

Duncan Hunter

1

-

1

1

1

Tom Tancredo

-

2

1

-

1

Someone else

1

2

2

2

4

Unsure

21

18

20

25

28

Sam Brownback

n/a

1

2

2

2

Tommy Thompson

n/a

n/a

n/a

-

1

Jim Gilmore

n/a

n/a

n/a

-

n/a

Chuck Hagel

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1


 

American Research Group poll. Feb. 9-13, 2008. N=600 likely Republican primary and caucus voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential preference primary/caucus were being held today between [see below], for whom would you vote: [see below], someone else, or are you undecided?" Names rotated

.

2/9-13/08 1/9-12/08      
% %      
John McCain

54

25

     
Mike Huckabee

31

19

     
Ron Paul

3

5

     
Unsure

12

11

     
Rudy Giuliani

n/a

18

     
Mitt Romney

n/a

17

     
Fred Thompson

n/a

4

     
Duncan Hunter

n/a

1

     
Alan Keyes

n/a

-

     

.

12/9-12/07 11/9-12/07 10/9-12/07 9/9-12/07 8/9-12/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

21

25

24

24

27

Mike Huckabee

21

6

6

4

3

John McCain

18

12

14

14

13

Mitt Romney

16

21

15

9

16

Fred Thompson

6

17

16

23

16

Ron Paul

5

4

2

1

1

Duncan Hunter

1

1

2

1

1

Tom Tancredo

1

1

2

2

1

Alan Keyes

-

1

1

n/a

n/a

Unsure

11

12

17

15

14

Sam Brownback

n/a

n/a

1

1

1

Newt Gingrich

n/a

n/a

n/a

6

7

Tommy Thompson

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

.

7/9-12/07 6/9-12/07 5/9-12/07 4/9-12/07 3/2-5/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

30

24

28

27

34

Fred Thompson

17

15

6

9

n/a

John McCain

14

20

24

23

30

Newt Gingrich

10

12

13

10

12

Mitt Romney

10

10

8

12

7

Sam Brownback

1

1

1

1

1

Jim Gilmore

1

1

1

-

1

Chuck Hagel

1

1

1

1

1

Mike Huckabee

1

1

1

1

1

Duncan Hunter

1

1

1

-

-

Ron Paul

1

1

1

-

1

Tom Tancredo

1

1

1

1

1

Tommy Thompson

1

1

1

1

1

George Pataki

-

-

-

-

1

Unsure

11

11

13

14

9


 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Feb. 6-7, 2008. N=463 registered Republicans and leaners nationwide. MoE ± 5.

.

Preference for Republican Nominee:

.

%        
John McCain

51

       
Mike Huckabee

32

       
Ron Paul

6

       
Other/Unsure

11

       

.

%        
John McCain

57

       
Mike Huckabee

37

       
Other/Unsure

6

       

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Feb. 1-3, 2008. N=412 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE ± 5.

.

"Please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president: [see below]?" Names rotated. Results from 9/07 & earlier calculated using second choice of Gingrich supporters.

.

2/1-3/08 1/14-17/08 1/9-10/08    
% % %    
John McCain

44

29

34

   
Mitt Romney

29

19

14

   
Mike Huckabee

18

20

21

   
Ron Paul

6

6

5

   

Unsure

2

4

2

   
Rudy Giuliani

n/a

14

18

   
Fred Thompson

n/a

9

6

   
Duncan Hunter

n/a

1

1

   

.

12/6-9/07 11/2-4/07 10/12-14/07 9/7-9/07 8/6-8/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

24

28

27

28

29

Mike Huckabee

22

10

5

5

3

Mitt Romney

16

11

13

11

12

John McCain

13

16

17

15

16

Fred Thompson

10

19

19

27

22

Ron Paul

6

5

2

1

2

Duncan Hunter

2

4

3

1

-

Tom Tancredo

1

3

1

2

2

Unsure

6

5

11

8

10

Sam Brownback

n/a

n/a

1

2

3

Tommy Thompson

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

.

6/22-24/07 5/4-6/07 4/10-12/07 3/9-11/07 1/19-21/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

31

25

30

38

35

Fred Thompson

21

15

12

n/a

n/a

John McCain

19

24

24

19

27

Mitt Romney

11

11

10

10

8

Mike Huckabee

2

3

1

2

1

Ron Paul

2

1

1

2

1

Sam Brownback

1

2

1

2

3

Tom Tancredo

1

2

2

1

2

Tommy Thompson

1

2

1

1

1

Jim Gilmore

-

3

1

2

3

Duncan Hunter

-

2

-

-

1

Unsure

11

9

13

18

17

George Pataki

n/a

n/a

2

3

3

Chuck Hagel

n/a

n/a

1

2

1


 

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. Jan. 31-Feb. 2, 2008. N=308 Republican primary voters nationwide. MoE ± 5.6.

.

"I am going to read a list of people who might seek the Republican nomination for president in 2008. I would like you to tell me who would be your FIRST CHOICE for the nomination. . . ."  Names rotated

.

1/31 - 2/2/08 12/15-17/07 11/8-11/07 9/13-16/07  
% % % %  
John McCain

39

12

12

15

 
Mitt Romney

24

14

12

8

 
Mike Huckabee

18

18

8

4

 
Ron Paul

6

11

6

3

 
Other (vol.)

2

3

2

2

 
Unsure

12

8

16

17

 
Rudy Giuliani

n/a

16

29

27

 
Fred Thompson

n/a

12

12

18

 
Tom Tancredo

n/a

3

3

-

 
Duncan Hunter

n/a

3

1

-

 
Newt Gingrich

n/a

n/a

n/a

5

 
Sam Brownback

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

 

.

8/2-5/07 6/21-23/07 6/15-17/07 5/11-13/07 4/27-29/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

26

20

20

25

28

John McCain

16

20

16

24

21

Fred Thompson

14

14

15

8

10

Newt Gingrich

8

5

3

7

6

Mitt Romney

7

10

7

9

12

Duncan Hunter

2

-

1

-

1

Tommy Thompson

2

3

3

2

2

Jim Gilmore

1

1

1

1

-

Chuck Hagel

1

1

1

1

1

Mike Huckabee

1

2

2

2

2

Tom Tancredo

-

1

1

-

2

Sam Brownback

-

1

1

1

1

Ron Paul

-

2

2

1

1

Other (vol.)

2

2

3

-

-

Unsure

20

18

24

19

13

.

3/29 - 4/1/07 2/15-18/07 11/9-12/06 8/25-27/06 6/1-4/06
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

34

32

27

32

24

John McCain

17

23

25

20

29

Fred Thompson

10

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Newt Gingrich

9

13

10

10

6

Mitt Romney

6

10

9

5

8

Tommy Thompson

3

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

Mike Huckabee

2

1

2

2

-

George Pataki

2

4

2

1

4

Sam Brownback

1

2

1

1

1

Jim Gilmore

1

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

Chuck Hagel

-

1

-

-

1

Duncan Hunter

-

1

-

n/a

n/a

Ron Paul

-

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Tom Tancredo

-

2

1

3

3

Other (vol.)

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Unsure

13

8

19

14

15

Bill Frist

n/a

n/a

4

8

5

George Allen

n/a

n/a

n/a

4

3


 

CBS News Poll. Jan. 30-Feb. 2, 2008. N=325 Republican primary voters nationwide. MoE ± 6.

.

"Who would you like to see the Republican Party nominate as its presidential candidate in 2008: [see below]?"

.

1/30 - 2/2/08 1/9-12/08 12/5-9/07    
% % %    
John McCain 46 33 7    
Mitt Romney 23 8 16    
Mike Huckabee 12 18 21    
Ron Paul 9 5 4    

Other (vol.)

2 2 2    

Unsure

8 15 17    
Rudy Giuliani n/a 10 22    
Fred Thompson n/a 8 7    
Duncan Hunter n/a 1 3    
Tom Tancredo n/a n/a 1    

 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Jan. 30-Feb. 1, 2008. N=1,249 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. Fieldwork by TNS.

.

"If the Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?" Names rotated. Includes leaners. For 9/07 and earlier, includes second choices of Gingrich supporters.

.

Among likely Republican primary voters:

.

1/30 - 2/1/08        
%        
John McCain

48

       
Mitt Romney

24

       
Mike Huckabee

16

       
Ron Paul

7

       
Rudy Giuliani (vol.)

1

       
Fred Thompson (vol.)

1

       
None (vol.)

1

       
Unsure

2

       

.

1/9-12/08 12/6-9/07      
% %      
John McCain

28

12

     
Mike Huckabee

20

19

     
Mitt Romney

19

17

     
Rudy Giuliani

15

25

     
Fred Thompson

8

14

     
Ron Paul

3

3

     
Duncan Hunter

2

2

     
Other (vol.)

1

-

     
None (vol.)

2

3

     
Unsure

2

4

     
Tom Tancredo

n/a

0

     

.

Among Republicans and leaners:

.

10/29 -
11/1/07
9/27-30/07      
% %      
Rudy Giuliani

33

34

     
John McCain

19

12

     
Fred Thompson

16

17

     
Mitt Romney

11

11

     
Mike Huckabee

9

8

     
Ron Paul

3

3

     
Duncan Hunter

2

2

     
Tom Tancredo

1

1

     
None (vol.)

4

4

     
Wouldn't vote (vol.)

-

1

     
Unsure

3

8

     
Sam Brownback

n/a

1

     

.

9/4-7/07 7/18-21/07 5/29 - 6/1/07 4/12-15/07 2/22-25/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

28

37

34

35

53

Fred Thompson

19

15

13

10

n/a

John McCain

18

16

20

22

23

Mitt Romney

10

8

10

10

5

Mike Huckabee

5

2

2

1

2

Sam Brownback

2

1

1

1

2

Duncan Hunter

1

2

1

1

-

Ron Paul

1

2

2

1

1

Tom Tancredo

-

2

1

1

1

Other (vol.)

1

-

-

0

-

None (vol.)

2

5

3

4

2

Wouldn't vote (vol.)

2

1

-

-

1

Unsure

10

5

10

7

5

Tommy Thompson

n/a

3

1

2

2

Jim Gilmore

n/a

n/a

1

2

-

George Pataki

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

1

Chuck Hagel

n/a

n/a

n/a

-

1


 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Jan. 30-31, 2008. N=297 Republican voters nationwide. MoE ± 6.

.

"If John McCain and Mitt Romney were the only choices in the Republican primary, how would you vote?" Names rotated

.

McCain Romney Unsure Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)
 
% % % %  

1/30-31/08

62

29

6

3

 

12/5-6/06

59

14

5

23

 

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Jan. 20-22, 2008. Asked of Republicans, and non-Republicans who said they would vote in a Republican presidential primary (from a total sample of 1,008 adults nationwide). MoE ± 5.1.

.

"Let me mention some people who might seek the Republican nomination for president in 2008. If the next Republican primary for president were being held today, for which one of the following candidates would you vote . . . ?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean?"

.

1/20-22/08 12/14-17/07 11/1-5/07 9/28-30/07 9/7-10/07
% % % % %
John McCain

28

14

16

15

14

Mike Huckabee

20

17

8

4

4

Mitt Romney

17

20

11

10

11

Rudy Giuliani

13

20

33

30

32

Fred Thompson

9

11

15

23

26

Ron Paul

4

4

4

2

2

Other (vol.)

1

1

1

1

n/a

None (vol.)

-

1

1

2

2

Unsure

8

9

7

10

6

Duncan Hunter

n/a

2

2

1

1

Tom Tancredo

n/a

1

2

1

1

Sam Brownback

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

1

.

7/27-30/07 6/8-11/07 4/20-23/07 3/2-5/07 12/8-11/06
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

33

29

33

38

34

Fred Thompson

20

20

17

n/a

n/a

John McCain

17

14

22

24

29

Mitt Romney

11

14

12

8

8

Ron Paul

2

2

n/a

n/a

n/a

Tommy Thompson

2

2

n/a

n/a

n/a

Sam Brownback

2

1

1

2

2

Tom Tancredo

1

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

Mike Huckabee

1

3

2

2

2

Duncan Hunter

1

1

1

1

n/a

Other (vol.)

1

1

1

1

2

None (vol.)

2

1

2

3

3

Unsure

7

10

9

9

8

Jim Gilmore

n/a

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

Newt Gingrich

n/a

n/a

n/a

10

10

Tommy Thompson

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

1

George Pataki

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

.

Without Thompson (recalculated, based on second choice of Thompson voters):

.

1/20-22/08

.

%

.

John McCain

29

.

Mike Huckabee

23

.

Mitt Romney

20

.

Rudy Giuliani

15

.

Ron Paul

4

.

Other (vol.)

1

.

None (vol.)

-

.

Unsure

8

.


 

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. Jan. 18-22, 2008. N=337 likely Republican primary voters nationwide. MoE ± 5.

.

"If the Republican caucus or primary for president were being held in your state today and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote: [see below]?" Names rotated. Results include leaners.

.

1/18-22/08 11/30 -
12/3/07
10/19-22/07 6/7-10/07 4/5-9/07
% % % % %
John McCain

22

11

13

12

12

Mike Huckabee

18

17

7

3

3

Mitt Romney

17

9

11

10

8

Rudy Giuliani

12

23

32

27

29

Fred Thompson

10

14

15

21

15

Ron Paul

6

5

2

n/a

n/a

Duncan Hunter

1

3

2

1

2

Other (vol.)

1

1

-

1

3

Unsure

13

17

16

14

14

Tom Tancredo

n/a

-

2

-

2

Newt Gingrich

n/a

n/a

n/a

9

7

Tommy Thompson

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

3

Sam Brownback

n/a

n/a

n/a

-

2


 

ABC News/Facebook poll. Dec. 16-19, 2007. N=1,142 adults nationwide. Fieldwork by TNS. Results below are among leaned Republicans.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?"

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani

30

       
Mike Huckabee

14

       
John McCain

14

       
Mitt Romney

14

       
Fred Thompson

10

       
Ron Paul

6

       
Duncan Hunter

1

       
Tom Tancredo

1

       
Other/None (vol.)

3

       
Unsure

7

       

 

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Dec. 14-16, 2007. N=399 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE ± 5.

.

"Suppose the choice for the Republican presidential nomination narrows down to [see below]. Which one would you prefer the Republican Party nominate for president: [see below]?" Names rotated

       
Giuliani Huckabee Unsure    
% % %    

12/14-16/07

56

38

6

   

.

Giuliani Romney Unsure    
% % %    

12/14-16/07

57

37

6

   

10/4-7/07

66

24

10

   

9/7-8/07

68

23

9

   

 

George Washington University Battleground Poll conducted by the Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). Dec. 9-12, 2007. N=1,013 likely voters nationwide. Results below are among Republican primary voters.

.

"If the Republican primary election for president was held today and you had to make a choice from this list of candidates, for whom would you vote: [see below]?" If unsure: "And which candidate do you lean toward slightly?"

.

%        
Mike Huckabee 23        
Rudy Giuliani 21        
Mitt Romney 16        
John McCain 15        
Fred Thompson 10        
Ron Paul 5        
Duncan Hunter 1        

Tom Tancredo

1        

Unsure

7        

 

Associated Press/Pew Research Center poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas. Nov. 20-26, 2007. N=448 likely Republican primary voters nationwide. MoE ± 5.5.

.

"Which one of the following Republican candidates would be your first choice for president: [see below]?" If unsure: "Just as of today, would you say you LEAN toward [see below]?" Names rotated

.

%        
Rudy Giuliani 26        
John McCain 17        
Mitt Romney 13        
Fred Thompson 13        
Mike Huckabee 11        
Ron Paul 4        
Duncan Hunter 1        
Tom Tancredo 0        

Other (vol.)

1        

None (vol.)

3        

Refused

11        

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2007. N=430 registered Republicans and leaners nationwide. MoE ± 6.

.

"Now I’m going to name eight Republican presidential candidates. After I read all the names, tell me which ONE you would most like to see nominated as the Republican Party’s presidential candidate in 2008. The choices are [see below]?" Names rotated

.

10/31 - 11/1/07 8/1-2/07 6/20-21/07    
% % %    
Rudy Giuliani

30

30

27

   
Fred Thompson

15

22

19

   
John McCain

14

13

15

   
Mitt Romney

12

10

12

   
Mike Huckabee

7

2

4

   
Ron Paul

3

2

2

   
Duncan Hunter

2

1

-

   
Tom Tancredo

-

1

1

   
Other

-

2

1

   
None/No preference

6

5

5

   
Unsure

11

10

8

   
Sam Brownback

n/a

1

2

   
Tommy Thompson

n/a

1

2

   
Michael Bloomberg

n/a

n/a

2

   
Jim Gilmore

n/a

n/a

-

   

 

WNBC/Marist Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2007. N=306 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE ± 5.5..

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?"

.

10/29 -
11/1/07
       
%        
Rudy Giuliani

30

       
John McCain

17

       
Mitt Romney

13

       
Fred Thompson

12

       
Mike Huckabee

5

       
Ron Paul

2

       
Duncan Hunter

1

       
Tom Tancredo

-

       
Unsure

20

       

.

4/26 - 5/1/07 2/12-15/07 2/13-15/06 10/12-13 &
17/05
4/18-21/05
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

28

28

28

31

27

John McCain

18

21

24

24

20

Fred Thompson

13

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Newt Gingrich

8

11

8

5

8

Mitt Romney

7

10

5

1

1

Tommy Thompson

3

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

Mike Huckabee

2

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

Sam Brownback

2

1

-

1

-

Duncan Hunter

2

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

Tom Tancredo

1

1

1

1

n/a

Chuck Hagel

1

-

1

1

1

Ron Paul

-

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

John Cox

-

-

n/a

n/a

n/a

Unsure

15

22

22

25

24

George Pataki

n/a

2

3

2

2

Bill Frist

n/a

n/a

4

4

3

George Allen

n/a

n/a

4

5

-

Jeb Bush

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

10

Rick Santorum

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

3

Haley Barbour

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

Bill Owens

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

-


 

Quinnipiac University Poll. Oct. 23-29, 2007. N=678 registered Republicans nationwide. MoE ± 3.8.

.

"If the 2008 Republican primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?"

.

10/23-29/07 8/7-13/07 6/5-11/07 4/25 - 5/1/07 2/13-19/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

27

28

27

27

40

Fred Thompson

17

12

15

14

n/a

Mitt Romney

14

15

10

8

7

John McCain

13

11

15

19

18

Mike Huckabee

6

2

2

2

2

Ron Paul

2

2

1

-

1

Duncan Hunter

1

1

1

1

2

Tom Tancredo

1

1

1

-

1

Other (vol.)

1

3

2

2

1

Wouldn't vote (vol.)

1

2

1

1

-

Unsure

15

16

17

16

15

Newt Gingrich

n/a

7

5

8

10

Sam Brownback

n/a

1

1

1

1

Tommy Thompson

n/a

1

1

1

1

Jim Gilmore

n/a

-

-

-

-

George Pataki

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

1

Chuck Hagel

n/a

n/a

n/a

-

-


 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 17-23, 2007. N=648 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republicans. MoE ± 4.5.

.

"I'm going to read you the names of some Republican presidential candidates. Who would you most like to see nominated as the Republican Party's candidate for president in 2008: [see below]?" If unsure: "Is there anyone you are leaning toward as of today?" Names rotated

.

10/17-23/07 9/12-16/07 7/25-29/07 4/18-22/07 3/21-25/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

31

32

27

32

33

John McCain

18

15

16

23

23

Fred Thompson

17

21

18

10

n/a

Mitt Romney

9

9

10

8

8

Mike Huckabee

8

4

1

3

1

Ron Paul

3

1

2

n/a

n/a

Tom Tancredo

1

1

1

n/a

n/a

Other (vol.)

1

1

1

1

2

None (vol.)

4

2

3

3

5

Unsure

8

6

11

8

12

Newt Gingrich

n/a

6

8

9

7

Sam Brownback

n/a

2

1

-

2

Tommy Thompson

n/a

n/a

1

2

3

Duncan Hunter

n/a

n/a

n/a

1

1

Jim Gilmore

n/a

n/a

n/a

-

3


 

CBS News Poll. Oct. 12-16, 2007. N=372 Republican primary voters nationwide.

.

"Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice among [see below]. Who would you most like to see nominated: [see below], or would you rather see someone else nominated?" Names rotated

.

10/12-16/07 9/4-9/07 8/8-12/07 7/9-17/07 6/26-28/07
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

29

27

38

33

34

Fred Thompson

21

22

18

25

22

John McCain

18

18

12

15

21

Mitt Romney

12

14

13

8

6

Mike Huckabee

4

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Other/None

9

9

1

11

7

Unsure

7

10

18

8

10


 

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs. Oct. 1-3, 2007. N=358 Republicans and leaners nationwide. MoE ± 5.1.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?"

.

Without Gingrich (recalculated, based on second choice of Gingrich voters):

.

10/1-3/07 9/21-25/07 9/10-12/07    
% % %    
Rudy Giuliani

27

23

26

   
Fred Thompson

23

18

21

   
John McCain

13

17

16

   
Mitt Romney

11

11

7

   
Mike Huckabee

7

7

5

   
Sam Brownback

1

2

2

   
Other (vol.)

-

1

-

   
None (vol.)

9

7

9

   
Unsure

9

14

14

   

 

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Sept. 27-30, 2007. N=398 Republicans and leaners nationwide. MoE ± 5. Fieldwork by TNS.

.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?" Names rotated. Includes leaners.

.

9/27-30/07 9/4-7/07 7/18-21/07    
% % %    
Rudy Giuliani

30

26

34

   
Fred Thompson

15

18

14

   
John McCain

12

18

16

   
Newt Gingrich

9

5

7

   
Mitt Romney

9

9

8

   
Mike Huckabee

7

5

2

   
Ron Paul

3

1

2

   
Duncan Hunter

2

1

2

   
Sam Brownback

1

2

1

   
Tom Tancredo

-

-

1

   
Other (vol.)

-

1

-

   
None of these (vol.)

4

2

5

   
Wouldn't vote (vol.)

1

2

1

   
Unsure

7

9

5

   
Tommy Thompson

n/a

n/a

3

   

.

5/29 - 6/1/07 4/12-15/07 2/22-25/07 1/16-19/07 12/7-11/06
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani

32

33

44

34

34

John McCain

19

21

21

27

26

Fred Thompson

11

9

n/a

n/a

n/a

Newt Gingrich

9

6

15

9

12

Mitt Romney

9

9

4

9

5

Mike Huckabee

2

1

2

1

-

Sam Brownback

1

1

1

1

1

Jim Gilmore

1

1

-

1

n/a

Duncan Hunter

1

1

-

-

1

Ron Paul

1

1

1

1

n/a

Tom Tancredo

1

1

-

1

-

Tommy Thompson

1

2

2

1

2

None of these (vol.)

3

4

2

2

6

Wouldn't vote (vol.)

-

-

1

1

-

Unsure

8

6

4

9

9

George Pataki

n/a

1

1

2

3

Chuck Hagel

n/a

-

1

-

-


Earlier polling on the Republican nomination


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