Election 2018

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Election 2018

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CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. Nov. 1-3, 2018. N=1,380 registered voters nationwide (margin of error ą 3.2), including 1,151 likely voters (ą 3.5). 4/17: CNN/ORC Poll.

"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: [see below]?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below]?"

		Republican candidate	Democratic candidate	Neither/ Other (vol.)	Don't plan to vote (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	Likely voters:
	11/1-3/18	42	55	1	-	1
	10/4-7/18	41	54	2	-	3
	9/6-9/18	42	52	2	-	4

	Registered voters:
	11/1-3/18	42	53	1	1	3
	10/4-7/18	42	51	3	1	4
	9/6-9/18	40	52	2	1	5
	8/9-12/18	41	52	3	1	4
	6/14-17/18	42	50	2	1	6
	5/2-5/18	44	47	4	-	4
	3/22-25/18	44	50	2	1	4
	2/20-23/18	38	54	3	1	4
	1/14-15, 17-18/18	44	49	2	1	3
	12/14-17/17	38	56	4	-	2
	11/2-5/17	40	51	4	1	5
	10/12-15/17	38	54	3	1	5
	9/17-20/17	43	49	2	2	3
	8/3-6/17	42	51	3	1	3

	4/22-25/17	41	49	7	1	1

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by Hart Research Associates (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R). Nov. 1-3, 2018. N=1,000 registered voters nationwide (margin of error ą 3.1), including 774 likely voters (ą 3.5).

"What is your preference for the outcome of the upcoming congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?" Options rotated 10/18 & earlier: "What is your preference for the outcome of this November's congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?"

		Republican control	Democratic control	Unsure
		%	%	%

	Likely voters:
	11/1-3/18	43	50	7
	10/14-17/18	41	50	9

	Registered voters:
	11/1-3/18	43	49	8
	10/14-17/18	41	48	11
	9/16-19/18	40	52	8
	8/18-22/18	42	50	8
	7/15-18/18	43	49	8
	6/1-4/18	40	50	10
	4/8-11/18	40	47	13
	3/10-14/18	40	50	10
	1/13-17/18	43	49	8
	12/13-15/17	39	50	11
	10/23-26/17	41	48	11
	9/14-18/17	42	48	10
	6/17-20/17	42	50	8
	4/17-20/17	43	47	10

Investor's Business Daily/TIPP Poll. Oct. 25-Nov. 3, 2018. N=798 likely voters nationwide.

"Which of the following is your preference for the outcome of the November 2018 congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?"

		Republican control	Democratic control	Other (vol.)	Unsure	Refused
		%	%	%	%	%

	Likely voters:
	10/25 - 11/3/18	41	50	3	5	1

	Registered voters:
	9/27 - 10/3/18	43	45	4	7	1
	8/23-30/18	39	50	6	5	1
	7/26 - 8/2/18	45	45	4	5	1
	6/21-29/18	40	48	6	6	1
	5/29 - 6/5/18	40	47	8	5	0
	1/25 - 2/2/18	41	46	5	7	1

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2018. N=1,041 registered voters nationwide, margin of error ą 3.5; including 737 likely voters, ą 4 (per Washington Post).

"If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district?" If unsure: "Would you lean toward the Democratic candidate or toward the Republican candidate?" Options rotated IF ALREADY VOTED: "Did you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district?" Options rotated

		Republican candidate	Democratic candidate	Neither/ Other (vol.)	Would not vote (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%

	Registered voters:
	10/29 - 11/1/18	43	50	4	1	3
	10/8-11/18	42	53	2	0	3
	8/26-29/18	38	52	4	0	6
	4/8-11/18	43	47	4	-	5
	1/15-18/18	39	51	3	1	6
	10/29 - 11/1/17	40	51	4	1	4

	Likely voters:
	10/29 - 11/1/18*	44	51	3	-	2
	10/29 - 11/1/18**	44	52
	4/8-11/18	44	49
	1/15-18/18	40	54	2	0	4
	10/29 - 11/1/17	46	48	4	-	3

	* Likely voters as identified by The Washington Post. ** Likely voters as identified by ABC News.

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll. Oct. 28-29, 2018. N=822 registered voters nationwide (margin of error ą 4.4), including 509 likely voters (ą 5.7.). Trend includes polls co-sponsored by McClatchy.

"If November's election for Congress were held today, which party's candidate are you more likely to vote for in your district: [see below]?"

		Republican candidate	Democratic candidate	Neither (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%

	Likely voters:
	10/28-29/18	43	52	2	3

	Registered voters:
	10/28-29/18	44	50	3	4
	10/21-23/18	40	50	5	6
	10/1/18	42	48	4	5
	9/22-24/18	41	48	5	6
	9/5-9/18	38	50	7	6
	7/19-22/18	40	47	7	7
	4/10-13/18	39	44	8	9
	3/19-21/18	39	44	6	12
	2/20-21/18	39	46	6	10
	2/5-7/18	38	49	5	8
	1/8-10/18	40	46	6	9
	12/4-7/17	37	50	7	7
	11/13-15/17	40	43	6	10
	11/6-9/17	36	51	6	8
	8/8-12/17	40	47	5	8
	6/21-25/17	38	48	6	8
	4/11-12/17	38	45	7	10
	3/22-27/17	38	47	8	7

Gallup Poll. Oct. 15-28, 2018. N=902 registered voters nationwide (margin of error ą 4), including 675 likely voters (ą 5). LV = likely voters. Results are among registered voters, except where noted.

"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" Options rotated

		Republican candidate	Democratic candidate	Other (vol.)/ Unsure
		%	%	%

	10/15-28/18 LV	43	54	3
	9/17-23/18	42	51	6
	6/11-17/18	43	48	9

"Please tell me whether you think each of the following political office-holders deserves to be reelected, or not. "How about the U.S. representative in your congressional district?"

		Deserves to be reelected	Does not	Unsure
		%	%	%

	10/15-28/18	50	35	14
	4/9-15/18	51	38	11

"How about most members of Congress?"

		Deserve to be reelected	Do not	Unsure
		%	%	%

	10/15-28/18	29	63	9
	4/9-15/18	26	68	7

Suffolk University/USA Today Poll. Oct. 18-22, 2018. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. Margin of error ą 3.

"If November's election for Congress were held today, which party's candidate are you more likely to vote for in your congressional district: Democrat or Republican?" Options rotated

		Republican	Democrat	Neither (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%

	10/18-22/18	43	51	2	4

	Registered voters:
	8/23-28/18	39	50	3	10
	6/13-18/18	39	45	4	12
	2/20-24/18	32	47	6	14

CBS News Poll. Oct. 14-17, 2018. N=975 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ą 4.

"Thinking about the 2018 congressional elections, which outcome would you prefer: the Republican Party keep control of Congress, or the Democratic Party win control of Congress?"

		Republican Party	Democratic Party	Doesn't matter (vol.)	Unsure/ No answer
		%	%	%	%

	10/14-17/18	42	51	3	4
	5/3-6/18	41	50	5	3

Fox News Poll conducted by Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). Oct. 13-16, 2018. N=1,007 registered voters nationwide (margin of error ą 3), including 841 likely voters (ą 3).

"If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate in your district or the Republican candidate in your district?" If unsure: "Well, if you had to vote, which way would you lean?" Options rotated

		Republican candidate	Democratic candidate	Other (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%

	Likely voters:
	10/13-16/18	42	49	3	6
	9/16-19/18	42	49	1	8

	Registered voters:
	10/13-16/18	40	47	3	9
	9/16-19/18	40	46	3	11
	8/19-21/18	38	49	3	9
	7/9-11/18	40	48	4	7
	6/3-6/18	39	48	3	11
	3/18-21/18	41	46	3	10
	10/22-24/17	35	50	4	11
	6/25-27/17	41	47	4	8
	4/23-25/17	42	47	2	8

CNBC All-America Economic Survey conducted by Hart Research Associates (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R). Oct. 4-7, 2018. N=800 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ą 3.5.

"If this year's election for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?"

		Republican candidate	Democratic candidate	Another candidate (vol.)	Don't plan to vote (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%

	10/4-7/18	36	42	4	1	17

Quinnipiac University Poll. Sept. 27-30, 2018. N=1,111 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ą 3.7.

"If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic candidate or more toward the Republican candidate?"

		Republican candidate	Democratic candidate	Someone else (vol.)	Unsure/ No answer
		%	%	%	%

	9/27-30/18	42	49	-	8
	9/6-9/18	38	52	-	9
	8/9-13/18	42	51	1	7
	7/18-23/18	39	51	-	10
	6/27 - 7/1/18	41	50	1	8

"If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?"

		Republican Party	Democratic Party	Unsure/ No answer
		%	%	%

	9/27-30/18	43	50	8
	6/14-17/18	44	49	7
	5/31 - 6/5/18	41	48	11
	4/20-24/18	42	48	10
	4/6-9/18	43	46	10
	3/16-20/18	43	49	8
	3/3-5/18	39	49	12
	2/16-19/18	39	54	7
	2/2-5/18	42	49	9
	1/19-23/18	39	53	8
	1/12-16/18	40	52	8
	1/5-9/18	36	53	11
	12/13-18/17	37	53	10
	12/6-11/17	39	51	10
	11/29 - 12/4/17	37	51	12
	11/7-13/17	39	52	8
	10/5-10/17	43	49	8
	9/21-26/17	40	49	12
	8/17-22/17	40	51	9
	8/9-15/17	41	51	8
	7/27 - 8/1/17	39	53	8
	6/22-27/17	41	51	8
	5/31 - 6/6/17	39	52	8

Pew Research Center. Sept. 18-24, 2018. N=1,439 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ą 3.

"If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If other, unsure or refused: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate?" Options rotated

		Republican candidate	Democratic candidate	Other (vol.)/ Unsure/ Refused
		%	%	%

	9/18-24/18	42	52	6
	6/5-12/18	43	48	8
	4/25 - 5/1/18	43	48	9
	1/10-15/18	39	53	8
	6/27 - 7/9/17	40	53	7

Grinnell College National Poll conducted by Selzer & Company. Aug. 29-Sept. 2, 2018. N=779 likely voters nationwide. Margin of error ą 3.5.

"If the elections for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?" If unsure: "Which way are you leaning -- toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?" Options rotated

		Republican candidate	Democratic candidate	Other (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%

	8/29 - 9/2/18	43	45	3	9

Monmouth University Poll. Aug. 15-19, 2018. N=725 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ą 3.6.

"If the election for U.S. Congress was held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate in your district?" Options rotated. Results include leaners.

		Republican candidate	Democratic candidate	Someone else (vol.)	Wouldn't vote (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%

	8/15-19/18	43	48	2	1	6
	6/12-13/18	41	48	3	2	6
	4/26-30/18	41	49	2	1	7
	3/2-5/18	41	50	3	2	6
	1/28-30/18	45	47	3	1	4
	12/10-12/17	36	51	2	3	8

Democracy Corps & Greenberg Research (D). July 19-26, 2018. N=1,003 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ą 3.1.

"Thinking about the election for Congress in your district in November, will you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?" Results include leaners.

		Republican candidate	Democratic candidate	Unsure	Will not vote (vol.)	Refused
		%	%	%	%	%

	7/19-26/18	39	48	10	1	1

Quinnipiac University Poll. June 14-17, 2018. N=905 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ą 3.9.

"If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?"

		Republican Party	Democratic Party	Unsure/ No answer
		%	%	%

	6/14-17/18	43	49	9
	5/31 - 6/5/18	40	47	13
	4/20-24/18	40	48	12
	4/6-9/18	43	46	11
	3/16-20/18	43	49	9
	3/3-5/18	38	48	15
	2/16-19/18	38	53	9
	2/2-5/18	40	49	11
	1/19-23/18	38	51	11
	1/12-16/18	39	50	10
	1/5-9/18	35	52	13
	12/13-18/17	37	52	12
	12/6-11/17	37	49	13
	11/29 - 12/4/17	36	50	13
	11/7-13/17	38	51	11
	10/5-10/17	41	49	10
	9/21-26/17	38	47	15
	8/17-22/17	38	50	11
	8/9-15/17	40	50	10
	7/27 - 8/1/17	38	52	10
	6/22-27/17	41	51	9
	5/31 - 6/6/17	39	51	10
	5/4-9/17	38	54	8

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by Hart Research Associates (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R). June 1-4, 2018. N=900 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ą 3.3.

"In the next election for U.S. Congress, do you feel that your representative deserves to be reelected, or do you think that it is time to give a new person a chance?" Half sample (form B)

		Deserves to be reelected	Time for a new person	Unsure
		%	%	%

	6/1-4/18	32	53	15

George Washington University Battleground Poll cconducted by the Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). March 4-8, 2018. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. Margin of error ą 3.1. RV = registered voters

"Thinking now about the elections for Congress that will be held in November 2018: If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate, in your district?" If unsure: "And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?" Options rotated

		Republican candidate	Democratic candidate	Unsure
		%	%	%

	3/4-8/18	40	49	12
	8/13-17/17 RV	40	46	14

Fox News Poll conducted by Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). Jan. 21-23, 2018. N=1,002 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ą 3.

"Who do you want to win this year's congressional elections: the Democrats or the Republicans?" Options rotated

		Republicans	Democrats	Neither (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%

	1/21-23/18	38	44	9	9

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