Election 2010

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Election 2010 See also: 2008 • 2006 • 2004 • 2002 • 2000 • 1998

[ STATE ELECTION POLLS are in our subscriber area. ]

Daily Kos poll conducted by Research 2000. N=1,200 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.8.
					.
"Would you like to see more Democrats or Republicans elected to Congress in 2010?"
					.
		Democrats	Republicans	Unsure
		%	%	%
	3/15-18/10	47	44	9
	3/8-11/10	46	43	11
	3/1-4/10	45	42	13
					.
	2/22-25/10 & earlier: N=2,400 adults nationwide, MoE ± 2.
					.
	2/22-25/10	37	36	27
	2/15-18/10	38	37	25
	2/8-11/10	39	38	23
	2/1-4/10	38	37	25
	1/25-28/10	37	39	24
	1/18-21/10	37	38	25
	1/11-14/10	38	37	25
	1/4-7/10	39	36	25

	12/27-31/09	38	35	27
	12/20-24/09	37	34	29
	12/14-17/09	36	34	30
	12/7-10/09	37	33	30
	11/30 - 12/3/09	36	32	32
	11/22-25/09	37	32	31
	11/16-19/09	37	31	32
	11/9-12/09	36	30	34
	11/2-5/09	35	30	35
	10/26-29/09	36	28	36
	10/19-22/09	37	28	35
	10/12-15/09	35	29	36
	10/5-8/09	34	28	38
	9/28 - 10/1/09	35	29	36
	9/21-24/09	33	27	40
	9/14-17/09	34	28	38
	9/7-10/09	33	28	39
	8/31 - 9/3/09	32	29	39
	8/24-27/09	34	28	38
	8/17-20/09	35	29	36
	8/10-13/09	36	28	36
	8/3-6/09	37	29	34
	7/27-30/09	39	29	32
	7/20-23/09	40	29	31
	7/13-16/09	42	28	30
	7/6-9/09	41	28	31
	6/29 - 7/2/09	42	29	29
	6/22-25/09	43	29	28
	6/15-18/09	44	30	26
	6/8-11/09	43	28	29
	5/31 - 6/4/09	41	27	32
	5/25-28/09	41	29	30
	5/18-21/09	42	30	28

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. March 16-17, 2010. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
					.
"If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate in your district or the Republican candidate in your district?" If unsure: "Well, if you had to vote, which way would you lean?" Options rotated
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Other (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	3/16-17/10	38	42	6	14

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). March 11, 13-14, 2010. N=846 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.4.
					.
"What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?"
					.
		Democrats	Republicans	Unsure
		%	%	%
	3/11, 13-14/10	45	42	13
	1/23-25/10	44	42	14
	1/10-14/10	41	41	18
	12/11-14/09	43	41	16
	10/22-25/09	46	38	16
	9/17-20/09	43	40	17
	7/24-27/09	46	39	15
	4/23-26/09	48	39	13
					.
"In the next election for U.S. Congress, do you feel that your representative deserves to be reelected, or do you think that it is time to give a new person a chance?"
					.
		Deserves Reelection	Time for New Person	Unsure
		%	%	%
	3/11, 13-14/10	38	51	11
	1/10-14/10	39	49	12
	12/11-14/09	38	49	13
	10/22-25/09	41	49	10
	9/17-20/09	40	49	11
	7/18-21/08	40	47	13

Gallup Poll. Weekly tracking of registered voters nationwide. Interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking.
				.
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?"
				.
		Democrat	Republican
		%	%
	3/8-15/10	47	44
	3/1-7/10	47	44

AP-GfK Poll conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media. March 3-8, 2010. N=1,002 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4.2.
					.
"Do you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?"
					.
		Democrats	Republicans	Don't Care (vol.)	Unsure	Refused
		%	%	%	%	%
	3/3-8/10	44	38	15	3	1
	1/12-17/10	49	37	10	3	1
					.
"Would you like to see your own member of Congress get reelected in November, or would you like to see someone else win the election?"
					.
		Own Member	Someone Else	Don't Care (vol.)	Unsure	Refused
		%	%	%	%	%
	3/3-8/10	40	49	7	4	1
	1/12-17/10	43	47	4	6	-

Ipsos/McClatchy Poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs. Feb. 26-28, 2010. N=1,076 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
					.
"I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?" If candidate from another party, don't plan to vote, or unsure: "If you had to choose, would you lean more towards the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?"
					.
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Candidate From Another Party (vol.)	Don't Plan To Vote (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/26-28/10	50	40	1	3	6
	10/29 - 11/1/09	48	41	2	3	6
					.
	Excludes leaners:
	8/27-31/09	42	34	5	7	12

McLaughlin & Associates (R). Feb. 24-25, 2010. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
					.
"If the election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today would you be more likely to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?"
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Unsure
		%	%	%
	2/24-25/10	35	42	23

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Feb. 23-24, 2010. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
					.
"Who do you want to win this year's congressional elections: the Democrats or the Republicans?" Options rotated
					.
		Democrats	Republicans	Neither (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	2/23-24/10	36	35	14	15
	2/2-3/10	36	41	11	12
	1/12-13/10	38	37	10	15

Democracy Corps/Third Way Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Feb. 20-24, 2010. N=851 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
					.
"I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections this November, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for [the Democratic candidate] or [the Republican candidate]?" Per Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research: "In the landline sample, the incumbent names were inserted preceded by party identification. Generic 'the Democratic candidate' or 'the Republican candidate' inserted for the opposition. For the cell phone sample and open seat districts, both candidates were given as generic."
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Other (vol.)	Unsure	Refused
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/20-24/10	44	47	1	7	1
	1/7-11/10	45	46	2	5	2
	11/12-16/09	47	45	2	6	1
	9/12-16/09	46	42	3	8	2
	8/30 - 9/1/09	47	43	2	7	2
	5/28 - 6/1/09	50	40	2	6	2
	5/10-12/09	46	44	3	5	2
	3/25-29/09	48	43	1	7	2

Public Opinion Strategies (R) for the Center for Health Transformation. Feb. 17-18, 20-21, 2010. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.3.
					.
"And, if the 2010 election for U.S. CONGRESS were being held today, for whom would you vote: the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate for Congress from this district?" If unsure: "Which way do you lean as of today, towards . . . ?" Options rotated
					.
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Unsure	Refused
		%	%	%	%
	2/17-18, 20-21/10	42	43	13	2

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Feb. 17-18, 2010. N=908 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.8.
					.
"To begin, suppose the elections for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY. Would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward the Republican or the Democrat running for Congress in your district?" Options rotated
					.
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Unsure
		%	%	%
	2/17-18/10	45	43	12

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Feb. 12-15, 2010. N=954 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all registered voters).
					.
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?" If unsure: "As of today, who do you lean more toward?"
					.
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Neither (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	2/12-15/10	45	47	6	2
	1/8-10/10	45	48	6	1
	11/13-15/09	49	43	6	3
	10/30 - 11/1/09	50	44	5	2
					.
"Please tell me whether you think each of the following political officeholders deserves to be reelected or not. . . ."
					.
		Deserves Reelection	Does Not Deserve Reelection	Unsure	.
		%	%	%	.
					.
	"The U.S. representative in your congressional district" Half sample (Form A)
	2/12-15/10	51	44	4	.
					.
	"Most members of Congress" Half sample (Form A)
	2/12-15/10	34	63	3	.
					.
	"Most Democratic members of Congress" Half sample (Form B)
	2/12-15/10	41	56	3	.
					.
	"Most Republican members of Congress" Half sample (Form B)
	2/12-15/10	41	56	3	.
					.
"Now suppose the elections for Congress were being held today and a third candidate were running who was endorsed by the Tea Party movement. Which candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic Party's candidate, the Republican Party's candidate, or the Tea Party's candidate?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward . . . ?" Options rotated
					.
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Tea Party Candidate	Other (vol.)	Won't Vote (Vol.)/Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/12-15/10	45	33	16	3	3

CBS News/New York Times Poll. Feb. 5-10, 2010. N=1,084 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
					.
"Do you think most members of Congress have done a good enough job to deserve reelection, or do you think it's time to give new people a chance?"
					.
		Deserve Reelection	Give New People a Chance	Depends on Candidates (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	2/5-10/10	8	81	6	5

Pew Research Center survey. Feb. 3-9, 2010. N=1,129 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
					.
"If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If "other" or "unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to the Republican or the Democrat?"
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Unsure
		%	%	%
	2/3-9/10	45	42	13
	1/6-10/10	46	44	10
	10/28 - 11/8/09	47	42	11
	8/20-27/09	45	44	10
					.
"Would you like to see your representative in Congress be reelected in the next congressional election, or not?"
					.
		Yes	No	Rep. Not Running (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	2/3-9/10	49	31	-	19
	10/28 - 11/8/09	52	29	1	18
					.
"Regardless of how you feel about your own representative, would you like to see most members of Congress reelected in next year's congressional election, or not?"
					.
		Yes	No	Unsure
		%	%	%
	2/3-9/10	32	53	15
	10/28 - 11/8/09	34	53	13

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Feb. 4-8, 2010. N=1,004 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.5 (for all adults).
					.
"Thinking about politics: Right now, are you inclined to vote to reelect your representative in Congress in the next election or are you inclined to look around for someone else to vote for?"
						.
		Reelect	Look Around	Depends (vol.)	Unsure	.
		%	%	%	%	.
	2/4-8/10	36	56	4	4	.
	11/12-15/09	38	50	6	5	.
					.
"If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives in November were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district?" If other/unsure: "Would you lean toward the Democratic candidate or toward the Republican candidate?" Options rotated. RV = registered voters.
						.
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other (vol.)	Neither (vol.)	Will Not Vote (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%	%
	2/4-8/10 RV	45	48	-	3	-	4
	10/15-18/09	51	39	1	3	2	5
					.
"Generally would you say your mood is anti-incumbent, meaning you're inclined to vote for challengers who are running for public office, or would you say your mood is pro-incumbent, meaning you're inclined to vote to reelect people already in public office?"
						.
		Anti- Incumbent	Pro- Incumbent	Neither (vol.)	Unsure	.
		%	%	%	%	.
	2/4-8/10	48	35	12	5	.
	8/3-6/06	53	29	13	4	.
	6/94	54	29	13	4	.

Franklin & Marshall College/Hearst Television poll. Feb. 2-8, 2010. N=769 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
					.
"If the 2010 elections for the United States House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for the House in your district?"
					.
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other Candidate (vol.)	Would Not Vote	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/2-8/10	35	39	4	1	22
	9/15-21/09	43	30	4	1	22

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Feb. 2-3, 2010. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all registered voters).
					.
"Right now, how interested are you in the November elections: extremely interested, very interested, somewhat interested, or not at all interested?"
					.
		Extremely Interested	Very Interested	Somewhat Interested	Not at All Interested	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	ALL	28	29	32	10	1
	Democrats	22	28	40	10	-
	Republicans	38	32	22	8	-
	Independents	22	28	36	14	1

Gallup Poll. Feb. 1-3, 2010. N=942 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.
					.
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" Options rotated
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Other (vol.)/ Unsure	.
		%	%	%	.
	2/1-3/10	45	45	10	.
	1/8-10/10	48	45	8	.
	12/11-13/09	48	45	8	.
	11/5-8/09	44	48	9	.
	10/1-4/09	46	44	10	.
	7/10-12/09	50	44	7	.

Marist College Marist Poll. Feb. 1-3, 2010. N=910 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
					.
"If the 2010 election for Congress were held today, would you support your current congressperson who represents your district in Washington, D.C., or would you vote for someone else?"
					.
		Current	Someone Else	Unsure
		%	%	%
	2/1-3/10	42	44	14
	12/2, 3 & 7/09	51	37	12

National Public Radio Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Jan. 20-21, 23, 2010. N=800 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
					.
"If the 2010 elections for United States Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote: the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in this district?" If unsure: "Well, if the election for Congress were held today and you had to decide right now in your own district where you live, which candidate would you lean (sic): the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?" Options rotated
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Unsure	Refused
		%	%	%	%
	1/20-21, 23/10	39	44	16	1

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Jan. 20, 2010. N=1,010 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4.
					.
"Do you think the country would be better off if the Republicans controlled Congress, or if the Democrats controlled Congress?"
					.
		Democrats	Republicans	Neither (vol.)	Same (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	1/20/10	40	36	13	2	9

McLaughlin & Associates (R) for the National Review Institute. Jan. 19-20, 2010. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
					.
"If the election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today would you be more likely to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?"
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Unsure
		%	%	%
	1/19-20/10	37	42	21
					.
"If the Tea Party movement organized itself into a political party and the election for U.S. Congress in your district were held today, would you be more likely to vote for the Republican candidate, the Democratic candidate or the Tea Party candidate?"
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Tea Party Candidate	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	1/19-20/10	31	26	8	36
					.
"In the next election for U.S. Congress, do you feel that your representative has performed his or her job well enough to deserve reelection, or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance?"
					.
		Deserves Reelection	Give New Person a Chance	Unsure
		%	%	%
	1/19-20/10	41	45	14

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Jan. 12-13, 2010. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
					.
"Do you think it would be good or bad for the country if all the current members of Congress were voted out of office -- including your own representative -- and all new people were elected this November to get a fresh start?"
					.
		Good	Bad	No Difference (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	1/12-13/10	43	44	6	6

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Jan. 8-10, 2010. N=955 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
					.
"How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for Congress this year: extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?"
					.
		Extremely	Very	Somewhat	Not Too	Not at All
		%	%	%	%	%
	1/8-10/10	20	20	35	16	10
	Democrats	13	18	42	17	10
	Republicans	25	24	30	14	7
					.
	10/30 - 11/1/09	22	20	32	16	9
	Democrats	17	25	34	17	6
	Republicans	26	17	33	16	8

George Washington University Battleground Poll conducted by the Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D). Dec. 6-9, 2009. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
					.
"If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate, in your congressional district?" If unsure: "And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?" Options rotated
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Unsure	.
		%	%	%	.
	12/6-9/09	40	42	18	.
	7/19-23/09	43	40	17	.

Bloomberg Poll conducted by Selzer & Co. Dec. 3-7, 2009. N=1,004 adults nationwide (MoE ± 3.1), including 714 likely voters. LV = likely voters
					.
"If the election for members of the U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in the district where you live, or would you likely not vote?"
					.
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Would Not Vote	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	12/3-7/09 LV	38	42	4	16
	12/3-7/09	36	35	14	15
					.
	9/10-14/09	40	32	15	13

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Dec. 2-3, 2009. N=1,041 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
					.
"Do you think the country would be better off if the Republicans controlled Congress, or if the Democrats controlled Congress?"
					.
		Democrats	Republicans	Neither (vol.)	Same (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	12/2-3/09	40	39	16	3	2
	7/31 - 8/3/09	44	34	15	4	3
	4/3-5/09	49	34	11	3	2
	1/12-15/09	56	31	10	3	1

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2009. N=952 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
					.
"Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who supports President Obama, or more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes President Obama?"
					.
		Supports Obama	Opposes Obama	No Difference (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	10/30 - 11/1/09	54	41	4	1

CBS News Poll. Oct. 5-8, 2009. N=829 adults nationwide. Results below are among registered voters.
					.
"If the 2010 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?"
						.
		Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Other (vol.)	Won't Vote (vol.)	Depends (vol.)	Unsure/ No answer
		%	%	%	%	%	%
	ALL	46	33	1	1	14	5
	Republicans	3	80	1	1	12	3
	Democrats	87	4	0	0	6	3
	Independents	37	28	2	1	22	10

National Public Radio Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). July 22-26, 2009. N=850 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.4.
					.
"I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?"
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Other (vol.)	Unsure	Refused
		%	%	%	%	%
	7/22-26/09	42	43	3	10	2

Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by FD. July 9-13, 2009. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
					.
"Thinking about the next elections for U.S. Congress in 2010, if the elections for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?" Options rotated
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Neither (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	7/9-13/09	39	32	7	23
	6/4-7/09	39	30	5	26
	4/23-26/09	39	31	6	24
	3/26-29/09	37	32	9	21
	2/28 - 3/2/09	40	34	7	19
	1/21-24/09	46	22	5	27

Quinnipiac University Poll. June 23-29, 2009. N=3,063 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 1.8.
					.
"If the 2010 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?"
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Someone Else (vol.)	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/23-29/09	42	34	2	1	21
	5/26 - 6/1/09	42	32	2	1	22
	4/21-27/09	41	34	1	1	22

Moore Information (R). May 5-7, 2009. N=800 registered voters nationwide.
					.
"Looking ahead, if the election for Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate?" If unsure: "As of today, which way do you lean?"
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Unsure
		%	%	%
	5/5-7/09	42	35	23

Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll. April 19-21, 2009. N=800 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
					.
"If the 2010 election for U.S. Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote: the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate for Congress from this district?"
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Unsure	Refused
		%	%	%	%
	4/19-21/09	41	37	21	2

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. April 8-11, 2009. N=833 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5 (for all registered voters).
					.
"Regardless of how you might plan to vote in your own district, which party would you like to see in control of Congress after the congressional elections in 2010: the Democrats or the Republicans?" If other/unsure: "Well, which way do you lean -- more toward the Democrats or the Republicans?" Options rotated
					.
		Democrats In Control	Republicans In Control	Other (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	ALL	49	38	5	8
	Republicans	4	92	1	2
	Independents	42	30	11	17
	Democrats	93	3	1	4

National Public Radio Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). March 10-12, 14, 2009. N=800 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
					.
"If the 2010 elections for United States Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote: the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in this district?" If unsure: "Well, if the election for Congress were held today and you had to decide right now in your own district where you live which candidate would you lean toward: the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?" Options rotated
					.
		Democrat	Republican	Unsure	Refused
		%	%	%	%
	3/10-12, 14/09	42	42	15	1