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     Election 2004




WHITE HOUSE
        
          Exit poll
   

          The reelection of the President

   
          Election match-ups
                                  
                          Final polls, plus projections
    
 
                        Full details
                  
                          Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader (etc.) bar chart
                  
               Bush vs. Kerry 2-way summary table

                  
                          Tracking poll trendlines

 
          Candidate Ratings

                                  
                       Bush · Kerry · Cheney · Edwards
      
          Misc. campaign questions
       
          Democratic nomination polls

CONGRESS

 

   

      BUSH KERRY NADER OTHER   Margin  
      % % % %   Bush  
                   
 

ELECTION RESULTS
Based on certified results, compiled by the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate 

50.75 48.30 0.36 0.59   2.45  
 
                   
  Pollster Vote Projections
     DETAILS  Survey BUSH KERRY NADER OTHER   Margin
    Dates % % % %   Bush Kerry
                   
  Zogby 11/1-2 49.4 49.1       0.3  
  Battleground: Tarrance (R) * 10/31 - 11/1 51.2 47.8 0.5 0.5   3.4  
  Battleground: Lake (D) ** 10/31 - 11/1 48.6 50.7         2.1
  TIPP 10/30 - 11/1 50.1 48.0 1.1 0.8   2.1  
  Harris 10/29 - 11/1 49 48 2 1   1  
  Democracy Corps (D) 10/29-31 48.7 49.5 0.6 1.0     0.8
  Gallup 10/29-31 49 49 1 1      
  Pew Research Center 10/27-30 51 48 1     3  
 
                 
 

Final Trial Heats ***

        OTHER/    
     DETAILS Survey BUSH KERRY NADER UNSURE   Margin
    Dates % % % %   Bush Kerry
                   
  Marist College 11/1 49 50 - 1     1
  GWU Battleground 10/31 - 11/1 50 46 1 4   4  
  TIPP 10/30 - 11/1 48.6 45.3 0.9 5.2   3.3  
  CBS News 10/29 - 11/1 49 47 1 3   2  
  FOX News 10/30-31 46 48 1 5     2
  CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/29-31 49 47 - 4   2  
  Democracy Corps (D) 10/29-31 47 48 1 3     1
  NBC News/Wall St Journal 10/29-31 48 47 1 4   1  
  Zogby **** 10/29-31 48 47 1 4   1  
  ABC News 10/28-31 49 48 1 3   1  
  Washington Post 10/28-31 49 48 1 3   1  
  American Research Group 10/28-30 48 48 1 3      
  Pew Research Center 10/27-30 48 45 1 6   3  
  Newsweek 10/27-29 50 44 1 5   6  
 
 

PollingReport.com

  _________________
* Tarrance projection based on unaided trial heat question.
** Lake Snell Perry projection based on aided trial heat question.

*** Final Trial Heats: Based on surveys of likely voters, with leaners included.
**** Zogby: Last set of unallocated results
released, although polling continued through election day.

 

Four More Years
   
The Harris Poll. Nov. 9-14, 2004. N=1,014 adults nationwide. MoE 3 (for all adults).

.

"Overall do you think that the election process for the presidential election was or was not conducted fairly?"

.

Was Was Not Unsure
% % %

ALL

81 16 4

  Republicans

95 4 1

  Democrats

68 27 4

  Independents

83 15 2

.

"Do you think that there are many, some, only a few or no attempts to intimidate or prevent legitimate voters from voting?"

.

Many Some A Few None Unsure
% % % % %

ALL

8 23 26 39 4

  Republicans

2 15 31 50 2

  Democrats

12 26 24 35 3

  Independents

10 27 25 35 4

 

Pew Research Center survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Nov. 5-8, 2004. N=1,209 adults nationwide who said they voted in the 2004 general election. MoE 3.5 (for the total sample). Respondents were also interviewed in Oct. 2004.

.

"What one issue mattered most to you in deciding how you voted for president?" Open-ended. Multiple responses accepted. Asked of Bush and Kerry voters. Form 1 (N=569).

.

%

Iraq/The war

27

Economy/Jobs

14

Moral values

9

Terrorism/Security

9

Honesty/Integrity

5

Other Bush

5

Other Kerry

4

Health care

3

Abortion

3

Direction of the country

2

Candidate's religiosity, morals

2

Strength/Leadership

2

Foreign policy

2

Gay marriage/Marriage

2

Don't change course

2

Other

15

Unsure/Nothing/Everything

5

.

"Which ONE issue mattered most to you in deciding how you voted for president . . . ?" Respondents read list of options below. Options rotated. Asked of Bush and Kerry voters. Form 2 (N=567).

.

ALL BUSH
Voters
KERRY
Voters
% % %

Moral values

27 44 7

Iraq

22 11 34

Economy/Jobs

21 7 36

Terrorism

14 24 3

Health care

4 1 8

Education

4 2 6

Taxes

3 4 2

Other (vol.)

4 5 3

Unsure

1 2 1

.

"Now that the campaign is over, how satisfied were you with the choice of presidential candidates? Would you say that you were very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied, or not at all satisfied?"

.

Very Fairly Not Very Not At All Unsure
% % % % %

11/5-8/04

33 33 16 16 2

11/00

24 44 18 9 5

11/96

18 33 24 22 3

11/92

24 37 21 16 2

11/88

26 36 20 17 1

.

"Compared to past presidential elections, would you say there was more discussion of issues in this campaign or less discussion of issues?"

.

More Less Same (vol.) Unsure
% % % %

11/5-8/04

47 42 7 4

11/00

46 36 13 5

11/96

25 65 6 4

11/92

59 34 4 3

.

"Compared to past presidential elections, would you say there was MORE mud slinging or negative campaigning in this campaign or LESS mud slinging or negative campaigning in this campaign?"

.

More Less Same (vol.) Unsure
% % % %

11/5-8/04

72 14 12 2

11/00

34 46 16 4

11/96

49 36 12 3

11/92

68 16 14 2

.

"Would you say the press has been fair or unfair in the way it has covered [see below] election campaign?"

.

Fair Unfair Unsure
% % %
John Kerry's 65 31 4
George W. Bush's 56 40 4

.

"Generally, are you happy or unhappy that the Republican Party maintained control of the U.S. Congress?"

.

Happy Unhappy Unsure
% % %

11/5-8/04

51 44 5

.

"Are you happy or unhappy that George W. Bush was reelected president?"

.

Happy Unhappy Unsure
% % %

11/5-8/04

53 43 4

.

"In the election, how confident are you that your vote was accurately counted . . . ?" Form 1 (N=601)

.

Very
Confident
Somewhat
Confident
Not Too
Confident
Not At All
Confident
Unsure
% % % % %

11/5-8/04

68 24 4 3 1

.

"In the election, how confident are you that the votes across the country were accurately counted . . . ?" Form 2 (N=608)

.

Very
Confident
Somewhat
Confident
Not Too
Confident
Not At All
Confident
Unsure
% % % % %

11/5-8/04

48 37 7 7 1

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Nov. 3, 2004. N=621 adults nationwide. MoE 4.

.

"Which of the following best describes your reaction to the outcome of the presidential election: very pleased, pleased, it doesn't matter to you one way or the other, upset, or very upset?" Options rotated

.

Very
Pleased
Pleased Doesn't
Matter
Upset Very
Upset
% % % % %

11/03/04

33 18 9 18 20

.

"Which comes closest to your view of the way George W. Bush won this election: he won fair and square, he won but only on a technicality, or he stole the election?" Options rotated

.

Won Fair
and Square
Won on a
Technicality
Stole the
Election
Unsure
% % % %

11/03/04

74 10 13 3

.

"Which of the following best describes your feelings as you look ahead to George W. Bush's second term as president: enthusiastic, optimistic, pessimistic, or afraid?" Options rotated

.

Enthu-
siastic
Optimistic Pessimistic Afraid Unsure
% % % % %

11/03/04

23 33 18 24 2

.

"In the next four years, do you think George W. Bush will do more to unite the country or more to divide the country?" Options rotated

.

Unite Divide Unsure
% % %

11/03/04

57 39 4

.

"Which comes closer to your view? Because the election was so close, George W. Bush should emphasize programs that both parties support. OR, Because he won a majority of the votes, George W. Bush has a mandate to advance the Republican Party's agenda." Options rotated

.

Bipartisan
Agenda
GOP
Agenda
Unsure
% % %

11/03/04

63 30 7

.

"Overall, do you think the news media did a good job or a poor job of covering the election on Election Day?"

.

Good Poor Unsure
% % %

11/03/04

78 19 3

 

Exit Poll
   
Los Angeles Times national exit poll
. N=5,154 voters (including 3,357 California voters) interviewed -- using self-administered, confidential questionnaires -- as they exited 136 polling places across the nation on Nov. 2, 2004. Fieldwork by Schlesinger Associates and Davis Research.

.

"In the election for president, for whom did you just vote . . . ?"

.

Percentage
of All Voters
Voted for
BUSH
Voted for
KERRY
% % %

      ALL

100 51 48

      Men

49 53 46

      Women

51 49 50

      Married men

31 59 40

      Single men

16 40 58

      Married women

30 57 42

      Single women

19 35 64

      18-29 years old

20 43 55

      30-44 years old

32 52 47

      45-64 years old

36 54 45

      65 & older

12 55 45

      Whites

79 57 42

      Blacks

10 14 86

      Latinos

5 45 54

      Asians

3 34 64

      Liberals

32 19 79

      Moderates

29 45 54

      Conservatives

39 82 18

      Democrats

40 12 88

      Independents

19 48 49

      Republicans

39 94 6

      City

36 43 56

      Suburb

32 52 47

      Small town

20 58 41

      Rural

12 62 37

.

"Which issues, if any, were most important to you in deciding how you would vote for president today? . . ." Respondents could make up to two selections from the list below.

.

ALL
Voters
BUSH
Voters
KERRY
Voters
% % %

Moral/Ethical values

40 54 24

Jobs/Economy

33 18 48

Terrorism/Homeland security

29 45 13

Situation in Iraq

16 11 21

Education

15 12 18

Social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage

15 14 15

Taxes

9 11 7

Health care

9 5 14

Foreign affairs

5 3 8

Social Security

5 3 7

Medicare/Prescription drugs

3 2 4

None of the above

2 2 3


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