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Election 1998: Congress
All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older.


 

U.S. House: Generic Ballot Test (summary table)
Would Vote For
Democratic
Candidate
Would Vote For
Republican
Candidate
Dem.
minus
Rep.
% %
CBS News ^^^ 10/31 - 11/1 49 48 +1
ABC News ^^ (44% VAP turnout) 10/29 - 11/1 49 46 +3
ABC News ^^ (36% VAP turnout) 10/29 - 11/1 46 48 -2
Gallup/CNN/USA Today ALLOCATED FINAL ESTIMATE 10/29 - 11/1 52 48 +4
Gallup/CNN/USA Today ^^ 10/29 - 11/1 49 45 +4
Pew Research Center ^^ 10/28-31 46 44 +2
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics ^^ 10/28-29 38 48 -10
CBS News/New York Times ^^ 10/26-28 47 50 -3
NBC News/Wall Street Journal * 10/24-27 43 40 +3
Associated Press ^ 10/21-25 44 39 +5
Wirthlin Worldwide (R) ^^^ 10/16-21 41 45 -4
Hill Research Consultants (R) ^^ 10/13-18 41 38 +3
CNN/Time ^^ 10/14-15 47 47 0
Zogby International ^^ 10/11-14 39 36 +3
American Viewpoint (R) ^^ 10/9-13 42 40 +2
The Washington Post ^^ 10/8-10 49 45 +4
Newsweek ^^ 10/8-9 41 49 -8
EMILY's List (D) ^^ 10/1-4 46 42 +4
ABC News/Washington Post ^^ 9/25-28 46 49 -3
Fabrizio, McLaughlin (R) ^^ 9/21-27 39 43 -4
Tarrance (R)/Lake (D) ^^ 8/24-26 40 43 -3
Los Angeles Times * 8/18-19 46 43 +3
Market Strategies (R) * 7/28 - 8/1 37 36 +1
John McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) ^^ 7/22-26 29 29 0

* Among registered voters
^ Among all adults
^^ Among likely voters
^^^ Among extremely likely voters
VAP = voting-age population


 


U.S. House: Generic Ballot Test (full trend)

ABC News and The Washington Post

.

"Thinking about the U.S. House of Representatives election in November, 1998, in the congressional district where you live, if that election were being held today, for whom would you vote: the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?"
Democratic
Candidate
Republican
Candidate
Other/No
Opinion
% % % N
10/29 - 11/1/98 * 49 46 4 LV 44% VAP turnout
10/29 - 11/1/98 * 46 48 5 LV 36% VAP turnout
10/22-25/98 * 49 47 3 581LV
10/15-18/98 * 48 47 5 548LV
10/8-10/98 ** 49 45 6 LV
9/25-28/98 *** 46 49 5 715LV
9/11-13/98 ** 49 43 8 RV
8/19-21/98 *** 48 45 7 RV
7/9-12/98 *** 47 45 8 RV
1/28-31/98 ** 49 39 12 RV
1/15-19/98 *** 47 44 9 RV
* Conducted by ABC News
** Conducted by The Washington Post
*** Conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post
RV = registered voters
LV = likely voters
VAP = voting-age population

 

American Viewpoint (R)
.
"...If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?"
Democratic
Candidate
Republican
Candidate
Other/
Undecided
% % % N
10/9-13/98 42 40 18 800LV
10/1-4/98 39 41 20 1,000LV
9/2-9/98 38 40 22 1,000LV
7/15-19/98 37 36 27 1,000RV
6/1-7/98 37 34 29 1,000RV
4/22-27/98 42 43 15 1,000RV
2/98 37 36 27
1/15-19/98 41 45 14 1,000RV
RV = registered voters
LV = likely voters

 

Associated Press Poll taken by ICR

.

Would Vote
Democratic
Would Vote
Republican
Other
(vol.)/
Wouldn't
Vote (vol.)/
Undecided
% % % N
"If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote Republican or Democratic?"
10/21-25/98 44 39 17 LV

.

"If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, would you vote Republican or Democratic?"
7/31 - 8/4/98 42 36 22 1,017
LV = likely voters

 

CBS News Poll and, where noted, CBS News/New York Times Poll

.

"If the 1998 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If undecided: "Well, as of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or more toward the Democratic candidate?"

Democratic
Candidate

Republican
Candidate

Other/
Undecided

%

%

%

N

10/31 - 11/1/98 49 48 3 VLV
10/26-28/98 * 47 50 3 485LV
10/12-13/98 * 48 46 6 LV
10/12-13/98 * 49 41 10 794RV
10/3-4/98 47 44 9 735RV
9/22-23/98 * 44 54 2 VLV
9/22-23/98 * 47 48 5 LV
9/8-10/98 46 47 7 482LV

.

* Conducted with The New York Times RV = registered voters
LV = likely voters
VLV = very likely voters

 

CNN/Time Poll conducted by Yankelovich Partners
.
"If the election for Congress were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in your district or for the Republican candidate?"

Democratic
Candidate

Republican
Candidate

Other/
Undecided

%

%

%

Among Likely Voters
10/14-15/98 47 47 6 442LV
9/23-24/98 45 49 6 373LV

.

Among Registered Voters
10/14-15/98 51 40 9 856RV
9/23-24/98 48 41 11 842RV
7/30/98 44 39 17 687RV
6/30 - 7/1/98 47 42 11 808RV
5/18-19/98 44 45 11 1,055RV

.

Among All Adults
10/14-15/98 49 37 14 1,036
9/23-24/98 47 38 15 1,019
7/30/98 44 38 18 811
6/30 - 7/1/98 45 40 15 1,024
5/18-19/98 45 43 12 1,234
4/8-9/98 49 36 15 1,011
1/14-15/98 46 37 17 1,020
9/10-11/97 48 39 13

.

RV = registered voters
LV = likely voters

 

EMILY's List poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Research (D) and Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D)
.
"Looking ahead to the 1998 elections for a moment, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?"
Democratic
Candidate
Republican
Candidate
Other/
Undecided
% % % N
10/1-4/98 46 42 12 1,100LV
5/31 - 6/4/98 44 44 12 1,100LV
10/12-16/97 44 43 13 1,325LV
LV = likely voters

 

Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (R)

.

"If the 1998 election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, for whom would you vote: the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?"
Democratic
Candidate
Republican
Candidate
Won't
Vote (vol.)
Undecided Refused
% % % % % N
9/21-27/98 41 38 1 19 1 1,000RV
9/21-27/98 39 43 1 16 1 LV
RV = registered voters
LV = likely voters

 

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll
.
"If the 1998 congressional elections were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate in your district or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If "Undecided": "Well, if you had to vote, which way would you lean?"
Democratic
Candidate
Republican
Candidate

Undecided
% % % N
10/28-29/98 38 48 14 673LV
10/7-8/98 38 47 15 LV
10/7-8/98 37 45 18 900RV
9/9-10/98 38 38 24 900RV
7/29-30/98 37 40 23 899RV
7/15-16/98 35 41 24 900RV
6/30 - 7/1/98 39 36 25 900RV
6/3-4/98 37 38 25 907RV
5/6-7/98 38 37 25 900RV
4/7-8/98 38 37 25 902RV
3/10-11/98 37 38 25 901RV
2/11-12/98 36 38 26 903RV
LV = likely voters
RV = registered voters

 

Gallup/CNN/USA Today Poll
.
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which parties candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If "Undecided": "As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party's candidate or to the Republican Party's candidate?"

Democratic
Candidate

Republican
Candidate

Other/
Undecided

%

%

%

N

Allocated Final Estimate
10/29 - 11/1/98 52 48

.

Among Likely Voters
10/29 - 11/1/98 49 45 6 1,105LV
10/23-25/98 47 49 4 519LV
10/9-12/98 47 46 6 461LV
9/23-24/98 51 45 4 539LV
9/14-15/98 48 47 5 401LV
9/11-12/98 47 46 7 449LV
8/21-23/98 44 48 8 514LV
7/7-8/98 46 46 8 404LV
4/17-19/98 44 50 6 394LV

.

Among ALL Registered Voters
10/29 - 11/1/98 50 41 9 1,766RV
10/23-25/98 47 44 9 865RV
10/9-12/98 46 45 9 834RV
9/23-24/98 50 41 9 899RV
9/14-15/98 47 43 10 852RV
9/11-12/98 52 39 9 786RV
8/21-23/98 47 43 10 1,108RV
7/7-8/98 46 42 12 855RV
5/8-10/98 48 43 9 867RV
4/17-19/98 46 45 9 855RV
1/16-18/98 51 40 9 864RV
11/6-9/97 49 42 9 842RV
10/27-29/97 46 46 8 878RV
8/22-25/97 51 41 8 863RV
7/25-27/97 48 43 9 856RV

.

RV = registered voters
LV = likely voters

 

Hill Research Consultants (R)

.

"If the November election for U.S. Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?"

Democratic
Candidate

Republican
Candidate

Other/
Undecided

%

%

%

N

10/13-18/98 41 38 21 600
LV = likely voters

 

John McLaughlin & Associates (R)

.

"If the election for Congress were held today in your district for whom would you vote: the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate?"

Democratic
Candidate

Republican
Candidate

Other/
Undecided

% % % N
7/22-26/98 29 29 42 1,000LV
4/98 40 37 23
3/98 37 34 29
2/98 38 33 28
10/97 39 34 27

LV = likely voters

 

The Los Angeles Times Poll

.

"If the November 1998 election for Congress were being held today, which party would you like to see win in your congressional district: the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"
Democratic
Party
Republican
Party
Other
(vol.)
Neither
(vol.)
Don't
Know
% % % % % N
8/18-19/98 46 43 3 3 5 RV

RV=registered
voters

 

Market Strategies (R)

.

If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate from your district?"
Democratic
Candidate
Republican
Candidate
Other/
Undecided
% % % N
7/28 - 8/1/98 37 36 26 655RV
6/24-28/98 40 37 22 655RV
5/27-6/3/98 41 38 21 679RV
4/20-26/98 40 37 24 655RV
3/30-4/2/98 39 34 27 800
2/19-25/98 40 36 25 800

RV = registered voters

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R)
.
"In this year's election for U.S. House of Representatives, do you plan to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If "Not sure": "Well, which way do you lean at this time?"
Democratic
Candidate
Republican
Candidate
Depends
(vol.)
Not
Sure
% % % % N
10/24-27/98 43 40 8 9 1,025RV
9/10-13/98 37 35 14 14 1,704RV
7/25-27/98 34 32 15 19 503
6/18-21/98 36 32 16 16 1,000
4/18-20/98 36 30 18 16 500
1/98 36 30 22 12 1,005
9/97 36 29 18 17 2,004
RV = registered voters

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates
.
"If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If choice: "As of today, do you lean more to the Republican or the Democrat?"
Democratic
Candidate
Republican
Candidate
Other/
Undecided
% % % N
10/8-9/98 41 49 10 251LV
10/8-9/98 45 43 12 650RV
9/24-25/98 48 43 9 RV
9/10-11/98 45 43 12 RV
8/20-21/98 47 41 12 642RV

.

LV = likely voters
RV = registered voters

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates
.
"If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If no choice: "As of today, do you lean more to the Republican or the Democrat?"
Democratic
Candidate
Republican
Candidate
Other/
Undecided
% % % N
10/28-31/98 46 44 10 743LV
10/14-18/98 43 48 9 LV
10/14-18/98 44 43 13 1,532RV
8/27 - 9/8/98 46 45 9 1,754RV
8/21-24/98 45 44 11 781RV
7/29 - 8/2/98 49 42 9 852RV
6/4-8/98 46 44 10 771RV
3/25-29/98 52 40 8 908RV
2/19-22/98 50 41 9 567RV
1/14-18/98 51 41 8 922RV
8/7-10/97 48 45 7
RV = registered voters
LV = likely voters

 

Tarrance Group (R)/Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D) "Battleground" Survey

.

"If the election for Congress were being held today and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate in your district?" If "Undecided": "And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?"
Democratic
Candidate
Republican
Candidate
Other/
Undecided
% % % N
8/24-26/98 40 43 17 1,000LV
12/7-9/97 39 40 21 1,000RV
LV = likely voters
RV = registered voters

 

Wirthlin Worldwide (R)

.

"If the election for Congress were being held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?"
Democratic
Candidate
Republican
Candidate
Other/
Undecided
% % % N
10/16-21/98 41 45 14 416ELV
10/2-5/98 42 44 14 832RV
9/25-28/98 42 43 15 844RV
9/11-14/98 40 44 16 824RV
ELV = extremely likely voters
RV = registered voters

 

Zogby International "America Poll"

.

"Which party's congressional candidate do you intend to vote for in your congressional district this November: Democrat, Republican, or independent?"
Democrat Republican Independent Undecided
% % % % N
10/11-14/98 39 36 8 17 864LV
LV = likely voters
 

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